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| NCT > SEC Filings for NCT > Form 10-Q on 10-Aug-2009 | All Recent SEC Filings |
10-Aug-2009
Quarterly Report
The following should be read in conjunction with the unaudited consolidated financial statements and notes included herein.
GENERAL
Newcastle Investment Corp. is a real estate investment and finance company. We invest in, and actively manage, a portfolio of real estate securities, loans and other real estate related assets. Our objective is to maximize the difference between the yield on our investments and the cost of financing these investments while hedging our interest rate risk. We emphasize portfolio management, asset quality, diversification, match funded financing and credit risk management.
We currently own a diversified portfolio of credit sensitive real estate debt investments, including securities and loans. Our portfolio of real estate securities includes commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), senior unsecured debt issued by property REITs, real estate related asset backed securities (ABS), and FNMA/FHLMC securities. Mortgage backed securities are interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans. We generally target investments rated A through BB, except for our FNMA/FHLMC securities which have an implied AAA rating. We also own, directly and indirectly, interests in loans and pools of loans, including real estate related loans, commercial mortgage loans, residential mortgage loans, manufactured housing loans, and subprime mortgage loans.
We employ leverage as part of our investment strategy. We do not have a predetermined target debt to equity ratio as we believe the appropriate leverage for the particular assets we are financing depends on the credit quality of those assets. As a result of our negative GAAP equity, our GAAP debt to equity ratio is not a meaningful measure as of June 30, 2009. Our general investment guidelines adopted by our board of directors limit total leverage (as defined under the governing documents) to a maximum 9.0 to 1 debt to equity ratio. As of June 30, 2009, our debt to equity ratio, as computed under this method, was approximately 4.5 to 1.0.
We strive to maintain access to a broad array of capital resources in an effort to insulate our business from potential fluctuations in the availability of capital. We utilize multiple forms of financing including collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), other securitizations, term loans, and trust preferred securities, as well as short term financing in the form of loans and repurchase agreements. As we discuss in more detail under "-Market Considerations" below, the ongoing credit and liquidity crisis has limited the array of capital resources available to us and made the terms of capital resources we are able to obtain generally less favorable to us relative to the terms we were able to obtain prior to the crisis. For example, we are currently contractually restricted from entering into new debt financings subject to margin calls other than to finance up to a specified amount of FNMA/FHLMC securities.
We seek to match fund our investments with respect to interest rates and maturities in order to reduce the impact of interest rate fluctuations on earnings and reduce the risk of refinancing our liabilities prior to the maturity of the investments. We seek to finance a substantial portion of our real estate securities and loans through the issuance of term debt, which generally represents obligations issued in multiple classes secured by an underlying portfolio of assets. Specifically, our CDO financings offer us the structural flexibility to buy and sell certain investments to manage risk and, subject to certain limitations, to optimize returns.
We conduct our business through four primary segments: (i) investments financed with non-recourse collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), (ii) investments financed with other non-recourse debt, (iii) investments financed with recourse debt, including FNMA / FHLMC securities, and (iv) unlevered investments. In the second quarter of 2008, Newcastle changed the structure of its internal organization such that the basis of the composition of its reportable segments changed from investment type to financing type. Revenues attributable to each segment are disclosed below (in thousands).
For the Six Months Other Ended June 30, CDOs Non-Recourse Recourse Unlevered Unallocated Total 2009 $ 166,939 $ 38,859 $ 4,802 $ 1,168 $ 43 $ 211,811 2008 $ 157,600 $ 46,257 $ 27,957 $ 14,966 $ 1,132 $ 247,912 |
Market Considerations
Financial Institutions
Many market participants remain uncertain about the health of a number of financial institutions and the financial system in general. Continuing write-downs and capital related issues affecting financial market participants have contributed to the recent wave of significant events affecting financial institutions, including the insolvency of Lehman Brothers, the government's placing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG under its supervision, the announced distressed sales of all or portions of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia and Washington Mutual and the government's increasing its equity investment in Citigroup. Although the United States and other governments have taken a number of significant steps to improve market conditions and the strength of major financial institutions, such efforts to date have not brought stability or liquidity to the capital markets, and we cannot predict the future conditions of these markets or the impact of such condition on our business.
