The
Ups and Downs of Home PricesBusinessWeek Online While
some once-hot metro markets like Las Vegas are showing signs of cooling, others are still on the upside of the boom. Phoenix, which was slow to catch fire, actually saw accelerating price gains this year -- at least up through the third quarter. The
following tables are from an analysis by David Stiff, chief economist of Fiserv CSW, of single-family home price data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Included in the tables are only those metro areas that had at least 15% price increases from the first quarter of 2004 through the first quarter of 2005. The first table shows markets that subsequently slowed, while the second shows ones that got even hotter through the July-to-September quarter. | WHERE PRICE INCREASES SLOWED... |
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| Metro area | Change
from Q1, 2004, to Q1, 2005 | Annualized rate of change from Q1, 2005, to Q3, 2005 | Percentage point change in annual rate of increase | | Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. | 34.7% | 14.4% | -20.3% | | San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. | 25.9% | 9.1% | -16.8% | | Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif. | 28.4% | 13.1% | -15.3% | | Salinas, Calif. | 32.0% | 19.8% | -12.1% | | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. | 29.8% | 20.4% | -9.3% | | Reno-Sparks, Nev. | 32.8% | 23.5% | -9.3% | | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. | 25.0% | 16.4% | -8.6% | | Bakersfield, Calif. | 34.8% | 26.8% | -8.0% | | Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif. | 25.5% | 18.5% | -7.1% | | Ocean City, N.J. | 20.8% | 14.2% | -6.6% | | San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif. | 22.9% | 16.3% | -6.6% | | Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif. | 26.9% | 20.5% | -6.4% | | Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y. | 17.3% | 11.4% | -5.9% | | Hanford-Corcoran, Calif. | 30.3% | 24.9% | -5.5% | | Norwich-New London, Conn. | 16.4% | 11.0% | -5.4% | | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. | 27.0% | 21.6% | -5.3% | | Panama City-Lynn Haven, Fla. | 31.1% | 27.0% | -4.2% | | El Centro, Calif. | 32.0% | 28.0% | -4.0% | | Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, R.I.-Mass. | 15.9% | 12.2% | -3.7% | | Visalia-Porterville, Calif. | 33.4% | 29.9% | -3.5% | | Springfield, Mass. | 15.3% | 12.2% | -3.1% | | Yuba City, Calif. | 27.2% | 24.0% | -3.1% | | Stockton, Calif. | 29.3% | 26.5% | -2.8% | | Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla. | 31.9% | 29.2% | -2.6% | | Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. | 16.4% | 13.9% | -2.4% | | Fresno, Calif. | 27.4% | 25.0% | -2.4% | | Newark-Union, N.J.-Pa. | 16.2% | 13.9% | -2.4% | | Santa Rosa-Petaluma, Calif. | 21.7% | 19.7% | -2.0% | | Madera, Calif. | 28.1% | 26.4% | -1.7% | | San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. | 18.7% | 17.0% | -1.6% | | Kingston, N.Y. | 16.9% | 15.4% | -1.5% | | Edison, N.J. | 16.9% | 16.1% | -0.9% | | Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif. | 23.3% | 22.6% | -0.7% | | Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif. | 20.0% | 19.3% | -0.7% | | Camden, N.J. | 16.8% | 16.4% | -0.4% | | Gainesville, Fla. | 17.8% | 17.6% | -0.3% | | Napa, Calif. | 21.9% | 21.6% | -0.3% | | | | | ...AND
