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FRE > SEC Filings for FRE > Form 10-K on 11-Mar-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-K for FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORP


11-Mar-2009

Annual Report


ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

You should read this MD&A in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and related notes for the year ended December 31, 2008.

Our financial results for the year ended December 31, 2008 reflect the adverse conditions in the U.S. mortgage markets during the year, which deteriorated dramatically during the second half of the year. We also experienced major changes in our regulatory environment and our management and supervision during the year, principally associated with our entry into conservatorship. Under conservatorship, we have made changes to certain business practices that are designed to provide support for the mortgage market in a manner that serves public policy and other non-financial objectives but that may not contribute to profitability. Some of these changes have increased our expenses or caused us to forego revenue opportunities.

Deterioration of market conditions, including rapidly declining home prices, higher mortgage delinquency rates and higher loss severities, contributed to large credit-related expenses for the third and fourth quarters and the full year of 2008. In addition, non-cash fair value adjustments and a partial valuation allowance against our net deferred tax assets have resulted in deficits in our stockholders' equity and made it necessary for us to make large draws on Treasury's funding commitment. These draws will result in a large dividend obligation on our senior preferred stock. We expect to make additional draws on Treasury's funding commitment in the future. The size of such draws will be determined by a variety of factors, including whether market conditions continue to deteriorate.

Conservatorship

For information on the conservatorship, see "BUSINESS - Conservatorship and Related Developments." The conservatorship and related developments have had a wide-ranging impact on us, including our regulatory supervision, management, business objectives, financial condition and results of operations. The conservatorship has no specified termination date. There can be no assurance as to when or how the conservatorship will be terminated or what changes may occur to our business structure during or following conservatorship, including whether we will continue to exist.

Key actions related to the conservatorship and the conduct of our business since the conservatorship was established include the following:

• the execution of the Purchase Agreement with Treasury, pursuant to which we issued to Treasury both senior preferred stock and a warrant to purchase common stock, our receipt of $13.8 billion from Treasury in November 2008 pursuant to its commitment under the Purchase Agreement, and FHFA's request to Treasury of a draw of $30.8 billion;

• the execution of the Lending Agreement under which Treasury has established a temporary secured lending credit facility that is available to us through December 31, 2009;

• the appointment by the Conservator of a new Chief Executive Officer and the appointment of a new non-executive Chairman and 10 other directors to our reconstituted Board of Directors (David M. Moffett recently resigned as Chief Executive Officer and resigned as a member of our Board of Directors, effective no later than March 13, 2009; John A. Koskinen has been appointed Interim Chief Executive Officer and Robert R. Glauber has been appointed interim non-executive Chairman of the Board of Directors, effective upon Mr. Moffett's resignation);

• the elimination by the Conservator of dividends on common and preferred stock (other than on the senior preferred stock); and

• the announcement by FHFA that existing statutory and FHFA-directed regulatory capital requirements will not be binding during the conservatorship.

On February 18, 2009, Treasury Secretary Geithner issued a statement outlining Treasury's efforts to strengthen its commitment to us by increasing the funding available under the Purchase Agreement from $100 billion to $200 billion, affirming Treasury's plans to continue purchasing Freddie Mac mortgage-related securities and increasing the size limit on our mortgage-related investments portfolio by $50 billion to $900 billion with a corresponding increase in the amount of allowable debt outstanding. As of the filing of this annual report on Form 10-K, the Purchase Agreement has not been amended to reflect the increase in Treasury's commitment.

Based on our charter, public statements from Treasury and FHFA officials and guidance from our Conservator, our business objectives include:

• providing liquidity, stability and affordability in the mortgage market;

• immediately providing additional assistance to the struggling housing and mortgage markets;

• reducing the need to draw funds from Treasury pursuant to the Purchase Agreement;

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• returning to long-term profitability; and

• protecting the interests of taxpayers.

These objectives create conflicts in strategic and day-to-day decision making that will likely lead to suboptimal outcomes for one or more, or possibly all, of these objectives. Our business is also subject to significant new restrictions that could limit our ability to achieve one or more of these objectives, including the requirements under the Purchase Agreement that we
(i) limit the size of our mortgage-related investments portfolio to $900 billion as of December 31, 2009 and, thereafter, decrease the size of our mortgage-related investments portfolio at the rate of 10% per year until it reaches $250 billion, and (ii) not incur indebtedness that would result in our aggregate indebtedness exceeding a specified amount, without the prior written consent of Treasury. The balance of our mortgage-related investments portfolio and indebtedness at December 31, 2008 did not exceed the Purchase Agreement limits.

