Summary of RLI CORP - Yahoo! Finance

ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL
CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS.

"SAFE HARBOR" STATEMENT UNDER THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995: This discussion and analysis may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 that are not historical facts, and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expected and projected. Various risk factors that could affect future results are listed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008.

OVERVIEW

We underwrite selected property and casualty insurance through major subsidiaries collectively known as RLI Insurance Group (the Group). We conduct operations principally through three insurance companies. RLI Insurance Company, our principal subsidiary, writes multiple lines insurance on an admitted basis in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Mt. Hawley Insurance Company, a subsidiary of RLI Insurance Company, writes surplus lines insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam. RLI Indemnity Company, a subsidiary of Mt.

Hawley Insurance Company, has authority to write multiple lines of insurance on an admitted basis in 49 states and the District of Columbia. We are an Illinois corporation that was organized in 1965. We have no material foreign operations.

As a "niche" company, we offer specialty insurance coverages designed to meet specific insurance needs of targeted insured groups and underwrite particular types of coverage for certain markets that are underserved by the insurance industry, such as our difference in conditions coverages or oil and gas surety bonds. We also provide types of coverages not generally offered by other companies, such as our stand-alone personal umbrella policy. The excess and surplus market, which unlike the standard admitted market is less regulated and more flexible in terms of policy forms and premium rates, provides an alternative for customers with hard-to-place risks. When we underwrite within the surplus lines market, we are selective in the line of business and type of risks we choose to write. Using our non-admitted status in this market allows us to tailor terms and conditions to manage these exposures more effectively than our admitted counterparts. Often the development of these specialty insurance coverages is generated through proposals brought to us by an agent or broker seeking coverage for a specific group of clients. Once a proposal is submitted, underwriters determine whether it would be a viable product in keeping with our business objectives.

The foundation of our overall business strategy is to underwrite for profit in all marketplaces. This drives our ability to provide shareholder returns in three different ways: the underwriting income itself, net investment income from our investment portfolio, and long-term appreciation in our equity portfolio. Our investment strategy is based on preservation of capital as the first priority, with a secondary focus on generating total return. The fixed income portfolio consists primarily of highly rated, investment grade securities to protect invested assets. Regular underwriting income allows a portion of our shareholders' equity to be invested in equity securities. Our equity portfolio consists of a core stock portfolio weighted toward dividend-paying stocks, as well as exchange traded funds (ETFs). Private equity investments, primarily our minority ownership in Maui Jim, Inc. (Maui Jim), have also enhanced overall returns. We have a diversified investment portfolio and balance our investment credit risk and related underwriting risks to minimize total potential exposure to any one security. Despite fluctuations of realized and unrealized gains and losses in the equity portfolio, our investment in equity securities as part of a long-term asset allocation strategy has contributed significantly to our historic growth in book value.

We measure the results of our insurance operations by monitoring certain measures of growth and profitability across three distinct business segments:
casualty, property, and surety. Growth is measured in terms of gross premiums written and profitability is analyzed through combined ratios, which are further subdivided into their respective loss and expense components. The combined ratios represent the income generated from our underwriting segments.

The property and casualty insurance business is cyclical and influenced by many factors, including price competition, economic conditions, natural or man-made disasters (for example, earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism), interest rates, state regulations, court decisions and changes in the law. One of the unique and challenging features of the property and casualty insurance business is that coverages must be priced before costs have fully developed,

because premiums are charged before claims are incurred. This requires that liabilities be estimated and recorded in recognition of future loss and settlement obligations. Due to the inherent uncertainty in estimating these liabilities, there can be no assurance that actual liabilities will not be more or less than recorded amounts; if actual liabilities differ from recorded amounts, there will be an adverse or favorable effect on net earnings. In evaluating the objective performance measures previously mentioned, it is important to consider the following individual characteristics of each major insurance segment.

