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CV > SEC Filings for CV > Form 8-K on 30-Oct-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 8-K for CENTRAL VERMONT PUBLIC SERVICE CORP


30-Oct-2009

Regulation FD Disclosure


Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure.

This presentation will be conducted at the Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference in Hollywood, Florida before an audience of electric industry analysts and industry professionals on November 1-3, 2009.

Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference Hollywood, FL Nov. 1-3, 2009
Presented by Robert Young and Pamela Keefe

Safe Harbor Statement
Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Whenever used in this presentation, the words "estimate," "expect," "believe," or similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve estimates, assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Actual results will depend upon, among other things, the actions of regulators, performance of the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant, effects of and changes in weather and economic conditions, volatility in wholesale power markets, our ability to maintain our current credit ratings, performance of our unregulated business, and other considerations such as the operations of ISO-New England, changes in the cost or availability of capital, authoritative accounting guidance, and the effect of the volatility in the equity markets on pension benefit and other costs. We cannot predict the outcome of any of these matters; accordingly, there can be no assurance that such indicated results will be realized. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Investor Contact Information

Pamela J. Keefe
Sr. Vice President, CFO & Treasurer
(802) 747-5435
e-mail: pkeefe@cvps.com

CVPS Profile

· Vermont's largest integrated electric utility
· CVPS serves approximately 159,000 customers in a territory covering half of the area of Vermont
· Rural service territory of 18 customers per mile of line

Credit Ratings          Standard & Poor's
Corporate Credit Rating BB+ / Stable
First Mortgage Bonds    BBB+
Preferred Stock         B+



COMMON STOCK PROFILE (NYSE: CV)
Quarter Ended September 30, 2009
Market Capitalization     $225.6M
Book Value                $19.56
Market-to-Book            0.99
52-week range             $15.16-$26.32
P/E Ratio (TTM)           12.45
Debt % - Equity %         43% - 57%
Average Daily Volume      86,897
Shares Outstanding        11,687,099

Annualized Dividend Yield 4.77%

Today's Discussion Topics
Attributes and recent accomplishments
Key measures of success
Regulatory update
Future energy planning considerations
Customer satisfaction
Infrastructure investments
Financial position and performance
Long-term strategy


Attributes & Recent Accomplishments
Lowest rates among major utilities in New England Awarded $31M by DOE for CVPS SmartPowerTM program CVPS Cow PowerTM : DOE 2009 Utility Green Power Program of the Year Ranked second in East Region Midsize segment for customer satisfaction in 2009 J.D. Power survey
Met or exceeded Vermont's 17 service quality and reliability standards for fourth straight year
Among lowest carbon-emitting power mixes in the U.S. 2007 and 2008 EEI Emergency Recovery Awards Customer transactional satisfaction rated over 90% Business Process Review conducted in 2008 by Huron Consulting generally confirmed the Company's business practices are effective

Key Measures of Success
Keep customer rates low while maintaining superior reliability Meet service quality standards
Achieve positive regulatory outcomes
Gained approval of Alternative Regulation Plan Maintain positive, productive relationship with regulators Participating in Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process to develop regulatory consensus on future power supply choices Secure stable, long-term, clean, competitively priced energy supplies Negotiate future contracts with Entergy-Vermont Yankee and Hydro-Quebec Meet Vermont's renewable requirements
Increase rate base on which shareholders earn a return Complete capital projects through Asset Management Plan, including CVPS SmartPower™
Continue capital investments in Velco
Restore corporate credit rating to investment grade Currently BB+ from S&P

Regulatory Update
Alternative Regulation Plan Approved
2009 through 2011; can petition for extension thereafter Working with consumer advocate and other VT stakeholders to plan for smart grid technologies
July 1, 2009: VT PSB proposal for decision on state-wide MOU would allow pre-approval of smart grid investments
August 2009: Submitted detailed application for federal stimulus along with the other VT utilities ($133M statewide project cost; requested 50% from DOE) October 2009: DOE awarded the full requested amount to the VT utilities - $69M
($31M for CV's part of the project)
Submitted detailed plan for PSB approval of scope, schedule and cost recovery

