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ALL > SEC Filings for ALL > Form 10-K on 20-Feb-2013All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-K for ALLSTATE CORP


20-Feb-2013

Annual Report


Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Page Overview 29 2012 Highlights 29 Consolidated Net Income 30 Application of Critical Accounting Estimates 31 Property-Liability 2012 Highlights 43 Property-Liability Operations 43 Allstate Protection Segment 45 Discontinued Lines and Coverages Segment 58 Property-Liability Investment Results 59 Property-Liability Claims and Claims Expense Reserves 60 Allstate Financial 2012 Highlights 69 Allstate Financial Segment 69 Investments 2012 Highlights 78 Investments 78 Market Risk 88 Pension Plans 91 Goodwill 94 Capital Resources and Liquidity 2012 Highlights 95 Capital Resources and Liquidity 95 Enterprise Risk and Return Management 102 Regulation and Legal Proceedings 103 Pending Accounting Standards 103


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OVERVIEW

The following discussion highlights significant factors influencing the consolidated financial position and results of operations of The Allstate Corporation (referred to in this document as "we," "our," "us," the "Company" or "Allstate"). It should be read in conjunction with the 5-year summary of selected financial data, consolidated financial statements and related notes found under Part II. Item 6. and Item 8. contained herein. Further analysis of our insurance segments is provided in the Property-Liability Operations (which includes the Allstate Protection and the Discontinued Lines and Coverages segments) and in the Allstate Financial Segment sections of Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A"). The segments are consistent with the way in which we use financial information to evaluate business performance and to determine the allocation of resources.

Allstate is focused on the following priorities in 2013:

º •
º grow insurance premiums; º •
º maintain auto profitability; º •
º raise returns in homeowners and annuity businesses; º •
º proactively manage investments; and º •
º reduce our cost structure.

The most important factors we monitor to evaluate the financial condition and performance of our company include:

º •
º For Allstate Protection: premium written, the number of policies in force ("PIF"), retention, price changes, claim frequency (rate of claim occurrence per policy in force) and severity (average cost per claim), catastrophes, loss ratio, expenses, underwriting results, and sales of all products and services; º •
º For Allstate Financial: benefit and investment spread, amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs ("DAC"), expenses, operating income, net income, invested assets, and premiums and contract charges; º •
º For Investments: credit quality/experience, total return, investment income, cash flows, realized capital gains and losses, unrealized capital gains and losses, stability of long-term returns, and asset and liability duration; and º •
º For financial condition: liquidity, parent holding company level of deployable invested assets, financial strength ratings, operating leverage, debt leverage, book value per share, and return on equity.

Summary of Results:

º •
º Consolidated net income was $2.31 billion in 2012 compared to $787 million in 2011 and $911 million in 2010. The increase in 2012 compared to 2011 was primarily due to higher net income from Property-Liability, partially offset by lower net income from Allstate Financial. The decrease in 2011 compared to 2010 was primarily due to lower net income from Property-Liability, partially offset by higher net income from Allstate Financial. Net income per diluted share was $4.68, $1.50 and $1.68 in 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively. º •
º Allstate Protection had underwriting income of $1.25 billion in 2012 compared to an underwriting loss of $857 million in 2011 and underwriting income of $525 million in 2010. The underwriting income in 2012 compared to the underwriting loss in 2011 was primarily due to underwriting income in homeowners and other personal lines in 2012 compared to underwriting losses in 2011, partially offset by a decrease in standard auto underwriting income. The decrease in 2011 compared to 2010 was primarily due to increases in homeowners underwriting losses and decreases in other personal lines and standard auto underwriting income. The Allstate Protection combined ratio was 95.3, 103.3 and 98.0 in 2012, 2011 and 2010, respectively. Underwriting income (loss), a measure not based on accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP"), is defined in the Property-Liability Operations section of the MD&A. º •
º Allstate Financial net income was $541 million in 2012 compared to $590 million in 2011 and $42 million in 2010. The decrease in 2012 compared to 2011 was primarily due to net realized capital losses in 2012 compared to net realized capital gains in 2011, lower net investment income and higher life and annuity contract benefits, partially offset by decreased interest credited to contractholder funds and lower amortization of DAC. The increase in 2011 compared to 2010 was primarily due to net realized capital gains in 2011 compared to net realized capital losses in 2010 and decreased interest credited to contractholder funds, partially offset by higher amortization of DAC and lower net investment income.

2012 HIGHLIGHTS

º •
º Consolidated net income was $2.31 billion in 2012 compared to $787 million in 2011. Net income per diluted share was $4.68 in 2012 compared to $1.50 in 2011.


