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| CV > SEC Filings for CV > Form 8-K on 30-Oct-2009 | All Recent SEC Filings |
30-Oct-2009
Regulation FD Disclosure
This presentation will be conducted at the Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference in Hollywood, Florida before an audience of electric industry analysts and industry professionals on November 1-3, 2009.
Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference
Hollywood, FL Nov. 1-3, 2009
Presented by Robert Young and Pamela Keefe
Safe Harbor Statement
Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical
fact are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe
harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995. Whenever used in this presentation, the words "estimate,"
"expect," "believe," or similar expressions are intended to identify
such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve
estimates, assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause
actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed
in the forward-looking statements. Actual results will depend upon,
among other things, the actions of regulators, performance of the
Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant, effects of and changes in weather
and economic conditions, volatility in wholesale power markets, our
ability to maintain our current credit ratings, performance of our
unregulated business, and other considerations such as the operations
of ISO-New England, changes in the cost or availability of capital,
authoritative accounting guidance, and the effect of the volatility
in the equity markets on pension benefit and other costs. We cannot
predict the outcome of any of these matters; accordingly, there can
be no assurance that such indicated results will be realized. We
undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise.
Investor Contact Information
Pamela J. Keefe
Sr. Vice President, CFO & Treasurer
(802) 747-5435
e-mail: pkeefe@cvps.com
CVPS Profile
· Vermont's largest integrated electric utility
· CVPS serves approximately 159,000 customers in a territory covering
half of the area of Vermont
· Rural service territory of 18 customers per mile of line
Credit Ratings Standard & Poor's Corporate Credit Rating BB+ / Stable First Mortgage Bonds BBB+ Preferred Stock B+ COMMON STOCK PROFILE (NYSE: CV) Quarter Ended September 30, 2009 Market Capitalization $225.6M Book Value $19.56 Market-to-Book 0.99 52-week range $15.16-$26.32 P/E Ratio (TTM) 12.45 Debt % - Equity % 43% - 57% Average Daily Volume 86,897 Shares Outstanding 11,687,099 |
Today's Discussion Topics
Attributes and recent accomplishments
Key measures of success
Regulatory update
Future energy planning considerations
Customer satisfaction
Infrastructure investments
Financial position and performance
Long-term strategy
Attributes & Recent Accomplishments
Lowest rates among major utilities in New England
Awarded $31M by DOE for CVPS SmartPowerTM program
CVPS Cow PowerTM : DOE 2009 Utility Green Power Program of the Year
Ranked second in East Region Midsize segment for customer satisfaction in 2009
J.D. Power survey
Met or exceeded Vermont's 17 service quality and reliability standards for
fourth straight year
Among lowest carbon-emitting power mixes in the U.S.
2007 and 2008 EEI Emergency Recovery Awards
Customer transactional satisfaction rated over 90%
Business Process Review conducted in 2008 by Huron Consulting generally
confirmed the Company's business practices are effective
Key Measures of Success
Keep customer rates low while maintaining superior reliability
Meet service quality standards
Achieve positive regulatory outcomes
Gained approval of Alternative Regulation Plan
Maintain positive, productive relationship with regulators
Participating in Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process to develop
regulatory consensus on future power supply choices
Secure stable, long-term, clean, competitively priced energy supplies
Negotiate future contracts with Entergy-Vermont Yankee and Hydro-Quebec
Meet Vermont's renewable requirements
Increase rate base on which shareholders earn a return
Complete capital projects through Asset Management Plan, including CVPS
SmartPower™
Continue capital investments in Velco
Restore corporate credit rating to investment grade
Currently BB+ from S&P
Regulatory Update
Alternative Regulation Plan Approved
2009 through 2011; can petition for extension thereafter
Working with consumer advocate and other VT stakeholders to plan for smart
grid technologies
July 1, 2009: VT PSB proposal for decision on state-wide MOU would allow
pre-approval of smart grid investments
August 2009: Submitted detailed application for federal stimulus along with the
other VT utilities ($133M statewide project cost; requested 50% from DOE)
October 2009: DOE awarded the full requested amount to the VT utilities - $69M
($31M for CV's part of the project)
Submitted detailed plan for PSB approval of scope, schedule and cost recovery
Other VT regulatory issues
IRP
Detailed portfolio evaluation scoring method developed
Used to evaluate proposals received in recent market-wide solicitation;
incorporates input from consumer advocate
Vermont 'e-State' Initiative
Governor Douglas established a goal that "by 2010, Vermont will be the first
true 'e-state' - the first state to provide universal cellular and broadband
coverage
everywhere and anywhere within its borders"
Federal stimulus funding request of VT utilities is part of the 'e-state'
initiative
Feed-in Tariff
2009 VT law establishes standard contract rates for new renewable energy
projects with a capacity of <2.2 MW
Standard rates range for $0.125 to $0.30 per kWh depending on energy source
2008 CVPS ENERGY SOURCES Nuclear 49.6% Hydro 39.1% Oil 1.1% Wood 3.7% CVPS Cow Power 0.2% Other 6.3% |
2008 U.S. ENERGY SOURCES* Coal 48.5% Gas 21.6% Nuclear 19.6% Hydro 6.0% |
Future Energy Planning Considerations
Regulatory input incorporated in evaluation and acquisition methods
during the IRP process
Evaluation Score card for new power sources
Initial screen: consistency with CVPS achieving investment grade
credit status
Portfolio expected cost and cost variability - 60% weight
Renewable/sustainable resource - 40% weight
Environmental impacts - 40% weight
Energy, technology and source diversity - 40% weight
Reliability characteristics - 40% weight
Long-Term Contract Negotiations Continuing
Hydro-Quebec
Contract proposal with Hydro-Quebec expected in 2009 or 2010
Contract may contain wind energy, in addition to hydro
Building capacity for power export a significant economic strategy
for Province of Quebec, as well as Hydro-Quebec
Vermont Yankee
Existing purchased power source for CVPS ending in 2012
Contract proposal from Entergy expected by year end 2009
NRC final decision on license extension expected in 2009
State legislative approval required under previous agreement with
Entergy. Vote expected in 2010.
