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Use Inflation to Your Benefit
Wednesday July 16, 2008 10:15 am ET
ByBill Trent, RealMoney.com Contributor

According to a release Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, producer prices increased by 1.8% in June, above the range forecast by economists. Prices have risen 9.2% over the last 12 months. The core reading came in slightly below consensus, which Tony Crescenzi labeled "better but bad."

I'll take Tony's word on that. For a stock-picker like me, government economic reports do more than just indicate the state of the economy. I like to examine the industry-level data to see if there are specific industries to consider more closely as investment opportunities. I found several that I think are worthy of consideration.

Expanding Gases

Industrial gas manufacturers saw price increases of 18.1% in June compared to the year-ago month. And if that wasn't enough, Praxair raised prices again July 1, Airgas announced another significant price hike effective Aug. 1, and Air Products boosted surcharges.

A few of my fellow contributors have already weighed in on these stocks -- Jim Cramer says both Airgas and Air Products are set to benefit as oil drillers inject wells with carbon dioxide to boost production, and John Reese says Airgas has the right formula.

Tractors Are Running Hot

Rising food prices has brought rising demand for farm equipment. This has kept farm machinery inflation rates well above the long-term average and should benefit industry leaders Deere , Agco and CNH Global . Unfortunately, the analyst community may have gotten ahead of the news a bit, as all three major manufacturers missed earnings or issued disappointing guidance in the latest quarter.

Of course, the disappointing numbers caused the stocks to come down sharply, with declines of about 40% over the last three months. Given that the earnings estimates have only been reduced by 2% to 5%, the selloff looks overdone to me.

Turbines on a Whirlwind Run

Another hot area was turbines and turbine generators, which saw price increases of 7.6% year over year in June. Unfortunately, many of the names in this sector are overseas and do not have an ADR, or are conglomerates such as General Electric or Siemens . However, the recently introduced wind energy ETF -- First Trust Global Wind Energy -- offers exposure to many of the top names.

Aircraft Parts Are Flying High

Prices for aircraft parts and equipment are also registering gains that are at the high end of the historic range. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise, as I noticed in last month's durable goods report that the defense aircraft industry had seen a huge upsurge in sales and new orders.

Other industries that are doing well include some that I have written about in prior months. Rather than rehash the same news, I'll simply direct you to the prior columns. These include steel, chemicals and petroleum refineries, as well as food packagers and railroads.

The usual caveats apply: These ideas should be viewed as an initial screen and require further research. They also may not be suitable for every investor's portfolio.

It looks like we're stuck with rising prices for the time being, so I'll continue to try to profit from them. Thanks to these stock tips courtesy of Uncle Sam, I have plenty of ideas to choose from.


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At the time of publication, Trent had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.

William A. Trent, CFA, is a freelance equity analyst based in the New York metro area. He has been an equity analyst since 1996 and is co-author of Understanding and Evaluating Prospectuses, Offering Documents, and Proxy Statements. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Trent appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.


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