Search the web
Welcome, Guest
[Sign Out, My Account]
EDGAR_Online

Quotes & Info
Enter Symbol(s):
e.g. YHOO, ^DJI
Symbol Lookup | Financial Search
UNG > SEC Filings for UNG > Form 10-Q on 14-Nov-2008All Recent SEC Filings

Show all filings for UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS FUND, LP | Request a Trial to NEW EDGAR Online Pro

Form 10-Q for UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS FUND, LP


14-Nov-2008

Quarterly Report


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.

The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the condensed financial statements and the notes thereto of the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ("USNG") included elsewhere in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

Forward-Looking Information

This quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including this "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations," contains forward-looking statements regarding the plans and objectives of management for future operations. This information may involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause USNG's actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and describe USNG's future plans, strategies and expectations, are generally identifiable by use of the words "may," "will," "should," "expect," "anticipate," "estimate," "believe," "intend" or "project," the negative of these words, other variations on these words or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that may be incorrect, and USNG cannot assure investors that the projections included in these forward-looking statements will come to pass. USNG's actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.

USNG has based the forward-looking statements included in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q on information available to it on the date of this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, and USNG assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. Although USNG undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, investors are advised to consult any additional disclosures that USNG may make directly to them or through reports that USNG in the future files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), including annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.

Introduction

USNG, a Delaware limited partnership, is a commodity pool that issues units that may be purchased and sold on the American Stock Exchange (the "AMEX"). On September 18, 2008, USNG announced that it would transfer the listing of its limited partnership units that are listed on the AMEX to the NYSE Arca, Inc. in connection with NYSE Euronext's acquisition of the AMEX. USNG expects that the listing transfer will occur sometime during the fourth quarter of 2008. The investment objective of USNG is for changes in percentage terms of its units' net asset value ("NAV") on a daily basis to reflect the changes in percentage terms in the spot price of natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub, Louisiana, also on a daily basis, as measured by the changes in the price of the futures contract on natural gas as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the "NYMEX") that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case the futures contract will be the next month contract to expire, less USNG's expenses.

USNG seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in a combination of natural gas futures contracts and other natural gas-related investments such that changes in its NAV, measured in percentage terms, will closely track the changes in the price of a specified natural gas futures contract (the "Benchmark Futures Contract"), also measured in percentage terms. USNG's general partner believes the Benchmark Futures Contract historically has exhibited a close correlation with the spot price of natural gas. It is not the intent of USNG to be operated in a fashion such that the NAV will equal, in dollar terms, the spot price of natural gas or any particular futures contract based on natural gas. Management believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in listed natural gas futures contracts.

On any valuation day, the Benchmark Futures Contract is the near month futures contract for natural gas traded on the NYMEX unless the near month contract will expire within two weeks of the valuation day, in which case the Benchmark Futures Contract is the next month contract for natural gas traded on the NYMEX. "Near month contract" means the next contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire. "Next month contract" means the first contract traded on the NYMEX due to expire after the near month contract.


USNG may also invest in futures contracts for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures or other U.S. and foreign exchanges (collectively, "Futures Contracts") and other natural gas-related investments such as cash-settled options on Futures Contracts, forward contracts for natural gas and over-the-counter transactions that are based on the price of natural gas, crude oil and other petroleum-based fuels, Futures Contracts and indices based on the foregoing (collectively, "Other Natural Gas-Related Investments"). For convenience and unless otherwise specified, Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments collectively are referred to as "Natural Gas Interests" in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

The general partner of USNG, United States Commodity Funds LLC (formerly, Victoria Bay Asset Management, LLC) (the "General Partner"), which is registered as a commodity pool operator ("CPO") with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the "CFTC"), is authorized by the Second Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership of USNG (the "LP Agreement") to manage USNG. The General Partner is authorized by USNG in its sole judgment to employ and establish the terms of employment for, and termination of, commodity trading advisors or futures commission merchants.

