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AFL > SEC Filings for AFL > Form 10-K on 20-Feb-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-K for AFLAC INC


20-Feb-2009

Annual Report


Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. We desire to take advantage of these provisions. This report contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and in any other statements made by Company officials in communications with the financial community and contained in documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on historical information and relate to future operations, strategies, financial results or other developments. Furthermore, forward-looking information is subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties. In particular, statements containing words such as "expect," "anticipate," "believe," "goal," "objective," "may," "should," "estimate," "intends," "projects," "will," "assumes," "potential," "target" or similar words as well as specific projections of future results, generally qualify as forward-looking. Aflac undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements.
We caution readers that the following factors, in addition to other factors mentioned from time to time, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements:
• difficult condition in global capital markets and the economy generally

• governmental actions for the purpose of stabilizing the financial markets

• defaults and downgrades in certain securities in our investment portfolio

• impairment of financial institutions

• credit and other risks associated with Aflac's investment in hybrid securities

• differing judgments applied to investment valuations

• subjective determinations of amount of impairments taken on our investments

• realization of unrealized losses

• limited availability of acceptable yen-denominated investments

• concentration of our investments in any particular sector

• concentration of business in Japan

• ongoing changes in our industry

• exposure to significant financial and capital markets risk

• fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates

• significant changes in investment yield rates

• deviations in actual experience from pricing and reserving assumptions

• subsidiaries' ability to pay dividends to the Parent Company

• changes in regulation by governmental authorities

• ability to attract and retain qualified sales associates and employees

• ability to continue to develop and implement improvements in information technology systems

• changes in U.S. and/or Japanese accounting standards

• decreases in our financial strength or debt ratings

• level and outcome of litigation

• ability to effectively manage key executive succession

• catastrophic events

• failure of internal controls or corporate governance policies and procedures


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COMPANY OVERVIEW
Aflac Incorporated (the Parent Company) and its subsidiaries (collectively, the Company) primarily sell supplemental health and life insurance in the United States and Japan. The Company's insurance business is marketed and administered through American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus (Aflac), which operates in the United States (Aflac U.S.) and as a branch in Japan (Aflac Japan). Most of Aflac's policies are individually underwritten and marketed through independent agents. Our insurance operations in the United States and our branch in Japan service the two markets for our insurance business.
MD&A OVERVIEW
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A) is intended to inform the reader about matters affecting the financial condition and results of operations of Aflac Incorporated and its subsidiaries for the three-year period ended December 31, 2008. As a result, the following discussion should be read in conjunction with the related consolidated financial statements and notes. This MD&A is divided into the following sections:
• Critical accounting estimates

• Results of operations, consolidated and by segment

• Analysis of financial condition, including discussion of market risks of financial instruments

• Capital Resources and Liquidity, including discussion of availability of capital and the sources and uses of cash

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
We prepare our financial statements in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates based on currently available information when recording transactions resulting from business operations. The estimates that we deem to be most critical to an understanding of Aflac's results of operations and financial condition are those related to investments, deferred policy acquisition costs and policy liabilities. The preparation and evaluation of these critical accounting estimates involve the use of various assumptions developed from management's analyses and judgments. The application of these critical accounting estimates determines the values at which 96% of our assets and 86% of our liabilities are reported as of December 31, 2008, and thus has a direct effect on net earnings and shareholders' equity. Subsequent experience or use of other assumptions could produce significantly different results.
Investments
Aflac's investments in debt securities, perpetual securities and equity securities include both publicly issued and privately issued securities. For privately issued securities, we receive pricing data from external sources that take into account each security's credit quality and liquidity characteristics. We also routinely review our investments that have experienced declines in fair value to determine if the decline is other than temporary. These reviews are performed with consideration of the facts and circumstances of an issuer in accordance with applicable accounting guidance. The identification of distressed investments, the determination of fair value if not publicly traded, and the assessment of


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whether a decline is other than temporary involve significant management judgment and require evaluation of factors, including but not limited to:
• percentage decline in value and the length of time during which the decline has occurred

• recoverability of principal and interest

• market conditions

• our ability to hold the investment to maturity

• review of the issuer's overall operating performance and financial condition

• rating agency opinions and actions regarding the issuer's credit standing

• adverse changes in the issuer's availability of production resources, revenue sources and technological conditions

• adverse changes in the issuer's economic, industry, regulatory or political environment

