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SIRI > SEC Filings for SIRI > Form 10-Q on 12-Nov-2008All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for SIRIUS XM RADIO INC.


12-Nov-2008

Quarterly Report


ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

(All dollar amounts referenced in this Item 2 are in thousands, unless otherwise stated)

Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

The following cautionary statements identify important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements made in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and in other reports and documents published by us from time to time. Any statements about our beliefs, plans, objectives, expectations, assumptions, future events or performance are not historical facts and may be forward-looking. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as "will likely result," "are expected to," "will continue," "is anticipated," "estimated," "intend," "plan," "projection" and "outlook." Any forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the factors discussed throughout our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 (the "Form 10-K") and in other reports and documents published by us from time to time, particularly the risk factors described under "Business-Risk Factors" in Item 1A of the Form 10-K.

Among the significant factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements are:

• our substantial indebtedness, which could adversely affect our financial health, and our need to refinance substantial portions of our debt in the near term, which refinancing may not be available on favorable terms, if at all;

• our merger with XM, including the possibility that the anticipated benefits of the merger may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize; and the risks associated with the undertakings made to the FCC and its affects on our business in the future;

• the useful life of SIRIUS' and XM's satellites, which have experienced failures on their solar arrays and other component failures and, in certain cases, are not insured;

• our dependence upon third parties, including manufacturers and distributors of satellite radios, retailers, automakers and programming providers; and

• our competitive position versus other forms of audio and video entertainment including terrestrial radio, HD radio, internet radio, mobile phones, iPods and other MP3 devices, and emerging next generation networks and technologies.

Because the risk factors referred to above could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by us or on our behalf, you should not place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements. In addition, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made, to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict which will arise or to assess with any precision the impact of each factor on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements.

Executive Summary

We provide satellite radio in the United States. We broadcast music, sports, news, talk, entertainment, traffic and weather for a subscription fee through proprietary satellite radio systems - the SIRIUS system and the XM system. On July 28, 2008, our wholly owned subsidiary, Vernon Merger Corporation, merged (the "Merger") with and into XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and, as a result, XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. is now our wholly owned subsidiary. The SIRIUS satellite radio system consists of three in-orbit satellites, approximately 120 terrestrial repeaters that receive and retransmit signals, satellite uplink facilities and studios. The XM satellite radio system consists of four in-orbit satellites, over 700 terrestrial repeaters that receive and retransmit signals, satellite uplink facilities and studios. Subscribers can also receive music channels and certain other channels over the internet.

Our radios are primarily distributed through retailers; automakers, or OEMs; and through our websites. On September 30, 2008, SIRIUS and XM radios were available at more than 20,000 retail locations. We also have agreements with every major automaker, Acura/Honda, Aston Martin, Audi, Automobili Lamborghini, Bentley, BMW, Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Infiniti/Nissan, Jaguar, Jeep, Kia, Land Rover, Lincoln, Lexus/Toyota/Scion, Maybach, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Mercury, MINI, Mitsubishi, Rolls-Royce, Volvo and


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Volkswagen, to offer either SIRIUS or XM satellite radios as factory or dealer-installed equipment in their vehicles. SIRIUS and XM radios are also offered to customers of rental car companies, including Hertz and Avis.

As of September 30, 2008, we had 18,920,911 subscribers compared with 17,348,622 pro-forma subscribers (8,321,785 actual subscribers) as of December 31, 2007 and 16,234,070 pro-forma subscribers (7,667,476 actual subscribers) as of September 30, 2007. Our current subscriber total includes 9,716,070 XM subscribers that we acquired as a result of the Merger. Our subscriber totals include subscribers under our regular pricing plans; subscribers that have prepaid, including payments received from automakers for prepaid subscriptions included in the sale or lease price of a new vehicle; active SIRIUS radios under our agreement with Hertz; active XM radios under its agreement with Avis; and subscribers to SIRIUS Internet Radio and XM Internet Radio, our Internet services.

