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ORLY > SEC Filings for ORLY > Form 10-Q on 6-Nov-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC


6-Nov-2009

Quarterly Report


ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Unless otherwise indicated, "we," "us," "our" and similar terms, as well as references to the "Company" or "O'Reilly" refer to O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. and its Subsidiaries.

Forward-Looking Statements

We claim the protection of the safe-harbor for forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as "expect," "believe," "anticipate," "should," "plan," "intend," "estimate," "project," "will" or similar words. In addition, statements contained within this quarterly report that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements, such as statements discussing among other things, expected growth, store development, integration and expansion strategy, business strategies, future revenues and future performance. These forward-looking statements are based on estimates, projections, beliefs and assumptions and are not guarantees of future events and results. Such statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, but not limited to, competition, product demand, the market for auto parts, the economy in general, inflation, consumer debt levels, governmental approvals, our ability to hire and retain qualified employees, risks associated with the integration of acquired businesses including the acquisition of CSK Auto Corporation ("CSK"), weather, terrorist activities, war and the threat of war. Actual results may materially differ from anticipated results described or implied in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the "Risk Factors" section of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008, for additional factors that could materially affect our financial performance.

Overview

We are one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts,
tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States, selling our
products to both do-it-yourself ("DIY") customers and professional installers.
At September 30, 2009, we operated 3,415 stores in 38 states. The table below
depicts our store activity from January 1, 2008, through September 30, 2009:



                                                    Store Count
                      O'Reilly      Checker      Schuck's      Kragen      Murray's      Total
 January 1, 2008         1,830           -             -           -             -       1,830
 New                       154            2             1           1            -         158
 CSK Acquisition            -           489           217         495           141      1,342
 Merged                     -           (35 )          -           -             -         (35 )
 Converted                  51          (51 )          -           -             -          -
 Closed                     (4 )         (3 )          (2 )        (1 )          -         (10 )

 December 31, 2008       2,031          402           216         495           141      3,285
 New                       139           -              1          -             -         140
 Merged                     -            (6 )          -           -             -          (6 )
 Converted                 213          (72 )          -           -           (141 )       -
 Closed                     -            (2 )          -           (2 )          -          (4 )

 September 30, 2009      2,383          322           217         493            -       3,415

Our stores carry an extensive product line, including the products bulleted below:

• new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, such as alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, brake system components, batteries, belts, hoses, chassis parts and engine parts;

• maintenance items, such as oil, antifreeze, fluids, filters, wiper blades, lighting, engine additives and appearance products;

• accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories; and

• a complete line of auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools and professional service equipment.

Our strategy continues to be the opening of new stores to achieve greater penetration in existing markets and expansion into new, contiguous markets. We plan to open approximately 150 stores in 2009. We typically open new stores either by (i) constructing a new store at a site we purchase or lease and stocking the new store with fixtures and inventory, (ii) acquiring an independently owned auto parts store, typically by the purchase of substantially all of the inventory and other assets (other than realty) of such store, or
(iii) purchasing multi-store chains. We feel that our dual market strategy of targeting both the do-it-yourself retail customer and commercial installer positions the company extremely well to take advantage of growth in the automotive aftermarket business. We believe our investment in store growth will be funded with the cash flows generated by our existing operations and through available borrowings under our current credit facility.


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We view the following factors to be the key drivers of current and future demand for the products we sell:

Number of miles driven and number of registered vehicles:

Total miles driven in the U.S. heavily influences the demand for the repair and maintenance products we sell. The long-term trend in the number of vehicles on the road and the total miles driven in the U.S. has exhibited steady growth over the past decade. Between 1999 and 2007, the total number of miles driven in the United States increased at an annual rate of approximately 1.6%. According to the Department of Transportation, estimated total number of miles driven declined by 3.6% in 2008 and is flat through the first eight months of 2009. The relatively flat number of miles driven thus far in 2009 as compared to 2008 is due to lower fuel costs compared to those in 2008, but the overall decrease in miles driven in recent years is a result of challenging macroeconomic conditions. The total number of registered vehicles on the road has increased from 201 million light vehicles in 1999 to 242 million in 2008. We believe that the decrease in miles driven in 2008 and the relatively flat number of miles driven through the first eight months of 2009 is a short-term trend, and that long-term miles driven will increase in the future because of the increasing number of vehicles on the road.

