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| NCT > SEC Filings for NCT > Form 10-Q on 10-Nov-2008 | All Recent SEC Filings |
10-Nov-2008
Quarterly Report
The following should be read in conjunction with the unaudited consolidated financial statements and notes included herein.
GENERAL
Newcastle Investment Corp. is a real estate investment and finance company. We invest in real estate securities, loans and other real estate related assets. In addition, we consider other opportunistic investments which capitalize on our manager's expertise and which we believe present attractive risk/return profiles and are consistent with our investment guidelines. We seek to deliver stable dividends and attractive risk-adjusted returns to our stockholders through prudent asset selection, active management and the use of match funded financing structures, when appropriate and available, which reduce our interest rate and financing risks. Our objective is to maximize the difference between the yield on our investments and the cost of financing these investments while hedging our interest rate risk. We emphasize portfolio management, asset quality, diversification, match funded financing and credit risk management.
We currently own a diversified portfolio of credit sensitive real estate debt investments including securities and loans. Our portfolio of real estate securities includes commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), senior unsecured debt issued by property REITs, real estate related asset backed securities (ABS), and FNMA/FHLMC securities. Mortgage backed securities are interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans. We generally target investments rated A through BB, except for our FNMA/FHLMC securities which have an implied AAA rating. We also own, directly and indirectly, interests in loans and pools of loans, including real estate related loans, commercial mortgage loans, residential mortgage loans, manufactured housing loans, and subprime mortgage loans.
We employ leverage in order to achieve our return objectives. We do not have a predetermined target debt to equity ratio as we believe the appropriate leverage for the particular assets we are financing depends on the credit quality of those assets. (As a result of our negative GAAP equity, our GAAP debt to equity ratio is not a meaningful measure as of September 30, 2008.) Our general investment guidelines adopted by our board of directors limit total leverage (as defined under the governing documents) to a maximum 9.0 to 1 debt to equity ratio. As of September 30, 2008, our debt to equity ratio, as computed under this method, was approximately 5.0 to 1.0.
We strive to maintain access to a broad array of capital resources in an effort to insulate our business from potential fluctuations in the availability of capital. We utilize multiple forms of financing including collateralized bond obligations (CBOs), other securitizations, term loans, and trust preferred securities, as well as short term financing in the form of repurchase agreements. As we discuss in more detail under "-Market Considerations" below, the ongoing credit and liquidity crisis has limited the array of capital resources available to us and made the terms of capital resources we are able to obtain generally less favorable to us.
We seek to match fund our investments with respect to interest rates and maturities in order to minimize the impact of interest rate fluctuations on earnings and reduce the risk of refinancing our liabilities prior to the maturity of the investments. We seek to finance a substantial portion of our real estate securities and loans through the issuance of term debt, which generally represents obligations issued in multiple classes secured by an underlying portfolio of assets. Specifically, our CBO financings offer us the structural flexibility to buy and sell certain investments to manage risk and, subject to certain limitations, to optimize returns.
We conduct our business through four primary segments: (i) investments financed with non-recourse collateralized bond obligations ("CBOs"), (ii) investments financed with other non-recourse debt, (iii) investments financed with recourse debt, including FNMA / FHLMC securities, and (iv) unlevered investments. In the second quarter of 2008, Newcastle changed the structure of its internal organization such that the basis of the composition of its reportable segments changed from investment type to financing type. Revenues attributable to each segment are disclosed below (in thousands).
For the Nine Months Other Ended September 30, CBOs Non-Recourse Recourse Unlevered Unallocated Total 2008 $ 232,652 $ 67,700 $ 39,417 $ 19,861 $ 1,831 $ 361,461 2007 $ 287,441 $ 79,213 $ 129,669 $ 26,240 $ 1,283 $ 523,846 |
Market Considerations
Financial Institutions
Many market participants have become increasingly uncertain about the health of a number of financial institutions and the financial system in general. Continuing write-downs and capital related issues affecting financial market participants have contributed to the recent wave of significant events affecting financial institutions, including the insolvency of Lehman Brothers, the government's placing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG under its supervision and the announced distressed sales of all or portions of Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia and Washington Mutual. Although the United States and other governments have begun to take a number of significant steps to improve market conditions and the strength of major financial institutions, such efforts to date have not brought stability or liquidity to the capital markets, and we cannot predict the future conditions of these markets or the impact of such condition on our business.