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º •
º Property-Liability net income was $1.97 billion in 2012 compared to $403 million in 2011. º •
º The Property-Liability combined ratio was 95.5 in 2012 compared to 103.4 in 2011. º •
º Allstate Financial net income was $541 million in 2012 compared to $590 million in 2011. º •
º Total revenues were $33.32 billion in 2012 compared to $32.65 billion in 2011. º •
º Property-Liability premiums earned totaled $26.74 billion in 2012 compared to $25.94 billion in 2011. º •
º Investments totaled $97.28 billion as of December 31, 2012, an increase of 1.7% from $95.62 billion as of December 31, 2011. Net investment income was $4.01 billion in 2012, an increase of 1.0% from $3.97 billion in 2011. º •
º Net realized capital gains were $327 million in 2012 compared to $503 million in 2011. º •
º Book value per diluted share (ratio of shareholders' equity to total shares outstanding and dilutive potential shares outstanding) was $42.39 as of December 31, 2012, an increase of 17.2% from $36.18 as of December 31, 2011. º •
º For the twelve months ended December 31, 2012, return on the average of beginning and ending period shareholders' equity was 11.9%, an increase of 7.6 points from 4.3% for the twelve months ended December 31, 2011. º •
º As of December 31, 2012, shareholders' equity was $20.58 billion. This total included $2.06 billion in deployable invested assets at the parent holding company level.

CONSOLIDATED NET INCOME

($ in millions)                                     For the years ended December 31,
                                                    2012            2011         2010
Revenues
Property-liability insurance premiums            $    26,737     $    25,942   $  25,957
Life and annuity premiums and contract
charges                                                2,241           2,238       2,168
Net investment income                                  4,010           3,971       4,102
Realized capital gains and losses:
Total other-than-temporary impairment losses            (239 )          (563 )      (937 )
Portion of loss recognized in other
comprehensive income                                       6             (33 )       (64 )

Net other-than-temporary impairment losses
recognized in earnings                                  (233 )          (596 )    (1,001 )
Sales and other realized capital gains and
losses                                                   560           1,099         174

Total realized capital gains and losses                  327             503        (827 )

Total revenues                                        33,315          32,654      31,400
Costs and expenses
Property-liability insurance claims and
claims expense                                       (18,484 )       (20,161 )   (18,951 )
Life and annuity contract benefits                    (1,818 )        (1,761 )    (1,815 )
Interest credited to contractholder funds             (1,316 )        (1,645 )    (1,807 )
Amortization of deferred policy acquisition
costs                                                 (3,884 )        (3,971 )    (3,807 )
Operating costs and expenses                          (4,118 )        (3,739 )    (3,542 )
Restructuring and related charges                        (34 )           (44 )       (30 )
Interest expense                                        (373 )          (367 )      (367 )

Total costs and expenses                             (30,027 )       (31,688 )   (30,319 )
Gain (loss) on disposition of operations                  18              (7 )        19
Income tax expense                                    (1,000 )          (172 )      (189 )

Net income                                       $     2,306     $       787   $     911

Property-Liability                               $     1,968     $       403   $   1,053
Allstate Financial                                       541             590          42
Corporate and Other                                     (203 )          (206 )      (184 )

Net income                                       $     2,306     $       787   $     911


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APPLICATION OF CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires management to adopt accounting policies and make estimates and assumptions that affect amounts reported in the consolidated financial statements. The most critical estimates include those used in determining:

º •
º Fair value of financial assets º •
º Impairment of fixed income and equity securities º •
º Deferred policy acquisition costs amortization º •
º Reserve for property-liability insurance claims and claims expense estimation º •
º Reserve for life-contingent contract benefits estimation

In making these determinations, management makes subjective and complex judgments that frequently require estimates about matters that are inherently uncertain. Many of these policies, estimates and related judgments are common in the insurance and financial services industries; others are specific to our businesses and operations. It is reasonably likely that changes in these estimates could occur from period to period and result in a material impact on our consolidated financial statements.

A brief summary of each of these critical accounting estimates follows. For a more detailed discussion of the effect of these estimates on our consolidated financial statements, and the judgments and assumptions related to these estimates, see the referenced sections of this document. For a complete summary of our significant accounting policies, see the notes to the consolidated financial statements.

Fair value of financial assets Fair value is defined as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. We are responsible for the determination of fair value of financial assets and the supporting assumptions and methodologies. We use independent third-party valuation service providers, broker quotes and internal pricing methods to determine fair values. We obtain or calculate only one single quote or price for each financial instrument.

