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| AFL > SEC Filings for AFL > Form 10-K on 20-Feb-2009 | All Recent SEC Filings |
20-Feb-2009
Annual Report
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor"
to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those
informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied
by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the
forward-looking statements. We desire to take advantage of these provisions.
This report contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that
could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and
in any other statements made by Company officials in communications with the
financial community and contained in documents filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on
historical information and relate to future operations, strategies, financial
results or other developments. Furthermore, forward-looking information is
subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties. In particular,
statements containing words such as "expect," "anticipate," "believe," "goal,"
"objective," "may," "should," "estimate," "intends," "projects," "will,"
"assumes," "potential," "target" or similar words as well as specific
projections of future results, generally qualify as forward-looking. Aflac
undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements.
We caution readers that the following factors, in addition to other factors
mentioned from time to time, could cause actual results to differ materially
from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements:
• difficult condition in global capital markets and the economy generally
• governmental actions for the purpose of stabilizing the financial markets
• defaults and downgrades in certain securities in our investment portfolio
• impairment of financial institutions
• credit and other risks associated with Aflac's investment in hybrid securities
• differing judgments applied to investment valuations
• subjective determinations of amount of impairments taken on our investments
• realization of unrealized losses
• limited availability of acceptable yen-denominated investments
• concentration of our investments in any particular sector
• concentration of business in Japan
• ongoing changes in our industry
• exposure to significant financial and capital markets risk
• fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates
• significant changes in investment yield rates
• deviations in actual experience from pricing and reserving assumptions
• subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to the Parent Company
• changes in regulation by governmental authorities
• ability to attract and retain qualified sales associates and employees
• ability to continue to develop and implement improvements in information technology systems
• changes in U.S. and/or Japanese accounting standards
• decreases in our financial strength or debt ratings
• level and outcome of litigation
• ability to effectively manage key executive succession
• catastrophic events
• failure of internal controls or corporate governance policies and procedures
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Aflac Incorporated (the Parent Company) and its subsidiaries (collectively,
the Company) primarily sell supplemental health and life insurance in the United
States and Japan. The Company's insurance business is marketed and administered
through American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus (Aflac), which
operates in the United States (Aflac U.S.) and as a branch in Japan (Aflac
Japan). Most of Aflac's policies are individually underwritten and marketed
through independent agents. Our insurance operations in the United States and
our branch in Japan service the two markets for our insurance business.
MD&A OVERVIEW
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of
Operations (MD&A) is intended to inform the reader about matters affecting the
financial condition and results of operations of Aflac Incorporated and its
subsidiaries for the three-year period ended December 31, 2008. As a result, the
following discussion should be read in conjunction with the related consolidated
financial statements and notes. This MD&A is divided into the following
sections:
• Critical accounting estimates
• Results of operations, consolidated and by segment
• Analysis of financial condition, including discussion of market risks of financial instruments
• Capital Resources and Liquidity, including discussion of availability of capital and the sources and uses of cash
whether a decline is other than temporary involve significant management
judgment and require evaluation of factors, including but not limited to:
• percentage decline in value and the length of time during which the decline
has occurred
• recoverability of principal and interest
• market conditions
• our ability to hold the investment to maturity
• review of the issuer's overall operating performance and financial condition
• rating agency opinions and actions regarding the issuer's credit standing
• adverse changes in the issuer's availability of production resources, revenue sources and technological conditions
• adverse changes in the issuer's economic, industry, regulatory or political environment
See Notes 1, 3 and 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for
additional information.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs and Policy Liabilities
Aflac's products are generally long-duration fixed-benefit indemnity
contracts. We make estimates of certain factors that affect the profitability of
our business to match expected policy benefits and deferrable acquisition costs
with expected policy premiums. These assumptions include persistency, morbidity,
mortality, investment yields and expenses. If actual results match the
assumptions used in establishing policy liabilities and the deferral and
amortization of acquisition costs, profits will emerge as a level percentage of
earned premiums. However, because actual results will vary from the assumptions,
profits as a percentage of earned premiums will vary from year to year.
We measure the adequacy of our policy reserves and recoverability of deferred
policy acquisition costs (DAC) annually by performing gross premium valuations
on our business. Our testing indicates that our insurance liabilities are
adequate and that our DAC is recoverable.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs
Certain costs of acquiring new business are deferred and amortized over the
policy's premium payment period in proportion to anticipated premium income.
Future amortization of DAC is based upon our estimates of persistency, interest
and future premium revenue generally established at the time of policy issuance.
