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Form 10-Q for CHEVRON CORP


5-Nov-2009

Quarterly Report


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

              Third Quarter 2009 Compared with Third Quarter 2008
              And Nine Months 2009 Compared with Nine Months 2008

Key Financial Results

                          Earnings by Business Segment


                                                          Three Months Ended              Nine Months Ended
                                                             September 30                    September 30
                                                          2009            2008           2009            2008
                                                                        (Millions of dollars)

Upstream - Exploration and Production
United States                                          $      878        $ 2,187       $   1,172       $  5,977
International                                               2,762          3,995           5,256         12,581

Total Upstream                                              3,640          6,182           6,428         18,558

Downstream - Refining, Marketing and Transportation
United States                                                  34          1,014              72            336
International                                                 160            817           1,106          1,013

Total Downstream                                              194          1,831           1,178          1,349

Chemicals                                                     164             70             311            154

Total Segment Earnings                                      3,998          8,083           7,917         20,061
All Other                                                    (167 )         (190 )          (504 )       (1,025 )

Net Income Attributable to Chevron Corporation(1)(2)   $    3,831        $ 7,893       $   7,413       $ 19,036


(1) Includes foreign currency effects                  $     (170 )      $   303       $    (677 )     $    384


(2) Also referred to as "earnings" in the discussions that follow.

Net income attributable to Chevron Corporation for the third quarter 2009 was $3.83 billion ($1.92 per share - diluted), compared with $7.89 billion ($3.85 per share - diluted) in the corresponding 2008 period. Net income attributable to Chevron Corporation for the first nine months of 2009 was $7.41 billion
($3.71 per share - diluted), versus $19.04 billion ($9.23 per share - diluted)
in the 2008 first nine months.

Upstream earnings in the third quarter 2009 were $3.64 billion, compared with $6.18 billion in the 2008 quarter. Earnings for the first nine months of 2009 were $6.43 billion, versus $18.56 billion a year earlier. The decrease between both comparative periods was due mainly to lower prices for crude oil and natural gas.

Downstream earnings were $194 million in the third quarter 2009, compared with $1.83 billion in the year-earlier period. Earnings for the first nine months of 2009 were $1.18 billion, versus $1.35 billion in the corresponding 2008 period. Earnings for the first nine months of 2009 included $540 million of gains in the first half of the year on sales of marketing businesses outside the United States.

Chemicals earned $164 million and $311 million for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2009, respectively. Comparative amounts in 2008 were $70 million and $154 million. Earnings increased on lower utility and manufacturing costs in Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC and higher margins on the sale of lubricant and fuel additives by Chevron's Oronite subsidiary.

Refer to pages 27 through 30 for additional discussion of results by business segment and "All Other" activities for the third quarter and first nine months of 2009 versus the same periods in 2008.


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Business Environment and Outlook

Chevron is a global energy company with significant business activities in the following countries: Angola, Argentina, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Canada, Chad, China, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Denmark, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the Philippines, Republic of the Congo, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Kingdom, the United States, Venezuela, and Vietnam.

Earnings of the company depend largely on the profitability of its upstream (exploration and production) and downstream (refining, marketing and transportation) business segments. The single biggest factor that affects the results of operations for both segments is movement in the price of crude oil. In the downstream business, crude oil is the largest cost component of refined products. The overall trend in earnings is typically less affected by results from the company's chemicals business and other activities and investments. Earnings for the company in any period may also be influenced by events or transactions that are infrequent and/or unusual in nature.

In recent years and through most of 2008, Chevron and the oil and gas industry at large experienced an increase in certain costs that exceeded the general trend of inflation in many areas of the world. This increase in costs affected the company's operating expenses and capital programs for all business segments, but particularly for upstream. These cost pressures began to soften somewhat in late 2008, and the general trend has continued into 2009. The company is actively managing its schedule of work, contracting, procurement and supply-chain activities to capture the value associated with this decline in costs. (Refer to the "Upstream" section below for a discussion of the trend in crude-oil prices.)

