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AAP > SEC Filings for AAP > Form 10-K on 25-Feb-2013All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-K for ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC


25-Feb-2013

Annual Report


Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

The following discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with "Selected Consolidated Financial Data," our consolidated historical financial statements and the notes to those statements that appear elsewhere in this report. Our discussion contains forward-looking statements based upon current expectations that involve risks and uncertainties, such as our plans, objectives, expectations and intentions. Actual results and the timing of events could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those set forth under the sections entitled "Forward-Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" elsewhere in this report.

Our fiscal year ends on the Saturday nearest December 31st of each year, which results in an extra week every several years (the next 53 week fiscal year is 2014). Our first quarter consists of 16 weeks, and the other three quarters consist of 12 weeks.

Introduction

We are a leading specialty retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items primarily operating within the United States. Our stores carry an extensive product line for cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light trucks. We serve both DIY and Commercial customers. Our Commercial customers consist primarily of delivery customers for whom we deliver product from our store locations to our Commercial customers' places of business, including independent garages, service stations and auto dealers. At December 29, 2012, we operated 3,794 stores throughout 39 states, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

We operate in two reportable segments: Advance Auto Parts, or AAP, and Autopart International, or AI. The AAP segment is comprised of our store operations within the Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern and Midwestern (inclusive of South Central) regions of the United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. These stores operate under the trade name "Advance Auto Parts" except for certain stores in the state of Florida, which operate under the "Advance Discount Auto Parts" trade name. At December 29, 2012, we operated 3,576 stores in the AAP segment. Our AAP stores offer a broad selection of brand name and proprietary automotive replacement parts, accessories and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars and light trucks. Through our integrated operating approach, we serve our DIY and Commercial customers from our store locations and online at www.AdvanceAutoParts.com. Our online website allows our DIY customers to pick up merchandise at a conveniently located store or have their purchases shipped directly to their home or business. Our Commercial customers can conveniently place their orders online.

At December 29, 2012, we operated 218 stores in the AI segment under the "Autopart International" trade name. AI's business serves the Commercial market from its store locations primarily in the Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions of the United States.

Management Overview

We generated earnings per diluted share, or diluted EPS, of $5.22 during Fiscal 2012 compared to $5.11 for Fiscal 2011. The increase in our diluted EPS was driven by a lower average share count during Fiscal 2012, partially offset by a decrease in operating income. Throughout most of Fiscal 2012, our sales remained constrained, particularly in our colder weather markets, driven by the unseasonably warmer temperatures which has decreased the demand for failure and maintenance parts. The uncertainty in the U.S. economy also impacted our sales consistent with many other retailers, including our peer companies in the automotive aftermarket industry, as consumers faced high unemployment, fluctuating gas prices and low consumer confidence. In response to the difficult sales environment, we focused on providing better service to our Commercial customers and improving weekend staffing to better serve our DIY customers. Despite our lower performance in Fiscal 2012, we remain encouraged by (i) the long-term dynamics of the automotive aftermarket industry, (ii) initiatives that are underway in support of our strategies and (iii) our growth potential in the more fragmented and faster growing Commercial market.

While our operating income in Fiscal 2012 declined from the comparable period of last year, we generated a significant amount of operating cash flow to enable us to invest in capital projects and initiatives to support our strategies. As discussed later in the "Business and Industry Update," we remain committed to investing in our two key strategies - Superior Availability and Service Leadership.


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Fiscal 2012 Highlights

A high-level summary of our financial results and other highlights from our Fiscal 2012 include:

Financial

• Total sales during Fiscal 2012 increased 0.6% to $6,205.0 million as compared to Fiscal 2011, primarily driven by the addition of 132 net new stores partially offset by a 0.8% decrease in comparable store sales.

• Our operating income for Fiscal 2012 was $657.3 million, a decrease of $7.3 million from the comparable period in Fiscal 2011. As a percentage of total sales, operating income was 10.6%, a decrease of 18 basis points, due to the deleverage of our SG&A rate partially offset by a slightly higher gross profit rate.

• Our inventory balance as of December 29, 2012 increased $265.5 million, or 13.0%, over the prior year driven primarily by our inventory availability initiatives, including store upgrades, the opening of our new distribution center, continued expansion of our HUB network and new store growth.