The consolidation or elimination of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and several
other counterparties has increased our concentration of counterparty risk,
decreased the universe of potential counterparties and reduced our ability to
obtain competitive financing rates and terms. For a more detailed discussion of
our counterparty default and concentration risk, see Part I, Item 1A, "Risk
Factors - Risks Related to the Financial Services Industry and Financial Markets
- We are subject to counterparty default and concentration risk."
Financial Markets in which We Operate
Our ability to generate income is dependent on our ability to invest our capital on a timely basis at attractive levels. The two primary market factors that affect this ability are (1) credit spreads and (2) the availability of financing on favorable terms.
Generally speaking, widening credit spreads reduce any unrealized gains on our current investments (or cause or increase unrealized losses) and increase our costs for new financings, but increase the yields available on potential new investments, while tightening credit spreads increase the unrealized gains (or reduce unrealized losses) on our current investments and reduce our costs for new financings, but reduce the yields available on potential new investments. By reducing unrealized gains (or causing unrealized losses), widening credit spreads also impact our ability to realize gains on existing investments if we were to sell such assets.
During the first six months of 2009, credit spreads widened substantially. This widening of credit spreads caused the net unrealized losses on our securities to increase. One of the key drivers of the widening of credit spreads has been the continued disruption and liquidity concerns throughout the credit markets. The severity and scope of the disruption intensified meaningfully during the fourth quarter of 2008 and first six months of 2009 and caused credit spreads to widen further during this period.
Liquidity
The ongoing credit and liquidity crisis has adversely affected us and the market in which we operate in a number of other ways. For example, it has reduced the market trading activity for many real estate securities and loans, resulting in less liquid markets for those securities and loans. As the securities held by us and many other companies in our industry are marked to market at the end of each quarter, the decreased liquidity and concern over market conditions have resulted in significant reductions in mark to market valuations of many real estate securities and loans and the collateral underlying them. These lower valuations, and decreased expectations of future cash flows, have affected us by, among other things:
• decreasing our net book value;
• contributing to our decision to record significant impairment charges;
• prompting us to negotiate the removal of certain financial covenants from our non-CDO financings;
• reducing the amount, which we refer to as cushion, by which we satisfy the over collateralization and interest coverage tests of our CDOs (sometimes referred to as CDO "triggers") or contributing to several of our CDOs failing their over collateralization tests (see "- Liquidity and Capital Resources" and "- Debt Obligations" below); and
• requiring us to pay additional amounts under certain financing arrangements.
In some cases, we have sold, and may continue to sell, assets at prices below what we believed to be their value in order to meet liquidity requirements under certain financing arrangements. Failed CDO triggers, impairments resulting from incurred losses, and asset sales at prices significantly below face amount, while the related debt is being repaid at its full face amount, further contribute to reductions in future earnings, cash flow and liquidity. As a result, we expect that our future cash flow from operations will be significantly reduced relative to previous years.
In order to maintain liquidity, we have elected to retain the majority of our investment proceeds (including those from asset sales) in lieu of using those proceeds to make new investments, or to buy back stock or debt, and elected not to declare any common or preferred dividends during the fourth quarter of 2008 or the first two quarters of 2009. This approach has increased our liquidity while reducing our operating earnings. We may elect to adjust or not to pay any future dividend payments to reflect our current and expected cash from operations or to satisfy future liquidity needs.
Extent of Market Disruption
We do not currently know the full extent to which this market disruption will affect us or the markets in which we operate, and we are unable to predict its length or ultimate severity. If the disruption continues, we will likely experience additional impairment charges, challenges in complying with the terms of our financing agreements, increased margin requirements, and additional challenges in raising capital and obtaining investment financing on attractive terms. Moreover, we will likely need to continue to place a high priority on managing our liquidity. If we raised capital or issued unsecured debt in the current market, it would be significantly dilutive to our current shareholders.