However, the unamortized balance of DAC reflects actual persistency. As
presented in the following table, the ratio of unamortized DAC to annualized
premiums in force increased slightly for Aflac U.S. in 2008, compared with the
prior two years, as a result of the introduction of an accelerated commission
payment option for new associates and the refinement of our first-year
commission deferrals on certain products. The ratio of unamortized DAC to
annualized premiums in force has shown a slight upward trend for Aflac Japan for
the last three years. This trend is a result of a greater proportion of our
annualized premiums being under the alternative commission schedule, which pays
a higher commission on first-year premiums and lower commissions on renewal
premiums. This schedule is very popular with our new agents as it helps them
with cash flow for personal and business needs as they build their business.
While this has resulted in a higher unamortized DAC balance, the overall cost to
the company has been reduced.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Cost Ratios
Aflac Japan Aflac U.S.
(In millions) 2008 2007 2006 2008 2007 2006
Deferred policy
acquisition costs $ 5,644 $ 4,269 $ 3,857 $ 2,593 $ 2,385 $ 2,168
Annualized premiums in
force 12,761 9,860 9,094 4,789 4,510 4,101
Deferred policy
acquisition costs as a
percentage of
annualized premiums in
force 44.2 % 43.3 % 42.4 % 54.1 % 52.9 % 52.9 %
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Policy Liabilities
The following table provides details of policy liabilities by segment and in
total as of December 31.
Policy Liabilities
(In millions) 2008 2007
U.S. segment:
Future policy benefits $ 5,442 $ 4,958
Unpaid policy claims 933 856
Other policy liabilities 375 165
Total U.S. policy liabilities $ 6,750 $ 5,979
Japan segment:
Future policy benefits $ 53,866 $ 40,715
Unpaid policy claims 2,184 1,599
Other policy liabilities 3,416 2,380
Total Japan policy liabilities $ 59,466 $ 44,694
Consolidated:
Future policy benefits $ 59,310 $ 45,675
Unpaid policy claims 3,118 2,455
Other policy liabilities 3,791 2,546
Total consolidated policy liabilities $ 66,219 $ 50,676
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Our policy liabilities, which are determined in accordance with applicable
guidelines as defined under GAAP and Actuarial Standards of Practice, include
two primary components: future policy benefits and unpaid policy claims, which
accounted for 90% and 5% of total policy liabilities as of December 31, 2008,
respectively.
Future policy benefits provide for claims that will occur in the future and
are generally calculated as the present value of future expected benefits to be
incurred less the present value of future expected net benefit premiums. We
calculate future policy benefits based on assumptions of morbidity, mortality,
persistency and interest. These assumptions are generally established at the
time a policy is issued. The assumptions used in the calculations are closely
related to those used in developing the gross premiums for a policy. As required
by GAAP, we also include a provision for adverse deviation, which is intended to
accommodate adverse fluctuations in actual experience.
Unpaid policy claims include those claims that have been incurred and are in
the process of payment as well as an estimate of those claims that have been
incurred but have not yet been
reported to us. We compute unpaid policy claims on a non-discounted basis using
statistical analyses of historical claims payments, adjusted for current trends
and changed conditions. We update the assumptions underlying the estimate of
unpaid policy claims regularly and incorporate our historical experience as well
as other data that provides information regarding our outstanding liability.
Our insurance products provide fixed-benefit amounts per occurrence that are
not subject to medical-cost inflation. Furthermore, our business is widely
dispersed in both the United States and Japan. This geographic dispersion and
the nature of our benefit structure mitigate the risk of a significant
unexpected increase in claims payments due to epidemics and events of a
catastrophic nature. Claims incurred under Aflac's policies are generally
reported and paid in a relatively short time frame. The unpaid claims liability
is sensitive to morbidity assumptions, in particular, severity and frequency of
claims. Severity is the ultimate size of a claim, and frequency is the number of
claims incurred. Our claims experience is primarily related to the demographics
of our policyholders.
As a part of our established financial reporting and accounting practices and
controls, we perform actuarial reviews of our policyholder liabilities on an
ongoing basis and reflect the results of those reviews in our results of
operations and financial condition as required by GAAP.
Our fourth quarter 2007 review indicated that we needed to strengthen the
liability for two closed blocks of business, primarily due to
better-than-expected persistency. In Japan, we strengthened our future policy
benefits liability by $18 million for a closed block of dementia policies. In
the United States, we strengthened our future policy benefits liability by
$8 million for a closed block of small-face-amount life insurance coverage.
