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| USL > SEC Filings for USL > Form 10-Q on 10-May-2012 | All Recent SEC Filings |
10-May-2012
Quarterly Report
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the condensed financial statements and the notes thereto of the United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP ("US12OF") included elsewhere in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
Forward-Looking Information
This quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including this "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations," contains forward-looking statements regarding the plans and objectives of management for future operations. This information may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause US12OF's actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and describe US12OF's future plans, strategies and expectations, are generally identifiable by use of the words "may," "will," "should," "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "believe," "intend" or "project," the negative of these words, other variations on these words or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that may be incorrect, and US12OF cannot assure investors that the projections included in these forward-looking statements will come to pass. US12OF's actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.
US12OF has based the forward-looking statements included in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q on information available to it on the date of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, and US12OF assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Although US12OF undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, investors are advised to consult any additional disclosures that US12OF may make directly to them or through reports that US12OF in the future files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), including annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.
Introduction
US12OF, a Delaware limited partnership, is a commodity pool that issues units that may be purchased and sold on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (the "NYSE Arca"). The investment objective of US12OF is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its units' per unit net asset value ("NAV") to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the average of the prices of 12 futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the "NYMEX") that is the near month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 months for a total of 12 consecutive months' contracts, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case it will be measured by the futures contract that is the next month contract to expire and the contracts for the following 11 consecutive months (the "Benchmark Futures Contracts"), less US12OF's expenses. "Near month contract" means the next contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire. "Next month contract" means the first contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire after the near month contract. When calculating the daily movement of the average price of the 12 contracts, each contract month will be equally weighted. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that the per unit NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of light, sweet crude oil or any particular futures contract based on light, sweet crude oil. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that its per unit NAV will reflect the percentage change of the price of any particular futures contract as measured over a time period greater than one day. The general partner of US12OF, United States Commodity Funds LLC ("USCF"), believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts (as defined below) and Other Oil-Related Investments (as defined below).
US12OF invests in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, "Oil Futures Contracts") and other oil interests such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward contracts for oil, cleared swap contracts and over-the-counter transactions that are based on the price of crude oil, other petroleum-based fuels, Oil Futures Contracts and indices based on the foregoing (collectively, "Other Oil-Related Investments"). For convenience and unless otherwise specified, Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments collectively are referred to as "Oil Interests" in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
US12OF seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a combination of Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments such that daily changes in its per unit NAV, measured in percentage terms, will closely track the daily changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts, also measured in percentage terms. USCF believes the daily changes in the average of the prices of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts have historically exhibited a close correlation with the daily changes in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that the per unit NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of light, sweet crude oil or any particular futures contract based on light, sweet crude oil. It is not the intent of US12OF to be operated in a fashion such that its per unit NAV will reflect the percentage change of the price of any particular futures contract as measured over a time period greater than one day. USCF believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil-Related Investments.
The regulation of commodity interests in the United States is subject to ongoing modification by governmental and judicial action. On July 21, 2010, a broad financial regulatory reform bill, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the "Dodd-Frank Act"), was signed into law. All of the Dodd-Frank Act's provisions became effective on July 16, 2011, but the actual implementation of some of the provisions is subject to continuing uncertainty because implementing rules and regulations have not been completely finalized and have been challenged in court. Pending final resolution of all applicable regulatory requirements, some specific examples of how the new Dodd-Frank Act provisions and rules adopted thereunder could impact US12OF are discussed below.
Futures Contracts and Position Limits
Provisions in the Dodd-Frank Act include the requirement that position limits be established on a wide range of commodity interests including energy-based and other commodity futures contracts, certain cleared commodity swaps and certain over-the-counter commodity contracts; new registration, recordkeeping, capital and margin requirements for "swap dealers" and "major swap participants" as determined by the new law and applicable regulations; and the forced use of clearinghouse mechanisms for most swap transactions that are currently entered into in the over-the-counter market. The new law and the rules thereunder may negatively impact US12OF's ability to meet its investment objective either through limits or requirements imposed on it or upon its counterparties. Further, increased regulation of, and the imposition of additional costs on, swap transactions under the new legislation and implementing regulations could cause a reduction in the swap market and the overall derivatives markets, which could restrict liquidity and adversely affect US12OF. In particular, new position limits imposed on US12OF or its counterparties may impact US12OF's ability to invest in a manner that most efficiently meets its investment objective, and new requirements, including capital and mandatory clearing, may increase the cost of US12OF's investments and doing business, which could adversely impact the ability of US12OF to achieve its investment objective.
