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AIG > SEC Filings for AIG > Form 10-K on 2-Mar-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-K for AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC


2-Mar-2009

Annual Report


Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Throughout this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, AIG presents its operations in the way it believes will be most meaningful. Statutory underwriting profit (loss) is presented in accordance with accounting principles prescribed by insurance regulatory authorities because these are standard measures of performance used in the insurance industry and thus allow more meaningful comparisons with AIG's insurance competitors. AIG has also incorporated into this discussion a number of cross-references to additional information included throughout this Annual Report on Form 10-K to assist readers seeking additional information related to a particular subject.

Index Page

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information 39 Overview 39 Liquidity Events in the Second Half of 2008 40 Debt 53 Results of Operations 63 Consolidated Results 63 Segment Results 71 General Insurance Operations 71 Liability for unpaid claims and claims adjustment expense 79 Life Insurance & Retirement Services Operations 99 Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs and Sales Inducement Assets 113 Financial Services Operations 115 Asset Management Operations 119 Critical Accounting Estimates 123 Capital Resources and Liquidity 152 Shareholders' Equity 152 Investments 154 Investment Strategy 155 Portfolio Review 167 Other-than-temporary impairments 167 Unrealized gains and losses 171 Risk Management 172 Overview 172 Corporate Risk Management 173 Credit Risk Management 174 Market Risk Management 176 Operational Risk Management 178 Insurance Risk Management 179 Segment Risk Management 181 Insurance Operations 181 Financial Services 185 Asset Management 188 Recent Accounting Standards 189

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Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information

This Annual Report on Form 10-K and other publicly available documents may include, and AIG's officers and representatives may from time to time make, projections and statements which may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These projections and statements are not historical facts but instead represent only AIG's belief regarding future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside AIG's control. These projections and statements may address, among other things, the outcome of proposed transactions with the NY Fed and the United States Department of the Treasury, the number, size, terms, cost and timing of dispositions and their potential effect on AIG's businesses, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows and liquidity (and AIG at any time and from time to time may change its plans with respect to the sale of one or more businesses), AIG's exposures to subprime mortgages, monoline insurers and the residential and commercial real estate markets and AIG's strategy for growth, product development, market position, financial results and reserves. It is possible that AIG's actual results and financial condition will differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results and financial condition indicated in these projections and statements. Factors that could cause AIG's actual results to differ, possibly materially, from those in the specific projections and statements include a failure to complete the proposed transactions with the NY Fed and the United States Department of the Treasury, developments in global credit markets and such other factors as discussed throughout this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and in Item 1A. Risk Factors of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. AIG is not under any obligation (and expressly disclaims any obligation) to update or alter any projection or other statement, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Overview

Operations

AIG identifies its operating segments by product line, consistent with its management structure. These segments are General Insurance, Life Insurance & Retirement Services, Financial Services and Asset Management. Through these operating segments, AIG provides insurance, financial and investment products and services to both businesses and individuals in more than 130 countries and jurisdictions.

AIG's subsidiaries serve commercial, institutional and individual customers through an extensive property-casualty and life insurance and retirement services network. AIG's Financial Services businesses include commercial aircraft and equipment leasing, capital markets operations and consumer finance, both in the United States and abroad. AIG also provides asset management services to institutions and individuals.

General Business Environment

The 2008 business environment was one of the most difficult in recent decades. In the U.S., real GDP shrank at annual rates of more than 4 percent in the second half of the year and almost 4 percent in the fourth quarter alone. At the beginning of 2008, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent and by year-end was 7.2 percent.

The strong declines in the overall U.S. economy during the second half of 2008 occurred despite repeated reductions of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the creation of numerous credit facilities for the banking system and the passage of a stimulus package.