Future cash flows and our liquidity may be materially impacted if conditions do not improve. Should the current conditions worsen, or persist for an extended period of time, our available capital could be reduced upon the expiration or termination of our capital resources.
Certain aspects of these effects are more fully described in Part I, Item 2, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Interest Rate, Credit and Spread Risk" and "- Liquidity and Capital Resources" as well as in Part I, Item 3, "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk."
APPLICATION OF CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations is based upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires the use of estimates and assumptions that could affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities and the reported amounts of revenue and expenses. Actual results could differ from these estimates. Management believes that the estimates and assumptions utilized in the preparation of the consolidated financial statements are prudent and reasonable. Actual results have been in line with management's estimates and judgments used in applying each of the accounting policies described below, as modified periodically to reflect current market conditions. The following is a summary of our accounting policies that are most effected by judgments, estimates and assumptions.
Variable Interest Entities
Financial Accounting Standards Board Interpretation ("FIN") No. 46R "Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities" clarified the methodology for determining whether an entity is a variable interest entity ("VIE") and the methodology for assessing who is the primary beneficiary of a VIE. VIEs are defined as entities in which equity investors do not have the characteristics of a controlling financial interest or do not have sufficient equity at risk for the entity to finance its activities without additional subordinated financial support from other parties. A VIE is required to be consolidated by its primary beneficiary, and only by its primary beneficiary, which is defined as the party who will absorb a majority of the VIE's expected losses or receive a majority of the expected residual returns as a result of holding variable interests.
The VIEs in which we have a significant interest include (i) our subprime securitizations, which are held in qualifying special purpose entities under SFAS 140 and are therefore exempt from consolidation as VIEs, and (ii) our CDOs, in which we have been determined to be the primary beneficiary and therefore consolidate them, since we would absorb a majority of their expected losses and receive a majority of their expended residual returns, as determined on the date of formation and on any applicable reconsideration dates. Our CDOs are held in special purpose entities whose debt is treated as a non-recourse secured borrowing of Newcastle.
We will continue to analyze future investments, as well as reconsideration events in existing entities, pursuant to the requirements of FIN 46R. These analyses require considerable judgment in determining the primary beneficiary of a VIE since they involve estimated probability weighting of subjectively determined possible cash flow scenarios. The result could be the consolidation of an entity that would otherwise not have been consolidated or the non-consolidation of an entity that would otherwise have been consolidated.
Valuation and Impairment of Securities
We have classified all our real estate securities as available for sale. As such, they are carried at fair value with net unrealized gains or losses reported as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income, to the extent impairment losses are considered temporary as described below. Fair value may be based upon broker quotations, counterparty quotations or pricing services quotations, which provide valuation estimates based upon reasonable market order indications or a good faith estimate thereof and are subject to significant variability based on market conditions, such as interest rates, credit spreads and market liquidity. A significant portion of our securities are currently not traded in active markets and therefore have little or no price transparency. For a further discussion of this trend, see "- Market Considerations" above. As a result, we have estimated the fair value of these illiquid securities based on internal pricing models rather than broker quotations. The determination of estimated cash flows used in pricing models is inherently subjective and imprecise. Changes in market conditions, as well as changes in the assumptions or methodology used to determine fair value, could result in a significant and immediate increase or decrease in our GAAP equity. For securities valued with pricing models, these inputs include the discount rate, assumptions relating to prepayments, default rates and loss severities, as well as other variables.
See Note 6 to our consolidated financial statements in Part I, Item 1, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data" for information regarding the fair value of our investments, and its estimation methodology, as of June 30, 2009.