Our primary source of revenue is subscription fees, with most of our customers subscribing on an annual, semi-annual, quarterly or monthly basis. We offer discounts for pre-paid and long-term subscriptions as well as discounts for multiple subscriptions. Currently, we receive an average of approximately eight months of prepaid revenue per subscriber upon activation. We also derive revenue from activation fees, the sale of advertising on select non-music channels, the direct sale of satellite radios and accessories, and other ancillary services, such as our Backseat TV, data and weather services. We believe our ability to attract and retain subscribers depends in large part on creating and sustaining distribution channels for satellite radios, the strength of our brands, and the quality and entertainment value of our programming.

In certain cases, automakers include a subscription to our radio services in the sale or lease price of vehicles. The length of these prepaid subscriptions varies, but is typically three months to one year. In many cases, we receive subscription payments from automakers in advance of the activation of our service. We also reimburse various automakers for certain costs associated with satellite radios installed in their vehicles.

We also have an interest in the satellite radio services offered in Canada. SIRIUS Canada Inc. ("SIRIUS Canada"), a Canadian corporation that we jointly own with Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and Standard Radio Inc., offers a satellite radio service in Canada. SIRIUS Canada offers 120 channels of commercial-free music and news, sports, talk and entertainment programming, including 11 channels offering Canadian content. Canadian Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. ("XM Canada"), a Canadian corporation in which we have an ownership interest, also offers satellite radio service in Canada. XM Canada offers 130 channels of music and news, sports, talk and entertainment programming. Subscribers to the SIRIUS Canada service and the XM Canada service are not included in our subscriber count.

On August 5, 2008, Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. changed its name to Sirius XM Radio Inc. XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is operated as an unrestricted subsidiary under our existing indebtedness. As an unrestricted subsidiary, transactions between the companies are required to comply with various contractual provisions in our respective debt instruments.

Economic Outlook

Current economic conditions, particularly the dramatic and recent slowdown in auto sales, have negatively impacted our subscriber growth for 2008 and 2009.

FCC Conditions

In order to demonstrate to the FCC that the Merger was in the public interest, we agreed to implement a number of voluntary commitments. These programming, minority and public interest, equipment, subscription rates, and other service commitments are summarized as follows:

Programming

A La Carte Programming: We have committed to offer the following a la carte programming options to eligible radios:

• 50 channels will be available for $6.99 a month. Additional channels can be added for 25 cents each, with premium programming priced at additional cost. However, in no event will a customer subscribing to this a la carte option pay more than $12.95 per month for this programming.

• 100 channels, including channels from both services, will be available on an a la carte basis for $14.99 a month.


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We have, including channels from both services, introduced these packages and a radio capable of receiving them.

"Best of Both" Programming: We offer customers the ability to receive the best of both SIRIUS and XM programming at a monthly cost of $16.99.

Mostly Music or News, Sports and Talk Programming: We offer customers an option of "mostly music" programming or "mostly news, sports and talk" programming at a cost of $9.99 per month.

Discounted Family-Friendly Programming: We offer consumers a "family-friendly" version of existing SIRIUS or XM programming at a cost of $11.95 a month, representing a discount of $1.00 per month. We also offer SIRIUS and XM customers a family-friendly version of the Best of Both Programming. This programming costs $14.99 per month, representing a discount of $2.00 per month from the cost of the "best of" programming.

Public Interest and Qualified Entity Channels

We have agreed to set aside four percent of the full-time audio channels on the SIRIUS platform and on the XM platform, which currently represents six channels on the SIRIUS platform and six channels on the XM platform, for noncommercial, educational and informational programming within the meaning of the FCC rules that govern a similar obligation of direct broadcast satellite providers. We will not select a programmer to fill more than one non-commercial, educational or informational channel on each of the SIRIUS and XM platforms as long as demand for such channels exceeds available supply.