See Notes 1, 3 and 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs and Policy Liabilities Aflac's products are generally long-duration fixed-benefit indemnity contracts. We make estimates of certain factors that affect the profitability of our business to match expected policy benefits and deferrable acquisition costs with expected policy premiums. These assumptions include persistency, morbidity, mortality, investment yields and expenses. If actual results match the assumptions used in establishing policy liabilities and the deferral and amortization of acquisition costs, profits will emerge as a level percentage of earned premiums. However, because actual results will vary from the assumptions, profits as a percentage of earned premiums will vary from year to year.
We measure the adequacy of our policy reserves and recoverability of deferred policy acquisition costs (DAC) annually by performing gross premium valuations on our business. Our testing indicates that our insurance liabilities are adequate and that our DAC is recoverable. Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs
Certain costs of acquiring new business are deferred and amortized over the policy's premium payment period in proportion to anticipated premium income. Future amortization of DAC is based upon our estimates of persistency, interest and future premium revenue generally established at the time of policy issuance. However, the unamortized balance of DAC reflects actual persistency. As presented in the following table, the ratio of unamortized DAC to annualized premiums in force increased slightly for Aflac U.S. in 2008, compared with the prior two years, as a result of the introduction of an accelerated commission payment option for new associates and the refinement of our first-year commission deferrals on certain products. The ratio of unamortized DAC to annualized premiums in force has shown a slight upward trend for Aflac Japan for the last three years. This trend is a result of a greater proportion of our annualized premiums being under the alternative commission schedule, which pays a higher commission on first-year premiums and lower commissions on renewal premiums. This schedule is very popular with our new agents as it helps them with cash flow for personal and business needs as they build their business. While this has resulted in a higher unamortized DAC balance, the overall cost to the company has been reduced.


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                    Deferred Policy Acquisition Cost Ratios

                                             Aflac Japan                                         Aflac U.S.
(In millions)                   2008             2007             2006             2008             2007             2006

Deferred policy
acquisition costs            $  5,644          $ 4,269          $ 3,857          $ 2,593          $ 2,385          $ 2,168
Annualized premiums in
force                          12,761            9,860            9,094            4,789            4,510            4,101
Deferred policy
acquisition costs as a
percentage of
annualized premiums in
force                            44.2 %           43.3 %           42.4 %           54.1 %           52.9 %           52.9 %

Policy Liabilities
   The following table provides details of policy liabilities by segment and in
total as of December 31.
                               Policy Liabilities

            (In millions)                              2008         2007

            U.S. segment:
            Future policy benefits                  $  5,442     $  4,958
            Unpaid policy claims                         933          856
            Other policy liabilities                     375          165

            Total U.S. policy liabilities           $  6,750     $  5,979

            Japan segment:
            Future policy benefits                  $ 53,866     $ 40,715
            Unpaid policy claims                       2,184        1,599
            Other policy liabilities                   3,416        2,380

            Total Japan policy liabilities          $ 59,466     $ 44,694

            Consolidated:
            Future policy benefits                  $ 59,310     $ 45,675
            Unpaid policy claims                       3,118        2,455
            Other policy liabilities                   3,791        2,546

            Total consolidated policy liabilities   $ 66,219     $ 50,676

Our policy liabilities, which are determined in accordance with applicable guidelines as defined under GAAP and Actuarial Standards of Practice, include two primary components: future policy benefits and unpaid policy claims, which accounted for 90% and 5% of total policy liabilities as of December 31, 2008, respectively.
Future policy benefits provide for claims that will occur in the future and are generally calculated as the present value of future expected benefits to be incurred less the present value of future expected net benefit premiums. We calculate future policy benefits based on assumptions of morbidity, mortality, persistency and interest. These assumptions are generally established at the time a policy is issued. The assumptions used in the calculations are closely related to those used in developing the gross premiums for a policy. As required by GAAP, we also include a provision for adverse deviation, which is intended to accommodate adverse fluctuations in actual experience.
Unpaid policy claims include those claims that have been incurred and are in the process of payment as well as an estimate of those claims that have been incurred but have not yet been