Our estimation of the fair value of level 3B assets (as described below) involves significant judgment. Changes in market conditions, as well as changes in the assumptions or methodology used to determine fair value, could result in a significant increase or decrease in our GAAP equity. For securities valued using pricing models, the inputs include the discount rate, assumptions relating to prepayments, default rates and loss severities, as well as other variables. We validated the inputs and outputs of our models by comparing them to available independent third party market parameters and models for reasonableness. We believe the assumptions we used are within the range that a market participant would use and factor in the relative illiquidity currently in the markets. In comparison to the prior year end, we have used slower prepayment speeds, higher default rates and higher severity assumptions as inputs to our pricing models in order to reflect current market conditions. In the first two quarters of 2009, Newcastle lowered the prepayment assumptions based on observed reductions in actual prepayment speeds and slower expected future prepayments consistent with market projections. The slower prepayments were the result of increasing difficulties for borrowers to refinance, caused by a tightening of underwriting standards, decline in home prices, contraction of available lenders due to bank failures and a distressed securitization market. Default assumptions were increased due to higher levels of delinquent underlying loans. Loss severity assumptions were increased based on observed increases in recent loss severities that have been driven by falling home prices and the increasing number of foreclosures or distressed home sales in the residential sector and higher losses as a result of the increasing number of foreclosures and bankruptcies of borrowers experienced in the commercial sector.
For debt securities valued with internal models, which have an aggregate fair value of $222.0 million as of June 30, 2009, a 10% unfavorable change in our assumptions would result in the following decreases in such aggregate fair value:
CMBS ABS
Outstanding face amount $ 896,170 $ 469,944
Fair value $ 132,577 $ 89,464
Effect on fair value with 10% unfavorable change in:
Discount rate $ (5,656 ) $ (3,341 )
Prepayment rate N/A $ (1,449 )
Default rate $ (10,810 ) $ (7,219 )
Loss severity $ (11,511 ) $ (11,563 )
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The sensitivity analysis is hypothetical and should be used with caution. In particular, the results are calculated by stressing a particular economic assumption independent of changes in any other assumption; in practice, changes in one factor may result in changes in another, which might counteract or amplify the sensitivities. Also, changes in the fair value based on a 10% variation in an assumption generally may not be extrapolated because the relationship of the change in the assumption to the change in fair value may not be linear.
Pursuant to SFAS 157, as described below, our securities must be categorized by the "level" of inputs used in estimating their fair values. Level 1 would be assets valued based on quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets; we have no level 1 assets. Level 2 would be assets valued based on quoted prices in active markets for similar instruments, on quoted prices in less active or inactive markets, or on other "observable" market inputs. Level 3 would be assets valued based significantly on "unobservable" market inputs. We have further broken level 3 into level 3A, third party indications, and level 3B, internal models. Fair value under SFAS 157 represents an exit price in the normal course of business, not a forced liquidation price. If we were forced to sell assets in a short period to meet liquidity needs, the prices we receive could be substantially less than the recorded fair values.
We generally classify the broker quotations we receive as level 3A inputs, except for certain liquid securities. They are quoted prices in generally inactive and illiquid markets for identical or similar securities. These quotations are generally received via email and contain disclaimers which state that they are "indicative" and not "actionable" - meaning that the party giving the quotation is not bound to actually purchase the security at the quoted price. These quotations are generally based on models prepared by the brokers and we have little visibility into the inputs they use. Based on procedures we have performed with respect to prior quotations received from these brokers in comparison to the outputs generated from our internal pricing models and transactions we have completed with respect to these securities, as well as on our knowledge and experience of these markets, we have generally determined that these quotes represent a reasonable estimate of fair value. In addition, management performs its own quarterly analysis of fair value, based on internal pricing models, to confirm that each of the quotations received represented a reasonable estimate of fair value as defined under SFAS 157. For securities valued using quotations, a 100 basis point change in credit spreads would impact estimated fair value at period and by approximately $39.7 million.