Average vehicle age:

Changes in the average age of vehicles on the road impacts demand for automotive aftermarket products. As the average age of a vehicle increases, the vehicle goes through more routine maintenance cycles requiring replacement parts such as brakes, belts, hoses, batteries and filters. The sales of these products are a key component of our business. As reported by the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association ("AAIA") the average age of the United States vehicle population has increased over the past decade from 9.1 years for passenger cars and 8.5 years for light trucks in 1999 to 10.6 and 9.3 years, respectively, in 2008. Based on estimates provided by the AAIA, new car sales decreased 4.7% between 1999 and 2007 for the light vehicle market; however, sales for the same market decreased 18.5% in 2008. In light of the dramatic decrease in the sale of new cars and light trucks in 2008, we expect that consumers will continue to choose to keep their vehicles longer and drive them at higher mileages and that this increasing trend in average vehicle age will continue.

Unperformed maintenance:

According to estimates compiled by the AAIA, the annual amount of unperformed or underperformed maintenance in the United States totaled $50 billion for 2008. This metric represents the degree to which routine vehicle maintenance recommended by the manufacturer is not being performed. Consumer decisions to avoid or defer maintenance affect demand for our products and the total amount of unperformed maintenance represents potential future demand. We believe that challenging macroeconomic conditions in 2008 contributed to the amount of unperformed maintenance; however, with the reduced number of new car sales, we believe the amount of underperformed maintenance is decreasing as people place a higher focus on maintaining their current vehicle with the expectation of keeping the vehicle longer than they would have in a better macroeconomic environment.

Product quality differentiation:

We provide our customers with an assortment of products that are differentiated by quality and price for most of the product lines we offer. For many of our product offerings, this quality differentiation reflects "good", "better", and "best" alternatives. Our sales and total gross margin dollars are highest for the "best" quality category of products. Consumers' willingness to select products at a higher point on the value spectrum is a driver of sales and profitability in our industry. We believe that the average consumer's tendency has been to "trade-down" to lower quality products during the recent challenging economic conditions. We have ongoing initiatives targeted to marketing higher quality products to our customers and expect our customers to be more willing to return to purchasing up on the value spectrum in the future.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

The preparation of our financial statements in accordance with accounting policies generally accepted in the United States ("GAAP") requires the application of certain estimates and judgments by management. Management bases its assumptions, estimates, and adjustments on historical experience, current trends and other factors believed to be relevant at the time the consolidated financial statements are prepared. Management believes that the following policies are critical due to the inherent uncertainty of these matters and the complex and subjective judgments required to establish these estimates. Management continues to review these critical accounting policies and estimates to ensure that the consolidated financial statements are presented fairly in accordance with GAAP. However, actual results could differ from our assumptions and estimates and such differences could be material.

• Vendor concessions - We receive concessions from our vendors through a variety of programs and arrangements, including co-operative advertising, allowances for warranties, merchandise allowances and volume purchase rebates. Co-operative advertising allowances that are incremental to our advertising program, specific to a product or event and identifiable for accounting purposes, are reported as a reduction of advertising expense in the period in which the advertising occurred. All other material vendor concessions are recognized as a reduction to the cost of inventory. Amounts receivable from vendors also include amounts due to us, relating to vendor purchases and product returns. Management regularly reviews amounts receivable from vendors and assesses the need for a reserve for uncollectible amounts based on our evaluation of our vendors' financial position and corresponding ability to meet their financial obligations. Based on our historical results and current assessment, we have not


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recorded a reserve for uncollectible amounts in our consolidated financial statements, and we do not believe there is a reasonable likelihood that our ability to collect these amounts will differ from our expectations. The eventual ability of our vendors to pay us the obliged amounts could differ from our assumptions and estimates, and we may be exposed to losses or gains that could be material.