• We generated operating cash flow of $685.3 million during Fiscal 2012, a decrease of 17.3% compared to Fiscal 2011, with the largest portion of the decrease consisting of an increase in accounts receivable resulting from the in-sourcing of our Commercial credit program.

Other

• In January 2012 we issued $300 million of senior unsecured notes, due in 2022, with an interest rate of 4.50%.

• We opened our tenth distribution center in Remington, IN which will provide needed warehouse capacity and upgraded supply chain technology.

• We in-sourced our Commercial credit function and rolled out our MotoLogicฎ diagnostic and repair resource to support the continued investment in our Commercial business.

Subsequent to Fiscal 2012, we completed the acquisition of B.W.P. Distributors, Inc., a leading Commercial provider in the Northeast.

Refer to the "Results of Operations" and "Liquidity" sections for further details of our income statement and cash flow results, respectively.

Business Update

Our two key strategies, Superior Availability and Service Leadership, remained unchanged in Fiscal 2012 and continue to serve as the foundation for all of the initiatives we undertake. Superior Availability is focused on consistently improving product availability and maximizing the speed, reliability and efficiency of our local market availability. Service Leadership relies on Superior Availability and a more consistent execution of serving our DIY and Commercial customers' needs whether in our stores or online. Through these two key strategies, we believe we can continue to build on the initiatives discussed below and produce favorable financial results over the long term. Sales to Commercial customers remain the biggest opportunity for us to increase our overall market share in the automotive aftermarket industry. Our Commercial sales, as a percentage of total sales, increased to 38% in Fiscal 2012 compared to 37% in Fiscal 2011.


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We believe our current initiatives are key for our long-term sales growth and improvement in our gross profit rate. Combined with our focus on balancing support and discretionary expenses with the additional cost of investments in our key strategies, we are committed to achieving our longer-term growth and profitability goals. As we enter Fiscal 2013, the key initiatives under our strategies include:

• Growing our Commercial business through improved delivery speed and reliability, increased customer retention and increased volume with national and regional accounts;

• Improving localized parts availability through the continued increase in number of HUBs, strengthened focus on key store availability and leveraging the advancement of our supply chain infrastructure;

• Accelerating our new store growth rate; and

• Continuing our focus on store execution through more effective scheduling, product on-hand accuracy, sales training and customer engagement.

Acquisition

On December 31, 2012, we acquired B.W.P. Distributors, Inc. ("BWP"), a privately held company that supplies, markets and distributes automotive aftermarket parts and products principally to Commercial customers. BWP operates or supplies 216 locations in the Northeastern United States. We believe this acquisition will enable us to continue our expansion in the competitive Northeast, which is a strategic growth area for us due to the large population and overall size of the market, and to gain valuable information to apply to our existing operations as a result of BWP's expertise in Commercial. As a result of this transaction, we will operate 124 BWP company-owned stores and two distribution centers. We will begin integrating the BWP locations in Fiscal 2013.

Automotive Aftermarket Industry

Operating within the automotive aftermarket industry, we are influenced by a number of general macroeconomic factors similar to those affecting the overall retail industry. These factors include, but are not limited to, fuel costs, unemployment rates, consumer confidence and competition. The ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment continues to impact us and the retail industry in general. While we believe that the current macroeconomic environment continues to constrain consumer spending, we remain confident that the long-term dynamics of the automotive aftermarket industry are positive. Furthermore, we continue to believe we are well positioned to serve our customers by meeting their needs in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
We believe that two key drivers of demand within the automotive aftermarket are
(i) the number of miles driven in the U.S. and (ii) the number and average age of vehicles on the road. Miles Driven
We believe that the number of total miles driven in the U.S. heavily influences the demand for the repair and maintenance of vehicles. As the number of miles driven increases, consumers' vehicles are more likely to need repair and maintenance, resulting in an increase in the need for automotive parts and maintenance items. Historically, the long-term trend in miles driven in the U.S. has steadily increased; however, according to the Department of Transportation, total miles driven in the U.S. remained relatively flat from 2007 to 2011 as the U.S. experienced difficult macroeconomic conditions. Historically, rapid increases in fuel prices have also negatively impacted total miles driven as consumers react to the increased expense by reducing travel. Average gasoline prices increased approximately 25% during this same time frame. While gas prices remain somewhat volatile and are not predicted to return to pre-recessionary levels, gas prices were relatively flat when comparing the average price of gas in 2012 to 2011 and the number of miles driven in 2012 increased approximately 0.6% as measured through October. We believe that as the U.S. economy continues to recover, and gasoline prices stabilize further, annual miles driven will return to historical growth rates and continue to drive demand in the automotive aftermarket industry.
Number of Registered Vehicles and Increase in Average Vehicle Age We believe that the total number of vehicles (excluding medium and heavy duty trucks) on the road and the average age of vehicles on the road also heavily influence the demand for products sold within the automotive aftermarket industry. There were 241 million vehicles on the road in 2011 which is 15% higher than in 2001. While recent industry data reported by the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association ("AAIA") indicates that the growth in number of vehicles on the road has decelerated and new vehicle registrations are increasing, the average age of vehicle continues to increase. The average age of vehicles has gradually increased over the last five years from 10.3 years in 2008 to 11.3 years in 2012. We believe that the average age of vehicles continues to increase due to relatively constant scrappage rates, a rate of new car sales well under the 10-year trend and an increase in overall quality of vehicles. As the average age of a vehicle increases, a larger percentage of the


