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AVP > SEC Filings for AVP > Form 10-K on 28-Feb-2013All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-K for AVON PRODUCTS INC


28-Feb-2013

Annual Report


ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS ("MD&A")
(In millions, except per share and share data)
You should read the following discussion of the results of operations and financial condition of Avon Products, Inc. and its majority and wholly owned subsidiaries in conjunction with the information contained in the Consolidated Financial Statements and related Notes contained in our 2012 Annual Report. When used in this discussion, the terms "Avon," "Company," "we," "our" or "us" mean, unless the context otherwise indicates, Avon Products, Inc. and its majority and wholly owned subsidiaries.
Refer to the Non-GAAP Financial Measures section on pages 23 through 24 of this 2012 Annual Report for a description of how Constant dollar ("Constant $") growth rates (a Non-GAAP financial measure) are determined. Overview
We are a global manufacturer and marketer of beauty and related products. Our business is conducted worldwide, primarily in the direct-selling channel. We presently have sales operations in 65 countries and territories, including the United States ("U.S."), and distribute products in 43 more. Our reportable segments are based on geographic operations and include commercial business units in Latin America; Europe, Middle East & Africa; North America; and Asia Pacific. Our product categories are Beauty, Fashion and Home. Beauty consists of color cosmetics, fragrances, skin care and personal care. Fashion consists of jewelry, watches, apparel, footwear, accessories and children's products. Home consists of gift and decorative products, housewares, entertainment and leisure products, children's products and nutritional products. Sales are made to the ultimate consumer principally through direct selling by more than 6 million active independent Representatives, who are independent contractors and not our employees. The success of our business is highly dependent on recruiting, retaining and servicing our Representatives. During 2012, approximately 85% of our consolidated revenue was derived from operations outside the U.S. Total revenue in 2012 declined 5% due to unfavorable foreign exchange. Constant $ revenue was relatively unchanged, as a 1% increase in average order was offset by a 1% decline in Active Representatives. Sales of products in the Beauty category decreased 5% primarily due to unfavorable foreign exchange, and increased 1% on a Constant $ basis. Sales of products in the Fashion category decreased 5%, or 2% on a Constant $ basis. Sales of products in the Home category decreased 4% primarily due to unfavorable foreign exchange, and increased 2% on a Constant $ basis.
Our Constant $ revenue was impacted by improvements in Latin America, particularly in Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela; however, these improvements were offset by net declines in other regions. In Europe, Middle East & Africa we saw a revenue decline in the United Kingdom that partially reflects a continued weak macroeconomic environment, competition, and executional challenges. In addition, North America experienced challenging financial results, partially as a result of the ongoing impact of field transformation and redistricting in the U.S. Asia Pacific's revenue decline was primarily due to continuing weak performance of our China operations.
See the "Segment Review" section of this MD&A for additional information related to changes in revenue by segment.
We recently outlined initial steps toward achieving a cost-savings target of $400 before taxes by the end of 2015. In connection with this cost-savings target, on December 11, 2012, we announced initial steps of a cost savings initiative (the "$400M Cost Savings Initiative"), in an effort to stabilize the business and return Avon to sustainable growth. The $400M Cost Savings Initiative includes a global headcount reduction and related actions, as well as our exit from the South Korea and Vietnam markets. As part of the $400M Cost Savings Initiative, we identified certain actions in the fourth quarter of 2012, the majority of which are expected to take effect in 2013, that we believe will accelerate top line growth and reduce costs. As a result of these actions, we recorded total costs to implement these various restructuring initiatives of $50.7 before taxes associated with approved initiatives. For the initiatives approved to date, we expect our total costs to implement to be in the range of $70 to $80 before taxes. At this time we are unable to quantify the total costs when the initiative is fully implemented. In connection with the initial steps of the $400M Cost Savings Initiative, we expect to realize annualized savings of approximately $70 before taxes.
In an effort to improve operating performance, we identified certain actions in 2012, not associated with the $400M Cost Savings Initiative and 2005 and 2009 Restructuring Programs, that we believe will enhance our operating model, reduce costs, and improve efficiencies. As a result of the analysis and the actions taken, we recorded total costs to implement of $73.9 before taxes in 2012. In connection with these actions, effective in the second quarter of 2012, Central & Eastern Europe and Western Europe, Middle East & Africa are being managed as a single operating segment. Accordingly, Europe, Middle East & Africa amounts include the results of Central & Eastern Europe and Western Europe, Middle East & Africa for all periods