Valuation service providers typically obtain data about market transactions and other key valuation model inputs from multiple sources and, through the use of proprietary models, produce valuation information in the form of a single fair value for individual fixed income and other securities for which a fair value has been requested under the terms of our agreements. The inputs used by the valuation service providers include, but are not limited to, market prices from recently completed transactions and transactions of comparable securities, interest rate yield curves, credit spreads, liquidity spreads, currency rates, and other information, as applicable. Credit and liquidity spreads are typically implied from completed transactions and transactions of comparable securities. Valuation service providers also use proprietary discounted cash flow models that are widely accepted in the financial services industry and similar to those used by other market participants to value the same financial instruments. The valuation models take into account, among other things, market observable information as of the measurement date, as described above, as well as the specific attributes of the security being valued including its term, interest rate, credit rating, industry sector, and where applicable, collateral quality and other issue or issuer specific information. Executing valuation models effectively requires seasoned professional judgment and experience. For certain equity securities, valuation service providers provide market quotations for completed transactions on the measurement date. In cases where market transactions or other market observable data is limited, the extent to which judgment is applied varies inversely with the availability of market observable information.

For certain of our financial assets measured at fair value, where our valuation service providers cannot provide fair value determinations, we obtain a single non-binding price quote from a broker familiar with the security who, similar to our valuation service providers, may consider transactions or activity in similar securities among other information. The brokers providing price quotes are generally from the brokerage divisions of leading financial institutions with market making, underwriting and distribution expertise regarding the security subject to valuation.

The fair value of certain financial assets, including privately placed corporate fixed income securities, auction rate securities ("ARS") backed by student loans, equity-indexed notes, and certain free-standing derivatives, for which our valuation service providers or brokers do not provide fair value determinations, is determined using valuation methods and models widely accepted in the financial services industry. Our internal pricing methods are primarily based on models using discounted cash flow methodologies that develop a single best estimate of fair value. Our models generally incorporate inputs that we believe are representative of inputs other market participants would use to determine fair value of the same instruments, including yield curves, quoted market prices of comparable securities, published credit spreads, and other applicable market data as well as instrument-specific characteristics that include, but are not limited to, coupon rates, expected cash flows, sector of the issuer, and call provisions. Judgment is required


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in developing these fair values. As a result, the fair value of these financial assets may differ from the amount actually received to sell an asset in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. Moreover, the use of different valuation assumptions may have a material effect on the financial assets' fair values.

For most of our financial assets measured at fair value, all significant inputs are based on or corroborated by market observable data and significant management judgment does not affect the periodic determination of fair value. The determination of fair value using discounted cash flow models involves management judgment when significant model inputs are not based on or corroborated by market observable data. However, where market observable data is available, it takes precedence, and as a result, no range of reasonably likely inputs exists from which the basis of a sensitivity analysis could be constructed.

There is one primary situation where a discounted cash flow model utilizes a significant input that is not market observable, and it relates to the determination of fair value for our ARS backed by student loans. The significant input utilized is the anticipated date liquidity will return to this market (that is, when auction failures will cease). Determination of this assumption allows for matching to market observable inputs when performing these valuations.

The fair value of our ARS backed by student loans is $394 million as of December 31, 2012. We performed a sensitivity analysis of reasonably likely changes in the anticipated date liquidity will return to the student loan ARS market as of December 31, 2012. If the anticipated date liquidity will return to this market increased or decreased by six months, the fair value of our ARS backed by student loans would decrease or increase by 1.5%, respectively. The selection of these hypothetical scenarios represents an illustration of the estimated potential proportional effect of alternate assumptions and should not be construed as either a prediction of future events or an indication that it would be reasonably likely that all securities would be similarly affected.

We gain assurance that our financial assets are appropriately valued through the execution of various processes and controls designed to ensure the overall reasonableness and consistent application of valuation methodologies, including inputs and assumptions, and compliance with accounting standards. For fair values received from third parties or internally estimated, our processes and controls are designed to ensure that the valuation methodologies are appropriate and consistently applied, the inputs and assumptions are reasonable and consistent with the objective of determining fair value, and the fair values are accurately recorded. For example, on a continuing basis, we assess the reasonableness of individual fair values that have stale security prices or that exceed certain thresholds as compared to previous fair values received from valuation service providers or brokers or derived from internal models. We perform procedures to understand and assess the methodologies, processes and controls of valuation service providers. In addition, we may validate the reasonableness of fair values by comparing information obtained from valuation service providers or brokers to other third party valuation sources for selected securities. We perform ongoing price validation procedures such as back-testing of actual sales, which corroborate the various inputs used in internal models to market observable data. When fair value determinations are expected to be more variable, we validate them through reviews by members of management who have relevant expertise and who are independent of those charged with executing investment transactions.

We also perform an analysis to determine whether there has been a significant decrease in the volume and level of activity for the asset when compared to normal market activity, and if so, whether transactions may not be orderly. Among the indicators we consider in determining whether a significant decrease in the volume and level of market activity for a specific asset has occurred include the level of new issuances in the primary market, trading volume in the secondary market, level of credit spreads over historical levels, bid-ask spread, and price consensuses among market participants and sources. If evidence indicates that prices are based on transactions that are not orderly, we place little, if any, weight on the transaction price and will estimate fair value using an internal model. As of December 31, 2012 and 2011, we did not alter fair values provided by our valuation service providers or brokers or substitute them with an internal model for such securities.


