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HUM > SEC Filings for HUM > Form 10-Q on 3-Nov-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for HUMANA INC


3-Nov-2009

Quarterly Report


MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF

FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

The condensed consolidated financial statements of Humana Inc. in this document present the Company's financial position, results of operations and cash flows, and should be read in conjunction with the following discussion and analysis. References to "we," "us," "our," "Company," and "Humana" mean Humana Inc. and its subsidiaries. This discussion includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. When used in filings with the SEC, in our press releases, investor presentations, and in oral statements made by or with the approval of one of our executive officers, the words or phrases like "expects," "anticipates," "believes," "intends," "likely will result," "estimates," "projects" or variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things, information set forth in Item 1A. - Risk Factors in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008 that was filed with the SEC on February 20, 2009, in each case, as modified by the changes to these risk factors included in this document and other reports we filed subsequent to February 20, 2009 and are incorporated by reference herein. In making these statements, we are not undertaking to address or update these factors in future filings or communications regarding our business or results. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events discussed in this document might not occur. There may also be other risks that we are unable to predict at this time. Any of these risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.

Overview

Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, Humana Inc. is one of the nation's largest publicly traded health and supplemental benefits companies, based on our 2008 revenues of $28.9 billion. We are a full-service benefits solutions company, offering a wide array of health and supplemental benefit products for employer groups, government benefit programs, and individuals. As of September 30, 2009, we had approximately 10.3 million members in our medical benefit plans, as well as approximately 7.3 million members in our specialty products.

We manage our business with two segments: Government and Commercial. The Government segment consists of beneficiaries of government benefit programs, and includes three lines of business: Medicare, Military, and Medicaid. The Commercial segment consists of members enrolled in our medical and specialty products marketed to employer groups and individuals. When identifying our segments, we aggregate products with similar economic characteristics. These characteristics include the nature of customer groups as well as pricing, benefits, and underwriting requirements. These segment groupings are consistent with information used by our Chief Executive Officer.

The results of each segment are measured by income before income taxes. We allocate all selling, general and administrative expenses, investment and other revenue, interest expense, and goodwill, but no other assets or liabilities, to our segments. Members served by our two segments often utilize the same medical provider networks, enabling us to obtain more favorable contract terms with providers. Our segments also share indirect overhead costs and assets. As a result, the profitability of each segment is interdependent.

Our results are impacted by many factors, but most notably are influenced by our ability to establish and maintain a competitive and efficient cost structure and to accurately and consistently establish competitive premium, ASO fee, and plan benefit levels that are commensurate with our benefit and administrative costs. Benefit costs are subject to a high rate of inflation due to many forces, including new higher priced technologies and medical procedures, new prescription drugs and therapies, an aging population, lifestyle challenges including diet and smoking, the tort liability system, and government regulation.

Our industry relies on two key statistics to measure performance. The benefit ratio, which is computed by taking total benefit expenses as a percentage of premium revenues, represents a statistic used to measure underwriting profitability. The selling, general, and administrative expense ratio, or SG&A expense ratio, which is computed by taking total selling, general and administrative expenses as a percentage of premium revenues, administrative services fees and other revenues, represents a statistic used to measure administrative spending efficiency.


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Proposed Health Insurance Initiatives

The President of the United States and members of the U.S. Congress have proposed significant reforms to the U.S. health care system. There are a number of versions of health insurance reform legislation pending and we expect increased activity in the coming weeks. These proposals include, for example, limiting Medicare payments, reducing prescription drug spending, and imposing new taxes on health insurers. In addition, certain members of Congress have proposed a single-payer health care system, a government health insurance option to compete with private plans and other expanded public health care measures. Various health insurance reform proposals have also emerged at the state level. In October, 2009, CMS proposed revisions to the administration of both the Medicare Advantage Program (Part C) and the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Program which could change the way we operate, increase our cost of doing business and/or adversely affect our profitability. In addition, CMS is continuing to perform audits of selected Medicare Advantage plans of various companies to validate the provider coding practices under the actuarial risk-adjustment model used to calculate the individual member capitation paid to Medicare Advantage plans. Several Humana contracts have been selected by CMS for audit for the 2007 year and we expect that CMS will conduct additional audits for the 2007 contract year and beyond. We are unable to estimate the financial impact of any audits that may be conducted related to 2007, 2008 or 2009 revenue and whether any findings would cause a change to our method of estimating future premium revenue. Because of the unsettled nature of these initiatives and the numerous steps required to implement them, we cannot predict what health insurance initiatives, if any, will be implemented at the federal or state level, or the effect any future legislation or regulation will have on our business. For additional discussions regarding our risks related to health insurance initiatives, see "Government Contracts" in Note 13 to the condensed consolidated financial statements included in this report, and "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in Part II of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