The casualty portion of our business consists largely of general liability, personal umbrella, transportation, executive products, commercial umbrella, multi-peril program business, and other specialty coverages. In addition, we provide employers' indemnity and in-home business owners coverage. The casualty business is subject to the risk of estimating losses and related loss reserves because the ultimate settlement of a casualty claim may take several years to fully develop. The casualty segment may also be affected by evolving legislation and court decisions that define the extent of coverage and the amount of compensation due for injuries or losses.

Our property segment primarily underwrites commercial fire, earthquake, difference in conditions, marine, facultative reinsurance, and in the state of Hawaii, select personal lines policies. Property insurance results are subject to the variability introduced by perils such as earthquakes, fires and hurricanes. Our major catastrophe exposure is to losses caused by earthquakes, primarily on the West Coast. Our second largest catastrophe exposure is to losses caused by hurricanes to commercial properties throughout the Gulf and East Coasts, as well as to homes we insure in Hawaii. We limit our net aggregate exposure to a catastrophic event by limiting the total policy limits written in a particular region, by purchasing reinsurance, and through extensive use of computer-assisted modeling techniques. These techniques provide estimates of the concentration of risks exposed to catastrophic events.

The surety segment specializes in writing small-to-large commercial and small contract surety coverages, as well as those for the energy (plugging and abandonment of oil wells), petrochemical, and refining industries. We offer miscellaneous bonds, including license and permit, notary, and court bonds. We also offer fidelity and crime coverage for commercial insureds and select financial institutions. Often, our surety coverages involve a statutory requirement for bonds. While these bonds have maintained a relatively low loss ratio, losses may fluctuate due to adverse economic conditions that may affect the financial viability of an insured. The contract surety marketplace guarantees the construction work of a commercial contractor for a specific project. Generally, losses occur due to adverse economic conditions or the deterioration of a contractor's financial condition. As such, this line has historically produced marginally higher loss ratios than other surety lines.

The insurance marketplace softened over the last several years, meaning that the marketplace became more competitive and prices were falling even as coverage terms became less restrictive. Nevertheless, we believe that our business model is geared to create underwriting income by focusing on sound underwriting discipline. Our primary focus will continue to be on underwriting profitability as opposed to premium growth or market share measurements.

GAAP and non-GAAP Financial Performance Metrics

Throughout this quarterly report, we present our operations in the way we believe will be most meaningful, useful, and transparent to anyone using this financial information to evaluate our performance. In addition to the GAAP presentation of net income and certain statutory reporting information, we show certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are valuable in managing our business and drawing comparisons to our peers. These measures are underwriting income, gross premiums written, net premiums written, combined ratios, and net unpaid loss and settlement expenses.

Following is a list of non-GAAP measures found throughout this report with their definitions, relationships to GAAP measures, and explanations of their importance to our operations.

Underwriting Income

Underwriting income or profit represents one measure of the pretax profitability of our insurance operations and is derived by subtracting losses and settlement expenses, policy acquisition costs, and insurance operating expenses from net premium earned. Each of these captions is presented in the statements of earnings but not subtotaled. However, this information is available in total and by segment in note 5 to the financial statements, "Operating Segment Information." The nearest comparable GAAP measure is earnings before income taxes which, in addition to underwriting income, includes net investment income, net realized gains/losses on investments, general corporate expenses, debt costs, and unconsolidated investee earnings.

Gross premiums written

While net premiums earned is the related GAAP measure used in the statements of earnings, gross premiums written is the component of net premiums earned that measures insurance business produced before the impact of ceding reinsurance premiums, but without respect to when those premiums will be recognized as actual revenue. We use this measure as an overall gauge of gross business volume in our insurance underwriting operations with some indication of profit potential subject to the levels of our retentions, expenses and loss costs.

Net premiums written

While net premiums earned is the related GAAP measure used in the statements of earnings, net premiums written is the component of net premiums earned that measures the difference between gross premiums written and the impact of ceding reinsurance premiums, but without respect to when those premiums will be recognized as actual revenue. We use this measure as an indication of retained or net business volume in our insurance underwriting operations. It provides some indication of profit potential subject to our expenses and loss costs.

