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UTR > SEC Filings for UTR > Form 10-K on 4-Feb-2009All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-K for UNITRIN INC


4-Feb-2009

Annual Report


Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

                                    Index to

                    Management's Discussion and Analysis of

                 Financial Condition and Results of Operations



Letter to Shareholders                                                Incorporated
                                                                      by reference
                                                                     to Exhibit 13
  Summary of Results                                                            30
  Critical Accounting Estimates                                                 30
  Catastrophes                                                                  40
  Kemper                                                                        42
  Unitrin Specialty                                                             46
  Unitrin Direct                                                                49
  Life and Health Insurance                                                     52
  Fireside Bank                                                                 56
  Investment Results                                                            59
  Investment Quality and Concentrations                                         62
  Securities Lending, Credit Default Swaps and Hedging
Activities                                                                      67
  Distressed and Mezzanine Debt and Secondary Transactions
Investments                                                                     68
  Interest and Other Expenses                                                   68
  Income Taxes                                                                  69
  Liquidity and Capital Resources                                               69
  Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements                                                73
  Contractual Obligations                                                       74
  Accounting Changes                                                            75


Table of Contents

Unitrin, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

Net Loss was $29.6 million ($0.47 per common share) for the year ended December 31, 2008, compared to Net Income of $205.4 million ($3.13 per common share) for the year ended December 31, 2007. Net Loss from Continuing Operations was $38.0 million ($0.60 per common share) in 2008, compared to Net Income from Continuing Operations of $178.1 million ($2.71 per common share) for same period in 2007. As discussed throughout this MD&A results from continuing operations decreased for the year ended December 31, 2008 due primarily to lower operating results in the aggregate, including higher catastrophe losses, lower Net Investment Income and higher losses arising from other than temporary declines in fair value of investments and realized investment losses from sales of stocks of financial institutions. Catastrophe losses from continuing operations were $144.9 million before tax for the year ended December 31, 2008, compared to $39.4 million for the same period in 2007. The Company reported Income from Discontinued Operations of $8.4 million and $27.3 million for the years ended December 31, 2008 and 2007, respectively.

Earned Premiums were $2,376.6 million in 2008, compared to $2,286.9 million in 2007. Earned premium increased primarily in the Unitrin Specialty and Unitrin Direct segments and to a lesser extent the Life and Health Insurance and Kemper segments.

Automobile Finance Revenues decreased by $17.9 million in 2008, compared to 2007, due to both a lower level of loans outstanding and lower interest rates.

Net Investment Income decreased by $77.0 million in 2008 due primarily to lower net investment income from certain investments in limited liability investment companies and limited partnerships, lower short-term investment income and lower dividend income from the Company's investment in Northrop, partially offset by higher net investment income from acquired businesses.

Net Realized Investment Gains (Losses), which are reported in the Statement of Operations, was a loss of $93.7 million in 2008, compared to a gain of $62.5 million in 2007. Net Realized Gains (Losses) for the years ended December 31, 2008 and 2007, include pretax losses of $152.9 million and $33.0 million, respectively, from other than temporary declines in the fair values of investments.

Other Comprehensive Investment Gains (Losses), which are not reported in the Statement of Operations, but rather are reported in the Statement of Comprehensive Income (Loss), was a loss of $595.6 million in 2008, compared to a gain of $69.2 million in 2007. The net comprehensive investment loss for the year ended December 31, 2008 was due primarily to a $281.3 million decline in the value of the Company's investment in Northrop stock and the general decline in value of most of the Company's investments in fixed maturities and equity securities due to the overall decline in the economy and stock market in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Company's investments in the financial sector declined in value over $125 million for the year ended December 31, 2008.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

Unitrin's subsidiaries conduct their businesses in three industries: property and casualty insurance, life and health insurance and automobile finance. Accordingly, the Company is subject to several industry-specific accounting principles under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP"). The preparation of financial statements in accordance with GAAP requires the use of estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. The process of estimation is inherently uncertain. Accordingly, actual results could ultimately differ materially from the estimated amounts reported in a company's financial statements. Different assumptions are likely to result in


Table of Contents

Unitrin, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-(Continued)

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES (Continued)

different estimates of reported amounts. The Company's critical accounting policies most sensitive to estimates include the valuation of investments, the valuation of property and casualty insurance reserves for losses and LAE, the valuation of the reserve for loan losses, the assessment of recoverability of goodwill and the valuation of pension benefit obligations.

Valuation of Investments

Except for the Company's investments accounted for under the equity method of accounting, and certain mutual funds classified as trading securities, the Company's investments in fixed maturities, preferred stocks and common stocks are classified as available for sale and are reported at fair value determined in accordance with SFAS No. 157, Fair Value Measurements. The Company has no investments for which it has elected to account for under the fair value option prescribed by SFAS No. 159, The Fair Value Option for Financial Assets and Liabilities Including an amendment of FASB Statement No. 115.

