The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our accompanying consolidated financial statements and notes thereto, which appear elsewhere in this document. In this discussion, all dollar amounts are presented in thousands, except share and per share data.

The following discussion contains forward-looking statements. We intend statements which are not historical in nature to be, and are hereby identified as "forward-looking statements" to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In addition, the Company's senior management may make forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, the media and others. This safe harbor requires that we specify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of us. We cannot promise that our expectations in such forward-looking statements will turn out to be correct. Our actual results could be materially different from and worse than our expectations. See "Forward-Looking Statements" below for specific important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements

In this discussion, "Safety" refers to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and "our Company," "we," "us" and "our" refer to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Our subsidiaries consist of Safety Insurance Company ("Safety Insurance"), Safety Indemnity Insurance Company ("Safety Indemnity"), Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company ("Safety P&C"), Whiteshirts Asset Management Corporation ("WAMC"), and Whiteshirts Management Corporation, which is WAMC's holding company.

We are a leading provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. In addition to private passenger automobile insurance (which represented 71.7% of our direct written premiums in 2008), we offer a portfolio of other insurance products, including commercial automobile (13.2% of 2008 direct written premiums), homeowners (11.6% of 2008 direct written premiums), dwelling fire, umbrella and business owner policies (totaling 3.5% of 2008 direct written premiums). Operating virtually exclusively in Massachusetts through our insurance company subsidiaries, Safety Insurance, Safety Indemnity, and Safety P&C, (together referred to as the "Insurance Subsidiaries"), we have established strong relationships with 827 independent insurance agents in 969 locations throughout Massachusetts. We have used these relationships and our extensive knowledge of the Massachusetts market to become the second largest private passenger automobile and third largest commercial automobile insurance carrier in Massachusetts, capturing an approximate 11.1% and 11.7% share, respectively, of the Massachusetts private passenger and commercial automobile markets in 2008, according to the Commonwealth Automobile Reinsurers ("CAR") Cession Volume Analysis Report of March 3, 2009, based on automobile exposures. These statistics total, for each vehicle insured, the number of months during the year insurance for that vehicle is in effect, to arrive at an aggregate number of car-months for each insurer; this aggregate number, divided by 12, equals the insurer's number of car-years, a measure we refer to in this discussion as automobile exposures.

On June 20, 2007, we applied for admission in the State of New Hampshire for a Certificate of Authority to transact insurance business. On October 16, 2007, the State of New Hampshire Insurance Department issued a Certificate of Authority for property and casualty insurance to each of our Insurance Subsidiaries. We began writing private passenger automobile and homeowners business in New Hampshire on October 15, 2008.

Massachusetts Automobile Insurance Market

We have been subject to extensive regulation in the private passenger automobile insurance industry in Massachusetts, which represented 71.7% of our direct written premiums in 2008. Owners of registered automobiles in Massachusetts are required to maintain minimum automobile insurance coverage. Prior to April 1, 2008, the Commissioner of Insurance (the "Commissioner") had fixed and established the maximum rates that could be charged for private passenger automobile insurance. Prior to April 1, 2008, as a servicing carrier of CAR, we were required to issue a policy to all qualified applicants. CAR operates at an underwriting deficit. This deficit is allocated among every Massachusetts automobile insurance company, including us, based on a complex formula that takes into consideration a company's voluntary market share, the rate at which it cedes business to CAR, and the company's utilization of a credit system CAR has designed to encourage carriers to reduce their use of CAR. In addition, based on our market share, prior to April 1, 2009 we had been assigned certain licensed producers by CAR that were unable to obtain a voluntary contract with another insurer. We call these agents Exclusive Representative Producers, or ERPs.