• Self-Insurance Reserves - We use a combination of insurance and self-insurance mechanisms to provide for potential liabilities from workers' compensation, general liability, vehicle liability, property loss, and employee health care benefits. With the exception of employee health care benefit liabilities, which are limited by the design of these plans, we obtain third-party insurance coverage to limit our exposure for any individual claim. When estimating our self-insurance liabilities, we consider a number of factors, including historical claims experience and trend-lines, projected medical and legal inflation, and growth patterns and exposure forecasts. The assumptions made by management as they relate to each of these factors represent our judgment as to the most probable cumulative impact of each factor to our future obligations. Our calculation of our self-insurance liabilities requires management to apply judgment to estimate the ultimate cost to settle reported claims and claims incurred but not yet reported as of the balance sheet date and the application of alternative assumptions would result in a different estimate of these liabilities. Actual claim activity or development may vary from our assumptions and estimates, which may result in material losses or gains. As we obtain additional information that affects the assumptions and estimates we used to recognize liabilities for claims incurred in prior accounting periods, we adjust our self-insurance liabilities to reflect the revised estimates based on this additional information. The long-term portions of these liabilities are recorded at our estimate of their net present value. These liabilities do not have scheduled maturities, but we can estimate the timing of future payments based upon historical patterns. We could apply alternative assumptions regarding the timing of payments or the applicable discount rate that could result in materially different estimates of the net present value of the liabilities. If self-insurance reserves were changed 10% from our estimated reserves at December 31, 2008, the financial impact would have been approximately $8.6 million or 2.8% of pretax income for the year ended December 31, 2008.

• Accounts receivable - Management estimates the allowance for doubtful accounts based on historical loss ratios and other relevant factors. Actual results have consistently been within management's expectations, and we do not believe that there is a reasonable likelihood that there will be a material change in the future that will require a significant change in the assumptions or estimates we use to calculate our allowance for doubtful accounts. However, if actual results differ from our estimates, we may be exposed to losses or gains. If the allowance for doubtful accounts were changed 30% from our estimated allowance at December 31, 2008, the financial impact would have been approximately $1.4 million or 0.4% of pretax income for the year ended December 31, 2008.

• Taxes - We operate within multiple taxing jurisdictions and are subject to audit in these jurisdictions. These audits can involve complex issues, which may require an extended period of time to resolve. We regularly review our potential tax liabilities for tax years subject to audit. The amount of such liabilities is based on various factors, such as differing interpretations of tax regulations by the responsible tax authority, experience with previous tax audits and applicable tax law rulings. Changes in our tax liability may occur in the future as our assessments change based on the progress of tax examinations in various jurisdictions and/or changes in tax regulations. In management's opinion, adequate provisions for income taxes have been made for all years presented. The estimates of our potential tax liabilities contain uncertainties because management must use judgment to estimate the exposures associated with our various tax positions and actual results could differ from our estimates. Alternatively, we could have applied assumptions regarding the eventual outcome of the resolution of open tax positions that would differ from our current estimates but that would still be reasonable given the nature of a particular position. Our judgment regarding the most likely outcome of uncertain tax positions has historically resulted in an estimate of our tax liability that is greater than actual results. While our estimates are subject to the uncertainty noted in the preceding discussion, our initial estimates of our potential tax liabilities have historically not been materially different from actual results except in instances where we have reversed liabilities that were recorded for periods that were subsequently closed with the applicable taxing authority.