On February 18, 2009, the Obama Administration announced the HASP, which includes (a) an initiative that will allow mortgages currently owned or guaranteed by us to be refinanced without obtaining additional credit enhancement beyond that already in place for that loan; and (b) an initiative to encourage modifications of mortgages for both homeowners who are in default and those who are at risk of imminent default, through various government incentives to servicers, mortgage holders and homeowners. At present, it is difficult for us to predict the full extent of our activities under these initiatives and assess their impact on us. However, to the extent that our servicers and borrowers participate in these programs in large numbers, it is likely that the costs we incur associated with modifications of loans, the costs associated with servicer and borrower incentive fees and the potential accounting impacts, will be substantial.

As a result of the draws under the Purchase Agreement, the aggregate liquidation preference of the senior preferred stock will increase from $1.0 billion as of September 8, 2008 to $45.6 billion. Our annual dividend obligation on the senior preferred stock, based on that liquidation preference, will be $4.6 billion, which is in excess of our annual historical earnings in most periods. These dividend obligations make it more likely that we will face increasingly negative cash flows from operations. To date, our need for funding under the Purchase Agreement has not been caused by cash flow shortfalls but rather primarily reflects large credit-related expenses and non-cash fair value adjustments as well as a partial valuation allowance against our net deferred tax assets that resulted in reductions to our GAAP stockholders' equity (deficit). Under the Purchase Agreement, our ability to repay the liquidation preference of the senior preferred stock is limited and we may not be able to do so for the foreseeable future, if at all. The aggregate liquidation preference of the senior preferred stock and our related dividend obligations could increase further as a result of additional draws under the Purchase Agreement or any dividends or quarterly commitment fees payable under the Purchase Agreement that are not paid in cash. The amounts we are obligated to pay in dividends on the senior preferred stock are substantial and will have an adverse impact on our financial position and net worth and could substantially delay our return to long-term profitability or make long-term profitability unlikely. For more information, see "RISK FACTORS - Conservatorship and Related Developments - Factors including credit losses from our mortgage guarantee activities have had an increasingly negative impact on our cash flows from operations during 2007 and 2008. As we anticipate these trends to continue for the foreseeable future, it is likely that the company will increasingly rely upon access to the public debt markets as a source of funding for ongoing operations."

For more information on the risks to our business relating to the conservatorship and uncertainties regarding the future of our business, see "RISK FACTORS."

Housing and Economic Conditions and Impact on 2008 Results

The U.S. residential mortgage market experienced substantial deterioration during 2008 and early 2009, which adversely affected our financial condition and results of operations. We expect the residential mortgage market will continue to deteriorate in 2009.

Home price declines accelerated nationwide during 2008, with significant regional variations. We estimate that the national decline in home prices from the end of the third quarter of 2006 until the end of 2008 was approximately 16.8%, based on our own index, which is based on our single-family mortgage portfolio. We believe that there will be additional declines of 5 to 10% during 2009 based on our index. Other indices of home price changes may have different results than our own, as they are determined using different pools of mortgage loans. The percentage decline in home prices was particularly large in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where we have significant concentrations of mortgage loans in our single-family mortgage portfolio, which includes loans underlying our PCs and Structured Securities. We estimate that home prices, as measured by our index, declined during 2008 by 26%, 25%, 26% and 30% in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, respectively.

Unemployment rates also worsened significantly. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported unemployment rates in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada of 9.3%, 8.1%, 6.9% and 9.1%, respectively, while the national rate was 7.2% as of December 31, 2008. Although inflation moderated by year end, an upward spike in food and energy prices during 2008 further eroded household financial conditions, and real consumer spending declined significantly. Both consumer and

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business credit tightened considerably during the second half of 2008 as financial institutions curtailed their lending activities. This contributed to significant increases in credit spreads for both mortgage and corporate loans.