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miles driven are outside of the manufacturer warranty period. These out-of-warranty, older vehicles generate a stronger demand for automotive aftermarket products due to routine maintenance cycles and more frequent mechanical failures. We believe that consumers will continue to keep their vehicles even longer as the economy slowly recovers contributing to the trend of an aging vehicle population.

Store Development by Segment

The following table sets forth the total number of new, closed and relocated stores and stores with Commercial delivery programs during Fiscal 2012, 2011 and 2010 by segment. We lease 78% of our AAP stores. We lease 100% of our AI stores. All of our AI stores have Commercial delivery programs.

                                 AAP
                                                   Fiscal Year
                                            2012      2011      2010
Number of stores, beginning of year        3,460     3,369     3,264
New stores                                   116        95       110
Closed stores                                  -        (4 )      (5 )
Number of stores, end of year              3,576     3,460     3,369
Relocated stores                              12         7         9
Stores with commercial delivery programs   3,266     3,124     3,018

                                  AI
                                                   Fiscal Year
                                            2012      2011      2010
Number of stores, beginning of year          202       194       156
New stores                                    21         9        38
Closed stores                                 (5 )      (1 )       -
Number of stores, end of year                218       202       194
Relocated stores                               7         3         3
Stores with commercial delivery programs     218       202       194

During Fiscal 2013, we anticipate opening 155 to 165 AAP stores and 10 to 15 AI stores (excludes 124 BWP stores acquired on December 31, 2012).

Components of Statement of Operations

Net Sales

Net sales consist primarily of merchandise sales from our retail store locations to both our DIY and Commercial customers and sales from our e-commerce website. Our total sales growth is comprised of both comparable store sales and new store sales. We calculate comparable store sales based on the change in store sales starting once a store has been open for 13 complete accounting periods (approximately one year) and by including e-commerce sales. We include sales from relocated stores in comparable store sales from the original date of opening.

Cost of Sales

Our cost of sales consists of merchandise costs, net of incentives under vendor programs; inventory shrinkage, defective merchandise and warranty costs; and warehouse and distribution expenses. Gross profit as a percentage of net sales may be affected by (i) variations in our product mix, (ii) price changes in response to competitive factors and fluctuations in merchandise costs, (iii) vendor programs, (iv) inventory shrinkage, (v) defective merchandise and warranty costs and (vi) warehouse and distribution costs. We seek to minimize fluctuations in merchandise costs and instability of supply by entering into long-term purchasing agreements, without minimum purchase volume commitments, when we believe it is advantageous. Our gross profit may not be comparable to those of our competitors due to differences in industry practice regarding the classification of certain costs. See Note 2 to our consolidated financial statements elsewhere in this report for additional discussion of these costs.


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Selling, General and Administrative Expenses

SG&A expenses consist of store payroll, store occupancy (including rent and depreciation), advertising expenses, Commercial delivery expenses, other store expenses and general and administrative expenses, including salaries and related benefits of store support center Team Members, share-based compensation expense, store support center administrative office expenses, data processing, professional expenses, self-insurance costs, closed store expense, impairment charges, if any, and other related expenses. See Note 2 to our consolidated financial statements for additional discussion of these costs.