Combined ratios

This ratio is a common industry measure of profitability for any underwriting operation, and is calculated in two components. First, the loss ratio is losses and settlement expenses divided by net premiums earned. The second

component, the expense ratio, reflects the sum of policy acquisition costs and insurance operating expenses, divided by net premiums earned. The sum of the loss and expense ratios is the combined ratio. The difference between the combined ratio and 100 reflects the per-dollar rate of underwriting income or loss. For example, a combined ratio of 85 implies that for every $100 of premium we earn, we record $15 of underwriting income.

Net Unpaid Loss and Settlement Expenses

Unpaid losses and settlement expenses, as shown in the liabilities section of our balance sheets, represents the total obligations to claimants for both estimates of known claims and estimates for incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims. The related asset item, reinsurance balances recoverable on unpaid losses and settlement expense, is the estimate of known claims and estimates of IBNR that we expect to recover from reinsurers. The net of these two items is generally referred to as net unpaid loss and settlement expenses and is commonly referred to in our disclosures regarding the process of establishing these various estimated amounts.

Critical Accounting Policies

In preparing the condensed consolidated financial statements, we are required to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and the disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities as of the date of the condensed consolidated financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses for the reporting period. Actual results could differ significantly from those estimates.

The most critical accounting policies involve significant estimates and include those used in determining the liability for unpaid losses and settlement expenses, investment valuation and other-than-temporary impairment, recoverability of reinsurance balances, deferred policy acquisition costs and deferred taxes.

Losses and Settlement Expenses

Overview

Loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserves represent our best estimate of ultimate amounts for losses and related settlement expenses from claims that have been reported but not paid, and those losses that have occurred but have not yet been reported to us. Loss reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability, but instead represent our estimates, generally utilizing individual claim estimates and actuarial expertise and estimation techniques at a given accounting date. The loss reserve estimates are expectations of what ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost upon final resolution. These estimates are based on facts and circumstances then known to us, review of historical settlement patterns, estimates of trends in claims frequency and severity, projections of loss costs, expected interpretations of legal theories of liability, and many other factors. In establishing reserves, we also take into account estimated recoveries, reinsurance, salvage, and subrogation. The reserves are reviewed regularly by a team of actuaries we employ.

The process of estimating loss reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables. These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling procedures, claim personnel, economic inflation, legal trends, and legislative changes, among others. The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for loss and LAE is difficult to estimate. Loss reserve estimations also differ significantly by coverage due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the policy limits written, the terms and conditions of the underlying policies, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim, and reporting lags (the time between the occurrence of the policyholder event and when it is actually reported to the insurer). Informed judgment is applied throughout the process. We continually refine our loss reserve estimates as historical loss experience develops and additional claims are reported and settled. We rigorously attempt to consider all significant facts and circumstances known at the time loss reserves are established.

Due to inherent uncertainty underlying loss reserve estimates, including but not limited to the future settlement environment, final resolution of the estimated liability may be different from that anticipated at the reporting date. Therefore, actual paid losses in the future may yield a materially different amount than currently reserved - favorable and unfavorable.The amount by which estimated losses differ from those originally reported for a period is known as "development." Development is unfavorable when the losses ultimately settle for more than the levels at which they were reserved or subsequent estimates indicate a basis for reserve increases on unresolved claims. Development is favorable when losses ultimately settle for less than the amount reserved or subsequent estimates indicate a basis for reducing loss reserves on unresolved claims. We reflect favorable or unfavorable developments of loss reserves in the results of operations in the period the estimates are changed.

We record two categories of loss and LAE reserves - case-specific reserves and IBNR reserves.