Consideration of AIG's Ability to Continue as a Going Concern

In connection with the preparation of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, management has assessed whether AIG has the ability to continue as a going concern (See Note 1 to the Consolidated Financial Statements). In making this assessment, AIG has considered:

• The commitment of the NY Fed and the United States Department of the Treasury to the orderly restructuring of AIG and their commitment to continuing to work with AIG to maintain its ability to meet its obligations as they come due;

• The liquidity events in the second half of 2008, including transactions with the NY Fed and the United States Department of the Treasury;

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• AIG's liquidity-related actions and plans to stabilize its businesses and repay the Fed Facility;

• The level of AIG's realized and unrealized losses and the negative impact of these losses in shareholders' equity and on the capital levels of AIG's insurance subsidiaries;

• The substantial resolution of the liquidity issues surrounding AIGFP's multi-sector super senior credit default swap portfolio and the U.S. securities lending program;

• The additional capital provided to AIG by the United States Department of the Treasury;

• Anticipated transactions with the NY Fed and the United States Department of the Treasury;

• The continuing liquidity issues in AIG's businesses and AIG's actions to address such issues; and

• The substantial risks to which AIG is subject.

Each of these items is discussed in more detail below.

In considering these items, management has made significant judgments and estimates with respect to the potentially adverse financial and liquidity effects of AIG's risks and uncertainties. Management has also assessed other items and risks arising in AIG's businesses and made reasonable judgments and estimates with respect thereto. After consideration, management believes that it will have adequate liquidity to finance and operate AIG's businesses and continue as a going concern for at least the next twelve months.

It is possible that the actual outcome of one or more of management's plans could be materially different or that one or more of management's significant judgments or estimates about the potential effects of the risks and uncertainties could prove to be materially incorrect or that the principal transactions disclosed in Note 23 to the Consolidated Financial Statements (and as discussed below) are not consummated. If one or more of these possible outcomes is realized, AIG may need additional U.S. government support to meet its obligations as they come due.

Liquidity

Liquidity Events in the Second Half of 2008

In the second half of 2008, AIG experienced an unprecedented strain on liquidity. This strain led to a series of transactions with the NY Fed and the United States Department of the Treasury. The two principal causes of the liquidity strain were demands for the return of cash collateral under the U.S. securities lending program and collateral calls on AIGFP's super senior multi-sector CDO credit default swap portfolio.

Under AIG's securities lending program, cash collateral was received from borrowers in exchange for loans of securities owned by AIG's insurance company subsidiaries. The cash was invested by AIG in fixed income securities, primarily residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), to earn a spread. During September 2008, borrowers began in increasing numbers to request a return of their cash collateral. Because of the illiquidity in the market for RMBS, AIG was unable to sell RMBS at acceptable prices and was forced to find alternative sources of cash to meet these requests. As of the end of August, AIG's U.S. securities lending program had approximately $69 billion of borrowings outstanding. See Investments - Securities Lending Activities for additional information about the securities lending program.

Additionally, throughout the second half of 2008, declines in the fair values of the super senior multi-sector CDO securities protected by AIGFP's credit default swap portfolio, together with ratings downgrades of the CDO securities, resulted in AIGFP being required to post significant additional collateral. As of the end of August 2008, AIG had posted approximately $19.7 billion of collateral under its super senior credit default swap portfolio. See Critical Accounting Estimates - Fair Value Measurements of Certain Financial Assets and Liabilities for additional information about AIGFP's super senior multi-sector CDO credit default swap portfolio.

Both of these liquidity strains were significantly exacerbated by the downgrades of AIG's long-term debt ratings by S&P, Moody's and Fitch on September 15, 2008.

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Arrangements with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the United States Department of the Treasury

Fed Credit Agreement

Because of these immediate liquidity requirements, AIG's Board of Directors determined that the only viable alternative was to accept an arrangement offered by the NY Fed, and on September 16, 2008, approved borrowing from the NY Fed based on a term sheet that set forth the terms of the secured credit agreement and related equity participation. Over the next six days, AIG elected Edward M. Liddy Director, Chairman and CEO, replacing Robert Willumstad in those positions, negotiated a definitive credit agreement with the NY Fed and borrowed, on a secured basis, approximately $37 billion from the NY Fed, enabling AIG to meet its liquidity requirements before formally entering into a credit agreement with the NY Fed.