Valuation of Futures Contracts and the Computation of the NAV

The NAV of USNG units is calculated once each trading day as of the earlier of the close of the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") or 4:00 p.m. New York time. The NAV for a particular trading day is released after 4:15 p.m. New York time. Trading on the NYSE typically closes at 4:00 p.m. New York time. USNG uses the NYMEX closing price (determined at the earlier of the close of the NYMEX or 2:30 p.m. New York time) for the contracts held on the NYMEX, but calculates or determines the value of all other USNG investments, including ICE Futures contracts or other futures contracts, as of the earlier of the close of the NYSE or 4:00 p.m. New York time.

Management's Discussion of Results of Operations and the Natural Gas Market

Results of Operations. On April 18, 2007, USNG listed its units on the AMEX under the ticker symbol "UNG." On that day, USNG established its initial offering price at $50.00 per unit and issued 200,000 units to the initial authorized purchaser, Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., in exchange for $10,001,000 in cash.

Since its initial offering of 30,000,000 units, USNG has made two subsequent offerings of its units: 50,000,000 units that were registered with the SEC on November 21, 2007 and an additional 100,000,000 units that were registered with the SEC on August 28, 2008. Units offered by USNG in the subsequent offerings were sold by it for cash at the units' NAV as described in the applicable prospectus. As of September 30, 2008, USNG had issued 97,600,000 units, 33,700,000 of which were outstanding. As of September 30, 2008, there were 82,400,000 units registered but not yet issued.

More units may have been issued by USNG than are outstanding due to the redemption of units. Unlike funds that are registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, units that have been redeemed by USNG cannot be resold by USNG. As a result, USNG contemplates that additional offerings of its units will be registered with the SEC in the future in anticipation of additional issuances and redemptions.

As of September 30, 2008, the total unrealized loss on natural gas Futures Contracts owned or held on that day was $(55,301,140) and USNG established cash deposits, including cash investments in money market funds, that were equal to $1,147,517,640. The majority of cash assets were held in overnight deposits at USNG's custodian bank, while 34.96% of the cash balance was held with the futures commission merchant as margin deposits for the Futures Contracts purchased. The ending per unit NAV on September 30, 2008 was $33.07.

Portfolio Expenses. USNG's expenses consist of investment management fees, brokerage fees and commissions, certain offering costs, licensing fees and the fees and expenses of the independent directors of the General Partner. The management fee that USNG pays to the General Partner is calculated as a percentage of the total net assets of USNG. For total net assets of up to $1 billion, the management fee is 0.60%. For total net assets over $1 billion, the management fee is 0.50% on the incremental amount of assets. The fee is accrued daily.

During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the daily average total net assets of USNG were $711,569,945. During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the total net assets of USNG did exceed $1 billion on a number of days. The management fee paid by USNG during the period amounted to $3,177,614 which was calculated at the 0.60% rate for total net assets up to and including $1 billion and at the rate of 0.50% on total net assets over $1 billion, and accrued daily. Management fees as a percentage of average net assets averaged 0.60% over the course of this nine month period. By comparison, during the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007, the average daily total net assets of USNG were $163,215,433. During the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007, the total net assets of USNG did not exceed $1 billion on any day. The management fee paid by USNG for the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007 amounted to $445,377, which was calculated at the 0.60% rate and accrued daily.


USNG pays for all brokerage fees, taxes and other expenses, including certain tax reporting costs, licensing fees for the use of intellectual property, ongoing registration or other fees paid to the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") and any other regulatory agency in connection with offers and sales of its units subsequent to the initial offering and all legal, accounting, printing and other expenses associated therewith. For the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, USNG incurred $216,699 in ongoing registration fees and other offering expenses. USNG is responsible for paying the fees and expenses, including directors' and officers' liability insurance, of the independent directors of the General Partner who are also audit committee members. USNG shares these fees with USOF, US12OF, USG and USHO based on the relative assets of each fund computed on a daily basis. These fees for calendar year 2008 are estimated to be a total of $286,000 for all five funds. By comparison, for the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007, USNG did not incur any ongoing registration fees and other offering expenses. In addition, USNG agreed to pay the independent directors $286,000 to cover their expenses and pay for their services for 2007.