On July 16, 2007, the Commissioner issued two decisions that significantly changed how private passenger automobile insurance is regulated in Massachusetts. In the first decision, the Commissioner approved and set a time table for the implementation of new CAR rules pursuant to which the current reinsurance program run by CAR has been replaced with an assigned risk plan, the Massachusetts Automobile Insurance Plan ("MAIP"). Under these new rules, as of April 1, 2009 we will no longer be assigned ERPs whose business we must insure (subject to the option of ceding it to CAR) and instead, we are assigned individual policies by CAR. The MAIP began with business effective on or after April 1, 2008 for new business and those risks that have 10 or more Safe Driver Points. Beginning April 1, 2009, all business was eligible for MAIP except those risks that have no violations or accidents in the preceding three year period (so called "Clean in three" risks). The last policy effective date on which any risk can be ceded to CAR in accordance with the current reinsurance program was March 31, 2009. We are not able at this time to determine what effect these new CAR rules will have on our business.

The Commissioner's decision to implement an assigned risk plan brought to a close a lengthy period of regulatory and judicial consideration of the Massachusetts private passenger residual market.

In the second decision referenced above, the Commissioner announced that she would not fix and establish the maximum premium rates that can be charged for private passenger automobile insurance policies issued or renewed after April 1, 2008. In a letter accompanying the decision, the Commissioner stated that in place of the "fixed and established" system, she would institute a system that introduces competitive pricing to the Massachusetts private passenger automobile insurance market, which the Commissioner has described as "managed competition" ("Managed Competition"). On October 5, 2007, the Commissioner issued a Competitive Rating Regulation; 211 CMR 79.00: Private Passenger Motor Vehicle Insurance Rates that describes the technical details of Managed Competition (the "Regulation"). The Regulation governs the rate filing that an insurer can file.

In addition, the Regulation prohibits the following rating and underwriting factors:

† Rating Factors: Insurers are prohibited from using credit information, sex, marital status, race, creed, national origin, religion, occupation, income, education, home ownership and age (except to produce the reduction in rates for insureds age 65 and over).

† Underwriting Factors: Insurers are prohibited from refusing to issue or renew a private passenger auto insurance policy based on credit information, sex, marital status, race, creed, national origin, religion, age, occupation, income, principal place of garaging, education and home ownership.

The Commissioner has issued a number of bulletins addressing issues related to the implementation of Managed Competition (the "Rating Bulletins"). Rating Bulletin 2008-11 limits voluntary market rates to a level no higher than the rates in the residual market. Rating Bulletin 2008-17 describes how companies may place risks among company affiliates within an insurer group.

We are not able at this time to determine what effect these bulletins will have on our business over the long term.

CAR runs a reinsurance pool for commercial automobile policies and beginning January 1, 2006, CAR implemented a Limited Servicing Carrier Program ("LSC") for ceded commercial automobile policies. CAR approved Safety Insurance and five other servicing carriers through a Request for Proposal to process ceded commercial automobile business, which is spread equitably among the six servicing carriers. Each Massachusetts commercial automobile insurer must bear a portion of the losses of the commercial reinsurance pool that is serviced by the six servicing carriers in the LSC program. Subject to the Commissioner's review, CAR sets the premium rates for commercial automobile policies reinsured through CAR and this reinsurance pool can generate an underwriting result that is a profit or deficit based upon CAR's rate level. This underwriting result is allocated among every Massachusetts commercial automobile insurance company, including us, based on a company's commercial automobile voluntary market share.

CAR also runs a reinsurance pool for Taxi, Limousine and Car Service risks (the "Taxi/Limo Program"). On April 25, 2007, Safety submitted through a Request for Proposal a bid to process a portion of the Taxi/Limo Program. CAR approved Safety as one of the two servicing carriers for this program beginning January 1, 2008.

As noted above, in 2007 and previous years, the Commissioner set the maximum premium rates that could be charged and minimum commissions that had to be paid to agents for private passenger automobile insurance. Beginning in 2007, the effective date of the Commissioner's rate decision was April 1st as compared to January 1st of 2006 and prior rate decisions. The 2006 rates were in effect from January 1, 2006 until March 31, 2007. The Commissioner announced on December 15, 2006, an 11.7% statewide average private passenger automobile insurance rate decrease for 2007, compared to an 8.7% decrease for 2006.