These macroeconomic conditions contributed to a substantial increase in the number of delinquent loans in our single-family mortgage portfolio during 2008 as well as the rate of transition of these loans from delinquency through foreclosure. Significant increases in market-reported delinquency rates for mortgages serviced by financial institutions during 2008 were reported not only for subprime and Alt-A loans, but also for prime loans. This delinquency data suggests that continuing home price declines and growing unemployment are now affecting behavior by a broader segment of mortgage borrowers, increasing numbers of whom are "underwater," or owing more on their mortgage loans than their homes are currently worth. Our loan loss severities, or the average amount of recognized losses per loan, and redefault rates on modified loans also significantly increased during 2008, especially in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where we have significant concentrations of mortgage loans with higher average loan balances than in other states.

We are operating in a challenging environment. A number of our major customers or counterparties have failed, been acquired, or received substantial government assistance in 2008, including Washington Mutual Bank, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., or Lehman, JP Morgan Chase & Co., American International Group, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc., IndyMac Bank, FSB, Citigroup Inc. and Wachovia Corporation. In an attempt to stabilize the markets and restore liquidity, the U.S. government introduced several unprecedented programs to provide various forms of financial support to market participants. One of these programs, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, was created pursuant to EESA to help stabilize the financial markets and has provided more than $250 billion of capital investments into U.S. financial institutions. Many of our largest single-family seller/servicers participated and have received capital from Treasury through the TARP. Another of these programs involves guarantees by the FDIC of the debt obligations issued by banks that elect to participate in the program. Certain of these programs and reduced investor demand for corporate debt have limited our access to long-term and callable funding. Uncertainty in the debt market has also contributed to an increase in our borrowing costs relative to the U.S. Treasury market and LIBOR indices. See "LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES" for further information.

Adverse market developments have been the principal drivers of our substantially increased losses for 2008. Our provision for credit losses increased from $2.9 billion in 2007 to $16.4 billion in 2008, principally due to increased estimates of incurred losses on loans we own or guarantee caused by the deteriorating economic conditions as evidenced by our increased rates of delinquency and foreclosure; increased mortgage loan loss severities; and, to a lesser extent, heightened concerns that certain of our seller/servicer counterparties may fail to perform their recourse or repurchase obligations to us. For information regarding how we derive our estimate for the provision for credit losses, see "CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES."

The deteriorating market conditions during 2008 also led to a considerably more pessimistic outlook for the performance of the non-agency mortgage-related securities we own. We recorded security impairments on non-agency mortgage-related securities of $16.6 billion in 2008. The loans backing these securities exhibited much worse delinquency behavior as compared to loans in our single-family mortgage portfolio, which includes loans we have guaranteed. The deteriorating market conditions not only contributed to poor performance during 2008, but significantly impacted our expectations regarding future performance, both of which are critical in assessing security impairments. Furthermore, the mortgage-related securities backed by subprime loans, Alt-A and other loans and MTA loans, have significantly greater concentrations in the states that are undergoing the greatest economic stress, including California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. Our non-agency mortgage-related securities backed by other loans, include securities backed by FHA/VA mortgages, home equity lines of credit and other residential loans. Additionally, during the second half of 2008 there were significant negative ratings actions and sustained categorical asset price declines most notably in the mortgage-related securities backed by MTA loans, which are a type of option ARM. Our non-agency mortgage-related securities backed by subprime and Alt-A and other loans do not include a significant amount of option ARM. At December 31, 2008 and 2007, our net unrealized losses on mortgage-related securities were $38.2 billion and $10.1 billion, respectively. Our net unrealized losses related to non-agency mortgage-related securities backed by MTA loans of $4.7 billion and $1.3 billion at December 31, 2008 and 2007, respectively. We believe that these unrealized losses on non-agency mortgage-related securities at December 31, 2008 were principally a result of decreased liquidity and larger risk premiums in the non-agency mortgage market. The combination of all of these factors not only had a material, negative impact on our view of expected performance, but also significantly reduced the likelihood of more favorable outcomes, resulting in a substantial increase in other-than-temporary impairments in 2008.