USNG also incurs commissions to brokers for the purchase and sale of Futures Contracts, Other Natural Gas-Related Investments or short-term obligations of the United States of two years or less ("Treasuries"). During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, total commissions paid to brokers amounted to $604,734. Prior to the initial offering of its units, USNG had estimated that its annual level of such commissions was expected to be 0.13% of total net assets. As an annualized percentage of average net assets, the figure for the nine month period ended September 30, 2008 represented approximately 0.11% of average net assets. By comparison, for the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007, total commissions paid amounted to $158,534. As an annualized percentage of average net assets, the figure for the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007 represented approximately 0.21% of average net assets. However, there can be no assurance that commission costs and portfolio turnover will not cause commission expenses to rise in future quarters.

Interest Income. USNG seeks to invest its assets such that it holds Futures Contracts and Other Natural Gas-Related Investments in an amount equal to the total net assets of the portfolio. Typically, such investments do not require USNG to pay the full amount of the contract value at the time of purchase, but rather require USNG to post an amount as a margin deposit against the eventual settlement of the contract. As a result, USNG retains an amount that is approximately equal to its total net assets, which USNG invests in Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents. This includes both the amount on deposit with the futures commission merchant as margin, as well as unrestricted cash held with USNG's custodian bank. The Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents earn interest that accrues on a daily basis. For the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, USNG earned $10,380,019 in interest income on such cash holdings. Based on USNG's average daily total net assets during this time period, this is equivalent to an annualized yield of 1.95%. USNG did not purchase Treasuries during the nine month period ended September 30, 2008 and held all of its funds in cash and/or cash equivalents during this time period. By comparison, for the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007, USNG earned $3,287,018 in interest income on cash holdings. Based on USNG's average daily total net assets during this time period this is equivalent to an annualized yield of 4.43%.

Tracking USNG's Benchmark. USNG seeks to manage its portfolio such that changes in its average daily NAV, on a percentage basis, closely track changes in the average of the daily price of the Benchmark Futures Contract, also on a percentage basis. Specifically, USNG seeks to manage the portfolio such that over any rolling period of 30 valuation days, the average daily change in the NAV is within a range of 90% to 110% (0.9 to 1.1) of the average daily change of the Benchmark Futures Contract. As an example, if the average daily movement of the Benchmark Futures Contract for a particular 30-day time period was 0.5% per day, USNG's management would attempt to manage the portfolio such that the average daily movement of the NAV during that same time period fell between 0.45% and 0.55% (i.e., between 0.9 and 1.1 of the benchmark's results). USNG's portfolio management goals do not include trying to make the nominal price of USNG's NAV equal to the nominal price of the current Benchmark Futures Contract or the spot price for natural gas. Management believes that it is not practical to manage the portfolio to achieve such an investment goal when investing in listed natural gas Futures Contracts.


For the 30 valuation days ended September 30, 2008, the simple average daily change in the Benchmark Futures Contract was (0.304)%, while the simple average daily change in the NAV of USNG over the same time period was (0.301)%. The average daily difference was 0.013% (or 1.3 basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%). As a percentage of the daily movement of the Benchmark Futures Contract, the average error in daily tracking by the NAV was 1.743%, meaning that over this time period USNG's tracking error was within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.

*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

[[Image Removed]]


[[Image Removed]]

*PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Since the offering of USNG units to the public on April 18, 2007 to September 30, 2008, the simple average daily change in the Benchmark Futures Contract was
(0.084)%, while the simple average daily change in the NAV of USNG over the same time period was (0.076)%. The average daily difference was 0.011% (or 1.1 basis points, where 1 basis point equals 1/100 of 1%). As a percentage of the daily movement of the Benchmark Futures Contract, the average error in daily tracking by the NAV was 1.101%, meaning that over this time period USNG's tracking error was within the plus or minus 10% range established as its benchmark tracking goal.

An alternative tracking measurement of the return performance of USNG versus the return of its Benchmark Futures Contract can be calculated by comparing the actual return of USNG, measured by changes in its NAV, versus the expected changes in its NAV under the assumption that USNG's returns had been exactly the same as the daily changes in its Benchmark Futures Contract.