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reported to us. We compute unpaid policy claims on a non-discounted basis using statistical analyses of historical claims payments, adjusted for current trends and changed conditions. We update the assumptions underlying the estimate of unpaid policy claims regularly and incorporate our historical experience as well as other data that provides information regarding our outstanding liability.
Our insurance products provide fixed-benefit amounts per occurrence that are not subject to medical-cost inflation. Furthermore, our business is widely dispersed in both the United States and Japan. This geographic dispersion and the nature of our benefit structure mitigate the risk of a significant unexpected increase in claims payments due to epidemics and events of a catastrophic nature. Claims incurred under Aflac's policies are generally reported and paid in a relatively short time frame. The unpaid claims liability is sensitive to morbidity assumptions, in particular, severity and frequency of claims. Severity is the ultimate size of a claim, and frequency is the number of claims incurred. Our claims experience is primarily related to the demographics of our policyholders.
As a part of our established financial reporting and accounting practices and controls, we perform actuarial reviews of our policyholder liabilities on an ongoing basis and reflect the results of those reviews in our results of operations and financial condition as required by GAAP.
Our fourth quarter 2007 review indicated that we needed to strengthen the liability for two closed blocks of business, primarily due to better-than-expected persistency. In Japan, we strengthened our future policy benefits liability by $18 million for a closed block of dementia policies. In the United States, we strengthened our future policy benefits liability by $8 million for a closed block of small-face-amount life insurance coverage.
In 2007, our unpaid policy claims liability for prior years declined by approximately $400 million. More than 70% of the release of our unpaid policy claims liability resulted from incurred but not reported claims that are estimated using a claim cost and completion factor method. During the first 12 months after a claim is incurred, we estimate the ultimate cost of the claim based on initial expected claim cost factors that reflect our experience in prior periods. In the 13th month after incurral, we change the estimating basis to a completion factor method because the actual cash payments to date for claims 13 or more months old are deemed to have sufficient credibility on which to base the remaining liability estimate. Prior to the 13th month, the historical claim cost method is deemed to have more credibility. The difference in estimate between the two methods is routinely recognized in our financial statements in the 13th month after a claim is incurred.
For the past several years, we have experienced a downward trend in our current period hospitalization claim costs, primarily in Japan. For this reason, our claim cost estimate as of December 31, 2006, was high. Redundancy or insufficiency is initially recognized when the claims reach the thirteenth month after incurral. More than 75% of the 2007 release of prior period claim liability was related to claims incurred in 2006. The remainder was related to claims incurred prior to 2006.
In computing the estimate of unpaid policy claims, we consider many factors, including the benefits and amounts available under the policy; the volume and demographics of the policies exposed to claims; and internal business practices, such as incurred date assignment and current claim administrative practices. We monitor these conditions closely and make adjustments to the liability as actual experience emerges. Claim levels are generally stable from period to period; however, fluctuations in claim levels may occur. In calculating the unpaid policy claim liability, we do not


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calculate a range of estimates. The following table shows the expected sensitivity of the unpaid policy claims liability as of December 31, 2008, to changes in severity and frequency of claims. For the years 2006 through 2008, our assumptions changed on average by approximately 1% in total, and we believe that a variation in assumptions in a range of plus or minus 1% in total is reasonably likely to occur.
Sensitivity of Unpaid Policy Claims Liability

         (In millions)                             Total Severity
                            Decrease     Decrease                   Increase     Increase
         Total Frequency     by 2%        by 1%       Unchanged      by 1%        by 2%

         Increase by 2%     $     -      $    19      $     39      $    59      $   79
         Increase by 1%         (19 )          -            20           39          59
         Unchanged              (38 )        (19 )           -           20          39
         Decrease by 1%         (57 )        (38 )         (19 )          -          19
         Decrease by 2%         (76 )        (57 )         (38 )        (19 )         -

The table below reflects the growth of future policy benefits liability for the years ended December 31.

                             Future Policy Benefits

    (In millions of dollars and billions of yen)      2008         2007         2006

    Aflac U.S.                                     $  5,442     $  4,958     $  4,391
    Growth rate                                         9.8 %       12.9 %       16.2 %

    Aflac Japan                                    $ 53,866     $ 40,715     $ 36,447
    Growth rate                                        32.3 %       11.7 %        7.0 %

    Consolidated                                   $ 59,310     $ 45,675     $ 40,841
    Growth rate                                        29.9 %       11.8 %        7.9 %

    Yen/dollar exchange rate (end of period)          91.03       114.15       119.11

    Aflac Japan (in yen)                              4,903        4,648        4,341
    Growth rate                                         5.5 %        7.1 %        7.9 %

The growth of the future policy benefits liability in dollars is primarily due to the aging of our in-force block of business and the addition of new business, as well as the strengthening of the yen against the U.S. dollar. New Accounting Pronouncements
During the last three years, various accounting standard-setting bodies have been active in soliciting comments and issuing statements, interpretations and exposure drafts. For information on new accounting pronouncements and the impact, if any, on our financial position or results of operations, see Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.