• Inventory Obsolescence and Shrink - Inventory, which consists of automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and tools, is stated at the lower of cost or market. The extended nature of the life cycle of our products is such that the risk of obsolescence of our inventory is minimal. The products that we sell generally have application in our markets for a relatively long period of time in conjunction with the corresponding vehicle population. We have developed sophisticated systems for monitoring the life cycle of a given product and, accordingly, have historically been very successful in adjusting the volume of our inventory in conjunction with a decrease in demand. We do record a reserve to reduce the carrying value of our inventory through a charge to cost of sales in the isolated instances where we believe that the market value of a product line is lower than our recorded cost. This reserve is based on our assumptions about the marketability of our existing inventory and is subject to uncertainty to the extent that we must estimate, at a given point in time, the market value of inventory that will be sold in future periods. Ultimately, our projections could differ from actual results and could result in a material impact to our stated inventory balances. We have historically not had to materially adjust our obsolescence reserves due to the factors discussed above and do not anticipate that we will experience material changes in our estimates in the future.


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We also record a reserve to reduce the carrying value of our perpetual inventory to account for quantities in our perpetual records above the actual existing quantities on hand caused by shrink. We estimate this reserve based on the results of our extensive and frequent cycle counting programs and periodic physical inventories at our stores and distribution centers. To the extent that our estimates do not accurately reflect the actual inventory shrinkage, we could potentially experience a material impact to our inventory balances. We have historically been able to provide a timely and accurate measurement of shrink and have not experienced material adjustments to our estimates. If shrink changed 10% from the estimate that we recorded based on our historical experience at December 31, 2008, the financial impact would have been approximately $0.9 million or 0.3% of pretax income for the year ended December 31, 2008.

• Valuation of Long-Lived Assets and Goodwill - We evaluate the carrying value of long-lived assets whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that a potential impairment has occurred. As part of the evaluation, we review performance at the store level to identify any stores with current period operating losses that should be considered for impairment. A potential impairment has occurred if the projected future undiscounted cash flows realized from the best possible use of the asset are less than the carrying value of the asset. The estimate of cash flows includes management's assumptions of cash inflows and outflows directly resulting from the use of that asset in operations. If the carrying amount of an asset exceeds its estimated future cash flows, an impairment charge is recognized for the amount by which the carrying amount of the asset exceeds the fair value of the asset. Our impairment analyses contain estimates due to the inherently judgmental nature of forecasting long-term estimated cash flows and determining the ultimate useful lives and fair values of the assets. Actual results could differ from these estimates, which could materially impact our impairment assessment.

We review goodwill and other intangible assets for impairment annually or when events or changes in circumstances indicate the carrying value of these assets might exceed their current fair values. We have not historically recorded a material impairment to our goodwill or intangible assets. The process of evaluating goodwill for impairment involves the determination of the fair value of our Company. Inherent in such fair value determinations are certain judgments and estimates, including estimates which incorporate assumptions marketplace participants would use in making their estimates of fair value. In the future, if events or market conditions affect the estimated fair value to the extent that an asset is impaired, we will adjust the carrying value of these assets in the period in which the impairment occurs, however, we do not believe there has been any change of events or circumstances that would indicate that a reevaluation of goodwill or other intangible assets is required as of September 30, 2009, nor do we believe goodwill or any other intangible assets are at risk of failing impairment testing.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Sales increased $147 million, or 13% from $1.11 billion in the third quarter of 2008, to $1.26 billion in the third quarter of 2009. Sales for the first nine months of 2009 were $3.67 billion, an increase of $1.21 billion or 49% over sales for the first nine months of 2008. The following table presents the components of the increase in sales for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2009 (in millions):

                                                Increase in Sales for          Increase in Sales for
                                                 Three Months Ended              Nine Months Ended
                                                 September 30, 2009,            September 30, 2009,
                                                compared to the same              compared to the
                                                   period in 2008               same period in 2008
Comparable store sales                         $                  51.1        $                 159.0
Stores opened throughout 2008,
excluding stores open at least one year
that are included in comparable store
sales                                                             12.5                           68.3
Sales of stores opened throughout 2009                            24.2                           44.6
Non-store sales including machinery,
sales to independent parts stores and
team members                                                       2.7                            4.3
Acquired CSK store sales, excluding
sales that are included in comparable
store sales (sales after 07/11/2009,
the one year anniversary of the
acquisition)                                                      56.5                          935.2