WHERE THEY ACCELERATED | | Metro area | Change from Q1, 2004, to Q1, 2005 | Annualized rate of change from Q1, 2005, to Q3, 2005 | Percentage point change in annual rate of increase | | Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. | 21.7% | 46.0% | 24.3% | | St. George, Utah | 19.4% | 42.7% | 23.3% | | Lakeland, Fla. | 15.5% | 37.7% | 22.2% | | Tucson, Ariz. | 16.5% | 34.9% | 18.3% | | Orlando, Fla. | 20.0% | 37.6% | 17.5% | | Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. | 25.1% | 41.7% | 16.6% | | Naples-Marco Island, Fla. | 25.4% | 41.7% | 16.3% | | Prescott, Ariz. | 20.5% | 35.0% | 14.5% | | Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla. | 22.2% | 32.9% | 10.7% | | Vero Beach, Fla. | 28.1% | 38.7% | 10.6% | | Ocala, Fla. | 20.0% | 30.4% | 10.4% | | Yuma,
Ariz. | 26.8% | 36.5% | 9.7% | | Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. | 23.1% | 32.1% | 9.0% | | Coeur d'Alene, Idaho | 25.5% | 34.2% | 8.7% | | Flagstaff, Ariz.-Utah | 21.2% | 29.7% | 8.5% | | Dover, Del. | 15.8% | 24.3% | 8.4% | | Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. | 24.6% | 32.4% | 7.7% | | Jacksonville, Fla. | 15.6% | 22.9% | 7.3% | | Bremerton-Silverdale, Wash. | 16.5% | 23.6% | 7.0% | | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. | 19.7% | 26.7% | 6.9% | | Honolulu, Hawaii | 22.4% | 29.3% | 6.9% | | Eugene-Springfield, Ore. | 15.2% | 21.9% | 6.7% | | Punta Gorda, Fla. | 24.5% | 30.4% | 5.9% | | Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla. | 22.3% | 28.1% | 5.8% | | Redding, Calif. | 21.7% | 27.3% | 5.6% | | Bellingham, Wash. | 19.5% | 24.3% | 4.8% | | Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y. | 15.9% | 20.6% | 4.7% | | Winchester, Va.-W.Va. | 22.9% | 27.5% | 4.6% | | Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, Fla. | 26.9% | 31.3% | 4.4% | | Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, N.J. | 19.4% | 23.8% | 4.4% | | Merced, Calif. | 28.8% | 33.0% | 4.2% | | Tacoma, Wash. | 15.9% | 20.1% | 4.1% | | Hagerstown-Martinsburg, Md.-W.Va. | 22.0% | 26.1% | 4.1% | | Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, Fla. | 27.4% | 31.4% | 4.0% | | West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla. | 26.9% | 30.9% | 4.0% | | Atlantic City, N.J. | 18.4% | 22.3% | 3.8% | | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. | 18.7% | 22.3% | 3.6% | | Wilmington, Del.-Md.-N.J. | 15.4% | 19.0% | 3.6% | | Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. | 23.1% | 26.4% | 3.2% | | Modesto, Calif. | 27.0% | 30.1% | 3.1% | | Trenton-Ewing, N.J. | 17.1% | 20.2% | 3.1% | | Tallahassee, Fla. | 16.7% | 19.5% | 2.8% | | Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin, Fla. | 33.6% | 36.4% | 2.8% | | Charlottesville, Va. | 17.4% | 19.8% | 2.4% | | Carson City, Nev. | 27.5% | 29.4% | 1.9% | | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. | 24.2% | 25.9% | 1.8% | | Chico, Calif. | 21.4% | 23.2% | 1.8% | | Salisbury, Md. | 21.0% | 22.8% | 1.7% | | Casper, Wyo. | 15.0% | 16.3% | 1.3% | | Oakland-Fremont-Hayward,
Calif. | 22.8% | 23.9% | 1.2% | | Harrisonburg, Va. | 18.0% | 19.0% | 1.0% | | New York-Wayne-White Plains, N.Y.-N.J. | 16.3% | 17.0% | 0.7% | | Bethesda-Frederick-Gaithersburg, Md. | 22.0% | 22.5% | 0.5% | | Burlington-South Burlington, Vt. | 15.4% | 15.6% | 0.2% | | Baltimore-Towson, Md. | 21.6% | 21.7% | 0.2% | | Medford, Ore. | 25.0% | 25.1% | 0.1% | | Philadelphia, Pa. | 16.0% | 16.1% | 0.1% | | | Data: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Fiserv CSW Inc. |
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