Except for investments accounted for under the equity method of accounting or under the fair value option of SFAS No. 159, under the provisions of GAAP a company is generally required to classify its investments in fixed maturities, preferred stocks and common stocks into one of the following three investment categories based on the its intent with respect to a particular investment at the time of acquisition:

a) Trading;

b) Held to maturity; or

c) Available for sale.

The classification of the investment may affect a company's reported results. For investments classified as trading or for which a company elects the fair value option, a company is required to recognize changes in the fair values into income for the period reported. For investments in fixed maturities classified as held to maturity, a company is required to carry the investment at amortized cost, with only the amortization occurring during the period recognized into income. Changes in the fair value of investments classified as available for sale are not recognized to income during the period, but rather are recognized as a separate component of equity until realized. Investments accounted for under the equity method of accounting are valued at cost plus cumulative undistributed earnings and not at fair value. Had the Company reported all the changes in the fair values of its investments in fixed maturities, preferred stock and common stock, including its investment in Intermec, and other equity securities into income, the Company's reported net income for the year ended December 31, 2008, would have decreased by $448.2 million.

The Company regularly reviews its investments for factors that may indicate that a decline in the fair value of an investment below its cost or amortized cost is other than temporary. Some factors considered in evaluating whether or not a decline in fair value is other than temporary include:

a) The Company's ability and intent to retain the investment for a period of time sufficient to allow for a recovery in value;

b) The duration and extent to which the fair value has been less than cost; and

c) The financial condition and prospects of the issuer.

Such reviews are inherently uncertain in that the value of the investment may not fully recover or may decline further in future periods resulting in realized losses.


Table of Contents

Unitrin, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-(Continued)

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES (Continued)

Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses

The Company's Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves are reported using the Company's estimate of its ultimate liability for losses and LAE for claims that occurred prior to the end of any given accounting period but have not yet been paid. The Company had $1,268.7 million and $1,322.9 million of gross loss and LAE reserves at December 31, 2008 and 2007, respectively. Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves for the Company's business segments at December 31, 2008 and 2007 were:

        Dollars in Millions                                2008        2007
        Business Segments:
        Kemper                                           $   476.1   $   502.4
        Unitrin Specialty                                    293.1       278.6
        Unitrin Direct                                       163.1       142.6
        Life and Health Insurance                             23.0        11.4

        Total Business Segments                              955.3       935.0
        Discontinued Operations                              280.0       342.2
        Unallocated Ceded Reserves                            33.4        45.7

        Total Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves   $ 1,268.7   $ 1,322.9

The Unallocated Ceded Reserves were acquired in connection with a business acquisition from SCOR in 2002 and are reinsured by an insurance subsidiary of SCOR (see Note 8, "Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves," to the Consolidated Financial Statements). The Company does not allocate these reserves to its business segments or Unitrin Business Insurance.

In estimating the Company's Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves, the Company's actuaries exercise professional judgment and must consider, and are influenced by, many variables that are difficult to quantify. Accordingly, the process of estimating and establishing the Company's Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves is inherently uncertain and the actual ultimate net cost of claims may vary materially from the estimated amounts reserved. The reserving process is particularly imprecise for claims involving asbestos, environmental matters, construction defect and other emerging and/or long-tailed exposures which may not be discovered or reported until years after the insurance policy period has ended.

The Company's actuaries generally estimate reserves at least quarterly for most product lines and/or coverage levels using accident quarters or accident months spanning 10 or more years depending on the size of the product line and/or coverage level or emerging issues relating to them. The Company's actuaries use a variety of generally accepted actuarial loss reserving estimation methodologies including, but not limited to, the following:

• Incurred Loss Development Methodology;

• Paid Loss Development Methodology;

• Bornhuetter-Ferguson Incurred Loss Methodology;

• Bornhuetter-Ferguson Paid Loss Methodology; and

• Frequency and Severity Methodology.

The Company's actuaries generally review the results of at least four of these estimation methodologies, two based on paid data and two based on incurred data, to initially estimate loss and LAE reserves and to determine if a change in prior estimates is required. In some cases, the methodologies produce a cluster of estimates with a tight band of indicated possible outcomes. In other cases, however, the methodologies produce conflicting results


Table of Contents

Unitrin, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-(Continued)

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES (Continued)

and wider bands of indicated possible outcomes. However, such bands do not necessarily constitute a range of outcomes, nor does the Company's management or the Company's actuaries calculate a range of outcomes.