Consolidated Results of Operations

The following table sets forth certain of our operating data expressed as a percentage of net sales for the periods indicated.

                                                          Fiscal Year Ended
                                          December 29,        December 31,        January 1,
                                              2012                2011               2011
Net sales                                      100.0  %            100.0  %            100.0  %
Cost of sales, including purchasing
and warehousing costs                           50.1                50.3                50.0
Gross profit                                    49.9                49.7                50.0
Selling, general and administrative
expenses                                        39.3                39.0                40.1
Operating income                                10.6                10.8                 9.9
Interest expense                                (0.5 )              (0.5 )              (0.5 )
Other, net                                       0.0                 0.0                 0.0
Provision for income taxes                       3.8                 3.9                 3.6
Net income                                       6.2  %              6.4  %              5.8  %

Fiscal 2012 Compared to Fiscal 2011

Net Sales

Net sales for Fiscal 2012 were $6,205.0 million, an increase of $34.5 million, or 0.6%, over net sales for Fiscal 2011. This growth was primarily due to sales from AAP and AI stores added within the last year partially offset by a decrease in comparable store sales.

AAP segment sales were $5,914.9 million, an increase of $30.0 million, or 0.5%, over Fiscal 2011. This growth was primarily a result of sales from the net addition of 116 new stores over the past year partially offset by a comparable store sales decrease of 0.9%. The comparable store sales decrease was driven by a decrease in transaction count partially offset by an increase in transaction value despite more promotional activity in response to lower customer demand. The increase in transaction value is primarily due to (i) the gradual increase in cost and complexity of automotive parts and commodity prices and (ii) and the positive impact from a higher mix of Commercial sales. AI segment sales were $306.1 million, an increase of $5.1 million, or 1.7%, over Fiscal 2011.

                                   2012                       2011
                           AAP      AI      Total     AAP     AI     Total
Comparable Store Sales % (0.9 )%   0.8 %   (0.8 )%   1.9 %   8.6 %    2.2 %
Net Stores Added          116       16      132       91       8       99

Gross Profit

Gross profit for Fiscal 2012 was $3,098.0 million, or 49.9% of net sales, as compared to $3,069.3 million, or 49.7% of net sales, in Fiscal 2011, an increase of 19 basis points. The increase in gross profit as a percentage of net sales was primarily due to improved shrink and reduced product acquisition costs partially offset by increased promotional activity.


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SG&A Expenses

SG&A expenses for Fiscal 2012 were $2,440.7 million, or 39.3% of net sales, as compared to $2,404.6 million, or 39.0% of net sales, for Fiscal 2011, an increase of 36 basis points. This increase as a percentage of net sales was primarily due to expense deleverage as a result of the Company's lower sales volume and increased new store openings in the second half of Fiscal 2012, partially offset by lower incentive compensation.

Operating Income

Operating income for Fiscal 2012 was $657.3 million, representing 10.6% of net sales, as compared to $664.6 million, or 10.8% of net sales, for Fiscal 2011, a decrease of 18 basis points. This decrease was due to a higher SG&A rate partially offset by a slightly higher gross profit rate.

AAP generated operating income of $648.5 million, or 11.0% of net sales, for Fiscal 2012 as compared to $653.1 million, or 11.1% of net sales, for Fiscal 2011. AI generated operating income for Fiscal 2012 of $8.8 million as compared to $11.5 million for Fiscal 2011. The decrease in AI's operating income was primarily due to increased promotional activity and increased percentage of newer stores outside of the Northeastern market which operate at a lower gross profit rate, partially offset by lower incentive compensation.

Interest Expense

Interest expense for Fiscal 2012 was $33.8 million, or 0.5% of net sales, as compared to $30.9 million, or 0.5% of net sales, in Fiscal 2011. The increase in interest expense is primarily a result of the higher average borrowings outstanding during Fiscal 2012 compared to Fiscal 2011.

Income Taxes

Income tax expense for Fiscal 2012 was $236.4 million, as compared to $238.6 million for Fiscal 2011. Our effective income tax rate was 37.9% and 37.7% for Fiscal 2012 and Fiscal 2011, respectively.