presented. In connection with these actions, we expect to realize operating profit benefits of approximately $40 annually and cash flow benefits of approximately $35 after taxes annually beginning in 2013, which will likely be a mitigating factor against inflationary cost pressures.
Refer to Note 15, Restructuring Initiatives on pages F-43 through F-46 of our 2012 Annual Report for further information.
In conjunction with organizational changes, effective in the second quarter of 2012, the Dominican Republic was included in Latin America whereas in prior periods it had been included in North America. The impact was not material to either segment. Accordingly, the results of the Dominican Republic are included in Latin America and excluded from North America for all periods presented. As part of an overall review of our capital structure, on November 1, 2012, we announced a decrease in our quarterly cash dividend to $.06 per share from $.23 per share, for the fourth-quarter dividend paid in December 2012. We have maintained the dividend of $.06 for the first quarter of 2013.
As a result of the 32% devaluation of the Venezuelan currency in February 2013, our 2013 operating margin will be negatively impacted. As a result, we expect the Company's operating profit to be negatively impacted primarily in the first half of 2013 by approximately $50 of costs associated with the historical cost in U.S. dollars of nonmonetary assets. In addition to the negative impact to operating margin, as a result of the devaluation of the Venezuelan currency, during the first quarter of 2013 we expect to record net charges of approximately $34 in "Other expense, net" and approximately $16 in "Income taxes", reflecting the write-down of monetary assets and liabilities and deferred tax benefits. Refer to further discussion of Venezuela in the "Segment Review - Latin America" section of this MD&A. New Accounting Standards
Information relating to new accounting standards is included in Note 2, New Accounting Standards, to our consolidated financial statements contained in this 2012 Annual Report.
Performance Metrics
Within this MD&A, in addition to our key financial metrics of revenue, operating profit and operating margin, we utilize the performance metrics defined below to assist in the evaluation of our business.

Performance Metrics                             Definition

Growth in Active         This metric is based on the number of orders in a
Representatives          campaign, totaled for all campaigns in the related
                         period. This amount is divided by the number of billing
                         days in the related period, to exclude the impact of
                         year-to-year changes in billing days (for example,
                         holiday schedules). To determine the growth in Active
                         Representatives, this calculation is compared to the
                         same calculation in the corresponding period of the
                         prior year.

Change in Units          This metric is based on the gross number of pieces of
                         merchandise sold during a period, as compared to the
                         same number in the same period of the prior year. Units
                         sold include samples sold and products contingent upon
                         the purchase of another product (for example, gift with
                         purchase or discount purchase with purchase), but
                         exclude free samples.

Inventory Days           This metric is equal to the number of days of cost of
                         sales, based on the average of the preceding 12 months,
                         covered by the inventory balance at the end of the
                         period.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures
To supplement our financial results presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States ("GAAP"), we disclose operating results that have been adjusted to exclude the impact of changes due to the translation of foreign currencies into U.S. dollars, including changes in: revenue, operating profit, adjusted Non-GAAP operating profit, operating margin, and adjusted Non-GAAP operating margin. We refer to these adjusted financial measures as Constant $ items, which are Non-GAAP financial measures. We believe these measures provide investors an additional perspective on trends. To exclude the impact of changes due to the translation of foreign currencies into U.S. dollars, we calculate current year results and prior year results at a constant exchange rate. Currency impact is determined as the difference between actual growth rates and constant currency growth rates.
We also present gross margin, selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue, net global expenses, operating profit, operating margin and effective tax rate on a Non-GAAP basis. The discussion of our segments presents