We must also assess whether unrealized losses on securities, if any, reflect a decline in value which is other-than-temporary and, if so, write the impaired security down to its fair value through earnings. A decline in value is deemed to be other-than-temporary if (i) it is probable that we will be unable to collect all amounts due according to the contractual terms of a security which was not impaired at acquisition (there is an expected credit loss), or (ii) if we have the intent to sell a security in an unrealized loss position or it is more likely than not we will be required to sell a security in an unrealized loss position prior to
its anticipated recovery (if any). For the purposes of performing this analysis, we assume the anticipated recovery period is until the respective security's expected maturity. Also, for those securities within the scope of EITF Issue No. 99-20, "Recognition of Interest Income and Impairment on Purchased Beneficial Interests That Continue to Be Held by a Transferor in Securitized Financial Assets," as amended by FSP EITF 99-20-1, whenever there is a probable adverse change in the timing or amounts of estimated cash flows of a security from the cash flows previously projected, an other-than-temporary impairment is considered to have occurred. Securities within the scope of EITF 99-20 are also analyzed for other-than-temporary impairment under the guidelines applicable to all securities as described herein. We note that primarily all of our securities, except our FNMA/FHLMC securities, fall within the scope of EITF 99-20.
Temporary declines in value generally result from changes in market factors, such as market interest rates and credit spreads, or from certain macroeconomic events, including market disruptions and supply changes, which do not directly impact our ability to collect amounts contractually due. We continually evaluate the credit status of each of our securities and the collateral supporting our securities. This evaluation includes a review of the credit of the issuer of the security (if applicable), the credit rating of the security, the key terms of the security (including credit support), debt service coverage and loan to value ratios, the performance of the pool of underlying loans and the estimated value of the collateral supporting such loans, including the effect of local, industry and broader economic trends and factors. These factors include loan default expectations and loss severities, which are analyzed in connection with a particular security's credit support, as well as prepayment rates. These factors are also analyzed in relation to the amount of the unrealized loss and the period elapsed since it was incurred. The result of this evaluation is considered when determining management's estimate of cash flows, particularly with respect to developing the necessary inputs and assumptions. Each security is impacted by different factors and in different ways; generally the more negative factors which are identified with respect to a given security, the more likely we are to determine that we do not expect to receive all contractual payments when due with respect to that security. Significant judgment is required in this analysis.
During the six months ended June 30, 2009, we had 186, or $427.1 million carrying amount of, securities that were downgraded and recorded a net other-than-temporary impairment charge of $104.9 million on these securities in the second quarter of 2009. However, we do not depend on credit ratings in underwriting our securities, either at acquisition or on an ongoing basis. As mentioned above, a credit rating downgrade is one factor that we monitor and consider in our analysis regarding other-than-temporary impairment, however it is not determinative. Our securities generally benefit from the support of one or more subordinate classes of securities or equity or other forms of credit support. Therefore, credit rating downgrades, even to the extent they relate to an expectation that a securitization we have invested in, on an overall basis, has credit issues, may not ultimately impact cash flow estimates for the class of securities in which we are invested.
Furthermore, the analysis of whether it is more likely than not that we will be required to sell securities in an unrealized loss position prior to an expected recovery in value (if any), the amount of such expected required sales, and the projected identification of which securities would be sold is also be subject to significant judgment, particularly in times of market illiquidity such as we are currently experiencing.
Revenue Recognition on Securities
Income on these securities is recognized using a level yield methodology based upon a number of cash flow assumptions that are subject to uncertainties and contingencies. Such assumptions include the rate and timing of principal and interest receipts (which may be subject to prepayments and defaults). These assumptions are updated on at least a quarterly basis to reflect changes related to a particular security, actual historical data, and market changes. These uncertainties and contingencies are difficult to predict and are subject to future events, and economic and market conditions, which may alter the assumptions. For securities acquired at a discount for credit losses, the net income recognized is based on a "loss adjusted yield" whereby a gross interest yield is recorded to Interest Income, offset by a provision for probable, incurred credit losses which is accrued on a periodic basis to Provision for Credit Losses. The provision is determined based on an evaluation of the credit status of securities, as described in connection with the analysis of impairment above.
Valuation of Derivatives . . .
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