For the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the actual total return of USNG as measured by changes in its NAV was (8.60)%. This is based on an initial NAV of $36.18 on December 31, 2007 and an ending NAV as of September 30, 2008 of $33.07. During this time period, USNG made no distributions to its unitholders. However, if USNG's daily changes in its NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily return of the Benchmark Futures Contract, USNG would have ended the third quarter of 2008 with an estimated NAV of $32.85, for a total return over the relevant time period of (9.20)%. The difference between the actual NAV total return of USNG of (8.60)% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Futures Contract of (9.20)% was an error over the time period of 0.60%, which is to say that USNG's actual total return exceeded the benchmark result by that percentage. Management believes that a portion of the difference between the actual return and the expected benchmark return can be attributed to the impact of the interest that USNG collects on its cash and cash equivalent holdings. In addition, during the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, USNG also collected fees from brokerage firms creating or redeeming baskets of units. This income also contributed to USNG's actual return exceeding the benchmark results. However, if the total assets of USNG continue to increase, management believes that the impact on total returns of these fees from creations and redemptions will diminish as a percentage of the total return.


By comparison, for the period from April 18, 2007 (commencement of operations) to September 30, 2007, a period of approximately five months, the actual total return of USNG as measured by changes in its NAV was (23.58)%. This was based on an initial NAV of $50.00 on April 18, 2007 and an ending NAV as of September 30, 2007 of $38.21. During this time period, USNG made no distributions to its unitholders. However, if USNG's daily changes in its NAV had instead exactly tracked the changes in the daily return of the Benchmark Futures Contract, USNG would have ended the third quarter of 2007 with an estimated NAV of $37.63, for a total return over the relevant time period of (24.73)%. The difference between the actual NAV total return of USNG of (23.58)% and the expected total return based on the Benchmark Futures Contracts of (24.73)% was an error over the time period of 1.15%, which is to say that USNG's actual total return exceeded the benchmark result by that percentage. Management believes that a portion of the difference between the actual return and the expected benchmark return can be attributed to the impact of the interest that USNG collects on its cash and cash equivalent holdings. In addition, during the period, USNG also collected fees from brokerage firms creating or redeeming baskets of units. This income also contributed to USNG's actual return exceeding the benchmark results.

There are currently three factors that have impacted, during the latest period, or are most likely to impact, USNG's ability to accurately track its Benchmark Futures Contract.

First, USNG may buy or sell its holdings in the then current Benchmark Futures Contract at a price other than the closing settlement price of that contract on the day in which USNG executes the trade. In that case, USNG may get a price that is higher, or lower, than that of the Benchmark Futures Contract, which could cause the changes in the daily NAV of USNG to either be too high or too low relative to the changes in the daily benchmark. During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, management attempted to minimize the effect of these transactions by seeking to execute its purchases or sales of the Benchmark Futures Contracts at, or as close as possible to, the end of the day settlement price. However, it may not always be possible for USNG to obtain the closing settlement price and there is no assurance that failure to obtain the closing settlement price in the future will not adversely impact USNG's attempt to track its benchmark over time.

Second, USNG earns interest on its cash, cash equivalents and Treasury holdings. USNG is not required to distribute any portion of its income to its unitholders and did not make any distributions to unitholders during the nine month period ended September 30, 2008. Interest payments, and any other income, were retained within the portfolio and added to USNG's NAV. When this income exceeds the level of USNG's expenses for its management fee, brokerage commissions and other expenses (including ongoing registration fees, licensing fees and the fees and expenses of the independent directors of the General Partner), USNG will realize a net yield that will tend to cause daily changes in the NAV of USNG to track slightly higher than daily changes in the Benchmark Futures Contract. During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, USNG earned, on an annualized basis, approximately 1.95% on its cash holdings. It also incurred cash expenses on an annualized basis of 0.60% for management fees and approximately 0.11% in brokerage commission costs related to the purchase and sale of futures contracts, and 0.22% for other expenses. The foregoing fees and expenses resulted in a net yield on an annualized basis of approximately 1.02% and affected USNG's ability to track its benchmark. If short-term interest rates rise above the current levels, the level of deviation created by the yield would increase. Conversely, if short-term interest rates were to decline, the amount of error created by the yield would decrease. If short-term yields drop to a level lower than the combined expenses of the management fee and the brokerage commissions, then the tracking error would become a negative number and would tend to cause the daily returns of the NAV to underperform the daily returns of the Benchmark Futures Contract.