Net Income

Net income was $387.7 million, or $5.22 per diluted share, for Fiscal 2012 as compared to $394.7 million, or $5.11 per diluted share, for Fiscal 2011. As a percentage of net sales, net income for Fiscal 2012 was 6.2%, as compared to 6.4% for Fiscal 2011. The increase in diluted EPS was driven primarily by a lower average share count outstanding during Fiscal 2012 partially offset by a slight decrease in net income.

Fiscal 2011 Compared to Fiscal 2010

Net Sales

Net sales for Fiscal 2011 were $6,170.5 million, an increase of $245.3 million, or 4.1%, over net sales for Fiscal 2010. This growth was primarily due to an increase in comparable store sales and sales from AAP and AI stores added within the last year.

AAP produced sales of $5,884.9 million, an increase of $193.8 million, or 3.4%, over Fiscal 2010. The AAP comparable store sales increase of 1.9% was driven by an increase in average sales per customer. AI produced sales of $301.1 million, an increase of $51.6 million, or 20.7%, over Fiscal 2010.

                                  2011                     2010
                          AAP     AI     Total     AAP     AI     Total
Comparable Store Sales % 1.9 %   8.6 %    2.2 %   8.1 %   7.0 %    8.0 %
Net Stores Added          91       8       99     105      38      143


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Gross Profit

Gross profit for Fiscal 2011 was $3,069.3 million, or 49.7% of net sales, as compared to $2,961.3 million, or 50.0% of net sales, in Fiscal 2010, a decrease of 24 basis points. This decrease in gross profit as a percentage of net sales was driven by increased shrink expense, supply chain deleverage due to investments in HUBs and higher fuel costs and commodity price inflation partially offset by improved merchandising and pricing capabilities (such as global sourcing and price optimization) and improved parts availability.

SG&A Expenses

SG&A expenses for Fiscal 2011 were $2,404.6 million, or 39.0% of net sales, as compared to $2,376.4 million, or 40.1% of net sales, for Fiscal 2010, a decrease of 114 basis points. This decrease as a percentage of net sales was primarily due to reduced incentive compensation as a result of lower comparable store sales growth compared to the prior year, store labor leverage resulting from productivity improvements driven by our new variable customer driven labor model, occupancy cost leverage and a decrease in administrative expenses partially offset by increased strategic investments and advertising. These investments included spending in the e-commerce and Commercial areas of our business in support of our Superior Availability and Service Leadership strategies.

Operating Income

Operating income for Fiscal 2011 was $664.6 million, representing 10.8% of net sales, as compared to $584.9 million, or 9.9% of net sales, for Fiscal 2010, an increase of 90 basis points. This increase was due to a lower SG&A rate partially offset by a slightly lower gross profit rate.

AAP produced operating income of $653.1 million, or 11.1% of net sales, for Fiscal 2011 as compared to $580.4 million, or 10.2% of net sales, for Fiscal 2010. AI generated operating income for Fiscal 2011 of $11.5 million as compared to $4.5 million for Fiscal 2010. AI's operating income increased during Fiscal 2011 primarily due to the leverage of SG&A as a result of its improved comparable store sales and decelerated pace of new store openings in Fiscal 2011.

Interest Expense

Interest expense for Fiscal 2011 was $30.9 million, or 0.5% of net sales, as compared to $26.9 million, or 0.5% of net sales, in Fiscal 2010. The increase in interest expense is primarily a result of the amortization of the previously recorded losses in accumulated other comprehensive loss over the remaining life of our interest rate swaps and higher average borrowings outstanding during Fiscal 2011 compared to Fiscal 2010. The interest rate swaps were associated with bank debt which we repaid near the beginning of our second quarter of Fiscal 2010.

Income Taxes

Income tax expense for Fiscal 2011 was $238.6 million, as compared to $211.0 million for Fiscal 2010. Our effective income tax rate was 37.7% and 37.9% for Fiscal 2011 and Fiscal 2010, respectively.

Net Income

Net income was $394.7 million, or $5.11 per diluted share, for Fiscal 2011 as compared to $346.1 million, or $3.95 per diluted share, for Fiscal 2010. As a percentage of net sales, net income for Fiscal 2011 was 6.4%, as compared to 5.8% for Fiscal 2010. The increase in diluted EPS was primarily driven by an increase in net income and our repurchase of $9.9 million shares of our common stock in Fiscal 2011.


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