On September 22, 2008, AIG entered into the Fed Credit Agreement in the form of a two-year secured loan and the Pledge Agreement with the NY Fed. On November 9, 2008, AIG and the NY Fed agreed to amend the Fed Credit Agreement to reduce the total commitment under the Fed Facility to $60 billion following the issuance of the Series D Preferred Stock (described below), extend the term of the Fed Facility to 5 years and reduce the related interest and fees payable under the Fed Facility. See Note 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for information regarding the terms of and borrowings under the Fed Credit Agreement.

Series D Preferred Stock Issuance

On November 25, 2008, AIG entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the Series D Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement) with the United States Department of the Treasury pursuant to which, among other things, AIG issued and sold to the United States Department of the Treasury, as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Systemically Significant Failing Institutions Program, $40 billion of Series D Preferred Stock, and a warrant to purchase 53,798,766 shares of common stock (the Warrant). The proceeds from the sale of the Series D Preferred Stock and the Warrant were used to repay borrowings under the Fed Facility. See Note 15 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information on the Series D Preferred Stock and the Warrant.

Termination of $62 billion of CDS

On November 25, 2008, AIG entered into a Master Investment and Credit Agreement (the ML III Agreement) with the NY Fed, Maiden Lane III LLC (ML III), and The Bank of New York Mellon, which established arrangements, through ML III, to fund the purchase of the multi-sector CDOs underlying or related to certain credit default swaps and other similar derivative instruments (CDS) written by AIG Financial Products Corp. in connection with the termination of such CDS transactions. Concurrently, AIG Financial Products Corp.'s counterparties to such CDS transactions agreed to terminate those CDS transactions relating to the multi-sector CDOs purchased from them by ML III. Through December 31, 2008, ML III had purchased from counterparties a total of $62.1 billion in par amount of CDO securities, and the associated credit default swaps had been terminated. Approximately $12.2 billion notional amount of AIG Financial Products Corp.'s CDS transactions referencing super senior multi-sector CDOs remained outstanding as of February 18, 2009. See Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information on the transactions with ML III.

Resolution of U.S. Securities Lending Program

On December 12, 2008, AIG, certain of AIG's wholly owned U.S. life insurance subsidiaries, and AIG Securities Lending Corp. (the AIG Agent), another AIG subsidiary, entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the ML II Agreement) with Maiden Lane II LLC (ML II), a Delaware limited liability company whose sole member is the NY Fed.

Pursuant to the ML II Agreement, the life insurance subsidiaries sold to ML II all of their undivided interests in a pool of $39.3 billion face amount of RMBS held by the AIG Agent as agent of the life insurance subsidiaries in connection with AIG's U.S. securities lending program. In exchange for the RMBS, the life insurance subsidiaries received an initial purchase price of approximately $19.8 billion plus the right to receive deferred contingent portions of the total purchase price of $1 billion plus participation in the residual, each of which is subordinated to the repayment of the NY Fed loan to ML II. These life insurance subsidiaries applied the net cash proceeds of sale of

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the RMBS toward the amounts due by such life insurance subsidiaries in terminating both the U.S. securities lending program and the interim agreement entered into with the NY Fed whereby the NY Fed borrowed securities from AIG subsidiaries in exchange for cash collateral. See Investments - Securities Lending Activities and Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information on the transaction with ML II.

AIG Affiliates Participate in the NY Fed's Commercial Paper Funding Facility

On October 27, 2008, four affiliates of AIG (including ILFC) applied for participation in the CPFF. Currently, AIG Funding, Inc., an AIG subsidiary, and two of AIGFP's sponsored vehicles, Curzon Funding LLC and Nightingale Finance LLC may issue up to approximately $6.9 billion, $7.2 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, of commercial paper under the CPFF. AIG Funding uses the proceeds to refinance AIG's outstanding commercial paper as it matures, meet other working capital needs and make prepayments under the Fed Facility while the two other programs use the proceeds to refinance maturing commercial paper. On January 21, 2009, S&P downgraded ILFC's short-term credit rating and, as a result, ILFC can no longer participate in the CPFF.