Due to the rapid deterioration of market conditions discussed above, the uncertainty of future market conditions on our results of operations and the uncertainty surrounding our future business model as a result of our placement into conservatorship, we recorded a $22.2 billion non-cash charge in the second half of 2008 in order to establish a partial valuation allowance against our net deferred tax assets. As a result, at December 31, 2008, we had a remaining deferred tax asset of $15.4 billion, principally representing the tax effect of unrealized losses on our available-for-sale securities portfolio.

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Credit Overview

The factors affecting all residential mortgage market participants during 2008 adversely impacted our single-family mortgage portfolio during 2008. The following statistics illustrate the credit deterioration of loans in our single-family mortgage portfolio, which consists of single-family mortgage loans on our consolidated balance sheets as well as those backing our guaranteed PCs and Structured Securities.

Table 6 - Credit Statistics, Single-Family Mortgage Portfolio(1)


                                                                                            As of
                                                         12/31/2008      09/30/2008      06/30/2008      03/31/2008      12/31/2007

Delinquency rate(2)                                            1.72 %          1.22 %          0.93 %          0.77 %          0.65 %
Non-performing assets (in millions)(3)                   $   47,959      $   35,497      $   27,480      $   22,379      $   18,121
REO inventory (in units)                                     29,340          28,089          22,029          18,419          14,394


                                                                                 For the Three Months Ended
                                                         12/31/2008      09/30/2008      06/30/2008      03/31/2008      12/31/2007
                                                                                  (in units, unless noted)

Loan modifications(4)                                        17,695           8,456           4,687           4,246           2,272
REO acquisitions                                             12,296          15,880          12,410           9,939           7,284
REO disposition severity ratio(5)                              32.8 %          29.3 %          25.2 %          21.4 %          18.1 %
Single-family credit losses (in millions)(6)             $    1,151      $    1,270      $      810      $      528      $      236

(1) Consists of single-family mortgage loans for which we actively manage credit risk, which are those loans held in our mortgage-related investments portfolio as well as those loans underlying our PCs and Structured Securities and excluding certain Structured Transactions and that portion of our Structured Securities that are backed by Ginnie Mae Certificates.
(2) We report single-family delinquency rate information based on the number of loans that are 90 days or more past due and those in the process of foreclosure, excluding Structured Transactions. Mortgage loans whose contractual terms have been modified under agreement with the borrower are not included if the borrower is less than 90 days delinquent under the modified terms. Our delinquency rates for the single-family mortgage portfolio including Structured Transactions were 1.83% and 0.76% at December 31, 2008 and 2007, respectively. See "CREDIT RISKS - Mortgage Credit Risk - Delinquencies" for further information.
(3) Includes those loans in our single-family mortgage portfolio, based on unpaid principal balances, that are past due for 90 days or more or where contractual terms have been modified as a troubled debt restructuring. Also includes single-family loans purchased under our financial guarantees as well as REO, which are acquired principally through foreclosure on loans within our single-family mortgage portfolio.
(4) Consist of modifications under agreement with the borrower. Excludes forbearance agreements, which are made in certain circumstances and under which reduced or no payments are required during a defined period, as well as repayment plans, which are separate agreements with the borrower to repay past due amounts and return to compliance with the original terms.
(5) Calculated as the aggregate amount of our losses recorded on disposition of REO properties during the respective quarterly period divided by the aggregate unpaid principal balances of the related loans with the borrowers. The amount of losses recognized on disposition of the properties is equal to the amount by which the unpaid principal balance of loans exceeds the amount of net sales proceeds from disposition of the properties. Excludes other related credit losses, such as property maintenance and costs, as well as related recoveries from credit enhancements, such as mortgage insurance.
(6) Consists of single-family REO operations expense plus charge-offs, net of recoveries from third-party insurance and other credit enhancements. See "CREDIT RISKS - Mortgage Credit Risk - Credit Loss Performance" for further information.

The main contributors to our worsening credit statistics during 2008 were single-family loans originated in 2006 and 2007 as well as certain loan groups, such as Alt-A and interest-only mortgage loans. As of December 31, 2008, loans originated during 2006 and 2007 represented approximately 34% of the unpaid principal balance of single-family loans underlying our PCs and Structured Securities and 18% of the unpaid principal balance of single-family loans on our consolidated balance sheet. Although the credit characteristics of loans underlying our newly issued guarantees during 2008 have progressively improved, we have experienced weak credit performance to date from loans purchased in the first half of 2008, which we attribute to the combination of the timeframe of implementation of new loan underwriting requirements, which became effective as our customer contracts permitted, and the poor housing and economic conditions during the year. Sufficient time has not yet elapsed to evaluate the credit performance of loans purchased during the second half of 2008.