At a minimum, the Company's actuaries analyze 45 product and/or coverage levels for over 40 separate current and prior accident quarters for both losses and LAE using many of the loss reserving estimation methodologies identified above as well as other generally accepted actuarial estimation methodologies. In all, there are over 10,000 combinations of accident quarters, coverage levels, and generally accepted actuarial estimation methodologies used to estimate the Company's unpaid losses and LAE. In some cases, the Company's actuaries make adjustments to the loss reserving estimation methodologies identified above or use additional generally accepted actuarial estimation methodologies to estimate ultimate losses and LAE.

For each accident quarter, the point estimate selected by the Company's actuaries is not necessarily one of the points produced by any particular one of the methodologies utilized, but often is another point selected by the Company's actuaries, using their professional judgment, that takes into consideration each of the points produced by the several loss reserving estimation methodologies used. In some cases, for a particular product, the current accident quarter may not have enough paid claims data to rely upon, leading the Company's actuaries to conclude that the incurred loss development methodology provides a better estimate than the paid loss development methodology. Therefore, the Company's actuaries may give more weight to the incurred loss development methodology for that particular accident quarter. As an accident quarter ages for that same product, the actuary may gain more confidence in the paid loss development methodology and begin to give more weight to the paid loss development methodology. The Company's actuaries' quarterly selections are summed by product and/or coverage levels to create the actuarial indication of the ultimate losses. More often than not, the actuarial indication for a particular product line and accident quarter is most heavily weighted towards the incurred loss development methodology, particularly for short-tail lines such as personal automobile insurance. Historically, the incurred loss development methodology has been more reliable in predicting ultimate losses for these lines, especially in the more recent accident quarters, when compared with the paid loss development methodology. However, in some circumstances changes can occur which impact numerous variables including, but not limited to, those variables identified below that are difficult to quantify and/or impact the predictive value of prior development patterns relied upon in the incurred loss development methodology and paid loss development methodology. In those circumstances, the Company's actuaries must make adjustments to these loss reserving estimation methodologies or use additional generally accepted actuarial estimation methodologies. In those circumstances, the Company's actuaries, using their professional judgment, may place more weight on the adjusted loss reserving estimation methodologies or other generally accepted actuarial estimation methodologies until the newer development patterns fully emerge and the Company's actuaries can fully rely on the unadjusted loss reserving estimation methodologies. In the event of a wide variation among results generated by the different projection methodologies, the Company's actuaries further analyze the data using additional techniques.

In estimating reserves, the Company's actuaries exercise professional judgment and must consider, and are influenced by, many variables that are difficult to quantify, such as:

• Changes in the level of minimum case reserves, and the automatic aging of those minimum case reserves;

• Changes to claims practices including, but not limited to, changes in the reporting and impact of large losses, adequacy of case reserves, implementation of new systems for handling claims, turnover of claims department staffs, timing and depth of the audit review of claims handling procedures;

• Changes in underwriting practices;

• Changes in the mix of business by state, class and policy limit within product line;

• Growth in new lines of business;


Table of Contents

Unitrin, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-(Continued)

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES (Continued)

• Changes in the attachment points of the Company's reinsurance programs;

• Medical costs including, but not limited to, the ability to assess the extent of injuries and the impact of inflation;

• Repair costs including, but not limited to, the impact of inflation and the availability of labor and materials;

• Changes in the judicial environment including, but not limited to, the interpretation of policy provisions, the impact of jury awards and changes in case law; and

• Changes in state regulatory requirements.

A change in any one or more of the foregoing factors is likely to result in a projected ultimate net claim loss and LAE that is different from the previously estimated reserve and/or previous frequency and severity trends. Such changes in estimates may be material.

For example, the Company's actuaries review frequency (number of claims per policy or exposure), severity (dollars of loss per claim) and average premium (dollars of premium per exposure). Actual frequency and severity experienced will vary depending on changes in mix by class of insured risk. Similarly, the actual frequency and rate of recovery from reinsurance will vary depending on changes in the attachment point for reinsurance. In particular, in periods of high growth or expansion into new markets, there may be additional uncertainty in estimating the ultimate losses and LAE. The contributing factors of this potential risk are changes in the Company's mix by policy limit and mix of business by state or jurisdiction.

Actuaries use historical experience and trends as predictors of how losses and LAE will emerge over time. However, historical experience may not necessarily be indicative of how actual losses and LAE will emerge. Changes in reserve adequacy, changes in minimum case reserves and changes in internal claims handling procedures could impact the timing and recognition of incurred claims and produce an estimate that is either too high or too low if not adjusted for by the actuary. For example, if, due to changes in claims handling procedures, actual claims are settled more rapidly than they were settled historically, the estimate produced by the paid loss development methodology would tend to be overstated if the actuary did not identify and adjust for the impact of the changes in claims handling procedures. Similarly, if, due to changes in claims handling procedures, actual claim reserves are set at levels higher than past experience, the estimate produced by the incurred loss development methodology would tend to be overstated if the actuary did not identify and adjust for the impact of the changes in claims handling procedures.