Series C Preferred Stock Issuance

On March 1, 2009, AIG entered into the Series C Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement with the Trust, pursuant to which AIG agreed to issue and sell 100,000 shares of Series C Preferred Stock to the Trust. AIG expects to issue the Series C Preferred Stock to the Trust in early March, 2009. The aggregate purchase price for the Series C Preferred Stock was $500,000, with an understanding that additional and independently sufficient consideration was also furnished in September 2008 by the NY Fed in the form of its $85 billion lending commitment under the Fed Credit Agreement.

The Series C Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement, among other things:

• provides the Trust with rights to require registration of the Series C Preferred Stock under the Securities Act of 1933 and for AIG to facilitate other dispositions;

• prohibits AIG from issuing capital stock without the approval of the Trust so long as the Trust owns 50 percent of the Series C Preferred Stock, subject to certain exceptions relating to existing obligations and employee benefit plans;

• requires AIG and its Board of Directors to work in good faith with the Trust to ensure satisfactory corporate governance arrangements;

• requires the following proposals to be presented to AIG's shareholders at AIG's 2009 Annual Meeting of Shareholders:

• to amend AIG's Restated Certificate of Incorporation to permit AIG's Board of Directors to issue classes of preferred stock that are not of equal rank and cause the Series D Preferred Stock and any other series of preferred stock subsequently issued to the United States Department of the Treasury to rank senior to the Series C Preferred Stock and any other subsequently issued series of preferred stock that is not issued to the United States Department of the Treasury; and

• to eliminate any restriction on the pledging of all or substantially all of AIG's properties or assets; and

• requires the following proposals to be presented to AIG's shareholders at a special shareholders' meeting or at a future annual shareholders' meeting following notice from the Trust:

• to amend AIG's Restated Certificate of Incorporation to decrease the par value of AIG's common stock, increase the authorized number of shares of common stock and, if these amendments are not approved;

• to amend the terms of AIG's Restated Certificate of Incorporation to decrease the par value of AIG's serial preferred stock and increase the number of authorized shares of AIG's serial preferred stock, and amend the terms of the Series C Preferred Stock to increase the number of shares of Series C Preferred Stock so that each share of Series C Preferred Stock would be convertible into common stock on approximately a one-to-one basis.

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The Series C Preferred Stock is not redeemable by AIG and, upon the effectiveness of the required amendments to AIG's Restated Certificate of Incorporation, will be convertible into common stock. From issuance, the Series C Preferred Stock will, to the extent permitted by law, vote with the common stock as a single class and represent approximately 77.9 percent of the voting power of the common stock, treating the Series C Preferred Stock as converted. The Series C Preferred Stock will also participate in any dividends paid on the common stock, with approximately 77.9 percent of all dividends paid allocated to the Series C Preferred Stock, treating the Series C Preferred Stock as converted. Upon the liquidation, dissolution or winding up of AIG, the Series C Preferred Stock is entitled to a liquidation preference per share equal to the greater of (i) $5.00 and (ii) the amount that would be payable with respect to the shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of such share of Series C Preferred Stock. For additional information about the Series C Preferred Stock, see Note 15 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.

March 2009 Agreements in Principle

On March 2, 2009, AIG, the NY Fed and the United States Department of the Treasury announced agreements in principle to modify the terms of the Fed Credit Agreement and the Series D Preferred Stock and to provide a $30 billion equity capital commitment facility. The United States Government has issued the following statement referring to the agreements in principle and other transactions they expect to undertake with AIG intended to strengthen AIG's capital position, enhance its liquidity, reduce its borrowing costs and facilitate AIG's asset disposition program.