Coinciding with the 2007 rate decision, the Commissioner also approved a 13.0% commission rate which agents receive for selling private passenger automobile insurance, as a percentage of premiums, compared to a commission rate of 11.8% in 2006.

Under Managed Competition, we decreased our rates an average 6.7% in 2008. We have filed and been approved for modifications in our rates effective April 1, 2009 that are expected to result in no change in our average total rates. We will also begin using three rating tiers effective April 1, 2009. A Companion Policy Client Tier, which is policyholders that have a non private passenger automobile policy with us, will receive a rate decrease of 2.5%. A Loyal Automobile Client Tier, which is policyholders who have been insured with Safety two or more years, will see no rate change. A New Insurance Client Tier, which is policyholders that don't qualify for the other two tiers, will have a rate increase of 2.5%. Our rates include a 13.0% commission rate for agents.

For the three months ended March 31, 2009, our average private passenger automobile premium per exposure decreased by 9.6% from the three months ended March 31, 2008. The table below shows the filed and approved average Massachusetts private passenger automobile premium rate changes and the resulting changes in our average premium per automobile exposure. The 9.6% decrease in average premium per personal automobile exposure is the result of our "rounded account" pricing strategy introduced under Managed Competition that began April 1, 2008, which has favorable pricing for policyholders that insure an automobile and home with us, and unfavorable pricing for stand-alone automobile policies. More automobile policyholders than we originally estimated have insured both their automobile and home with us, and thus are eligible for our account discount of 10%.

                Massachusetts Private Passenger Automobile Rates



                          Safety Change in
       Average Rate      Average Premium per
Year    Change (1)     Automobile Exposure (2)
2009           (6.7 )%                    (9.6 )%
2008           (6.7 )%                    (7.9 )%
2007          (11.7 )%                    (5.5 )%
2006           (8.7 )%                    (6.8 )%
2005           (1.7 )%                     0.1 %
2004            2.5 %                      6.1 %
2003            2.7 %                      6.9 %
2002            0.0 %                      5.2 %
2001           (8.3 )%                     0.0 %
2000            0.7 %                      7.4 %
1999            0.7 %                     10.9 %

(2) Source: Safety Insurance.

Statutory Accounting Principles

Our results are reported in accordance with GAAP, which differ from amounts reported in accordance with statutory accounting principles ("SAP") as prescribed by insurance regulatory authorities. Specifically, under GAAP:

† Policy acquisition costs such as commissions, premium taxes and other variable costs incurred in connection with writing new and renewal business are capitalized and amortized on a pro rata basis over the period in which the related premiums are earned, rather than expensed as incurred, as required by SAP.

† Certain assets are included in the consolidated balance sheets whereas, under SAP, such assets are designated as "non admitted assets," and charged directly against statutory surplus. These assets consist primarily of premium receivables

that are outstanding over ninety days, federal deferred tax assets in excess of statutory limitations, furniture, equipment, leasehold improvements and prepaid expenses.

† Amounts related to ceded reinsurance are shown gross of ceded unearned premiums and reinsurance recoverables, rather than netted against unearned premium reserves and loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, respectively, as required by SAP.

† Fixed maturities securities, which are classified as available-for-sale, are reported at current fair values, rather than at amortized cost, or the lower of amortized cost or market, depending on the specific type of security, as required by SAP.

† The differing treatment of income and expense items results in a corresponding difference in federal income tax expense. Changes in deferred income taxes are reflected as an item of income tax benefit or expense, rather than recorded directly to surplus as regards policyholders, as required by SAP. Admittance testing may result in a charge to unassigned surplus for non-admitted portions of deferred tax assets. Under GAAP reporting, a valuation allowance may be recorded against the deferred tax asset and reflected as an expense.

Insurance Ratios

The property and casualty insurance industry uses the combined ratio as a measure of underwriting profitability. The combined ratio is the sum of the loss ratio (losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred as a percent of net earned premiums) plus the expense ratio (underwriting expenses as a percent of net written premiums, if calculated on a SAP basis, or net earned premiums, if calculated on a GAAP basis). The combined ratio reflects only underwriting results, and does not include income from investments or finance and other service income. Underwriting profitability is subject to significant fluctuations due to competition, catastrophic events, weather, economic and social conditions and other factors.