The company's operations, especially upstream, can also be affected by changing economic, regulatory and political environments in the various countries in which it operates, including the United States. Civil unrest, acts of violence or strained relations between a government and the company or other governments may impact the company's operations or investments. Those developments have at times significantly affected the company's operations and results and are carefully considered by management when evaluating the level of current and future activity in such countries.

To sustain its long-term competitive position in the upstream business, the company must develop and replenish an inventory of projects that offer adequate financial returns for the investment required. Identifying promising areas for exploration, acquiring the necessary rights to explore for and to produce crude oil and natural gas, drilling successfully, and handling the many technical and operational details in a safe and cost-effective manner are all important factors in this effort. Projects often require long lead times and large capital commitments. From time to time, certain governments have sought to renegotiate contracts or impose additional costs on the company. Governments may attempt to do so in the future. The company will continue to monitor these developments, take them into account in evaluating future investment opportunities, and otherwise seek to mitigate any risks to the company's current operations or future prospects.

The company also continually evaluates opportunities to dispose of assets that are not expected to provide sufficient long-term value or to acquire assets or operations complementary to its asset base to help augment the company's growth. Refer to the "Results of Operations" section beginning on page 27 for discussions of net gains on asset sales during the first nine months of 2009. Asset dispositions and restructurings may also occur in future periods and could result in significant gains or losses.

The company continues to closely monitor developments in the financial and credit markets, the level of worldwide economic activity and the implications to the company of movements in prices for crude oil and natural gas. Management is taking these developments into account in the conduct of daily operations and for business planning. The company remains confident of its underlying financial strength to deal with potential problems presented in this environment. (Refer also to discussion of the company's liquidity and capital resources on page 34.)

Comments related to earnings trends for the company's major business areas are as follows:

Upstream Earnings for the upstream segment are closely aligned with industry price levels for crude oil and natural gas. Crude-oil and natural-gas prices are subject to external factors over which the company has no control,


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including product demand connected with global economic conditions, industry inventory levels, production quotas imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), weather-related damage and disruptions, competing fuel prices, and regional supply interruptions or fears thereof that may be caused by military conflicts, civil unrest or political uncertainty. Moreover, any of these factors could also inhibit the company's production capacity in an affected region. The company monitors developments closely in the countries in which it operates and holds investments, and attempts to manage risks in operating its facilities and business. Besides the impact of the fluctuation in prices for crude oil and natural gas, the longer-term trend in earnings for the upstream segment is also a function of other factors, including the company's ability to find or acquire and efficiently produce crude oil and natural gas, changes in fiscal terms of contracts and changes in tax laws and regulations.

Price levels for capital and exploratory costs and operating expenses associated with the efficient production of crude oil and natural gas can also be subject to external factors beyond the company's control. External factors include not only the general level of inflation but also commodity prices and prices charged by the industry's material- and service-providers, which can be affected by the volatility of the industry's own supply-and-demand conditions for such materials and services. Capital and exploratory expenditures and operating expenses also can be affected by damage to production facilities caused by severe weather or civil unrest. The chart below shows the trend in benchmark prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and U.S. Henry Hub natural gas. During 2008, industry price levels for WTI averaged $100 per barrel. The WTI price peaked at $147 in July 2008 and fell sharply to $45 at the end of the year. The WTI price in the first nine months of 2009 averaged $57 and ended October at about $77. The decline in prices from July 2008 is largely associated with a weakening in global economic conditions and a reduction in the demand for crude oil and petroleum products. In an October 2009 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted global demand for crude oil in 2009 would decline 1.9 percent from the 2008 level of consumption. Such a contraction in demand would be the most severe since the early 1980s. In the same report, IEA projected 2010 demand will increase 1.7 percent from expected consumption for the full-year 2009.