"The steps announced today provide tangible evidence of the U.S. government's commitment to the orderly restructuring of AIG over time in the face of continuing market dislocations and economic deterioration. Orderly restructuring is essential to AIG's repayment of the support it has received from U.S. taxpayers and to preserving financial stability. The U.S. government is committed to continuing to work with AIG to maintain its ability to meet its obligations as they come due."

See Note 23 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.

Modification to Series D Preferred Stock

On March 2, 2009, AIG and the United States Department of the Treasury announced their agreement in principle to enter into a transaction pursuant to which the United States Department of the Treasury would modify the terms of the Series D Preferred Stock. The modification will be effected by an exchange of 100 percent of the outstanding shares of Series D Preferred Stock for newly issued perpetual serial preferred stock (Series E Preferred Stock), with a liquidation preference equal to the issuance-date liquidation preference of the Series D Preferred Stock surrendered plus accumulated but unpaid dividends thereon. The terms of the Series E Preferred Stock will be the same as for the Series D Preferred Stock except that the dividends will not be cumulative. The Series D Preferred Stock bore cumulative dividends.

The dividend rate on both the cumulative Series D Preferred Stock and the non-cumulative Series E Preferred Stock is 10 percent per annum. Concurrent with the exchange of the shares of Series D Preferred Stock for the Series E Preferred Stock, AIG will enter into a replacement capital covenant in favor of the holders of a series of AIG debt, pursuant to which AIG will agree that prior to the third anniversary of the issuance of the Series E Preferred Stock AIG will not repay, redeem or purchase, and no subsidiary of AIG will purchase, all or any part of the Series E Preferred Stock except with the proceeds obtained from the issuance by AIG or any subsidiary of AIG of certain capital securities. AIG will make a statement of intent substantially similar to the replacement capital covenant with respect to subsequent years. The Series D Preferred Stock was not subject to a replacement capital covenant.

Equity Capital Commitment Facility

On March 2, 2009, AIG and the United States Department of the Treasury announced its agreement in principle to provide AIG with a 5-year equity capital commitment facility of $30 billion. AIG may use the facility to sell to the United States Department of the Treasury fixed-rate, non-cumulative perpetual serial preferred stock

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(Series F Preferred Stock). The facility will be available to AIG so long as AIG is not the debtor in a pending case under Title 11, United States Code, and the Trust (or any successor entity established for the benefit of the United States Treasury) "beneficially owns" more than 50 percent of the aggregate voting power of AIG's voting securities at the time of such drawdown.

The terms of the Series F Preferred Stock will be substantially similar to the Series E Preferred Stock, except that the Series F Preferred Stock will not be subject to a replacement capital covenant or the statement of intent.

In connection with the equity capital commitment facility, the United States Department of the Treasury will also receive warrants exercisable for a number of shares of common stock of AIG equal to 1 percent of AIG's then outstanding common stock and, upon issuance of the warrants, the dividends payable on, and the voting power of, the Series C Preferred Stock will be reduced by the number of shares subject to the warrant.

Repayment of Fed Facility with Subsidiary Preferred Equity

On March 2, 2009, AIG and the NY Fed announced their intent to enter into a transaction pursuant to which AIG will transfer to the NY Fed preferred equity interests in newly-formed special purpose vehicles (SPVs). Each SPV will have (directly or indirectly) as its only asset 100 percent of the common stock of an AIG operating subsidiary (AIA in one case and ALICO in the other). AIG expects to own the common interests of each SPV and will initially have the right to appoint the entire board of directors of each SPV. In exchange for the preferred equity interests received by the NY Fed, there would be a concurrent substantial reduction in the outstanding balance and maximum available amount to be borrowed on the Fed Facility.

Securitizations

On March 2, 2009, AIG and the NY Fed announced their intent to enter into a transaction pursuant to which AIG will issue to the NY Fed senior certificates in one or more newly-formed SPVs backed by inforce blocks of life insurance policies in settlement of a portion of the outstanding balance of the Fed Facility. The amount of the Fed Facility reduction will be based on the proceeds . . .

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