The Alt-A and interest-only loan groups have been particularly adversely affected by certain macroeconomic factors, such as declines in home prices, which have resulted in erosion in the borrower's equity. Our holdings of loans in these groups are concentrated in the West region. The West region comprised 26% of the unpaid principal balance of our single-family mortgage portfolio as of December 31, 2008, but accounted for 30% and 11% of our REO acquisitions, based on property count during 2008 and 2007, respectively. The West region also accounted for approximately 45% and 8% of our credit losses during 2008 and 2007, respectively. Alt-A loans, which represented approximately 10% of our single-family mortgage portfolio as of both December 31, 2008 and 2007, accounted for approximately 50% of our credit losses in 2008 compared to 18% during 2007. In addition, stressed markets in the West region (especially California, Arizona and Nevada) and Florida tend to have higher average loan balances than the rest of the U.S. and were more affected by the steep home price declines. If home prices continue to decline in these and other regions, the credit statistics of our single-family mortgage portfolio will continue to deteriorate in 2009.

As of December 31, 2008, single-family mortgage loans in the state of Florida comprised approximately 7% of our single-family mortgage portfolio, based on unpaid principal balances; however, the loans in this state made up approximately 21% of the total delinquent loans in our single-family mortgage portfolio, based on unpaid principal balances. Consequently, Florida remains our leading state for seriously delinquent mortgage loans; however, these have been slow to transition to REO and be reflected in our recognized credit losses due to the duration of Florida's foreclosure process and our suspension

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of foreclosure sales discussed below. California and Florida were the states where we experienced the highest credit losses during 2008; these states comprised 41% of our single-family credit losses on a combined basis. These and other factors caused us to significantly increase our estimate for loan loss reserves during 2008.

We have taken several steps during 2008 and continuing in 2009 designed to support homeowners in the U.S. and mitigate the continued growth of our non-performing assets, some of which were undertaken at the direction of FHFA. We continue to expand our efforts to increase our use of foreclosure alternatives, and have expanded our staff to assist our seller/servicers in completing loan modifications and other outreach programs with the objective of keeping more borrowers in their homes. We expect that many of these efforts will have a negative impact on our financial results. Some of these initiatives during 2008 and 2009 include:

• approving approximately 81,000 workout plans and agreements with borrowers for the estimated 400,000 single-family loans in our single-family mortgage portfolio that were or became delinquent (90 days or more past due or were in foreclosure) during 2008;

• delegating expanded workout authority to our seller/servicers and doubling the amount of compensation we provide to seller/servicers for successful workouts of delinquent loans;

• assisting our seller/servicers in efforts to reach out to delinquent borrowers earlier and developing programs to do so on a broad scale;

• in conjunction with FHFA, the HOPE NOW Alliance and other industry participants, initiating implementation of the Streamlined Modification Program;

• temporarily suspending all foreclosure sales of occupied homes from November 26, 2008 through January 31, 2009 and from February 14, 2009 through March 6, 2009 to allow for implementation of the Streamlined Modification Program by our seller/servicers; and

• the HASP announced by the Obama Administration, under which we and our servicers will increase loan modification and refinancing efforts. We expect our efforts under HASP will replace the Streamlined Modification Program. Beginning March 7, 2009, we will suspend foreclosure sales for those loans that are eligible for modification under the HASP until our servicers determine that the borrower of such a loan is not responsive or that the loan does not qualify for a modification under HASP or any of our other alternatives to foreclosure.

These activities will create fluctuations in our credit statistics. For example, the suspension of foreclosure sales for occupied homes has temporarily reduced the rate of growth of our REO inventory and credit losses since November 2008; however, this also has created a temporary increase in the number of delinquent loans that remain in our single-family mortgage portfolio, which results in higher reported delinquency rates than without our suspension of foreclosures. In addition, the implementation of the Streamlined Modification Program and the . . .

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