Other VT regulatory issues
IRP
Detailed portfolio evaluation scoring method developed Used to evaluate proposals received in recent market-wide solicitation; incorporates input from consumer advocate Vermont 'e-State' Initiative
Governor Douglas established a goal that "by 2010, Vermont will be the first true 'e-state' - the first state to provide universal cellular and broadband coverage
everywhere and anywhere within its borders" Federal stimulus funding request of VT utilities is part of the 'e-state' initiative
Feed-in Tariff
2009 VT law establishes standard contract rates for new renewable energy projects with a capacity of <2.2 MW
Standard rates range for $0.125 to $0.30 per kWh depending on energy source

2008 CVPS ENERGY SOURCES
Nuclear            49.6%
Hydro              39.1%
Oil                1.1%
Wood               3.7%
CVPS Cow Power     0.2%
Other              6.3%

2008 U.S. ENERGY SOURCES*
Coal       48.5%
Gas        21.6%
Nuclear    19.6%
Hydro      6.0%

Renewables 3.0%
Oil 1.1%
Other 0.1%
*Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2008, rounded to tenths of a percent.


Future Energy Planning Considerations
Regulatory input incorporated in evaluation and acquisition methods during the IRP process
Evaluation Score card for new power sources Initial screen: consistency with CVPS achieving investment grade credit status
Portfolio expected cost and cost variability - 60% weight Renewable/sustainable resource - 40% weight Environmental impacts - 40% weight
Energy, technology and source diversity - 40% weight Reliability characteristics - 40% weight

Long-Term Contract Negotiations Continuing Hydro-Quebec
Contract proposal with Hydro-Quebec expected in 2009 or 2010 Contract may contain wind energy, in addition to hydro Building capacity for power export a significant economic strategy for Province of Quebec, as well as Hydro-Quebec Vermont Yankee
Existing purchased power source for CVPS ending in 2012 Contract proposal from Entergy expected by year end 2009 NRC final decision on license extension expected in 2009 State legislative approval required under previous agreement with Entergy. Vote expected in 2010.
Existing 10 year Revenue Sharing Agreement acts like a power asset for CV but may be converted into new 20 year PPA Insurance against higher (>$61mWh) future power prices from 2012 to 2022)
If VY is relicensed, CV is willing to purchase 100 MW annually under a long-term purchase power agreement (currently purchase 180 MW)

New Portfolio Options
Resource Solicitation
"Joint RFP" with Green Mountain Power and Vermont Electric Coop for
100 MW
41 Proposals evaluated
5 Finalists selected
2 Contracts executed; 1 pending
Development risk associated with 2 of those projects

Additional RFPs expected over the next several years to complement results of the long-term contract negotiations

"Contingent RFP" with Green Mountain Power for 150 MW Contingent on future status and purchase from Vermont Yankee 3 Finalists selected
Resolution expected in 2010

Possible Future Vermont-Based Generation Joint utility feasibility study results released in August 2008 indicate:
A single large plant or several medium-sized baseload plants may warrant consideration given costs, transmission constraints and energy needs
Renewable resources could play important role in addressing Vermont's potential supply gap
CV and other Vermont utilities have not concluded whether to pursue construction of new Vermont-based generation plants CV may support development of new, medium-sized, baseload, in-state generation; and remains interested in power purchase opportunities, if developed