Total increase in sales                        $                 147.0        $               1,211.4

Comparable store sales for stores operating on the O'Reilly systems increased 5.3% for the third quarter of 2009; these stores include core O'Reilly Brand stores, converted Checker stores and converted Murray's stores. Comparable store sales for stores operating on the legacy CSK systems increased 5.2% for the third quarter of 2009. Consolidated comparable store sales increased 5.3% for the third quarter of 2009. Comparable store sales for stores operating on the O'Reilly systems increased 6.4% for the first nine months of 2009. Comparable store sales for stores operating on the legacy CSK systems increased 2.9% for the first nine months of 2009. Consolidated comparable store sales increased 5.2% for the first nine months of 2009. Comparable store sales are calculated based on the change in sales of stores open at least one year and exclude sales of specialty machinery, sales to independent parts stores, sales to team members and sales during the one to two week period the CSK branded stores are closed for conversion.


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We believe that the increased sales achieved by our stores are the result of superior inventory availability, a broader selection of products offered in most stores, a targeted promotional and advertising effort through a variety of media and localized promotional events, continued improvement in the merchandising and store layouts of the stores, compensation programs for all store team members that provide incentives for performance and our continued focus on serving professional installers. We opened 32 new O'Reilly branded stores in the three months ended September 30, 2009. At September 30, 2009, we operated 3,415 stores compared to 3,277 stores at September 30, 2008. Due to the acquisition of CSK, we anticipate new store unit growth to be limited to 150 new stores in 2009, excluding the consolidation and closure of underperforming stores related to the acquisition of CSK.

Gross profit increased $104 million, or 20% from $507 million (or 45.6% of sales) in the third quarter of 2008 to $611 million (or 48.5% of sales) in the third quarter of 2009. Gross profit increased $644 million, or 58%, from $1.11 billion (or 45.2% of sales) for the nine months ended September 30, 2008, to $1.76 billion (or 47.8% of sales) for the nine months ended September 30, 2009. The increase in gross profit dollars was primarily a result of the increase in sales resulting from the acquisition of CSK and sales from new stores. The increase in gross profit as a percentage of sales is primarily the result of changes in product mix, lower product acquisition cost, distribution system improvements, sales from acquired CSK stores and a favorable pricing environment on certain commodity based products. Our product mix was improved by the continued customization of our merchandise selections at each store based on vehicle demographics and customer demands in each store's market. The product buying synergies realized were due to improved negotiating leverage with vendors as a result of large purchase volume increases driven by the CSK acquisition. Improvements in our distribution system were the result of capital projects designed to create operating expense efficiencies. Gross margin percentages on sales at CSK stores are typically higher than existing O'Reilly branded stores primarily because a greater portion of these sales are made to DIY customers, which typically have higher gross margin percentages, and overall price levels that are specific to the markets in which the acquired stores are located. The reductions in commodity prices, without corresponding decreases in retail pricing, are expected to normalize over the remainder of the year.

Selling, general and administrative expenses ("SG&A") increased $46 million, or 11%, from $415 million (or 37.3% of sales) in the third quarter of 2008 to $461 million (or 36.7% of sales) in the third quarter of 2009. The dollar increase in SG&A expenses resulted from the additional team members and other resources needed to support our increased store count. The decrease in SG&A as a percentage of sales was primarily due to a reduction in administrative overhead as we transition the CSK headquarters operations in Phoenix, Arizona to our facilities in Springfield, Missouri and increased leverage of fixed costs as a result of the increase in comparable store sales. SG&A increased $487 million, or 57%, from $858 million (or 34.8% of sales) for the nine months ended September 30, 2008, to $1.34 billion (or 36.6% of sales) for the nine months ended September 30, 2009. The increase in SG&A as a percentage of sales was attributable to the addition of the acquired CSK stores, which have a higher expense structure than the core O'Reilly store base, and the additional store payroll required to complete the ongoing product-line changeovers for acquired CSK stores.

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