Third, USNG may hold Other Natural Gas-Related Investments in its portfolio that may fail to closely track the Benchmark Futures Contract's total return movements. In that case, the error in tracking the benchmark could result in daily changes in the NAV of USNG that are either too high, or too low, relative to the daily changes in the benchmark. During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, USNG did not hold any Other Natural Gas-Related Investments. However, there can be no assurance that in future quarters USNG will not make use of such Other Natural Gas-Related Investments.


During the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the prices of front month Benchmark Futures Contracts fell slightly from $7.483 to $7.438. Except for the start of the nine month period when the price of the front month contract was higher than the price of the second month contract, a condition in the futures markets referred to as "backwardation", the prices of front month contracts were also lower than the prices of second month contracts during the balance of this time period, a condition in the futures markets referred to as "contango". The relationship between the prices of different months of the same futures contracts, the "term structure of futures prices", can have a major impact on the total return of owning such futures contracts over time.

Term Structure of Natural Gas Futures Prices and the Impact on Total Returns. Several factors determine the total return from investing in a futures contract position. One factor that impacts the total return that will result from investing in near month natural gas futures contracts and "rolling" those contracts forward each month is the price relationship between the current near month contract and the later month contracts. For example, if the price of the near month contract is higher than the next month contract (a situation referred to as "backwardation" in the futures market), then absent any other change there is a tendency for the price of a next month contract to rise in value as it becomes the near month contract and approaches expiration. Conversely, if the price of a near month contract is lower than the next month contract (a situation referred to as "contango" in the futures market), then absent any other change there is a tendency for the price of a next month contract to decline in value as it becomes the near month contract and approaches expiration.

As an example, assume that the price of natural gas for immediate delivery (the "spot" price), was $7 per 10,000 million British thermal units ("MMBtu"), and the value of a position in the near month futures contract was also $7. Over time, the price of 10,000 MMBtu of natural gas will fluctuate based on a number of market factors, including demand for natural gas relative to its supply. The value of the near month contract will likewise fluctuate in reaction to a number of market factors. If investors seek to maintain their position in a near month contract and not take delivery of the natural gas, every month they must sell their current near month contract as it approaches expiration and invest in the next month contract.

If the futures market is in backwardation, e.g., when the expected price of natural gas in the future would be less, the investor would be buying a next month contract for a lower price than the current near month contract. Hypothetically, and assuming no other changes to either prevailing natural gas prices or the price relationship between the spot price, the near month contract and the next month contract (and ignoring the impact of commission costs and the interest earned on Treasuries, cash and/or cash equivalents), the value of the next month contract would rise as it approaches expiration and becomes the new near month contract. In this example, the value of the $7 investment would tend to rise faster than the spot price of natural gas, or fall slower. As a result, it would be possible in this hypothetical example for the price of spot natural gas to have risen to $9 after some period of time, while the value of the investment in the futures contract would have risen to $10, assuming backwardation is large enough or enough time has elapsed. Similarly, the spot price of natural gas could have fallen to $5 while the value of an investment in the futures contract could have fallen to only $6. Over time, if backwardation remained constant, the difference would continue to increase.

. . .

  Add UNG to Portfolio     Set Alert         Email to a Friend  
Get SEC Filings for Another Symbol: Symbol Lookup
Quotes & Info for UNG - All Recent SEC Filings
Sign Up for a Free Trial to the NEW EDGAR Online Pro
Detailed SEC, Financial, Ownership and Offering Data on over 12,000 U.S. Public Companies.
Actionable and easy-to-use with searching, alerting, downloading and more.
Request a Trial      Sign Up Now


Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy - Terms of Service
SEC Filing data and information provided by EDGAR Online, Inc. (1-800-416-6651). All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.