In addition, we have agreed to enter into long-term leases or other agreements to provide to a Qualified Entity or Entities, defined as an entity or entities that are majority-owned by persons who are African American, not of Hispanic origin; Asian or Pacific Islanders; American Indians or Alaskan Natives; or Hispanics, rights to four percent of the full-time audio channels on the SIRIUS platform and on the XM platform, which currently represents six channels on the SIRIUS platform and six channels on the XM platform. As digital compression technology enables us to broadcast additional full-time audio channels, we will ensure that four percent of full-time audio channels on the SIRIUS platform and the XM platform are reserved for a Qualified Entity or Entities.

The Qualified Entity or Entities will not be required to make any lease payments for such channels. We will have no editorial control over these channels. We expect the FCC to inform us how it plans to select these Qualified Entities in the future.

Equipment

We are required to provide, on commercially reasonable terms, our intellectual property necessary to permit any device manufacturer to develop equipment that can deliver our satellite radio services. Chip sets for satellite radios, which include the encryption, conditional access and security technology necessary to access our satellite radio services, may be purchased by licensees from manufacturers in negotiated transactions with such manufacturers. We will not enter into any agreement that grants, or that would have the effect of granting, a device manufacturer an exclusive right to manufacture, market and sell equipment that can deliver our satellite radio services.

We will also not execute any agreement or take any other action that would bar, or have the effect of barring, a car manufacturer or other third party from including non-interfering HD radio chips, iPod compatibility, or other audio technology in an automobile or audio device.

Service to Puerto Rico

We have filed applications with the FCC to provide the SIRIUS satellite radio service to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico using terrestrial repeaters and will, upon grant of the necessary permanent authorizations, promptly introduce SIRIUS satellite radio service to the Commonwealth.

Interoperable Receivers

Within nine months of the consummation of the Merger, April 28, 2009, we will offer for sale an interoperable receiver in the retail after-market.


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Subscription Rates

We have agreed not to raise the retail price for, or reduce the number of channels in, our basic $12.95 per month subscription package, the a la carte programming packages or the new programming packages described above until July 28, 2011, thirty six months after consummation of the Merger. After July 29, 2009, the first anniversary of the consummation of the Merger, we may pass through cost increases incurred since the filing of our FCC merger application as a result of statutorily or contractually required payments to the music, recording and publishing industries for the performance of musical works and sound recordings or for device recording fees. We will provide customers, either on individual bills or on our website, specific costs passed through to consumers pursuant to the preceding sentence.

Local Programming and Advertising

We have committed not to originate local programming or advertising through our repeater networks.

Pro Forma Information

The following discussion of our pro forma information includes non-GAAP financial results and measures that assume the Merger occurred on January 1, 2007. These financial results exclude the impact of purchase price accounting adjustments and refinancing transactions. We believe this non-GAAP financial information provides meaningful supplemental information regarding our operating performance and is used for internal management purposes, when publicly providing the business outlook, and as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons. Please refer to the footnotes following our discussion of results of operations for the definitions and further discussion of usefulness of such non-GAAP financial measures.

Subscriber and Key Operating Metrics. The following tables contain our pro forma subscribers and key operating metrics for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007:

Pro Forma Subscribers and Metrics:



                                        Pro Forma                     Pro Forma
                                   Three months ended             Nine months ended
                                      September 30,                 September 30,
                                   2008           2007           2008           2007
   Beginning subscribers        18,576,830     15,394,319     17,348,622     13,653,107
   Gross subscriber additions    1,846,996      1,950,842      5,999,714      5,751,123
   Deactivated subscribers      (1,502,915 )   (1,111,092 )   (4,427,425 )   (3,170,161 )

   Net additions                   344,081        839,750      1,572,289      2,580,962

   Ending subscribers           18,920,911     16,234,069     18,920,911     16,234,069

   Retail                        9,036,420      8,927,442      9,036,420      8,927,442
   OEM                           9,777,704      7,238,239      9,777,704      7,238,239
   Rental                          106,787         68,388        106,787         68,388

   Ending subscribers           18,920,911     16,234,069     18,920,911     16,234,069

   Retail                         (149,416 )       46,730       (202,291 )      472,996
   OEM                             492,215        783,400      1,744,432      2,068,732
   Rental                            1,282          9,620         30,148         39,234