Within a reasonable period of time after a claim is reported, our claim department completes an initial investigation and establishes a case reserve. This case-specific reserve is an estimate of the ultimate amount we will have to pay for the claim, including related legal expenses and other costs associated with resolving and settling a particular claim. The estimate reflects all of the current information available regarding the claim, the informed judgment of our professional claim personnel, our reserving practices and experience, and the knowledge of such personnel regarding the nature and value of the specific type of claim. During the life cycle of a particular claim, more information may materialize that causes us to revise the estimate of the ultimate value of the claim either upward or downward. We may determine that it is appropriate to pay portions of the reserve to the claimant or related settlement expenses before final resolution of the claim. The amount of the individual claim reserve will be adjusted accordingly and is based on the most recent information available.

We establish IBNR reserves to estimate the amount we will have to pay for claims that have occurred, but have not yet been reported to us; claims that have been reported to us that may ultimately be paid out differently than

expected by our case-specific reserves; and claims that have been paid and closed, but may reopen and require future payment.

Our IBNR reserving process involves three steps including an initial IBNR generation process that is prospective in nature; a loss and LAE reserve estimation process that occurs retrospectively; and a subsequent discussion and reconciliation between our prospective and retrospective IBNR estimates which includes changes in our provisions for IBNR where deemed appropriate. These three processes are discussed in more detail in the following sections.

LAE represents the cost involved in adjusting and administering losses from policies we issued. The LAE reserves are frequently separated into two components: allocated and unallocated. Allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE) reserves represent an estimate of claims settlement expenses that can be identified with a specific claim or case. Examples of ALAE would be the hiring of an outside adjuster to investigate a claim or an outside attorney to defend our insured. The claims professional typically estimates this cost separately from the loss component in the case reserve. Unallocated loss adjustment expense (ULAE) reserves represent an estimate of claims settlement expenses that cannot be identified with a specific claim. An example of ULAE would be the cost of an internal claims examiner to manage or investigate a reported claim.

All decisions regarding our best estimate of ultimate loss and LAE reserves are made by our Loss Reserve Committee (LRC). The LRC is made up of various members of the management team including the chief executive officer, chief operating officer, chief financial officer, chief actuary, general counsel and other selected executives. We do not use discounting (recognition of the time value of money) in reporting our estimated reserves for losses and settlement expenses. Based on current assumptions used in calculating reserves, we believe that our overall reserve levels at March 31, 2009, make a reasonable provision to meet our future obligations.

Initial IBNR Generation Process

Initial carried IBNR reserves are determined through a reserve generation process. The intent of this process is to establish an initial total reserve that will provide a reasonable provision for the ultimate value of all unpaid loss and ALAE liabilities. For most casualty and surety products, this process involves the use of an initial loss and ALAE ratio that is applied to the earned premium for a given period. The result is our best initial estimate of the expected amount of ultimate loss and ALAE for the period by product. Paid and case reserves are subtracted from this initial estimate of ultimate loss and ALAE to determine a carried IBNR reserve.

For most property products, we use an alternative method of determining an appropriate provision for initial IBNR. Since this segment is characterized by a shorter period of time between claim occurrence and claim settlement, the IBNR reserve is determined by an initial loss percentage applied to the rolling 12 month's premium earned. No deductions for paid or case reserves are made. This alternative method of determining initial IBNR reacts more quickly to the actual loss emergence and is more appropriate for our property products where final claim resolution occurs quickly.

We do not reserve for natural or man-made catastrophes until an event has occurred. Shortly after such occurrence, we review insured locations exposed to the event, model loss estimates of the event based on our own exposures, and industry loss estimates of the event, and we consider our knowledge of frequency and severity from early claim reports to determine an appropriate reserve for the catastrophe. These reserves are reviewed frequently based on loss reports and appropriate changes to our estimates are made to reflect any new information as it arises.