Government Segment

Our strategy and commitment to the Medicare programs has led to significant growth. Medicare Advantage membership increased to 1,514,800 members at September 30, 2009, up 146,800 members, or 10.7%, from 1,368,000 at September 30, 2008, primarily due to sales of preferred provider organization, or PPO products. This increase also included the impact of the October 31, 2008 Cariten acquisition, which added 46,900 Medicare HMO members. Likewise, Medicare Advantage premium revenues have increased 21.5% to $12.3 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 from $10.2 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2008. Recently the mix of sales has shifted increasingly to our network-based PPO offerings, which is particularly important given the enactment of the Medicare Improvements for Patients and Providers Act of 2008, or the Act, discussed more fully below. Medicare Advantage members enrolled in network-based products was approximately 62% at September 30, 2009 compared to 49% at September 30, 2008, with our PPO membership increasing 103.5% from September 30, 2008 to September 30, 2009.

Due to the enactment of the Act in July 2008, beginning in 2011, sponsors of Medicare Advantage Private Fee-For-Service, or PFFS, plans will be required to contract with providers to establish adequate networks, except in geographic areas that CMS determines have fewer than two network-based Medicare Advantage plans. We have 575,800 PFFS members, or approximately 38% of our total Medicare Advantage membership at September 30, 2009, down from 49% at December 31, 2008. Nearly 80% of these PFFS members at September 30, 2009 reside in geographies where we have developed a PPO network and offer a PPO plan. We are implementing various operational and strategic initiatives including further developing our PPO network and building network-based plan offerings to address the adequate network requirement.

Final 2010 Medicare Advantage rates were announced by CMS on April 6, 2009, with an effective rate decrease for the industry of 4% to 5%. Based on information available at the time we filed our 2010 bids in June 2009, we believe we have effectively designed Medicare Advantage products that address the lower rates while continuing to remain competitive compared to both the combination of original Medicare with a supplement policy as well as other Medicare Advantage competitors within our industry. In addition, we will continue to pursue our cost-reduction and outcome-enhancing strategies, including care coordination and disease management, to mitigate the adverse effects of this rate reduction on our Medicare Advantage members. Nonetheless, there can be no assurance that we will be able to successfully execute operational and strategic initiatives with respect to changes in the Medicare Advantage program. Failure to execute these strategies may result in a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows.

We also offer Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plans, or PDPs, under the Medicare Part D program. These plans provide varying degrees of coverage. In order to offer these plans in a given year, in June of the preceding year we must submit bids to CMS


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for approval. During 2008, we experienced prescription drug claim expenses for our Medicare stand-alone PDPs that were higher than we had originally assumed in the bid that we submitted to CMS in June 2007. These higher claim levels for our Medicare stand-alone PDPs reflected a combination of several variances between our actuarial bid assumptions versus our experience. These variances resulted from, among other things, differences between the actuarial utilization assumptions (which are our attempts to predict members' future utilization of drugs) in the bids for one of our plans versus our actual claims experience in 2008, as well as an increase in the percentage of higher cost members. These issues were addressed for 2009 based on enhancements made to our bid development and review processes. Our Medicare stand-alone PDP membership declined to 1,960,400 members at September 30, 2009, down 1,106,200 members from December 31, 2008 and down 1,128,600 members from September 30, 2008, resulting primarily from our competitive positioning as we realigned stand-alone PDP premium and benefit designs to correspond with our historical prescription drug claims experience. These actions also resulted in a substantial decline in our stand-alone PDP benefit ratio for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008.