operating profit and operating margin on a Non-GAAP basis. We have provided a quantitative reconciliation of the difference between the Non-GAAP financial measure and the financial measure calculated and reported in accordance with GAAP. The Company uses the Non-GAAP financial measures to evaluate its operating performance and believes that it is meaningful for investors to be made aware of, on a period-to-period basis, the impacts of 1) costs to implement ("CTI") restructuring initiatives, 2) the goodwill and intangible assets charges related to Silpada and the goodwill charge related to China (each an "Impairment charge," and collectively, "Impairment charges"), 3) costs and charges related to Venezuela being designated as a highly inflationary economy and the subsequent devaluation of its currency in January 2010, as well as the benefit related to the release of a provision associated with the excess cost of acquiring U.S. dollars in Venezuela ("Venezuelan special items"), and 4) the additional provision for income taxes as we are no longer asserting that the undistributed earnings of foreign subsidiaries are indefinitely reinvested ("Special tax items"). The Company believes investors find the Non-GAAP information helpful in understanding the ongoing performance of operations separate from items that may have a disproportionate positive or negative impact on the Company's financial results in any particular period.
The Impairment charges include the impact on the Statement of Income caused by the goodwill and intangible assets impairment charges related to Silpada in 2012 and 2011 and the goodwill impairment charge related to China in 2012. The Venezuelan special items include the impact on the Statement of Income caused by the devaluation of the Venezuelan currency on monetary assets and liabilities, such as cash, receivables and payables; deferred tax assets and liabilities; and nonmonetary assets, such as inventory and prepaid expenses. For nonmonetary assets, the Venezuelan special items include the earnings impact caused by the difference between the historical cost of the assets at the previous official exchange rate of 2.15 and the revised official exchange rate of 4.30. The Venezuelan special items also include the impact on the Statement of Income caused by the release of a provision associated with the excess cost of acquiring U.S. dollars in Venezuela at the regulated market rate as compared to the official exchange rate. The Special tax items include the impact on the Statement of Income in 2012 caused by an additional provision for income taxes as we are no longer asserting that the undistributed earnings of foreign subsidiaries are indefinitely reinvested. During the fourth quarter of 2012, we determined that the Company may repatriate offshore cash to meet certain domestic funding needs.
See Note 15, Restructuring Initiatives on pages F-43 through F-46 of our 2012 Annual Report, Note 17, Goodwill and Intangible Assets on pages F-49 through F-51 of our 2012 Annual Report, the "Segment Review - Latin America" section below, and Note 7, Income Taxes on pages F-21 through F-24 of our 2012 Annual Report for more information on these items.
These Non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation, or as a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP.

Critical Accounting Estimates
We believe the accounting policies described below represent our critical accounting policies due to the estimation processes involved in each. See Note 1, Description of the Business and Summary of Significant Accounting Policies, on pages F-10 through F-15 of our 2012 Annual Report for a detailed discussion of the application of these and other accounting policies. Restructuring Reserves
We record the estimated expense for our restructuring initiatives when such costs are deemed probable and estimable, when approved by the appropriate corporate authority and by accumulating detailed estimates of costs for such plans. These expenses include the estimated costs of employee severance and related benefits, impairment or accelerated depreciation of property, plant and equipment, and any other qualifying exit costs. These estimated costs are grouped by specific projects within the overall plan and are then monitored on a quarterly basis by finance personnel. Such costs represent our best estimate, but require assumptions about the programs that may change over time, including attrition rates. Estimates are evaluated periodically to determine whether an adjustment is required.
Allowances for Doubtful Accounts Receivable Representatives contact their customers, selling primarily through the use of brochures for each sales campaign. Sales campaigns are generally for a two-week duration in the U.S. and a two- to four-week duration outside the U.S. The Representative purchases products directly from us and may or may not sell them to an end user. In general, the Representative, an independent contractor, remits a payment to us during each sales campaign, which relates to the prior campaign cycle. The Representative is generally precluded from submitting an order for the current sales campaign until the accounts receivable balance for the prior campaign is paid; however, there are circumstances where the Representative fails to make the required payment. We record an estimate of an allowance for doubtful accounts on receivable balances based on an analysis of historical data and current circumstances, including selling schedules, business operations, seasonality and changing trends. Over the past three years, annual bad debt expense was $251 in 2012, $247 in 2011, and $216 in 2010, or approximately 2% of total revenue in each year. Bad debt expense as a percent of revenue increased by approximately .1 point in 2012 as compared to 2011,


