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GHM > SEC Filings for GHM > Form 10-Q on 31-Jul-2012All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for GRAHAM CORP


31-Jul-2012

Quarterly Report


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

(Dollar amounts in thousands, except per share data)

Overview

We are a global business that designs, manufactures and sells custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum systems, condensers, liquid ring pump packages and heat exchangers to the refining and petrochemical industries, and a nuclear code accredited supplier of components and raw materials to the nuclear power generating market. Our equipment is used in critical applications in the petrochemical, oil refining and electric power generation industries, including nuclear, cogeneration and geothermal plants. Our equipment can also be found in alternative energy, including ethanol, biodiesel and coal and gas-to-liquids, as well as other diverse applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, shipbuilding, (the nuclear propulsion program of the U.S. Navy), water heating, refrigeration, desalination, soap manufacturing, food processing, pharmaceuticals, and heating, ventilating and air conditioning.

Our corporate offices are located in Batavia, New York and we have production facilities in both Batavia, New York and at our wholly-owned subsidiary, Energy Steel & Supply Co., located in Lapeer, Michigan. We also have a wholly-owned foreign subsidiary, Graham Vacuum and Heat Transfer Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., located in Suzhou, China, which supports sales orders from China and provides engineering support and supervision of subcontracted fabrication.

Highlights

Highlights for the three months ended June 30, 2012 (the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013 is referred to as "fiscal 2013") include:

• Net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 were $22,533 a decrease of 10% compared with $25,012 for the first quarter of the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012 (the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012 is referred to as "fiscal 2012").

• Net income and income per diluted share for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 were $1,390 and $0.14, compared with net income of $3,016 and income per diluted share of $0.30 for the first quarter of fiscal 2012.

• Orders booked in the first quarter of fiscal 2013 were $19,721, up 4% compared with the first quarter of fiscal 2012, when orders were $19,043.

• Backlog decreased to $91,980 at June 30, 2012, representing a 3% decrease compared with March 31, 2012, when backlog was $94,934.

• Gross profit margin and operating margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 were 28% and 10%, respectively, compared with 33% and 18%, respectively, for the first quarter of fiscal 2012.

• Cash and short-term investments at June 30, 2012 were $46,624 compared with $41,688 at March 31, 2012.

Forward-Looking Statements

This report and other documents we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission include "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of
Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.


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These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from any future results implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties identified by us under the heading "Risk Factors" in Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for fiscal 2012.

Forward-looking statements may also include, but are not limited to, statements about:

• the current and future economic environments affecting us and the markets we serve;

• expectations regarding investments in new projects by our customers;

• sources of revenue and anticipated revenue, including the contribution from the growth of new products, services and markets;

• plans for future products and services and for enhancements to existing products and services;

• our operations in foreign countries;

• our ability to continue to pursue our acquisition and growth strategy;

• our ability to expand nuclear power work into new markets;

• our ability to successfully execute our existing contracts;

• estimates regarding our liquidity and capital requirements;

• timing of conversion of backlog to sales;

• our ability to attract or retain customers;

• the outcome of any existing or future litigation; and

• our ability to increase our productivity and capacity.

Forward-looking statements are usually accompanied by words such as "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "may," "might," "intend," "appear," "expect" and similar expressions. Actual results could differ materially from historical results or those implied by the forward-looking statements contained in this report.

Undue reliance should not be placed on our forward-looking statements. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or announce any revisions to forward-looking statements contained in this report, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Fiscal 2013 and the Near-Term Market Conditions

The start of fiscal 2013 continues to see active bidding activity. We believe current market conditions are more positive than they have been in the past few years. The business environment in our markets appears to be improving and our customers seem more inclined to move forward with their projects. This supports our belief that our oil refining, petrochemical and related markets remain in the early stages of a business recovery. Nevertheless, there continues to be uncertainty as to whether a sustained global economic recovery is occurring, which in turn continues to affect the timing of new order placement for capital equipment by our customers. This appears to be a timing issue rather than a worsening in our markets.


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Near-term demand trends that we believe are affecting our customers' investments include:

• As the world recovers from the global recession, many emerging economies continue to have relatively strong economic growth. This expansion is driving growing energy requirements and the need for more refined petroleum products. Although uncertainty in the capital and sovereign debt markets continues, we believe that improved access to capital has resulted in project releases.

• The expansion of the economies of oil producing Middle Eastern countries, their desire to extract greater value from their oil and gas resources, and the continued global growth in demand for oil and refined products has renewed investment activity in that region. We do not believe that the ongoing political unrest in the Middle East has impacted our business. Moreover, the planned timeline of refinery projects in the major Middle Eastern countries is encouraging.

• Asian countries, specifically China and India, are experiencing renewed demand for refined petroleum products such as gasoline. This renewed demand is driving increased investment in petrochemical and refining projects. Although economic growth in Asia appears to be moderating to a lower level, we believe that it remains a fast growing area and Chinese and Indian investments in refining, petrochemical and energy facilities appear to continue to be strong.