   Net additions                   344,081        839,750      1,572,289      2,580,962


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                                                     Pro Forma                        Pro Forma
                                                 Three months ended               Nine months ended
                                                   September 30,                    September 30,
                                                2008            2007            2008             2007
Average self-pay monthly churn (1)(7)               1.7 %           1.6 %            1.7 %            1.7 %
Conversion rate (2)(7)                             47.0 %          50.7 %           49.2 %           50.6 %
ARPU (3)(7)                                  $    10.47      $    10.75      $     10.48      $     10.69
SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber
addition (4)(7)                              $       74      $       86      $        76      $        87
Customer service and billing expenses, as
adjusted,
per average subscriber (5)(7)                $     1.05      $     1.09      $      1.18      $      1.14
Total revenue                                $  612,776      $  529,242      $ 1,792,632      $ 1,501,093
Free cash flow (6)(7)                        $  (97,590 )    $ (102,852 )    $  (577,673 )    $  (510,274 )
Adjusted loss from operations (8)            $  (36,851 )    $ (103,572 )    $  (168,096 )    $  (341,309 )
Net loss                                     $ (217,010 )    $ (265,515 )    $  (653,867 )    $  (842,592 )

Subscribers. We ended the third quarter of 2008 with 18,920,911 subscribers, an increase of 17% from the 16,234,069 subscribers as of September 30, 2007. Gross subscriber additions decreased about 5% in the third quarter 2008 from the prior year period, but increased approximately 4% over the prior year period for the nine months ending September 30, 2008. Gross additions in our OEM channel continued to grow for both the three and nine month periods over the prior year as automakers continued to increase the portion of their production which incorporates satellite radio. The growth in OEM gross additions was offset by declines in retail gross additions. Deactivations for self-pay subscriptions remained consistent with historical levels; non-conversions of subscribers in paid promotional trial periods declined as production penetration rates increased.

ARPU. Total ARPU for the three months ended September 30, 2008 was $10.47, compared to $10.75 for the three months ended September 30, 2007. The decrease was driven by an increase in the mix of discounted OEM promotional trials, subscriber winback programs, second subscribers and a decline in net advertising revenue per average subscriber as subscriber growth exceeded the growth in ad revenues.

We expect ARPU to fluctuate based on the growth of our subscriber base, promotions, rebates offered to subscribers and corresponding take-rates, plan mix, subscription prices, advertising sales and the identification of additional revenue from subscribers.

SAC, As Adjusted, Per Gross Subscriber Addition. SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition was $74 and $86 for the three months ended September 30, 2008 and 2007, respectively. The decrease was primarily driven by lower retail and OEM subsidies due to better product economics.

We expect SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition to decline as the costs of subsidized components of SIRIUS and XM radios decrease in the future. If competitive forces or changes in retailer promotional strategies require us to increase hardware subsidies or promotions, SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition may increase. Our SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition will continue to be impacted by our increasing mix of OEM gross subscriber additions.

Customer Service and Billing Expenses, As Adjusted, Per Average Subscriber. Customer service and billing expenses, as adjusted, per average subscriber declined 4% to $1.05 for the third quarter of 2008 compared with $1.09 for the third quarter of 2007. The decline was primarily due to efficiencies across a larger subscriber base.

We expect customer service and billing expenses, as adjusted, per average subscriber to decrease on an annual basis as our subscriber base grows due to scale efficiencies in our call centers and other customer care and billing operations. Our customer service and billing expenses, as adjusted, per average subscriber are generally lower in the first three quarters of our fiscal year and increase in the fourth quarter due to the holiday selling season.


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Pro Forma Results of Operations. For ease of comparison, set forth below are certain pro forma items that give effect to the Merger as if it had occurred on January 1, 2007. The pro forma information below does not give effect to any adjustments as a result the purchase price accounting for the Merger. See footnote 8 for a reconciliation.