Our quarterly Government segment earnings and operating cash flows are impacted by the Medicare Part D benefit design and changes in the composition of our membership. The Medicare Part D benefit design results in coverage that varies as a member's cumulative out-of-pocket costs pass through successive stages of a member's plan period which begins annually on January 1 for renewals. These plan designs generally result in us sharing a greater portion of the responsibility for total prescription drug costs in the early stages and less in the latter stages. As a result, the Government segment's benefit ratio generally improves as the year progresses. In addition, the number of low-income senior members as well as year-over-year changes in the mix of membership in our stand-alone PDP products affect the quarterly benefit ratio pattern.

Our military services business primarily consists of the TRICARE South Region contract which covers benefits for healthcare services provided to beneficiaries through March 31, 2010. In July 2009, we were notified by the Department of Defense that we were not awarded the third generation TRICARE program contract for the South Region which had been subject to competing bids. We filed a protest with the Government Accountability Office in connection with the award to another contractor citing discrepancies between the award criteria and procedures prescribed in the request for proposals issued by the DoD and those that appear to have been used by the DoD in making its contractor selection. On October 28, 2009, we learned that the GAO had upheld our protest. We anticipate the GAO will publicly release a detailed version of its protest decision expeditiously to include the grounds for the decision and the nature of relief recommended by the GAO to the DoD. At this time, we are not able to determine what actions the DoD will take in response to recommendations by the GAO, nor can we determine whether or not the protest decision by the GAO will have any effect upon the ultimate disposition of the contract award, and therefore whether or not the protest decision is material. Based on discussions with the DoD, we expect the government to exercise option period seven, which would extend the current contract through September 30, 2010. For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, premiums and ASO fees associated with the TRICARE South Region contract were $2.6 billion, or 11.3% of our total premiums and ASO fees. We are continuing to evaluate issues associated with our military services businesses such as potential impairment of certain assets primarily consisting of goodwill, which had a carrying value of $49.8 million at September 30, 2009, potential exit costs, possible asset sales, and a strategic assessment of ancillary businesses. Goodwill was not impaired at September 30, 2009.

Commercial Segment

Commercial segment pretax earnings, impacted by the economic recession and the highly competitive environment partially offset by higher investment income, decreased by $56.1 million, or 26.2%, for the 2009 period compared to the 2008 period. Commercial segment medical membership at September 30, 2009 of 3,426,900 decreased 127,100 members, or 3.6%, from September 30, 2008, despite the acquisition of Cariten in the fourth quarter of 2008 which added approximately 49,700 fully-insured members and 21,600 ASO members, as discussed more fully below. Commercial segment medical membership decreased 193,900 members, or 5.4% from December 31, 2008 to September 30, 2009. The decline in membership primarily was a result of the impact of the economic recession as well as the loss of two larger ASO accounts. The economic recession has led to increased in-group member attrition as employers


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reduce their workforce levels primarily through reductions in force of less experienced workers. As a result, we are also experiencing higher utilization of benefits, mainly in our fully-insured group accounts, primarily due to the shift in the mix of members to an older workforce having more health care needs, as well as members utilizing more benefits ahead of actual or perceived layoffs, members seeking to maximize their benefits once their deductibles are met, and increased COBRA participation. The membership declines were partially offset by enrollment gains in our individual product, a strategic area of commercial growth. Individual membership at September 30, 2009 increased 13.3% from September 30, 2008 and 10.4% from December 31, 2008. This increase in individual membership, together with administrative costs associated with increased business for our mail-order pharmacy, led to a higher Commercial segment SG&A expense ratio. We expect Commercial segment medical membership to decline by approximately 200,000 members for the full-year 2009 as compared to December 31, 2008, reflecting the impact of in-group member attrition due to workforce reductions as well as the loss of two larger ASO accounts.