• South America, specifically Brazil, Venezuela and Colombia, is seeing increased refining and petrochemical investments that are driven by their expanding economies and increased local demand for gasoline and other products that are made from oil as the feedstock.

• We expect that the U.S. refining markets will not return to the levels experienced during the last up cycle, but that such markets will improve compared with the past few years. We also expect that the U.S. refining markets will continue to be an important aspect of our business.

• We are beginning to see renewed signs of planned investments in the U.S. to convert greater percentages of crude oil to transportation fuels, such as revamping distillation columns to extract residual higher-value components from the low-value waste stream. We are also seeing renewed investment to expand the flexibility of facilities to allow them to utilize multiple feedstocks.

• Investments, including foreign investments, in North American oil sands projects have recently increased, especially for extraction projects in Alberta. Such investments suggest that downstream spending involving our equipment might increase in the next one to three years.

• The recent dramatic reduction in natural gas costs in the U.S. has led to a revival in the U.S. petrochemical market and a recent interest toward potential major investment. There are numerous projects in planning or initial engineering phases for the construction of new petrochemical producing facilities, including ethylene, ammonia and urea. We historically have had strong market share within these facilities. Proposed ethylene capacity expansion and re-opening of mothballed facilities, in the U.S., as well as downstream products, are also being discussed by petrochemical producers for the first time in well over a decade. Lower natural gas costs is a relatively recent phenomena, having occurred over the past three years and is driven by technology advancements in drilling, creating a significant increase in supply. This has made the U.S. production of raw material for ethylene, ethane (which is a side product of natural gas production) globally competitive with naphtha (the alternative feedstock for ethylene used in most of the world). We believe that future investment in U.S. petrochemical markets could be significant.


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• Investment in new nuclear power capacity internationally may become subject to increased uncertainty due to political and social pressures, which were augmented by the tragic earthquake and tsunami that occurred in Japan in March 2011. The need for additional safety and back up redundancies at the 104 existing domestic nuclear plants could increase demand for Energy Steel's products in the near-term.

• Investments in existing U.S. nuclear plants to extend their operating life and add incremental capacity are expected to continue.

• Investment in new U.S. nuclear reactor projects planned for the Summer (South Carolina) and Vogtle (Georgia) facilities suggest continued growth in the domestic nuclear market, although such growth may be slowed by the perceptions related to the Fukushima accident in Japan and the potential impact of increased use of natural gas for power generation.

We expect that the consequences of these near-term trends, and specifically projected expansion in petrochemical and oil refining outside of North America, primarily in the growing Asian and South American markets, will result in more pressure on our pricing and gross margins, as these markets historically provided lower margins than North American refining markets. A potential offset to margin pressure from international markets may come from investments in new petrochemical capacity built in North America and the timing of such investments.

Because of continued global economic and financial uncertainty and the risk associated with growth in emerging economies, we also expect that we will have continued volatility in our order pattern. We continue to expect our new order levels to remain volatile, resulting in both strong and weak quarters. Quarterly orders can vary significantly as indicated in the following chart which depicts our quarterly order levels for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 as well as the four quarters of fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2011.

[[Image Removed: LOGO]]


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We believe that looking at our order level in any one quarter does not provide an accurate indication of our future expectations or performance. Rather, we believe that looking at our orders and backlog over a one-to two-year period provides a better measure of our business. In the near future, we expect to see smaller value projects than what we had seen during the last expansion cycle. This will require more orders for us to achieve a similar revenue level and will adversely impact our ability to realize margin gains through volume leverage.

Mix Shift: Expected Stronger International Growth in Refining and Chemical Processing with Domestic Growth in Nuclear Power and U.S. Navy Projects

We expect growth in the refining and chemical processing markets to be driven by emerging markets. We have also expanded our addressable markets through the acquisition of Energy Steel and our focus on U.S. Navy nuclear propulsion projects. We believe our revenue opportunities during the near term will be equivalent between the domestic and international markets.

Over the long-term, we expect our customers' markets to regain their strength and, while remaining cyclical, continue to grow. We believe the long-term trends remain strong and that the drivers of future growth include:

Long-term Demand Trends

• Global consumption of crude oil is estimated to expand significantly over the next two decades, primarily in emerging markets. This is expected to offset estimated flat to slightly declining demand in North America and Europe. In addition, an increased trend toward export supply of finished product from the Middle East to North America and Europe is expected.

• Global oil refining capacity is projected to increase, and is expected to be addressed through new facilities, refinery upgrades, revamps and expansions.

• Increased demand is expected for power, refinery and petrochemical products, stimulated by an expanding middle class in Asia, South America and the Middle East.

• Increased development of geothermal electrical power plants in certain regions is expected to address projected growth in demand for electrical power.

• Increased global regulations over the refining, petrochemical and nuclear power industries are expected to continue to drive requirements for capital investments.

• More refineries are expected to convert their facilities to use heavier, more readily available and lower cost crude oil as a feedstock.

• Shale gas development and the resulting increase in available low cost natural gas in the U.S. may change the power landscape. This may drive more future investment in natural gas or combined cycle power plants and possibly away from planned nuclear.