The final step in the quarterly loss and LAE reserving process involves a comprehensive review of the actuarial indications by the Company's senior actuary and senior management who apply their collective judgment and determine the appropriate estimated level of reserves to record. Numerous factors are considered in this determination process, including, but not limited to, the assessed reliability of key loss trends and assumptions that may be significantly influencing the current actuarial indications, changes in claim handling practices or other changes that affect the timing of payment or development patterns, changes in the mix of business, the maturity of the accident year, pertinent trends observed over the recent past, the level of volatility within a particular line of business, the improvement or deterioration of actuarial indications in the current period as compared to prior periods, and the amount of reserves related to third party pools for which the Company does not have access to the underlying data and, accordingly, relies on calculations provided by such pools. Total recorded reserves for property and casualty insurance losses and LAE were 1.2%, 2.0% and 3.9% higher than the actuarial indication of reserves at December 31, 2008, 2007 and 2006, respectively. Total recorded reserves for property and casualty insurance losses and LAE as a percentage of the actuarial indication of reserves decreased in 2008 and 2007 due primarily to the Company's senior actuary and senior management placing greater reliance


Table of Contents

Unitrin, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-(Continued)

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES (Continued)

on the actuarial indications in determining the appropriate estimated level of reserves, due in part to the continued improvement in the actuarial indications in some product lines.

The Company's goal is to ensure its total reserves for property and casualty insurance losses and LAE are adequate to cover all costs, while sustaining minimal variation from the time reserves for losses and LAE are initially estimated until losses and LAE are fully developed. Changes in the Company's estimates of these losses and LAE over time, also referred to as "development," will occur and may be material. Favorable development is recognized when the Company decreases its estimate of previously reported losses and LAE and results in an increase in net income in the period recognized, whereas adverse development is recognized when the Company increases its estimate of previously reported losses and LAE and results in a decrease in net income. The Company recognized total favorable development of $79.3 million, $101.1 million and $91.6 million before tax for the years ended December 31, 2008, 2007 and 2006, respectively. Development for each of the Company's continuing business segments and Unitrin Business Insurance for the years ended December 31, 2008, 2007 and 2006, was:

                                                          Favorable (Adverse) Development
Dollars in Millions                                     2008             2007           2006
Continuing Operations:
Kemper                                               $      61.0       $    54.2      $    68.2
Unitrin Specialty                                            5.5            15.3            8.9
Unitrin Direct                                              (3.2 )          (5.5 )         (4.5 )
Life and Health Insurance                                  (13.7 )          (8.6 )         (6.8 )

Total Favorable Development, Net from Continuing
Operations                                           $      49.6       $    55.4      $    65.8

Discontinued Operations:
Unitrin Business Insurance, Net                             29.7            45.7           25.8

Total Favorable Development, Net                     $      79.3       $   101.1      $    91.6

Development in the Company's Kemper segment comprised a substantial portion of the Company's development reported in continuing operations in 2008, 2007 and 2006. Development in Unitrin Business Insurance comprised all of the Company's development reported in discontinued operations. Together these two operations comprised a substantial portion of the Company's favorable development in 2008, 2007 and 2006. Additional information regarding this development follows.

Kemper Development

In June of 2002, the Company acquired the personal lines property and casualty insurance business of KIC in a renewal rights transaction. Pursuant to the agreements among the parties, KIC retained all liabilities for policies issued by KIC prior to the closing, while the Company is entitled to premiums written for substantially all personal lines property and casualty insurance policies issued or renewed after the closing and is liable for losses and LAE incurred thereon. The Kemper segment did not complete a full calendar year underwriting cycle after the acquisition date until 2004. Accordingly, the Company's results for 2002 and 2003 did not represent 100% of the acquired business. For example, for the 2002 calendar year, the Company's share of earned premiums for the KIC personal lines business was approximately 20% of the entire KIC personal lines business. For the 2003 calendar year, the Company's share of earned premiums was approximately 90% of the entire KIC personal lines business.

The Company's actuaries use various generally accepted actuarial incurred and paid loss development methodologies to estimate unpaid losses and LAE. The key assumption in these estimation methodologies is that


Table of Contents

Unitrin, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-(Continued)

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES (Continued)

patterns observed in prior periods are indicative of how losses and LAE are expected to develop in the future and that such historical data can be used to predict and estimate ultimate losses and LAE. Initially, the Company's actuaries had to rely solely on the historical data of KIC (the "KIC Data") to predict how . . .

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