[[Image Removed: (LINE GRAPH)]]                    A differential in crude-oil
                                                   prices exists between
                                                   high-quality (high-gravity,
                                                   low sulfur) crudes and those
                                                   of lower-quality (low-gravity,
                                                   high sulfur). The amount of
                                                   the differential in any period
                                                   is associated with the supply
                                                   of heavy crude available
                                                   versus the demand that is a
                                                   function of number of
                                                   refineries that are able to
                                                   process this lower-quality
                                                   feedstock into light products
                                                   (motor gasoline, jet fuel,
                                                   aviation gasoline and diesel
                                                   fuel). The differential has
                                                   narrowed significantly over

the past year as production curtailments in the industry mainly have been of lower-quality crudes. Chevron produces or shares in the production of heavy crude oil in California, Chad, Indonesia, the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Venezuela and in certain fields in Angola, China and the United Kingdom North Sea. (Refer to page 33 for the company's average U.S. and international crude-oil realizations.)

In contrast to price movements in the global market for crude oil, price changes for natural gas in many regional markets are more closely aligned with supply and demand conditions in those markets. Prices at Henry Hub averaged about $3.50 per thousand cubic feet (MCF) in the first nine months of 2009, compared with about $10 for the first nine months of 2008 and almost $9 for the full-year 2008. At the end of October 2009, the Henry Hub spot price was about $4.12 per MCF. Fluctuations in the price for natural gas in the United States are closely associated with the volumes produced in North America and the level of inventory in underground storage relative to customer demand. The lower U.S. price levels in 2009 are also associated with weaker demand as a result of the economic slowdown. In an October 2009 report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted 2009 natural-gas demand in the United States would drop 2.0 percent from 2008 consumption levels and 2010 demand is expected to be about the same as in 2009.

Certain other regions of the world in which the company operates have different supply, demand and regulatory circumstances, which until recently resulted in significantly lower average sales prices than in the United States for


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the company's production of natural gas. As a result of the U.S. natural gas supply-and-demand conditions in the first nine months of 2009, the company's U.S. and international realizations were about the same. (Refer to page 33 for the company's average natural gas realizations for the U.S. and international regions.)

For the first nine months of 2009, the company's worldwide net oil-equivalent production averaged 2.68 million barrels per day. During the first half of 2009, the company's net oil production was curtailed by an average of about 40,000 barrels per day due to quotas imposed by OPEC. Curtailments by OPEC did not constrain the company's production in the third quarter 2009. About one-fifth of the company's net oil-equivalent production in the first nine months occurred in the OPEC-member countries of Angola, Nigeria and Venezuela and in the Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The company estimates that production for the full-year 2009 will be at about the same level as in the first nine months. This estimate is subject to many factors and uncertainties, including additional quotas that may be imposed by OPEC, price effects on production volumes calculated under cost-recovery and variable-royalty provisions of certain contracts, changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on the scope of company operations, delays in project startups, fluctuations in demand for natural gas in various markets, weather conditions that may shut in production, civil unrest, changing geopolitics, or other disruptions to operations. The outlook for future production levels also is affected by the size and number of economic investment opportunities and, for new large-scale projects, the time lag between initial exploration and the beginning of production. Investments in upstream projects generally begin well in advance of the start of the associated crude-oil and natural-gas production. A significant majority of Chevron's upstream investment is currently being made outside the United States.

Refer to the Results of Operations on pages 27 through 28 for additional discussion of the company's upstream business.

Downstream Earnings for the downstream segment are closely tied to margins on the refining and marketing of products that include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, fuel oil and feedstocks for chemical manufacturing. Industry margins are sometimes volatile and can be affected by the global and regional supply-and-demand balance for refined products and by changes in the price of crude oil used for refinery feedstock. Industry margins can also be influenced by refined-product inventory levels, geopolitical events, cost of materials and services, refinery maintenance programs and disruptions at refineries resulting from unplanned outages that may be due to severe weather, fires or other operational events.