Existing 10 year Revenue Sharing Agreement acts like a power asset
for CV but may be converted into new 20 year PPA
Insurance against higher (>$61mWh) future power prices from 2012
to 2022)
If VY is relicensed, CV is willing to purchase 100 MW annually under
a long-term purchase power agreement (currently purchase 180 MW)
New Portfolio Options
Resource Solicitation
"Joint RFP" with Green Mountain Power and Vermont Electric Coop for
100 MW
41 Proposals evaluated
5 Finalists selected
2 Contracts executed; 1 pending
Development risk associated with 2 of those projects
Additional RFPs expected over the next several years to complement results of the long-term contract negotiations
"Contingent RFP" with Green Mountain Power for 150 MW
Contingent on future status and purchase from Vermont Yankee
3 Finalists selected
Resolution expected in 2010
Possible Future Vermont-Based Generation
Joint utility feasibility study results released in August 2008
indicate:
A single large plant or several medium-sized baseload plants may
warrant consideration given costs, transmission constraints and
energy needs
Renewable resources could play important role in addressing Vermont's
potential supply gap
CV and other Vermont utilities have not concluded whether to pursue
construction of new Vermont-based generation plants
CV may support development of new, medium-sized, baseload, in-state
generation; and remains interested in power purchase opportunities,
if developed
Superior customer service - 2009 JD Power East Region customer survey
Overall Satisfaction Central Maine Power 649 Southern Maryland Electric Cooperative 643 PPL Electric Utilities 641 Central Vermont Public Service 618 Penelec 618 Pepco 617 Rochester Gas & Electric 613 Allegheny Power 608 Public Service Electric and Gas 608 Met-Ed 605 PECO Energy 604 Public Service of New Hampshire 604 Penn Power 598 NSTAR 597 East Region 593 Western Massachusetts Electric 592 New York State Electric & Gas 589 Atlantic City Electric 588 Appalachian Power 587 United Illuminating 587 Con Edison Company of New York 586 Jersey Central Power & Light 581 Orange & Rockland 579 Duquesne Light 576 National Grid 575 Baltimore Gas & Electric 574 Connecticut Light & Power 571 Central Hudson Gas & Electric 565 Delmarv Power 564 Long Island Power Authority 552 |
Transactional Customer Service Maintained at Superior Levels
CVPS Transactional Customer Satisfaction - 9 Qtrs
July 07 92%
Oct 07 88%
Jan 08 93%
Apr 08 90%
July 08 92%
Oct 08 93%
Jan 09 89%
Apr 09 93%
July 09 90%
GOAL: 80%
Q2 2009 Financial Results (All numbers
in 000s except per share) Q2 2009 Q2 2008 YTD 2009 YTD 2008
Operating Revenues
Retail sales $ 63,382 $ 65,573 $ 137,465 $ 140,979
Resale sales $ 17,131 16,177 $ 31,064 $ 29,679
Other $ 2,114 $ 2,737 $ 4,825 $ 5,053
Total operating revenue $ 82,627 $ 84,487 $ 173,354 $ 175,711
Operating Expenses
Purchased power $ 38,605 $ 41,282 $ 80,215 $ 84,188
Other operating expenses $ 38,499 $ 38,116 $ 78,117 $ 78,143
Income tax expense $ 760 $ 846 $ 3,636 $ 2,705
Total operating expense $ 77,864 80,244 161,968 165,036
Equity in Earnings of Affiliates $ 4,431 $ 4,014 $ 8,876 $ 8,199
Net Income $ 5,497 4,001 12,369 9,909
Earnings per share of common stock -
diluted $ 0.46 0.38 1.04 0.94
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** CV third quarter earnings will be released on Friday November 6 **
Dollars in thousands, except per share amounts Liquidity & Financing Cash Flows June 2009 June 2008 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period $ 6,722 $ 3,803 Cash provided by operating activities $ 20,542 $ 15,897 Cash used for investing activities (13,223 ) (15,877 ) Cash provided by (used for) financing activities (5,083) 2,739 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $ 8,958 $ 6,562 Forecast Velco investment of ~ $21M in December 2009 |
$5.5M of debt maturing in December 2009
Rate Base Growth
CVPS RATE BASE - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED
Dollars in millions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Projected Rate Base $236 $236 $302 $344 $381 $433 $490 $528 $562 $585
Projected CAGR of 8.95% from 2009-2014
(Will be adjusted to reflect SmartPower stimulus grant - details pending)
Major Capital Investments Necessary
Electric utilities most capital intensive sector in the economy,
according to U.S. Dept. of Commerce Office of Economic Analysis
Capital improvements essential to maintain reliable electric service
Aging T&D system; many segments 30 to 50 years old
System reliability is essential to Vermont's economy
Automation requires uninterrupted power
Aging state population relies more on power for basic daily living
Capital Spending Trends HISTORIC & PROJECTED CAPITAL SPENDING 2005 $17.5 2006 $18.0 2007 $23.0 2008 $36.8 2009 $30.2 2010 $47.6 2011 $61.1 2012 $53.5 2013 $37.0 2014 $36.6 |
Historical spending has not been inflated to 2009 dollars. Projected spending includes inflationary assumptions.