primarily due to an increase in Europe, Middle East & Africa. The allowance for doubtful accounts is reviewed for adequacy, at a minimum, on a quarterly basis. We generally have no detailed information concerning, or any communication with, any end user of our products beyond the Representative. We have no legal recourse against the end user for the collection of any accounts receivable balances due from the Representative to us. If the financial condition of our Representatives were to deteriorate, resulting in an impairment of their ability to make payments, additional allowances may be required. Allowances for Sales Returns
Policies and practices for product returns vary by jurisdiction, but within many jurisdictions, we generally allow an unlimited right of return. We record a provision for estimated sales returns based on historical experience with product returns. Over the past three years, annual sales returns were $390 for 2012, $447 for 2011, and $424 for 2010, or approximately 4% of total revenue in each year, which has been generally in line with our expectations. If the historical data we use to calculate these estimates does not approximate future returns, due to changes in marketing or promotional strategies, or for other reasons, additional allowances may be required. Provisions for Inventory Obsolescence
We record an allowance for estimated obsolescence equal to the difference between the cost of inventory and the estimated market value. In determining the allowance for estimated obsolescence, we classify inventory into various categories based upon its stage in the product life cycle, future marketing sales plans and the disposition process. We assign a degree of obsolescence risk to products based on this classification to determine the level of obsolescence provision. If actual sales are less favorable than those projected, additional inventory allowances may need to be recorded for such additional obsolescence. Annual obsolescence expense was $122 for 2012, $128 for 2011, and $131 for 2010. Pension, Postretirement and Postemployment Expense We maintain defined benefit pension plans, which cover substantially all employees in the U.S. and a portion of employees in international locations. Additionally, we have unfunded supplemental pension benefit plans for some current and retired executives and provide retiree health care and life insurance benefits (through the end of 2012 only) subject to certain limitations to the majority of retired employees in the U.S. and certain foreign countries. See Note 12, Employee Benefit Plans, on pages F-32 through F-40 of our 2012 Annual Report for further information on our benefit plans.

Pension plan expense and the requirements for funding our major pension plans are determined based on a number of actuarial assumptions. These assumptions include the expected rate of return on pension plan assets, the interest crediting rate for hybrid plans and the discount rate applied to pension plan obligations.
For 2012, the weighted average assumed rate of return on all pension plan assets, including the U.S. and non-U.S. plans was 7.28%, compared to 7.54% for 2011. In determining the long-term rates of return, we consider the nature of the plans' investments, an expectation for the plans' investment strategies, historical rates of return and current economic forecasts. We evaluate the expected long-term rate of return annually and adjust as necessary. The majority of our pension plan assets relate to the U.S. pension plan. The assumed rate of return for 2012 for the U.S. plan was 7.75%, which was based on an asset allocation of approximately 35% in corporate and government bonds and mortgage-backed securities (which are expected to earn approximately 2% to 4% in the long term) and approximately 65% in equity securities and high yield securities (which are expected to earn approximately 6% to 10% in the long term). Historical rates of return on the assets of the U.S. plan were approximately 9% for the most recent 10-year period and approximately 8% for the 20-year period. In the U.S. plan, our asset allocation policy has favored U.S. equity securities, which have returned approximately 8% over the 10-year period and approximately 8% over the 20-year period. The rate of return on the plan assets in the U.S. was approximately 15% in 2012 and approximately 7% in 2011. Regulations under the Pension Protection Act of 2006, which are finalized but not yet effective, will require that hybrid plans limit the maximum interest crediting rate to one among several choices of crediting rates which are considered "market rates of return". The rate chosen will affect total pension obligations. The discount rate used for determining future pension obligations for each individual plan is based on a review of long-term bonds that receive a high-quality rating from a recognized rating agency. The discount rates for our more significant plans, including our U.S. plan, were based on the internal rates of return for a portfolio of high quality bonds with maturities that are consistent with the projected future benefit payment obligations of each plan. The weighted-average discount rate for U.S. and non-U.S. plans determined on this basis was 4.11% at December 31, 2012, and 4.69% at December 31, 2011. For the determination of the expected rate of return on assets and the discount rate, we take into consideration external actuarial advice.