• The lower cost of natural gas and its by-product, ethane, may lead to renewed investment in North American based chemical/petrochemical facilities to meet domestic needs. Ethane, as a feedstock to ethylene production, is now at a cost advantage to naphtha, the oil-based feedstock for ethylene production used in much of the rest of the world. Because of this cost competitive position of ethane, the opportunity to invest in North American chemical/petrochemical plants is possible for the first time in well over a decade.


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• Construction of new petrochemical plants in the Middle East are planned to meet increased local demand.

• Increased focus on safety and redundancy is anticipated in existing nuclear power facilities.

• Long-term increased project development of international nuclear facilities is expected, despite the recent tragedy in Japan, (including in the U.S.).

• Increased investments in new power generation projects are expected in Asia and South America to meet projected consumer demand increases.

• Long-term growth potential is believed to exist in alternative energy markets, such as geothermal, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and other emerging technologies, such as biodiesel, and waste-to-energy.

We believe that all of the above factors offer us long-term growth opportunities to meet our customers' expected capital project needs. In addition, we believe we can continue to grow our less cyclical smaller product lines and aftermarket businesses.

Our domestic sales, as a percentage of aggregate product sales, in the first quarter of fiscal 2013 were 56%. This continues the trend from fiscal 2012 where domestic sales had increased to 54% of total sales, up from 45% in fiscal 2010 and 2011. The increase in domestic sales has been due to our acquisition of Energy Steel in late fiscal 2011, which primarily has a domestic customer base, and the conversion of the U.S. Navy order. The Navy activity represents our production of surface condensers for the CVN-79 Gerald R. Ford Class nuclear carrier order that was won in the third quarter of our fiscal year ended March 31, 2010.

Results of Operations

For an understanding of the significant factors that influenced our performance, the following discussion should be read in conjunction with our condensed consolidated financial statements and the notes to our condensed consolidated financial statements included in Part I, Item 1, of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

The following table summarizes our results of operations for the periods indicated:

                                           Three Months Ended June 30,
                                            2012                 2011
            Net sales                  $       22,533       $       25,012
            Net income                 $        1,390       $        3,016
            Diluted income per share   $         0.14       $         0.30
            Total assets               $      112,749       $      118,195


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The First Quarter of Fiscal 2013 Compared With the First Quarter of Fiscal 2012

Sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 were $22,533, a 10% decrease as compared with sales of $25,012 for the first quarter of fiscal 2012. The decrease in the current quarter's sales was driven by lower volume in the refining market, which had a large Mideast project convert in the first half of fiscal 2012. International sales year-over-year decreased $3,851, or 28%, due to decreases of $5,188 in the Middle East and $2,324 in South America, partly offset by higher Canadian sales, which were up $2,940. International sales accounted for 44% and 55% of total sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 and fiscal 2012, respectively. Domestic sales increased $1,372, or 12%, in the first quarter of fiscal 2013 compared with the first quarter of fiscal 2012. Fluctuations in sales among products and geographic locations can vary measurably from quarter-to-quarter based on timing and magnitude of projects. Sales in the three months ended June 30, 2012 were 23% to the refining industry, 25% to the chemical and petrochemical industries, 23% to the power industry, including the nuclear market and 29% to other commercial and industrial applications. Sales in the three months ended June 30, 2011 were 48% to the refining industry, 12% to the chemical and petrochemical industries, 23% to the power industry, and 17% to other commercial and industrial applications. For additional information on future sales and our markets, see "Orders and Backlog" below.

Our gross profit margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 was 28% compared with 33% for the first quarter of fiscal 2012. Gross profit dollars for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 decreased 24% compared with fiscal 2012, to $6,236 from $8,197. Gross profit percentage and dollars decreased primarily due to lower volume / capacity utilization and conversion of projects which had less favorable pricing compared with the projects converted in the first quarter of fiscal 2012. Certain projects which converted in the first quarter of the prior fiscal year were won during the prior market peak, where pricing was strong.

Selling, general and administrative ("SG&A") expenses as a percent of sales for the three-month periods ended June 30, 2012 and 2011 were 18% and 15%, respectively. Actual costs in fiscal 2013 were $4,084, an increase of $383, or 10%, compared with the first quarter of fiscal 2012 SG&A of $3,701. The increase in SG&A expenses was primarily due to personnel additions to support growth in our business.

Interest income for the three month-periods ended June 30, 2012 and 2011 was $11 and $21, respectively. Low levels of interest income resulted from the continuing low level of interest rates on short term U.S. government securities and money market rates.

Interest expense was $80 for the quarter ended June 30, 2012, up from $20 for the quarter ended June 30, 2011. The increase was due to interest recorded relating to our uncertain tax positions.

The tax rate in the first quarter of fiscal 2013 was 33%, which compares with 34% in the same period last year. Included in the first quarter was a $24 charge to resolve a dispute with the IRS relating to research and development tax credits claimed during tax years 2009 and 2010.

Net income for the first three months of fiscal 2013 compared with the first three months of fiscal 2012 was $1,390 and $3,016, respectively. Income per diluted share was $0.14 and $0.30 for the respective periods.


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