On October 18, 2011, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the "CFTC") adopted regulations implementing position limits and limit formulas for 28 core physical commodity futures contracts, including the Oil Futures Contracts and options on Oil Futures Contracts executed pursuant to the rules of designated contract markets (i.e., certain regulated exchanges) and commodity swaps that are economically equivalent to such futures and options contracts (collectively, "Referenced Contracts"). The new regulations require, among other things, aggregation of position limits that would apply across different trading venues to contracts based on the same underlying commodity. However, the regulations do not appear to require aggregation of Referenced Contracts held by separate Related Public Funds (as defined below).
Although the regulations became effective on January 17, 2012, the position limit rules will be implemented in two phases: spot-month position limits and non-spot-month position limits. Spot-month limits will be effective sixty days after the term "swap" is defined under the Dodd-Frank Act (see below). The limits adopted will be based on the spot-month position limit levels currently in place at applicable futures exchanges (or designated contract market or "DCM"). Thereafter, the spot-month limits will be adjusted annually for energy contracts. These subsequent limits will be based on the CFTC's determination of deliverable supply in consultation with the futures exchanges. Spot-month position limit levels will be set generally at 25% of estimated deliverable supply, and limits will be applied separately for physical-delivery and cash-settled contracts in the same commodity.
Non-spot-month position limits will go into effect by CFTC order after the CFTC has received one year of open interest data on physical commodity cleared and uncleared swaps under the swaps large trader reporting rule. The non-spot month limits will be adjusted biennially based on Referenced Contract open interest. Non-spot-month position limits (i.e., limits applied to positions in all contract months combined or in a single contract month) will be set using the 10/2.5 percent formula: 10 percent of the contract's first 25,000 of open interest and 2.5 percent thereafter. These limits will be reset biennially based on two years of open interest data.
On December 2, 2011, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association ("SIFMA") and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association ("ISDA") filed a lawsuit challenging the CFTC's position limits rule. The lawsuit asserts that the position limits rule inadequately fulfills the required cost-benefit analysis. It is not known at this time what effect this lawsuit will have on the implementation of the new position limits rule.
Based on its current understanding of the final position limit regulations, USCF does not anticipate significant negative impact on the ability of US12OF to achieve its investment objective. However, as of the filing of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, additional studies are required to be conducted before all requirements of the final rules are implemented, and therefore, it cannot be determined with certainty what impact such regulations will have on US12OF.
"Swap" Transactions
The Dodd-Frank Act imposes new regulatory requirements on certain "swap" transactions that US12OF is authorized to engage in that may ultimately impact the ability of US12OF to meet its investment objective. On April 27, 2011, the CFTC and the SEC proposed joint rules defining the term "swap" and thus providing more clarity regarding which transactions will be regulated as such under the Dodd-Frank Act. However, the CFTC and SEC have not implemented final regulations on this issue and it is therefore still uncertain which types of transactions will be ultimately regulated as "swaps." The proposed rule defining "swap" and "security-based swap" has not been finalized as of the filing of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.
The Dodd-Frank Act requires that certain transactions ultimately falling within the definition of "swap" be executed on organized exchanges or "swap execution facilities" and cleared through regulated clearing organizations (which are referred to in the Dodd-Frank Act as "derivative clearing organizations" ("DCOs")). However, as described above, it is currently unknown which swaps will be subject to such trading and clearing requirements. If a swap is required to be cleared, the initial margin will be set by the clearing organization, subject to certain regulatory requirements and guidelines. Initial and variation margin requirements for swap dealers and major swap participants who enter into uncleared swaps and capital requirements for swap dealers and major swap participants who enter into both cleared and uncleared trades will be set by the CFTC, the SEC or the applicable Prudential Regulator. In general, increased regulation of, and the imposition of additional costs on, swap transactions could have an adverse effect on US12OF by, for example, reducing the size of and therefore liquidity in the derivatives market, increasing transaction costs and decreasing the ability to customize derivative transactions. The final rule regarding review of swaps for mandatory clearing went effective September 26, 2011.
On July 14, 2011, the CFTC issued an order providing temporary relief from certain swaps-related provisions of Title VII that would have automatically taken effect on July 16, 2011. The final order granted temporary exemptive relief that, by its terms, expires upon the earlier of the effective date of the required final rulemaking or December 31, 2011. On October 18, 2011, the CFTC issued an order, which modifies the July 14, 2011 order by extending the temporary exemptive relief to the earlier of the effective date of the required final rulemaking or July 16, 2012.
On February 7, 2012, the CFTC published a rule requiring each futures commission merchant ("FCM") and DCO to segregate cleared swaps and related collateral posted by a customer of the FCM from the assets of the FCM or DCO, although such property can be commingled with the property of other cleared swaps customers of the FCM or DCO. This rule addresses losses incurred by a DCO in a so-called "double default" scenario in which a customer of a FCM defaults in its obligations to the FCM and the FCM, in turn, defaults in its obligations to the DCO. Under this scenario, the DCO can only access the collateral attributable to other customers of the DCO whose cleared swap positions are in a loss position following the primary customer's default. This rule is scheduled to become effective on November 8, 2012. Some market participants have expressed concern that the requirements of this segregation rule may result in higher initial margins or higher fees. US12OF does not anticipate any impact to its operations in order to meet the requirements of the new rule.