Our statutory insurance ratios are outlined in the following table:

Three Months Ended March 31,

                        2009               2008
Statutory ratios:
Loss ratio                   68.6 %             63.6 %
Expense ratio                29.5               28.4
Combined ratio               98.1 %             92.0 %

Under GAAP, the loss ratio is computed in the same manner as under SAP, but the expense ratio is determined by matching underwriting expenses to the period over which net premiums were earned, rather than to the period that net premiums were written.

Our GAAP insurance ratios are outlined in the following table:

Three Months Ended March 31,

                     2009               2008
GAAP ratios:
Loss ratio                68.6 %             63.6 %
Expense ratio             30.3               29.5
Combined ratio            98.9 %             93.1 %

Stock-Based Compensation

Long-term incentive compensation is provided under the our 2002 Management Omnibus Incentive Plan ("the Incentive Plan") which provides for a variety of stock-based compensation awards, including nonqualified stock options, incentive stock options, stock appreciation rights and restricted stock ("RS") awards.

The maximum number of shares of common stock with respect to which awards may be granted is 2,500,000. Shares of stock covered by an award under the Incentive Plan that are forfeited will again be available for issuance in connection with future grants of awards under the plan. At March 31, 2009, there were 918,796 shares available for future grant. The Board of Directors and the Compensation Committee intend to issue more awards under the Incentive Plan in the future.

A summary of stock based awards granted under the Incentive Plan during the three months ended March 31, 2009 is as follows:

Type of                    Number of      Fair
Equity                      Awards      Value per
Awarded   Effective Date    Granted     Share (1)        Vesting Terms
RS        March 9, 2009       95,953   $     28.66   3 years, 30%-30%-40%
RS        March 9, 2009        4,000   $     28.66   No vesting period (2)
RS        March 19, 2009      38,046   $     33.24   5 years, 20% annually

(2) The shares cannot be sold, assigned, pledged, or otherwise transferred, encumbered or disposed of until the recipient is no longer a member of our Board of Directors.

Reinsurance

We reinsure with other insurance companies a portion of our potential liability under the policies we have underwritten, thereby protecting us against an unexpectedly large loss or a catastrophic occurrence that could produce large losses, primarily in our homeowners line of business. We use various software products to measure our exposure to catastrophe losses and the probable maximum loss to us for catastrophe losses such as hurricanes. The models include estimates for our share of the catastrophe losses generated in the residual market for property insurance by the Massachusetts Property Insurance Underwriting Association ("FAIR Plan"). In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the reinsurance market has seen from the various software modelers, increases in the estimate of damage from hurricanes in the southern and northeast portions of the United States due to revised estimations of increased hurricane activity and increases in the estimation of demand surge in the periods following a significant event. We continue to adjust our reinsurance programs as a result of the changes to the models. As of January 1 2009, our catastrophe reinsurance provides gross per occurrence reinsurance coverage up to $350,000. As a result of the changes to the models, and our revised reinsurance program, our catastrophe reinsurance protects us in the event of a "140-year storm" (that is, a storm of a severity expected to occur once in a 140-year period). Swiss Re, our primary reinsurer, maintains an A.M. Best rating of "A" (Superior). All of our other reinsurers have an A.M. Best rating of "A" (Excellent) or better except for PARIS RE which is rated "A-" (Excellent).

We are a participant in CAR, a state-established body that runs the residual market reinsurance programs for both private passenger and commercial automobile insurance in Massachusetts under which premiums, expenses, losses and loss adjustment expenses on ceded business are shared by all insurers writing automobile insurance in Massachusetts. We also participate in the FAIR Plan in which premiums, expenses, losses and loss adjustment expenses on homeowners business that cannot be placed in the voluntary market are shared by all insurers writing homeowners insurance in Massachusetts. The FAIR Plan has grown dramatically over the past few years as insurance carriers have reduced their exposure to coastal property. The FAIR Plan's exposure to catastrophe losses increased and as a result, the FAIR Plan decided to buy reinsurance to reduce their exposure to catastrophe losses. On July 1, 2008, the FAIR Plan purchased $1,100,000 of catastrophe reinsurance for property losses in excess of $180,000. At March 31, 2009, we had no material amounts recoverable from any reinsurer, excluding the residual markets described above.