We did not have any meaningful exposure to Lehman Brothers and have not experienced any meaningful losses as a result of its insolvency. However, the consolidation or elimination of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and several other counterparties has increased our concentration of counterparty risk, decreased the universe of potential counterparties and reduced our ability to obtain competitive financing rates and terms.
Financial Markets in which We Operate
Our ability to generate income is dependent on our ability to invest our capital on a timely basis at attractive levels. The two primary market factors that affect this ability are (1) credit spreads and (2) the availability of financing on favorable terms.
Generally speaking, widening credit spreads reduce any unrealized gains on our current investments (or cause or increase unrealized losses) and increase our costs for new financings, but increase the yields available on potential new investments, while tightening credit spreads increase the unrealized gains (or reduce unrealized losses) on our current investments and reduce our costs for new financings, but reduce the yields available on potential new investments. By reducing unrealized gains (or causing unrealized losses), widening credit spreads also impact our ability to realize gains on existing investments if we were to sell such assets.
In the first nine months of 2008, credit spreads widened substantially. This net widening of credit spreads caused the net unrealized losses on our securities and derivatives, recorded in accumulated other comprehensive income, to increase and, therefore, caused our book value per share to be negative at the end of each of the first three quarters of 2008. One of the key drivers of the widening of credit spreads has been the continued disruption and liquidity concerns throughout the credit markets. The severity and scope of the disruption intensified meaningfully during the third quarter of 2008 and caused credit spreads to widen further during this period. The disruption and spread widening increased appreciably in October 2008.
Widening credit spreads, while reducing our book value per share, also result in higher yields on new investment opportunities. However, we must have access to capital at attractive terms in order to take advantage of these investment opportunities. Currently, we are unable to take meaningful advantage of the increased yields available on investments due to a lack of available capital, and we may continue to experience the same restrictions to some degree throughout the rest of 2008 and into 2009. Non-recourse term financing not subject to margin requirements is generally not available, and we must maintain our current sources of capital in order to meet our working capital needs.
Other Market Considerations
In addition, the ongoing credit and liquidity crisis has adversely affected us and the market in which we operate in a number of other ways. For example, it has reduced the market trading activity for many real estate securities (including, to a less significant extent, FNMA/FHLMC) and loans, resulting in less liquid markets for those securities and loans. As the securities held by us and many other companies in our industry are marked to market at the end of each quarter, the decreased liquidity and concern over market conditions have resulted in significant reductions in mark to market valuations of many real estate securities and loans. These lower valuations, and decreased expectations of future cash flows, have affected us by, among other things, decreasing our net book value, contributing to our decision to record significant impairment charges during the last six consecutive fiscal quarters and requiring us to pay additional amounts under certain financing arrangements.
If current adverse market conditions persist or worsen, it is likely that we will record additional impairments in the future. Such impairments could be significant and could negatively impact our ability to comply with the covenants in a significant number of our financings, which would negatively impact our liquidity and financial condition. For more information on the impact of impairments on our financial covenants, please see our discussion below under "-Liquidity and Capital Resources" and "-Debt Obligations."
In order to maintain sufficient liquidity, we have elected to retain the majority of our investment proceeds (including those from asset sales) in lieu of using those proceeds to make new investments, and to reduce our dividend below the level of our operating income. This approach has increased our available cash while reducing the earnings from our investments. We may elect to adjust any future dividend payments to reflect our current and expected cash from operations or to satisfy future liquidity needs.
We do not currently know the full extent to which this market disruption will affect us or the markets in which we operate, and we are unable to predict its length or ultimate severity. If the disruption continues, we will likely experience further tightening of liquidity, additional impairment charges, challenges in complying with the terms of our financing agreements, increased margin requirements, and additional challenges in raising capital and obtaining investment financing on attractive terms.
Future cash flows and our liquidity may be materially impacted if conditions do not improve. Should the current conditions worsen, or persist for an extended period of time, our available capital could be reduced upon the expiration or termination of our capital resources.