Additionally, the CFTC published rules on February 17, 2012 and April 3, 2012 that require "swap dealers" and "major swap participants" to: 1) adhere to business conduct standards, 2) implement policies and procedures to ensure compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act and 3) maintain records of such compliance. These new requirements may impact the documentation requirements for both cleared and non-cleared swaps and cause swap dealers and major swap participants to face increased compliance costs that, in turn, may be passed along to counterparties (such as US12OF) in the form of higher fees and expenses that related to trading swaps.
Finally, on February 24, 2012, the CFTC amended certain disclosure obligations to require that the operator of a commodity pool that invests in swaps include standardized swap risk disclosures in the pool's disclosure documents by December 31, 2012.
The effect of the future regulatory change on US12OF is impossible to predict, but it could be substantial and adverse.
USCF, which is registered as a commodity pool operator ("CPO") with the CFTC, is authorized by the Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership of US12OF (the "LP Agreement") to manage US12OF. USCF is authorized by US12OF in its sole judgment to employ and establish the terms of employment for, and termination of, commodity trading advisors or FCMs.
Price Movements
Crude oil futures prices were volatile during the three months ended March 31, 2012 and exhibited moderate daily swings finished the period with a sharp downward trend. The average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts started the period at $98.85 per barrel. Average prices hit a peak on February 24, 2012 at $110.03 per barrel. The low of the period was on February 2, 2012 when prices reached $98.05 per barrel. The period ended with the average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts at $104.63 per barrel, up approximately 5.85% over the period. US12OF's per unit NAV started the period at $43.46. US12OF's per unit NAV reached its high for the period on February 24, 2012 at $48.23 and reached its low for the period on February 2, 2012 at $43.10. The per unit NAV on March 31, 2012 was $45.81, up approximately 5.41% over the period. The average Benchmark Oil Futures Contract prices listed above began with the February 2012 to January 2013 contracts and ended with the May 2012 to April 2013 contracts. The increase of approximately 5.85% on the average price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contracts listed above is a hypothetical return only and could not actually be achieved by an investor holding Oil Futures Contracts. An investment in Oil Futures Contracts would need to be rolled forward during the time period described in order to achieve such a result. Furthermore, the change in the nominal price of these differing crude Oil Futures Contracts, measured from the start of the period to the end of the period, does not represent the actual benchmark results that US12OF seeks to track, which are more fully described below in the section titled "Tracking US12OF's Benchmark."
During the three months ended March 31, 2012, the level of contango remained mild, meaning that the price of the near month crude Oil Futures Contract was less than the price of the next month crude Oil Futures Contract, or contracts further away from expiration. Crude oil inventories, which reached historic levels in January 2009 and February 2009 and which appeared to be the primary cause of the steep level of contango, began to drop in March 2009 and continued to drop for the remainder of 2009 and the beginning of 2010. During the year ended December 31, 2010, crude oil inventories began to climb higher, however, beginning mid-2011, crude-oil inventories outside the U.S. had drawn to their lowest levels in nine years. Although the market is tight, product prices and global markets are keeping prices low and the futures market in contango, when otherwise due to inventory it would be more in a backwardation environment. During the year ended December 31, 2011, crude oil inventories began to decline which contributed to the crude oil futures market remaining in contango through the end of December 2011. During the three months ended March 31, 2012, crude oil inventories began to decline which contributed to the mild level of contango through the end of March 31, 2012. For a discussion of the impact of backwardation and contango on total returns, see "Term Structure of Crude Oil Prices and the Impact on Total Returns" below.
Valuation of Oil Futures Contracts and the Computation of the Per Unit NAV
The per unit NAV of US12OF's units is calculated once each NYSE Arca trading day. The per unit NAV for a particular trading day is released after 4:00 p.m. New York time. Trading during the core trading session on the NYSE Arca typically closes at 4:00 p.m. New York time. US12OF's administrator uses the NYMEX closing price (determined at the earlier of the close of the NYMEX or 2:30 p.m. New York time) for the contracts held on the NYMEX, but calculates or determines the value of all other US12OF investments, including ICE Futures contracts or other futures contracts, as of the earlier of the close of the NYSE Arca or 4:00 p.m. New York time.
Results of Operations and the Crude Oil Market
Results of Operations. On December 6, 2007, US12OF listed its units on the American Stock Exchange (the "AMEX") under the ticker symbol "USL." On that day, US12OF established its initial offering price at $50.00 per unit and issued 300,000 units to the initial authorized purchaser, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., in exchange for $15,001,000 in cash. As a result of the acquisition of the AMEX by NYSE Euronext, US12OF's units no longer trade on the AMEX and commenced trading on the NYSE Arca on November 25, 2008.