In 2007, our unpaid policy claims liability for prior years declined by
approximately $400 million. More than 70% of the release of our unpaid policy
claims liability resulted from incurred but not reported claims that are
estimated using a claim cost and completion factor method. During the first
12 months after a claim is incurred, we estimate the ultimate cost of the claim
based on initial expected claim cost factors that reflect our experience in
prior periods. In the 13th month after incurral, we change the estimating basis
to a completion factor method because the actual cash payments to date for
claims 13 or more months old are deemed to have sufficient credibility on which
to base the remaining liability estimate. Prior to the 13th month, the
historical claim cost method is deemed to have more credibility. The difference
in estimate between the two methods is routinely recognized in our financial
statements in the 13th month after a claim is incurred.
For the past several years, we have experienced a downward trend in our
current period hospitalization claim costs, primarily in Japan. For this reason,
our claim cost estimate as of December 31, 2006, was high. Redundancy or
insufficiency is initially recognized when the claims reach the thirteenth month
after incurral. More than 75% of the 2007 release of prior period claim
liability was related to claims incurred in 2006. The remainder was related to
claims incurred prior to 2006.
In computing the estimate of unpaid policy claims, we consider many factors,
including the benefits and amounts available under the policy; the volume and
demographics of the policies exposed to claims; and internal business practices,
such as incurred date assignment and current claim administrative practices. We
monitor these conditions closely and make adjustments to the liability as actual
experience emerges. Claim levels are generally stable from period to period;
however, fluctuations in claim levels may occur. In calculating the unpaid
policy claim liability, we do not
calculate a range of estimates. The following table shows the expected
sensitivity of the unpaid policy claims liability as of December 31, 2008, to
changes in severity and frequency of claims. For the years 2006 through 2008,
our assumptions changed on average by approximately 1% in total, and we believe
that a variation in assumptions in a range of plus or minus 1% in total is
reasonably likely to occur.
Sensitivity of Unpaid Policy Claims Liability
(In millions) Total Severity
Decrease Decrease Increase Increase
Total Frequency by 2% by 1% Unchanged by 1% by 2%
Increase by 2% $ - $ 19 $ 39 $ 59 $ 79
Increase by 1% (19 ) - 20 39 59
Unchanged (38 ) (19 ) - 20 39
Decrease by 1% (57 ) (38 ) (19 ) - 19
Decrease by 2% (76 ) (57 ) (38 ) (19 ) -
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The table below reflects the growth of future policy benefits liability for
the years ended December 31.
Future Policy Benefits
(In millions of dollars and billions of yen) 2008 2007 2006
Aflac U.S. $ 5,442 $ 4,958 $ 4,391
Growth rate 9.8 % 12.9 % 16.2 %
Aflac Japan $ 53,866 $ 40,715 $ 36,447
Growth rate 32.3 % 11.7 % 7.0 %
Consolidated $ 59,310 $ 45,675 $ 40,841
Growth rate 29.9 % 11.8 % 7.9 %
Yen/dollar exchange rate (end of period) 91.03 114.15 119.11
Aflac Japan (in yen) 4,903 4,648 4,341
Growth rate 5.5 % 7.1 % 7.9 %
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The growth of the future policy benefits liability in dollars is primarily
due to the aging of our in-force block of business and the addition of new
business, as well as the strengthening of the yen against the U.S. dollar.
New Accounting Pronouncements
During the last three years, various accounting standard-setting bodies have
been active in soliciting comments and issuing statements, interpretations and
exposure drafts. For information on new accounting pronouncements and the
impact, if any, on our financial position or results of operations, see Note 1
of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Items Impacting Net Earnings
In Millions Per Diluted Share
2008 2007 2006 2008 2007 2006
Net earnings $ 1,254 $ 1,634 $ 1,483 $ 2.62 $ 3.31 $ 2.95
Items impacting net
earnings, net of tax:
Realized investment
gains (losses) (655 ) 19 51 (1.37 ) .04 .10
Impact from SFAS 133 (3 ) 2 - - - -
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Realized Investment Gains and Losses
Our investment strategy is to invest in investment-grade fixed-income
securities to provide a reliable stream of investment income, which is one of
the drivers of the Company's profitability. This investment strategy aligns our
assets with our liability structure, which our assets support. We do not
purchase securities with the intent of generating capital gains or losses.