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RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following table is a presentation of items impacting net earnings and net earnings per diluted share for the years ended December 31.
                          Items Impacting Net Earnings

                                             In Millions                                    Per Diluted Share
                               2008             2007             2006             2008             2007            2006

Net earnings                 $ 1,254          $ 1,634          $ 1,483          $  2.62          $ 3.31          $ 2.95
Items impacting net
earnings, net of tax:
Realized investment
gains (losses)                  (655 )             19               51            (1.37 )           .04             .10
Impact from SFAS 133              (3 )              2                -                -               -               -

Realized Investment Gains and Losses
Our investment strategy is to invest in investment-grade fixed-income securities to provide a reliable stream of investment income, which is one of the drivers of the Company's profitability. This investment strategy aligns our assets with our liability structure, which our assets support. We do not purchase securities with the intent of generating capital gains or losses. However, investment gains and losses may be realized as a result of changes in the financial markets and the creditworthiness of specific issuers, tax planning strategies, and/or general portfolio maintenance and rebalancing. The realization of investment gains and losses is independent of the underwriting and administration of our insurance products, which are the principal drivers of our profitability.
In 2008, we realized total pretax investment losses of $1,007 million (after-tax, $655 million, or $1.37 per diluted share), primarily a result of the sale of securities and the recognition of other-than-temporary impairments. The sale of our investments in Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual and other smaller securities transactions represented $254 million ($166 million after-tax) of the total realized investment losses. Other-than-temporary impairment losses during the year consisted of $294 million ($191 million after-tax) recognized on certain of our perpetual security investments; $213 million ($139 million after-tax) recognized on certain of our CDO investments; $180 million ($117 million after-tax) recognized on our investments in three Icelandic banks; and $65 million ($42 million after-tax) recognized on our investment in Ford Motor Company. See further discussion below regarding the other-than-temporary impairment losses on our perpetual securities, CDO investments and Icelandic bank investments.
In 2007, we realized pretax investment gains of $28 million (after-tax, $19 million, or $.04 per diluted share) primarily as a result of securities sold or redeemed in the normal course of business. In 2006, we realized pretax gains of $79 million (after-tax, $51 million, or $.10 per diluted share) primarily as a result of bond swaps and the liquidation of equity securities held by Aflac U.S. We began a bond-swap program in the second half of 2005 and concluded it in the first half of 2006. These bond swaps took advantage of tax loss carryforwards and also resulted in an improvement in overall portfolio credit quality and investment income.
We maintain investments in subordinated financial instruments, or so-called "hybrid securities." Within this class of investments, we own perpetual Upper Tier II and Tier I securities, which are subordinated to other debt obligations of the issuer, but rank higher than the issuers' equity securities. Perpetual securities have characteristics of


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both debt and equity investments. Although these securities generally have no contractual maturity date, they have stated interest coupons that were fixed at their issuance and subsequently change to a floating short-term rate of interest of 125 to more than 300 basis points above an appropriate market index, generally by the 25th year after issuance. We believe this interest step-up penalty has the effect of creating an economic maturity date of the perpetual securities. Since first purchasing these securities in the early 1990's, and until the third quarter of 2008, we accounted for and reported perpetual securities as debt securities and classified them as both available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities.
In light of the unprecedented volatility in the debt and equity markets, we concluded in the third quarter of 2008 that all of our perpetual securities should be classified as available-for-sale securities for periods ending June 30, 2008 and prior. We also concluded that our perpetual securities should be evaluated for other-than-temporary impairments using an equity security impairment model as opposed to our previous policy of using a debt security impairment model.
In the third quarter of 2008, we recognized an other-than-temporary impairment charge of $191 million, after-tax, which reflects the impact of applying our equity security impairment policy to this asset class through June 30, 2008. The June 30 measurement date was used following the SEC's October 14, 2008 letter to the FASB on the topic of the appropriate impairment model to apply to perpetual securities. Included in this impairment charge is $40 million, $53 million, $50 million, and $38 million, net of tax, that relate to the years ended December 31, 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively; and, $10 million, net of tax, that relates to the quarter ended June 30, 2008. There were no impairment charges related to perpetual securities in the first quarter of 2008. The impact of classifying all of our perpetual securities as available-for-sale securities and assessing them for other-than-temporary impairments under our equity security impairment model through June 30, 2008, was determined to be immaterial to our results of operations and financial position for any previously reported period.
In a letter to the FASB dated October 14, 2008, the SEC stated that, given the debt characteristics of perpetual securities, a debt impairment model could be used for filings subsequent to its letter, until the FASB further addresses the appropriate impairment approach. Consistent with the guidance in the SEC's letter, we have applied a debt security impairment model to our perpetual securities subsequent to the quarter ended June 30, 2008, and will continue with that approach pending further guidance from the FASB.
As of December 31, 2008, approximately 92% of our perpetual securities portfolio was rated A or better, and the fair value of our perpetual security portfolio was approximately 89% and 84% of amortized cost and par value, respectively.
As a part of our credit review process, we concluded that it had become unlikely that we would recover our investment in certain of our CDO investments as a result of continued significant declines in the credit markets during the fourth quarter of 2008. In accordance with our investment policy, we recorded an . . .

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