                                                     Pro Forma                      Pro Forma
                                                Three months ended              Nine months ended
                                                   September 30,                  September 30,
(in thousands, except per share data)           2008           2007           2008            2007
Total revenue                                $  612,776     $  529,242     $ 1,792,632     $ 1,501,093
Operating expenses:
Satellite and transmission                       25,136         25,409          76,336          78,024
Programming and content                         131,630        100,675         341,422         292,385
Revenue share and royalties                     120,800         85,394         355,251         239,518
Customer service and billing                     58,857         51,562         177,159         152,396
Cost of equipment                                16,179         15,671          48,020          60,485
Sales and marketing                              78,178         96,490         260,583         289,374
Subscriber acquisition costs                    132,477        162,656         444,396         474,008
General and administrative                       75,981         80,051         215,440         207,608
Engineering, design and development              10,389         14,906          42,121          48,604
Impairment of goodwill                               -              -               -               -
Depreciation and amortization                    64,111         72,474         196,051         218,931
Share-based payment expense                      29,809         42,714          99,673         112,202
Restructuring and related costs                   7,430             -            7,457              -

Total operating expenses                        750,977        748,002       2,263,909       2,173,535

Loss from operations                           (138,201 )     (218,760 )      (471,277 )      (672,442 )
Other expense                                   (77,086 )      (46,095 )      (178,777 )      (169,555 )

Loss before income taxes                       (215,287 )     (264,855 )      (650,054 )      (841,997 )
Income tax expense                               (1,723 )         (660 )        (3,813 )          (595 )

Net loss                                     $ (217,010 )   $ (265,515 )   $  (653,867 )   $  (842,592 )

Highlights for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2008. Our revenue grew 16% or by $83,534 in the three months ended September 30, 2008. This revenue growth was driven by our 17% growth in subscribers. This increase was reflected in improved Adjusted loss from operations (excluding restructuring, goodwill impairment, and merger related costs) of $66,721, as increases in our variable costs were offset by decreases in sales and marketing and subscriber acquisition costs. Total operating expenses, excluding goodwill impairment, restructuring, depreciation and stock based compensation costs and a $27,500 one-time merger related payment to a programming partner, decreased by $10,687 in the quarter.

Programming and content costs for the three months ended September 30, 2008 increased $30,955 including a one-time payment to a programming partner of $27,500 due upon completion of the Merger.

Revenue Share and Royalties increased $35,406 over the prior year, increasing from 16.1% of revenue to 19.7% of revenue. This increase was primarily driven by an increase in the statutory royalties due for the performance of sound recordings. The decision imposing the new royalties was rendered in January 2008, retroactive to January 2007 and was not reflected in the prior year's results until the fourth quarter. Customer service and billing costs increased 14%, or $7,295, from the prior year's in line with the increase in our subscriber base. Sales and marketing cost declined 19%, or $18,312 due to reduced advertising and cooperative marketing spend, offset in part by higher customer retention spending.


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Subscriber acquisition costs declined nearly 19%, or $30,179, and as a percent of revenue improved from 30.7% to 21.6%. This improvement was primarily driven by a 15% improvement in SAC per gross addition due to improved product economics and lower retail and OEM subsidies. Subscriber acquisition costs also declined as a result of the 5% decline in gross additions in the quarter.

General and administrative costs decreased 5%, or $4,070, and declined as a percent of revenue, reflecting one time costs in connection with the Merger. Engineering, design and development costs decreased 30%, or $4,517, due to fewer new OEM platform launches and lower product development costs.

Actual Results of Operations

Our discussion of our results of operations, along with the selected financial information in the tables that follow, includes the following non-GAAP financial measures: average monthly self-pay churn; conversion rate; average monthly revenue per subscriber, or ARPU; SAC, as adjusted, per gross subscriber addition; customer service and billing expenses, as adjusted, per average subscriber; free cash flow; and adjusted loss from operations. We believe these non-GAAP financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding our operating performance and are used for internal management purposes, when publicly providing the business outlook, and as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons. Please refer to the footnotes following our discussion of results of operations for the definitions and further discussion of usefulness of such non-GAAP financial measures.

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