Other factors affecting profitability for downstream operations include the reliability and efficiency of the company's refining and marketing network, and the effectiveness of the crude-oil and product-supply functions. Profitability can also be affected by the volatility of tanker-charter rates for the company's shipping operations, which are driven by the industry's demand for crude-oil and product tankers. Other factors beyond the company's control include the general level of inflation and energy costs to operate the company's refinery and distribution network.

The company's most significant marketing areas are the West Coast of North America, the U.S. Gulf Coast, Latin America, Asia, southern Africa and the United Kingdom. Chevron operates or has significant ownership interests in refineries in each of these areas, except Latin America. As part of its downstream strategy to focus on areas of market strength, the company completed sales of marketing businesses during the first nine months of 2009 in Brazil and certain countries in Africa.

The company's refining and marketing margins in the first nine months of 2009 were generally weak, as demand for refined products in most areas was dampened by the economic slowdown, resulting in refined-product supplies that were plentiful in most areas.

Refer to the Results of Operations on pages 29 through 30 for additional discussion of the company's downstream operations.

Chemicals Earnings in the petrochemicals business are closely tied to global chemical demand, industry inventory levels and plant capacity utilization. Feedstock and fuel costs, which tend to follow crude-oil and natural-gas price movements, also influence earnings in this segment.

Refer to the Results of Operations on page 30 for additional discussion of chemical earnings.


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Operating Developments

Recent milestones for upstream projects were achieved in:

Australia

• Final investment decision to proceed with the development of the Gorgon LNG project, in which Chevron will have an approximate 47 percent-owned and operated interest.

• Discoveries of natural gas in the Carnarvon Basin off the northwest coast in the 67 percent-owned Block WA-205-P, the 50 percent-owned Block WA-365-P and the 50 percent-owned Block WA-374-P, all Chevron-operated.

• Agreements signed with two companies to join Chevron's planned Wheatstone LNG project as combined 25 percent owners and suppliers of natural gas for the project's first two LNG trains.

Angola

• Start-up of the 31 percent-owned and operated deepwater Tombua-Landana project in Block 14, which is expected to reach maximum total production of approximately 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day in 2011.

• Discovery of crude oil and natural gas offshore in the 39 percent-owned and operated Block 0 concession, extending a trend of earlier discoveries in the Greater Vanza Longui Area.

Results of Operations

Business Segments The following section presents the results of operations for the company's business segments - upstream, downstream and chemicals - as well as for "all other" - the departments and companies managed at the corporate level. (Refer to Note 4 beginning on page 9 for a discussion of the company's "reportable segments," as defined under the accounting standards for segment reporting.)

Upstream


                                      Three Months Ended         Nine Months Ended
                                         September 30              September 30

2009 2008 2009 2008
(Millions of dollars)

U.S. Upstream Earnings $878 $2,187 $1,172 $5,977

U.S. upstream earnings of $878 million in the third quarter of 2009 decreased about $1.3 billion from the same period last year. Lower prices for crude oil and natural gas reduced earnings by about $1.9 billion between periods, while gains on asset sales were approximately $300 million lower. These effects were partly offset by a benefit to income of about $800 million due to an increase in net oil-equivalent production. An additional benefit to income of approximately $500 million from lower operating expenses was substantially offset by higher depreciation and other items. The benefit from lower operating expenses was largely associated with charges recorded in the third quarter 2008 due to hurricane damages.

Earnings for the first nine months of 2009 were approximately $1.2 billion, down about $4.8 billion from the corresponding period in 2008. Lower prices for crude oil and natural gas reduced earnings by about $5.3 billion between periods, while an increase in net oil- equivalent production benefited income by about $600 million. Other items of lesser significance were largely offsetting between periods.

The average realization per barrel for crude oil and natural gas liquids in the third quarter of 2009 was approximately $60, compared with $107 a year earlier. For the nine-month periods, average realizations were about $50 and $101 for 2009 and 2008, respectively. The average natural-gas realization in the third quarter 2009 was $3.28 per thousand cubic feet, compared with $8.64 in the year-ago period. The nine-month realizations were $3.56 in 2009 and $8.66 in 2008.