Our funding requirements may be impacted by regulations or interpretations thereof. Our calculations of pension, postretirement and postemployment costs are dependent on the use of assumptions, including discount rates, hybrid plan maximum interest crediting rates and expected return on plan assets discussed above, rate of compensation increase of plan participants, interest cost, health care cost trend rates, benefits earned, mortality rates, the number of associate retirements, the number of associates electing to take lump-sum payments and other factors. Actual results that differ from assumptions are accumulated and amortized to expense over future periods and, therefore, generally affect recognized expense in future periods. At December 31, 2012, we had pretax actuarial losses, prior service credits, and transition obligations totaling $491 for the U.S. pension and postretirement plans and $313 for the non-U.S. pension and postretirement plans that have not yet been charged to expense. These actuarial losses have been charged to accumulated other comprehensive loss within shareholders' equity. While we believe that the assumptions used are reasonable, differences in actual experience or changes in assumptions may materially affect our pension, postretirement and postemployment obligations and future expense. For 2013, our assumption for the expected rate of return on assets is 7.75% for our U.S. plans and 6.85% for our non-U.S. plans. Our assumptions are reviewed and determined on an annual basis.
A 50 basis point change (in either direction) in the expected rate of return on plan assets, the discount rate or the rate of compensation increases, would have had approximately the following effect on 2012 pension expense and the pension benefit obligation at December 31, 2012:

                                  Increase/(Decrease) in       Increase/(Decrease) in
                                     Pension Expense             Pension Obligation
                                      50 Basis Point               50 Basis Point
                                 Increase       Decrease      Increase       Decrease
Rate of return on assets          $(5.2)          $5.2           N/A            N/A
Discount rate                     (11.2)          11.6        $(114.8)        $123.8
Rate of compensation increase       1.5           (1.4)          8.6           (8.3)

Taxes
At December 31, 2012, we recognized net deferred tax assets of $1,067, net of a valuation allowance of $627. We have gross deferred tax assets relating to tax loss carryforwards of $648 primarily from foreign jurisdictions, for which a valuation allowance of $610 has been provided. We record a valuation allowance to reduce our deferred tax assets to an amount that is more likely than not to be realized. While we have considered projected future taxable income and ongoing tax planning strategies in assessing the need for the valuation allowance, in the event we were to determine that we would be able to realize a net deferred tax asset in the future, in excess of the net recorded amount, an adjustment to the deferred tax asset would increase earnings in the period such determination was made. Likewise, should we determine that we would not be able to realize all or part of our net deferred tax asset in the future, an adjustment to the deferred tax asset would decrease earnings in the period such determination was made. We have recognized deferred tax assets of $356 relating to foreign tax credit carryforwards that will expire between 2018 and 2022. To the extent future taxable income is less favorable than currently projected, our ability to utilize these foreign tax credits may be affected and a valuation allowance may be required.
We recognize deferred income taxes with respect to the incremental U.S. taxes that would be incurred when undistributed earnings of a foreign subsidiary are subsequently repatriated, unless management has determined that those undistributed earnings are indefinitely reinvested for the foreseeable future. Prior to the fourth quarter of 2012, we had not recognized a deferred income tax liability related to the incremental U.S. taxes on approximately $2.5 billion of undistributed foreign earnings, as these earnings were deemed indefinitely reinvested. During the fourth quarter of 2012, as a result of the uncertainty of our financing arrangements and our domestic liquidity profile, we determined that we may repatriate offshore cash to meet certain domestic funding needs. Accordingly, we are no longer asserting that these undistributed earnings of foreign subsidiaries are indefinitely reinvested and have provided U.S. income taxes on such earnings. At December 31, 2012, we have a deferred income tax liability of $225 for the U.S. income taxes on the undistributed earnings of subsidiaries outside of the U.S. We have not recorded a U.S. income tax benefit on $159 of undistributed earnings of our subsidiary in Venezuela where local regulations restrict cash distributions. The actual tax cost of distributing these foreign earnings to the U.S. will depend on the amount and timing of the repatriation and the jurisdictions involved.
We recognize the benefit of a tax position if that position is more likely than not of being sustained on examination by the taxing authorities, based on the technical merits of the position. We believe that our assessment of more likely than not is reasonable, but because of the subjectivity involved and the unpredictable nature of the subject matter at issue, our assessment may prove ultimately to be incorrect, which could materially impact the Consolidated Financial Statements.
We file income tax returns in the U.S. federal jurisdiction, and various state and foreign jurisdictions. In 2013, a number of open tax years are scheduled to close due to the expiration of the statute of limitations and it is possible that a number of tax


examinations may be completed. If our tax positions are ultimately upheld or denied, it is possible that the 2013 provision for income taxes may reflect adjustments.
Share-based Compensation
Stock options issued to employees are recognized in the Consolidated Financial . . .

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