VELCO Investment Background
Vermont's transmission operator
Approx $450M of construction planned or underway
FERC-regulated
Owned by 20 Vermont utilities, including investor-owned, municipals
and cooperatives
CVPS owns 40%; equity investments generally based on VTA load share
of 43%
Independent management and board of directors
VELCO INVESTMENTS 2004 - 2011 2004 $7.0 2005 $0 2006 $23.0 2007 $53.0 2008 $3.0 2009 $21.0 2010 $43.0 2011 $12.0 |
2009 Earnings Guidance & Dividends
2009 Earnings Guidance
$1.50 - $1.65 per diluted share (updated from $1.40 - $1.60)
Guidance Drivers
Alt Reg mechanisms (PCAM, ESAM)
ESAM provides 'floor' for earnings in the regulated business
Impacts of the economy on retail sales
Dividends
$ 0.92 annual dividend
4.50% annualized dividend yield (as of October 19, 2009)
Long-term strategy is for dividend yield to remain in line with peer
utilities
Over short term, significant amount of available capital is being
deployed in infrastructure improvements
Future earnings drivers under Alt Reg plan
Annual ROE adjustment mechanism
2010 allowed ROE will be 9.59%
Future years adjust at ½ the change in the average yield on 10 Yr
Treasuries measured over last 20 trading days prior to Oct. 15
Quarterly Power Cost Adjustment Mechanism ("PCAM")
100% of fixed and 90% of variable power & transmission costs (the
latter beyond a 315k deadband)
Any variances not recovered via the PCAM become part of the ESAM
Annual Earnings Sharing Adjustment ("ESAM")
Regulated earnings will fall between -100 bp and +75 bp of allowed
ROE
Rate Base Growth
Growth in rate base, upon which we earn a return, is projected at
8.95% CAGR from 2009-2014
Long-Term Strategy
Provide superior customer service and reliability
Improve financial strength to restore our credit rating to investment grade and
to fuel capital investments in our core business and VELCO
Partner with the State and other utilities to create an affordable, reliable and
environmentally responsible electric future for Vermont
These strategies create shareholder value over the long term
APPENDIX
EEI Financial Conference
Hollywood, FL Nov. 1-3, 2009
Key Data Elements
Market Cap at 9/30/09: $225.6M
2008 Earned ROE: 8.3%
2009 Rate Base: $381M
2009 Effective Tax Rate: 32 - 34%
2009 Capex (ex. Transco): $30M
2009 Transco investment: ~ $21M (December 2009)
~5bp of ROE = $0.01eps
Corp. Credit Rating (S&P): BB+ / stable
2009 Debt maturities: $5.5M (Q4)
2008 Peak load: 414.4 MW (Jan. 3)
2008 Avg 12 month system capability: 466.5 MW
Vermont Regulators and Leadership
Key Regulators
Vermont Public Service board
Adjudicating body that issues rulings in utility matters
Three-member board, appointed by Governor
Six-year, staggered terms
Vermont Dept. of Public Service
Public Advocate
Commissioner appointed by Governor
Governor James Douglas (R)
First elected in 2002, re-elected in 2008 to serve fourth, 2-year term
Challenged by $64M budget shortfall in 2008-09 and by a General Assembly
controlled by Democrats
Does not plan to seek re-election in 2010
Key Data Elements
2008 Average Number of Customers
136,074 Residential
22,407 Commercial
35 Industrial
2008 Revenues
40% Residential
32% Commercial
11% Industrial
14% Resale Sales
3% Other Operating Revenue
Owned Generation Overview
Net Effective Capability / Generated and
Entitlement (MW) Purchased mWh
Wholly-Owned Plants
Hydro 41.2 235,464
Diesel and Gas 27.3 615
Turbine
Jointly-Owned Plants
(1)
Millstone #3 20.0 174,540
(nuclear)
Wyman #4 (oil) 10.7 905
McNeil (various) 10.7 52,903
Note: (1) includes
retired nuclear units
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