Financial Position

At September 30, 2009, cash, cash equivalents and our investment securities totaled $8.7 billion, or 61.1% of total assets, with 16.7% of the $8.7 billion invested in cash and cash equivalents. Investment securities consist primarily of debt securities of investment-grade quality with an average credit rating by S&P of AA+ at September 30, 2009 and an average duration of approximately 4.1 years. Including cash and cash equivalents, the average duration of our investment portfolio was approximately 3.6 years. We had $5.5 million of mortgage-backed securities associated with Alt-A or subprime loans at September 30, 2009 and no collateralized debt obligations.

Gross unrealized losses were $68.9 million at September 30, 2009 compared to $313.0 million at December 31, 2008. Gross unrealized gains were $223.2 million at September 30, 2009 compared to $83.2 million at December 31, 2008. All issuers of securities trading at an unrealized loss remain current on all contractual payments. We believe these unrealized losses primarily were caused by an increase in market interest rates and tighter liquidity conditions in the current markets than when the securities were purchased. As of September 30, 2009, we do not intend to sell the securities with an unrealized loss position in accumulated other comprehensive income and it is not likely that we will be required to sell these securities before recovery of their amortized costs basis, and as a result, we believe that the securities with an unrealized loss are not other-than-temporarily impaired as of September 30, 2009.

During the third quarter of 2008, we realized losses of $108.3 million ($68.7 million after tax, or $0.40 per diluted common share) primarily associated with other-than-temporary impairments in our investment portfolios as well as realized losses associated with sales of distressed financial institution securities during September 2008. Of the $108.3 million, $51.9 million was allocated to the Government segment and $56.4 million was allocated to the Commercial segment. There were no material other-than-temporary impairments in the three or nine months ended September 30, 2009.

We continuously review our investment portfolios. There is a continuing risk that further declines in fair value may occur and additional material realized losses from sales or other-than- temporary impairments may be recorded in future periods.

In addition, in the fall of 2008 we terminated all fixed to variable interest-rate swap agreements outstanding associated with our senior notes based on recent changes in the credit market environment. In exchange for terminating these interest-rate swap agreements, we received cash of $93.0 million representing the fair value of the swap assets. This transaction also fixed the interest rate on our senior notes to a weighted-average rate of 6.08%. We may re-enter into swap agreements in the future depending on market conditions and other factors.

We believe our cash balances, investment securities, operating cash flows, and funds available under our credit agreement or from other public or private financing sources, taken together, provide adequate resources to fund ongoing operating and regulatory requirements, future expansion opportunities, and capital expenditures in the foreseeable future, as well as to refinance or repay debt. Our long-term debt, consisting primarily of senior notes, of $1,680.4 million represented 23.2% of total capitalization at September 30, 2009, declining from 30.3% at December 31, 2008. The earliest maturity of our senior notes is in June 2016. We have available a 5-year, $1.0 billion unsecured revolving credit agreement which expires in July 2011. As of September 30, 2009, there were no borrowings outstanding under this credit agreement.


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Certain of our subsidiaries operate in states that regulate the payment of dividends, loans, or other cash transfers to Humana Inc., the parent company, and require minimum levels of equity as well as limit investments to approved securities. The amount of dividends that may be paid to Humana Inc. by these subsidiaries, without prior approval by state regulatory authorities, is limited based on the entity's level of statutory income and statutory capital and surplus. In most states, prior notification is provided before paying a dividend even if approval is not required. During the nine months ended September 30, 2009, our subsidiaries paid dividends of $774.1 million to the parent compared to $296.0 million for the full year 2008. In addition, the parent made capital contributions to our subsidiaries of $104.3 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2009 compared to $242.8 million for the full year 2008. Exclusive of any future acquisitions, we do not anticipate significant additional funding of the subsidiaries during the fourth quarter of 2009.

Recent Acquisitions

On October 31, 2008 we acquired PHP Companies, Inc. (d/b/a Cariten Healthcare), or Cariten, for cash consideration of approximately $256.1 million. The Cariten acquisition increased our presence in eastern Tennessee, adding approximately 49,700 commercial fully-insured members, 21,600 commercial ASO members, and 46,900 Medicare HMO members. This acquisition also added approximately 85,700 Medicaid ASO members under a contract which expired on December 31, 2008 and was not renewed.