Since its initial offering of 11,000,000 units, US12OF has registered one subsequent offering of its units: 100,000,000 units which were registered with the SEC on March 31, 2009. Units offered by US12OF in the subsequent offerings were sold by it for cash at the units' per unit NAV as described in the applicable prospectus. As of March 31, 2012, US12OF had issued 11,400,000 units, 3,750,000 of which were outstanding. As of March 31, 2012, there were 99,600,000 units registered but not yet issued.
More units may have been issued by US12OF than are outstanding due to the redemption of units. Unlike funds that are registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, units that have been redeemed by US12OF cannot be resold by US12OF. As a result, US12OF contemplates that additional offerings of its units will be registered with the SEC in the future in anticipation of additional issuances and redemptions.
For the Three Months Ended March 31, 2012 Compared to the Three Months Ended March 31, 2011
As of March 31, 2012, the total unrealized gain on Oil Futures Contracts owned or held on that day was $11,303,840 and US12OF established cash deposits and investments in short-term obligations of the United States of two years or less ("Treasuries") and money market funds that were equal to $160,740,385. US12OF held 84.89% of its cash assets in overnight deposits and money market funds at its custodian bank, while 15.11% of the cash balance was held as margin deposits for the Oil Futures Contracts purchased. The ending per unit NAV on March 31, 2012 was $45.81.
By comparison, as of March 31, 2011, the total unrealized gain on Oil Futures Contracts owned or held on that day was $38,559,130 and US12OF established cash deposits and investments in money market funds that were equal to $247,920,079. US12OF held 101.75% of its cash assets in overnight deposits and money market funds at its custodian bank, while (1.75)% of the cash balance was held as margin deposits for the Oil Futures Contracts purchased. The decrease in cash assets in overnight deposits, Treasuries and money market funds for March 31, 2012, as compared to March 31, 2011, was the result of US12OF's smaller size as measured by total net assets during the three months ended March 31, 2012. The ending per unit NAV on March 31, 2011 was $48.50. The decrease in the per unit NAV for March 31, 2012, as compared to March 31, 2011, was primarily a result of lower prices for crude oil and the related decrease in the value of the Oil Futures Contracts that US12OF had invested in between the period ended March 31, 2011 and the period ended March 31, 2012.
Portfolio Expenses. US12OF's expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees, the fees and expenses of the independent directors of USCF and expenses relating to tax accounting and reporting requirements. The management fee that US12OF pays to USCF is calculated as a percentage of the total net assets of US12OF. US12OF pays USCF a management fee of 0.60% of its average daily total net assets. The fee is accrued daily and paid monthly.
During the three months ended March 31, 2012, the average daily total net assets of US12OF were $171,528,356. The management fee incurred by US12OF during the period amounted to $255,887. By comparison, during the three months ended March 31, 2011, the average daily total net assets of US12OF were $220,567,399. The management fee paid by US12OF during the period amounted to $326,319.
In addition to the management fee, US12OF pays all brokerage fees and other expenses, including tax reporting costs, licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, ongoing registration or other fees paid to the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") and any other regulatory agency in connection with offers and sales of its units subsequent to the initial offering and all legal, accounting, printing and other expenses associated therewith. The total of these fees and expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2012 was $59,829, as compared to $136,166 for the three months ended March 31, 2011. The decrease in total expenses excluding management fees for the three months ended March 31, 2012 as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2011, was primarily due to the decrease in the relative size of US12OF during the three months ended March 31, 2012. For the three months ended March 31, 2012, US12OF incurred $2,366 in ongoing registration fees and other expenses relating to the registration and offering of additional units. By comparison, for the three months ended March 31, 2011, US12OF incurred $2,322 in ongoing registration fees and other expenses relating to the registration and offering of additional units. The registration fees and expenses incurred by US12OF for the three months ended March 31, 2012, as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2011, were approximately the same.
US12OF is responsible for paying its portion of the directors' and officers' liability insurance of US12OF and the United States Oil Fund, LP, the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP, the United States Gasoline Fund, LP, the United States Heating Oil Fund, LP, the United States Short Oil Fund, LP, the United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund, LP , the United States Brent Oil Fund, LP, the United States Commodity Index Fund, the United States Copper Index Fund, the United States Agriculture Index Fund and the United States Metals Index Fund (collectively, the "Related Public Funds") and the fees and expenses of the independent directors who also serve as audit committee members of US12OF and the Related Public Funds organized as limited partnerships and, as of July 8, 2011, the Related Public Funds organized as a series of a Delaware statutory trust. US12OF shares the fees and expenses with each Related Public Fund, as described above, based on the relative assets of each fund computed on a daily basis. These fees and expenses for the year ending December 31, 2012 are estimated to be a total of $540,000 for US12OF and the Related Public Funds. By . . .
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