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Net oil-equivalent production of 745,000 barrels per day in the third quarter 2009 was up 98,000 barrels per day, or 15 percent, from the corresponding period in 2008. Nine-month 2009 production was 705,000 barrels per day, up 17,000 from the nine-month period of 2008. The increase in production was primarily associated with start-up of the Blind Faith Field in late 2008 and the Tahiti Field in second quarter 2009. The net liquids component of oil-equivalent production was 509,000 barrels per day and 472,000 barrels per day for the third quarter and nine months of 2009, respectively. Those volumes were about 24 percent and 10 percent higher than the corresponding 2008 periods. Net natural gas production was about 1.4 billion cubic feet per day for both the third quarter and nine months of 2009, down about 1 percent and 10 percent from the comparative 2008 periods.

                                            Three Months Ended         Nine Months Ended
                                               September 30               September 30
                                            2009          2008         2009         2008
                                                        (Millions of dollars)

   International Upstream Earnings*         $2,762       $3,995       $5,256       $12,581


   * Includes foreign currency effects      $  (81 )     $  316       $ (524 )     $   229

International upstream earnings of approximately $2.8 billion in the third quarter 2009 decreased about $1.2 billion from the corresponding period in 2008. Lower prices for crude oil and natural gas reduced earnings by about $2.3 billion between periods. Partially offsetting this effect was an approximate $1 billion benefit due to an increase in sales volumes of crude oil. Another benefit of $400 million associated with third-quarter 2009 asset sales and tax items related to the Gorgon project in Australia was substantially offset by an unfavorable swing in foreign-currency effects.

Earnings for the first nine months of 2009 were $5.3 billion, down $7.3 billion from the same period in 2008. Lower prices for crude oil and natural gas decreased earnings by $8.2 billion, while foreign-currency effects and higher expenses (operating, depreciation and exploration) reduced income by a total of $1.5 billion between periods. Partially offsetting these items were benefits of $2.1 billion resulting from an increase in sales volumes of crude oil and $400 million related to the Gorgon project (discussed above).

The average realization per barrel of crude oil and natural gas liquids in the third quarter 2009 was about $62, compared with $103 in the corresponding 2008 period. For the 2009 nine-month period, the average realization was about $52 per barrel, down from $100 in 2008. The average natural-gas realization in the 2009 third quarter was $3.92 per thousand cubic feet, down from $5.37 in the third quarter last year. Between the nine-month periods, the average natural-gas realization decreased to $3.95 from $5.21.

Net oil-equivalent production, including volumes from oil sands in Canada, was about 1.96 million barrels per day in the third quarter 2009, up about 161,000 barrels per day from the year-ago period. Included in the increase was about 220,000 barrels per day of production associated with two projects - Agbami in Nigeria, which commenced operations in the third quarter of last year, and the expansion at Tengiz in Kazakhstan. Partially offsetting this increase was production offline in the 2009 third quarter due to civil unrest in Nigeria.

Net oil-equivalent production, including volumes from oil sands in Canada, for the nine-months of 2009 was 1.97 million barrels per day, up 135,000 barrels per day from the 2008 period. Included in the increase was about 120,000 barrels per day from Agbami and approximately 70,000 barrels per day from Tengiz. Factors other than normal field declines that partially offset these increases included lower production in Thailand and the effect of civil unrest in Nigeria.

The net liquids component of oil-equivalent production, including volumes from oil sands in Canada, was 1.38 million barrels per day in both the third quarter and the nine-month period of 2009, an increase of 15 and 12 percent for the respective periods. Net natural-gas production of 3.48 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter 2009 and 3.57 billion cubic feet per day in the corresponding 2009 period decreased about 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively.


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Downstream


                                       Three Months Ended         Nine Months Ended
                                          September 30              September 30

2009 2008 2009 2008
. . .
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