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The following table identifies fixed income and equity securities and short-term investments as of December 31, 2012 by source of fair value determination:

                                                       Fair      Percent
          ($ in millions)                             value      to total
          Fair value based on internal sources       $  6,277          7.5 %
          Fair value based on external sources (1)     77,113         92.5

          Total                                      $ 83,390        100.0 %


º (1)
º Includes $3.78 billion that are valued using broker quotes.

For additional detail on fair value measurements, see Note 6 of the consolidated financial statements.

Impairment of fixed income and equity securities For investments classified as available for sale, the difference between fair value and amortized cost for fixed income securities and cost for equity securities, net of certain other items and deferred income taxes (as disclosed in Note 5), is reported as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income on the Consolidated Statements of Financial Position and is not reflected in the operating results of any period until reclassified to net income upon the consummation of a transaction with an unrelated third party or when a write-down is recorded due to an other-than-temporary decline in fair value. We have a comprehensive portfolio monitoring process to identify and evaluate each fixed income and equity security whose carrying value may be other-than-temporarily impaired.

For each fixed income security in an unrealized loss position, we assess whether management with the appropriate authority has made the decision to sell or whether it is more likely than not we will be required to sell the security before recovery of the amortized cost basis for reasons such as liquidity, contractual or regulatory purposes. If a security meets either of these criteria, the security's decline in fair value is considered other than temporary and is recorded in earnings.

If we have not made the decision to sell the fixed income security and it is not more likely than not we will be required to sell the fixed income security before recovery of its amortized cost basis, we evaluate whether we expect to receive cash flows sufficient to recover the entire amortized cost basis of the security. We use our best estimate of future cash flows expected to be collected from the fixed income security, discounted at the security's original or current effective rate, as appropriate, to calculate a recovery value and determine whether a credit loss exists. The determination of cash flow estimates is inherently subjective and methodologies may vary depending on facts and circumstances specific to the security. All reasonably available information relevant to the collectability of the security, including past events, current conditions, and reasonable and supportable assumptions and forecasts, are considered when developing the estimate of cash flows expected to be collected. That information generally includes, but is not limited to, the remaining payment terms of the security, prepayment speeds, foreign exchange rates, the financial condition and future earnings potential of the issue or issuer, expected defaults, expected recoveries, the value of underlying collateral, vintage, geographic concentration, available reserves or escrows, current subordination levels, third party guarantees and other credit enhancements. Other information, such as industry analyst reports and forecasts, sector credit ratings, financial condition of the bond insurer for insured fixed income securities, and other market data relevant to the realizability of contractual cash flows, may also be considered. The estimated fair value of collateral will be used to estimate recovery value if we determine that the security is dependent on the liquidation of collateral for ultimate settlement. If the estimated recovery value is less than the amortized cost of the security, a credit loss exists and an other-than-temporary impairment for the difference between the estimated recovery value and amortized cost is recorded in earnings. The portion of the unrealized loss related to factors other than credit remains classified in accumulated other comprehensive income. If we determine that the fixed income security does not have sufficient cash flow or other information to estimate a recovery value for the security, we may conclude that the entire decline in fair value is deemed to be credit related and the loss is recorded in earnings.

There are a number of assumptions and estimates inherent in evaluating impairments of equity securities and determining if they are other than temporary, including: 1) our ability and intent to hold the investment for a period of time sufficient to allow for an anticipated recovery in value; 2) the length of time and extent to which the fair value has been less than cost;
3) the financial condition, near-term and long-term prospects of the issue or issuer, including relevant industry specific market conditions and trends, geographic location and implications of rating agency actions and offering prices; and 4) the specific reasons that a security is in an unrealized loss position, including overall market conditions which could affect liquidity.


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Once assumptions and estimates are made, any number of changes in facts and circumstances could cause us to subsequently determine that a fixed income or equity security is other-than-temporarily impaired, including: 1) general economic conditions that are worse than previously forecasted or that have a greater adverse effect on a particular issuer or industry sector than originally estimated; 2) changes in the facts and circumstances related to a particular issue or issuer's ability to meet all of its contractual obligations; and
3) changes in facts and circumstances that result in changes to management's intent to sell or result in our assessment that it is more likely than not we will be required to sell before recovery of the amortized cost basis of a fixed income security or causes a change in our ability or intent to hold an equity security until it recovers in value. Changes in assumptions, facts and circumstances could result in additional charges to earnings in future periods to the extent that losses are realized. The charge to earnings, while potentially significant to net income, would not have a significant effect on shareholders' equity, since our securities are designated as available for sale and carried at fair value and as a result, any related unrealized loss, net of deferred income taxes and related DAC, deferred sales inducement costs and reserves for life-contingent contract benefits, would already be reflected as a . . .

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