On August 29, 2008, we acquired Metcare Health Plans, Inc., or Metcare, for cash consideration of approximately $14.9 million. The acquisition expanded our Medicare HMO membership in central Florida, adding approximately 7,300 members.

On May 22, 2008, we acquired OSF Health Plans, Inc., or OSF, a managed care company serving both Medicare and commercial members in central Illinois, for cash consideration of approximately $87.3 million. This acquisition expanded our presence in Illinois, broadening our ability to serve multi-location employers with a wider range of products, including our specialty offerings. The acquisition added approximately 33,400 commercial fully-insured members, 29,700 commercial ASO members, and 14,000 Medicare HMO and PPO members.

On April 30, 2008, we acquired UnitedHealth Group's Las Vegas, Nevada individual SecureHorizons Medicare Advantage HMO business, or SecureHorizons, for cash consideration of approximately $185.3 million, plus subsidiary capital and surplus requirements of $40 million. The acquisition expanded our presence in the Las Vegas market, adding approximately 26,700 Medicare HMO members.

Recently Issued Accounting Pronouncements

Financial Instruments

In April 2009, the Financial Accounting Standards Board, or the FASB, issued new guidance to address concerns about (1) measuring the fair value of financial instruments when the markets become inactive and quoted prices may reflect distressed transactions and (2) recording impairment charges on investments in debt securities. The FASB also issued guidance to require disclosures of fair values of certain financial instruments in interim financial statements to provide financial statement users with more timely information about the effects of current market conditions on their financial instruments. The new guidance highlights and expands on the factors that should be considered in estimating fair value when the volume and level of activity for a financial asset or liability has significantly decreased and requires new disclosures relating to fair value measurement inputs and valuation techniques (including changes in inputs and valuation techniques). In addition, new guidance regarding recognition and presentation of other-than-temporary impairments changed (1) the trigger for determining whether an other-than-temporary impairment exists and
(2) the amount of an impairment charge to be recorded in earnings. We adopted the provisions of the new guidance for the quarter ended June 30, 2009. Refer to Note 4, Note 5 and Note 12 to the condensed consolidated financial statements included in this report for disclosures related to the implementation of the new guidance.

Subsequent Events

In May 2009, the FASB issued new guidance establishing general standards of accounting for disclosure of events that occur after the balance sheet date but before financial statements are issued or are available to be issued, or subsequent events. The standard is based on the same principles that currently exist in the auditing standards. We are required to disclose the date through which subsequent events have been evaluated and for certain nonrecognized subsequent events, the nature of the event and an estimate of its


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financial effect or a statement that such an estimate cannot be made. We adopted the new provisions for the quarter ended June 30, 2009. Refer to Note 1 to the condensed consolidated financial statements included in this report for the related disclosures.

Codification

In June 2009, the FASB codified existing accounting standards. The FASB Accounting Standards CodificationTM (ASC) is the source of authoritative U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) recognized by the FASB and supersedes all existing non-SEC accounting and reporting standards. All ASC content carries the same level of authority and anything outside of the ASC is nonauthoritative. We adopted the new guidance for the quarter ended September 30, 2009, which changed the way we reference accounting standards in our disclosures.

Fair Value of Liabilities

In August 2009, the FASB issued new guidance on measuring liabilities at fair value. The new guidance reaffirms that the fair value measurement of a liability assumes the transfer of a liability to a market participant as of the measurement date, whereby the liability to the counterparty is not settled but rather continues, and provides additional guidance on how to estimate the fair value of a liability in a hypothetical transaction assuming the transfer of a liability to a third party. The new provisions are effective for us beginning with the filing of our Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2009. We do not expect the adoption of these new provisions to have a material impact on our financial position or results of operations.


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Comparison of Results of Operations for 2009 and 2008

The following discussion primarily deals with our results of operations for the three months ended September 30, 2009, or the 2009 quarter, the three months ended September 30, 2008, or the 2008 quarter, the nine months ended September 30, 2009, or the 2009 period, and the nine months ended September 30, 2008, or the 2008 period.

The following table presents certain financial data for our two segments:

                                          For the three months ended
. . .
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