Superior customer service - 2009 JD Power East Region customer survey

Overall Satisfaction
Central Maine Power                                              649
Southern Maryland Electric Cooperative                           643
PPL Electric Utilities                                           641
Central Vermont Public Service                                   618
Penelec                                                          618
Pepco                                                            617
Rochester Gas & Electric                                         613
Allegheny Power                                                  608
Public Service Electric and Gas                                  608
Met-Ed                                                           605
PECO Energy                                                      604
Public Service of New Hampshire                                  604
Penn Power                                                       598
NSTAR                                                            597
East Region                                                      593
Western Massachusetts Electric                                   592
New York State Electric & Gas                                    589
Atlantic City Electric                                           588
Appalachian Power                                                587
United Illuminating                                              587
Con Edison Company of New York                                   586
Jersey Central Power & Light                                     581
Orange & Rockland                                                579
Duquesne Light                                                   576
National Grid                                                    575
Baltimore Gas & Electric                                         574
Connecticut Light & Power                                        571
Central Hudson Gas & Electric                                    565
Delmarv Power                                                    564
Long Island Power Authority                                      552


* Small Sample **Insufficient Sample

Transactional Customer Service Maintained at Superior Levels
CVPS Transactional Customer Satisfaction - 9 Qtrs
July 07                                    92%
Oct 07                                     88%
Jan 08                                     93%
Apr 08                                     90%
July 08                                    92%
Oct 08                                     93%
Jan 09                                     89%
Apr 09                                     93%
July 09                                    90%
GOAL:                                      80%



Q2 2009 Financial Results (All numbers
in 000s except per share)                    Q2 2009       Q2 2008      YTD 2009      YTD 2008
Operating Revenues
  Retail sales                             $  63,382     $  65,573     $ 137,465     $ 140,979
  Resale sales                             $  17,131        16,177     $  31,064     $  29,679
  Other                                    $   2,114     $   2,737     $   4,825     $   5,053
    Total operating revenue                $  82,627     $  84,487     $ 173,354     $ 175,711
Operating Expenses
  Purchased power                          $  38,605     $  41,282     $  80,215     $  84,188
  Other operating expenses                 $  38,499     $  38,116     $  78,117     $  78,143
  Income tax expense                       $     760     $     846     $   3,636     $   2,705
    Total operating expense                $  77,864        80,244       161,968       165,036
Equity in Earnings of Affiliates           $   4,431     $   4,014     $   8,876     $   8,199
Net Income                                 $   5,497         4,001        12,369         9,909
Earnings per share of common stock -
diluted                                    $    0.46          0.38          1.04          0.94

** CV third quarter earnings will be released on Friday November 6 **


Dollars in thousands, except per share amounts

Liquidity & Financing

Cash Flows                                         June 2009      June 2008
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period   $    6,722     $    3,803
Cash provided by operating activities              $   20,542     $   15,897
Cash used for investing activities                    (13,223 )      (15,877 )
Cash provided by (used for) financing activities      (5,083)          2,739
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period         $    8,958     $    6,562

Forecast Velco investment of ~ $21M in December 2009

$5.5M of debt maturing in December 2009

Rate Base Growth
CVPS RATE BASE - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED

Dollars in millions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Projected Rate Base $236 $236 $302 $344 $381 $433 $490 $528 $562 $585

Projected CAGR of 8.95% from 2009-2014

(Will be adjusted to reflect SmartPower stimulus grant - details pending)

Major Capital Investments Necessary
Electric utilities most capital intensive sector in the economy, according to U.S. Dept. of Commerce Office of Economic Analysis Capital improvements essential to maintain reliable electric service Aging T&D system; many segments 30 to 50 years old System reliability is essential to Vermont's economy Automation requires uninterrupted power Aging state population relies more on power for basic daily living

Capital Spending Trends



HISTORIC & PROJECTED CAPITAL SPENDING
2005              $17.5
2006              $18.0
2007              $23.0
2008              $36.8
2009              $30.2
2010              $47.6
2011              $61.1
2012              $53.5
2013              $37.0
2014              $36.6

Historical spending has not been inflated to 2009 dollars. Projected spending includes inflationary assumptions.