The initial loss and ALAE ratios that are applied to earned premium are reviewed at least semi-annually. Prospective estimates are made based on historical loss experience adjusted for mix and price change and loss cost inflation. The initial loss and ALAE ratios also reflect some provision for estimation risk. We consider estimation risk by segment and product line. A segment with greater overall volatility and uncertainty has greater estimation risk. Characteristics of segments and products with higher estimation risk, include those exhibiting, but not limited to, the following characteristics:

� significant changes in underlying policy terms and conditions,
� a new business or one experiencing significant growth and/or high turnover,
� small volume or lacking internal data requiring significant reliance on external data,
� longer emergence patterns with exposures to latent unforeseen mass tort,
� high severity and/or low frequency,
� operational processes undergoing significant change, and/or
� high sensitivity to significant swings in loss trends or economic change.

The historical and prospective loss and ALAE estimates along with the risks listed are the basis for determining our initial and subsequent carried reserves. Adjustments in the initial loss ratio by product and segment are made where necessary and reflect updated assumptions regarding loss experience, loss trends, price changes, and prevailing risk factors. The LRC makes all final decisions regarding changes in the initial loss and ALAE ratios.

Loss and LAE Reserve Estimation Process

A full analysis of our loss reserves takes place at least semi-annually. The purpose of these analyses is to provide validation of our carried loss reserves. Estimates of the expected value of the unpaid loss and LAE are derived using actuarial methodologies. These estimates are then compared to the carried loss reserves to determine the appropriateness of the current reserve balance.

The process of estimating ultimate payment for claims and claims expenses begins with the collection and analysis of current and historical claim data. Data on individual reported claims including paid amounts and individual claim adjuster estimates are grouped by common characteristics. There is judgment involved in this grouping. Considerations when grouping data include the volume of the data available, the credibility of the data available, the homogeneity of the risks in each cohort, and both settlement and payment pattern consistency. We use this data to determine historical claim reporting and payment patterns which are used in the analysis of ultimate claim liabilities. For portions of the business without sufficiently large numbers

of policies or that have not accumulated sufficient historical statistics, our own data is supplemented with external or industry average data as available and when appropriate. For our executive products and marine business, we utilize external data extensively.

In addition to the review of historical claim reporting and payment patterns, we also incorporate an estimate of expected losses relative to premium by year into the analysis. The expected losses are based on a review of historical loss performance, trends in frequency and severity, and price level changes. The estimation of expected losses is subject to judgment including consideration given to internal and industry data available, growth and policy turnover, changes in policy limits, changes in underlying policy provisions, changes in legal and regulatory interpretations of policy provisions, and changes in reinsurance structure.

We use historical development patterns, estimations of the expected loss ratios, and standard actuarial methods to derive an estimate of the ultimate level of loss and LAE payments necessary to settle all the claims occurring as of the end of the evaluation period. Once an estimate of the ultimate level of claim payments has been derived, the amount of paid loss and LAE and case reserve through the evaluation date is subtracted to reveal the resulting level of IBNR.

Our reserve processes include multiple standard actuarial methods for determining estimates of IBNR reserves. Other supplementary methodologies are incorporated as deemed necessary. Mass tort and latent liabilities are examples of exposures where supplementary methodologies are used. Each method produces an estimate of ultimate loss by accident year. We review all of these various estimates and the actuaries assign weight to each based on the characteristics of the product being reviewed. The result is a single actuarial point estimate by product, by accident year.

Our estimates of ultimate loss and LAE reserves are subject to change as additional data emerges. This could occur as a result of change in loss development patterns, a revision in expected loss ratios, the emergence of exceptional loss activity, a change in weightings between actuarial methods, the addition of new actuarial methodologies or new information that merits inclusion, or the emergence of internal variables or external factors that would alter our view.

There is uncertainty in the estimates of ultimate losses. Significant risk factors to the reserve estimate include, but are not limited to, unforeseen or unquantifiable changes in:

� loss payment patterns,
� loss reporting patterns,
� frequency and severity trends,
� underlying policy terms and conditions,
� business or exposure mix, . . .