On March 10, 2005, our Board of Directors adopted a resolution that prohibits Safety from purchasing finite reinsurance (reinsurance that transfers only a finite or limited amount of risk to the reinsurer) without approval by the Board. To date, the Company has never purchased a finite reinsurance contract.

Effects of Inflation

We do not believe that inflation has had a material effect on our consolidated results of operations, except insofar as inflation may affect interest rates.

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves.

Significant periods of time can elapse between the occurrence of an insured loss, the reporting to us of that loss and our final payment of that loss. To recognize liabilities for unpaid losses, we establish reserves as balance sheet liabilities. Our reserves represent estimates of amounts needed to pay reported and unreported losses and the expenses of investigating and paying those losses, or loss adjustment expenses. Every quarter, we review our previously established reserves and adjust them, if necessary.

When a claim is reported, claims personnel establish a "case reserve" for the estimated amount of the ultimate payment. The amount of the reserve is primarily based upon an evaluation of the type of claim involved, the circumstances surrounding each claim and the policy provisions relating to the loss. The estimate reflects the informed judgment of such personnel based on general insurance reserving practices and on the experience and knowledge of the claims person. During the loss adjustment period, these estimates are revised as deemed necessary by our claims department based on subsequent developments and periodic reviews of the cases.

In accordance with industry practice, we also maintain reserves for estimated losses incurred but not yet reported ("IBNR"). IBNR reserves are determined in accordance with commonly accepted actuarial reserving techniques on the basis of our historical information and experience. We review and make adjustments to incurred but not yet reported reserves quarterly.

When reviewing reserves, we analyze historical data and estimate the impact of various loss development factors, such as our historical loss experience and that of the industry, trends in claims frequency and severity, our mix of business, our claims processing procedures, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in imposition of damages, and changes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. A change in any of these factors from the assumption implicit in our estimate can cause our actual loss experience to be better or worse than our reserves, and the difference can be material. There is no precise method, however, for evaluating the impact of any specific factor on the adequacy of reserves, because the eventual development of reserves is affected by many factors.

Management determines our loss and LAE reserves estimate based upon the analysis of our actuaries. A reasonable estimate is derived by selecting a point estimate within a range of indications as calculated by our actuaries using generally accepted actuarial techniques. The key assumption in most actuarial analysis is that past patterns of frequency and severity will repeat in the future, unless a significant change in the factors described above takes place. Our key factors and resulting assumptions are the ultimate frequency and severity of claims, based upon the most recent ten years of claims reported to the Company, and the data CAR reports to us to calculate our share of the residual market, as of the date of the applicable balance sheet. For each accident year and each coverage within a line of business our actuaries calculate the ultimate losses incurred. Our total reserves are the difference between the ultimate losses incurred and the cumulative loss and loss adjustment payments made to date. Our IBNR reserves are calculated as the difference between our total reserves and the outstanding case reserves at the end of the accounting period. To determine ultimate losses, our actuaries calculate a range of indications and select a point estimation using such actuarial techniques as:

† Paid Loss Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of historic paid loss trends. This method tends to be used on short tail lines such as automobile physical damage.

† Incurred Loss Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of historic incurred loss trends. This method tends to be used on long tail lines of business such as automobile liability and homeowner's liability.

† Bornhuetter-Ferguson Indications: This method projects ultimate loss estimates based upon extrapolations of an expected amount of IBNR, which is added to current incurred losses or paid losses. This method tends to be used on small, immature, or volatile lines of business, such as our BOP and umbrella lines of business.

† Bodily Injury Code Indications: This method projects ultimate loss . . .