VELCO Investment Background
Vermont's transmission operator
Approx $450M of construction planned or underway FERC-regulated
Owned by 20 Vermont utilities, including investor-owned, municipals and cooperatives
CVPS owns 40%; equity investments generally based on VTA load share of 43%
Independent management and board of directors

VELCO INVESTMENTS 2004 - 2011
2004          $7.0
2005          $0
2006          $23.0
2007          $53.0
2008          $3.0
2009          $21.0
2010          $43.0
2011          $12.0


2009 Earnings Guidance & Dividends

2009 Earnings Guidance
$1.50 - $1.65 per diluted share (updated from $1.40 - $1.60)

Guidance Drivers
Alt Reg mechanisms (PCAM, ESAM)
ESAM provides 'floor' for earnings in the regulated business Impacts of the economy on retail sales

Dividends
$ 0.92 annual dividend
4.50% annualized dividend yield (as of October 19, 2009) Long-term strategy is for dividend yield to remain in line with peer utilities
Over short term, significant amount of available capital is being deployed in infrastructure improvements

Future earnings drivers under Alt Reg plan

Annual ROE adjustment mechanism
2010 allowed ROE will be 9.59%
Future years adjust at ½ the change in the average yield on 10 Yr Treasuries measured over last 20 trading days prior to Oct. 15

Quarterly Power Cost Adjustment Mechanism ("PCAM") 100% of fixed and 90% of variable power & transmission costs (the latter beyond a 315k deadband)
Any variances not recovered via the PCAM become part of the ESAM

Annual Earnings Sharing Adjustment ("ESAM") Regulated earnings will fall between -100 bp and +75 bp of allowed
ROE

Rate Base Growth
Growth in rate base, upon which we earn a return, is projected at 8.95% CAGR from 2009-2014

Long-Term Strategy
Provide superior customer service and reliability Improve financial strength to restore our credit rating to investment grade and to fuel capital investments in our core business and VELCO Partner with the State and other utilities to create an affordable, reliable and environmentally responsible electric future for Vermont

These strategies create shareholder value over the long term

APPENDIX
EEI Financial Conference
Hollywood, FL Nov. 1-3, 2009

Key Data Elements
Market Cap at 9/30/09: $225.6M
2008 Earned ROE: 8.3%
2009 Rate Base: $381M
2009 Effective Tax Rate: 32 - 34%
2009 Capex (ex. Transco): $30M
2009 Transco investment: ~ $21M (December 2009) ~5bp of ROE = $0.01eps
Corp. Credit Rating (S&P): BB+ / stable
2009 Debt maturities: $5.5M (Q4)
2008 Peak load: 414.4 MW (Jan. 3)
2008 Avg 12 month system capability: 466.5 MW

Vermont Regulators and Leadership

Key Regulators
Vermont Public Service board
Adjudicating body that issues rulings in utility matters Three-member board, appointed by Governor Six-year, staggered terms
Vermont Dept. of Public Service
Public Advocate
Commissioner appointed by Governor
Governor James Douglas (R)
First elected in 2002, re-elected in 2008 to serve fourth, 2-year term Challenged by $64M budget shortfall in 2008-09 and by a General Assembly controlled by Democrats
Does not plan to seek re-election in 2010

Key Data Elements
    2008 Average Number of Customers
136,074 Residential
22,407 Commercial
35 Industrial

    2008 Revenues
40% Residential
32% Commercial
11% Industrial
14% Resale Sales
3% Other Operating Revenue

Owned Generation Overview



                        Net Effective Capability /      Generated and
                             Entitlement (MW)           Purchased mWh
Wholly-Owned Plants
   Hydro                           41.2                    235,464
   Diesel and Gas                  27.3                      615
Turbine
Jointly-Owned Plants
(1)
   Millstone #3                    20.0                    174,540
(nuclear)
   Wyman #4 (oil)                  10.7                      905
   McNeil (various)                10.7                    52,903

 Note: (1) includes
retired nuclear units


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