However, investment gains and losses may be realized as a result of changes in
the financial markets and the creditworthiness of specific issuers, tax planning
strategies, and/or general portfolio maintenance and rebalancing. The
realization of investment gains and losses is independent of the underwriting
and administration of our insurance products, which are the principal drivers of
our profitability.
In 2008, we realized total pretax investment losses of $1,007 million
(after-tax, $655 million, or $1.37 per diluted share), primarily a result of the
sale of securities and the recognition of other-than-temporary impairments. The
sale of our investments in Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual and other
smaller securities transactions represented $254 million ($166 million
after-tax) of the total realized investment losses. Other-than-temporary
impairment losses during the year consisted of $294 million ($191 million
after-tax) recognized on certain of our perpetual security investments;
$213 million ($139 million after-tax) recognized on certain of our CDO
investments; $180 million ($117 million after-tax) recognized on our investments
in three Icelandic banks; and $65 million ($42 million after-tax) recognized on
our investment in Ford Motor Company. See further discussion below regarding the
other-than-temporary impairment losses on our perpetual securities, CDO
investments and Icelandic bank investments.
In 2007, we realized pretax investment gains of $28 million (after-tax,
$19 million, or $.04 per diluted share) primarily as a result of securities sold
or redeemed in the normal course of business. In 2006, we realized pretax gains
of $79 million (after-tax, $51 million, or $.10 per diluted share) primarily as
a result of bond swaps and the liquidation of equity securities held by Aflac
U.S. We began a bond-swap program in the second half of 2005 and concluded it in
the first half of 2006. These bond swaps took advantage of tax loss
carryforwards and also resulted in an improvement in overall portfolio credit
quality and investment income.
We maintain investments in subordinated financial instruments, or so-called
"hybrid securities." Within this class of investments, we own perpetual Upper
Tier II and Tier I securities, which are subordinated to other debt obligations
of the issuer, but rank higher than the issuers' equity securities. Perpetual
securities have characteristics of
both debt and equity investments. Although these securities generally have no
contractual maturity date, they have stated interest coupons that were fixed at
their issuance and subsequently change to a floating short-term rate of interest
of 125 to more than 300 basis points above an appropriate market index,
generally by the 25th year after issuance. We believe this interest step-up
penalty has the effect of creating an economic maturity date of the perpetual
securities. Since first purchasing these securities in the early 1990's, and
until the third quarter of 2008, we accounted for and reported perpetual
securities as debt securities and classified them as both available-for-sale and
held-to-maturity securities.
In light of the unprecedented volatility in the debt and equity markets, we
concluded in the third quarter of 2008 that all of our perpetual securities
should be classified as available-for-sale securities for periods ending
June 30, 2008 and prior. We also concluded that our perpetual securities should
be evaluated for other-than-temporary impairments using an equity security
impairment model as opposed to our previous policy of using a debt security
impairment model.
In the third quarter of 2008, we recognized an other-than-temporary
impairment charge of $191 million, after-tax, which reflects the impact of
applying our equity security impairment policy to this asset class through
June 30, 2008. The June 30 measurement date was used following the SEC's
October 14, 2008 letter to the FASB on the topic of the appropriate impairment
model to apply to perpetual securities. Included in this impairment charge is
$40 million, $53 million, $50 million, and $38 million, net of tax, that relate
to the years ended December 31, 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively; and,
$10 million, net of tax, that relates to the quarter ended June 30, 2008. There
were no impairment charges related to perpetual securities in the first quarter
of 2008. The impact of classifying all of our perpetual securities as
available-for-sale securities and assessing them for other-than-temporary
impairments under our equity security impairment model through June 30, 2008,
was determined to be immaterial to our results of operations and financial
position for any previously reported period.
In a letter to the FASB dated October 14, 2008, the SEC stated that, given
the debt characteristics of perpetual securities, a debt impairment model could
be used for filings subsequent to its letter, until the FASB further addresses
the appropriate impairment approach. Consistent with the guidance in the SEC's
letter, we have applied a debt security impairment model to our perpetual
securities subsequent to the quarter ended June 30, 2008, and will continue with
that approach pending further guidance from the FASB.
As of December 31, 2008, approximately 92% of our perpetual securities
portfolio was rated A or better, and the fair value of our perpetual security
portfolio was approximately 89% and 84% of amortized cost and par value,
respectively.
As a part of our credit review process, we concluded that it had become
unlikely that we would recover our investment in certain of our CDO investments
as a result of continued significant declines in the credit markets during the
fourth quarter of 2008. In accordance with our investment policy, we recorded an
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