As of the date of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, based on our cash balances and committed financing, as well as proceeds from select asset sales, we believe we have sufficient liquidity to maintain our ongoing operations in the current market environment.
Certain aspects of these effects are more fully described in "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Interest Rate, Credit and Spread Risk" as well as in "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk."
APPLICATION OF CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations is based upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). The preparation of financial statements in conformity with GAAP requires the use of estimates and assumptions that could affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, the disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities and the reported amounts of revenue and expenses. Actual results could differ from these estimates. Management believes that the estimates and assumptions utilized in the preparation of the consolidated financial statements are prudent and reasonable. Actual results have been in line with management's estimates and judgments used in applying each of the accounting policies described below. The following is a summary of our accounting policies that are most effected by judgments, estimates and assumptions.
Variable Interest Entities
In December 2003, Financial Accounting Standards Board Interpretation ("FIN") No. 46R "Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities" was issued as a modification of FIN 46. FIN 46R clarified the methodology for determining whether an entity is a variable interest entity ("VIE") and the methodology for assessing who is the primary beneficiary of a VIE. VIEs are defined as entities in which equity investors do not have the characteristics of a controlling financial interest or do not have sufficient equity at risk for the entity to finance its activities without additional subordinated financial support from other parties. A VIE is required to be consolidated by its primary beneficiary, and only by its primary beneficiary, which is defined as the party who will absorb a majority of the VIE's expected losses or receive a majority of the expected residual returns as a result of holding variable interests.
We will continue to analyze future investments pursuant to the requirements of FIN 46R. These analyses require considerable judgment in determining the primary beneficiary of a VIE since they involve subjective probability weighting of subjectively determined possible cash flow scenarios. The result could be the consolidation of an entity acquired or formed in the future that would otherwise not have been consolidated or the non-consolidation of such an entity that would otherwise have been consolidated.
Valuation and Impairment of Securities
We have classified our real estate securities as available for sale. As such, they are carried at fair value with net unrealized gains or losses reported as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income, to the extent impairment losses are considered temporary as described below. Fair value is based primarily upon broker quotations, including counterparty quotations, which provide valuation estimates based upon reasonable market order indications or a good faith estimate thereof. These quotations are subject to significant variability based on market conditions, such as interest rates, credit spreads and market liquidity. A significant portion of our securities are currently not traded in active markets and therefore have little or no price transparency. For a further discussion on this trend, see "- Market Considerations" above.
As of September 30, 2008, our securities valuation methodology and results can be summarized as follows (dollars in thousands):
Fair Value
Based on
Outstanding Amortized Internal
Face Cost Multiple Single Pricing
Asset Type Amount Basis (A) Quotes (B) Quote) (C) Models (D) Total
CMBS $ 2,268,297 $ 2,153,316 $ 779,494 $ 660,679 $ 27,453 $ 1,467,626
ABS - subprime 564,054 257,085 44,191 54,102 118,738 217,031
Subprime retained 80,380 9,184 - - 9,423 9,423
Subprime residuals 2,572 2,572 - - 2,572 2,572
ABS - other real estate 101,252 94,669 5,517 65,749 - 71,266
FNMA / FHLMC 466,249 469,571 - 472,780 - 472,780
REIT debt 652,516 662,395 385,554 158,492 - 544,046
Total $ 4,135,320 $ 3,648,792 $ 1,214,756 $ 1,411,802 $ 158,186 $ 2,784,744
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(A) After impairment, including impairment taken during the period ended September 30, 2008.
(B) Management generally obtained broker quotations from two sources, one of which was generally the seller (the party that sold us the security). Management selected one of the quotes received as being most representative of fair value and did not use an average of the quotes. Management determined which quote to use based on its knowledge of the market and the amount it estimates it could receive in a current sale.
(C) Management was unable to obtain quotations from more than one source on these securities. The one source was generally the seller (the party that sold us the security).
Impairment Unrealized
Amortized Recorded Gains (Losses)
Cost In Current in Accum.
Basis Fair Value Year OCI
CMBS $ 27,647 $ 27,453 $ (20,235 ) $ (195 )
ABS - subprime 116,980 118,738 (142,837 ) 1,759
Subprime retained 9,184 9,423 (51,750 ) 239
Subprime residuals 2,572 2,572 (43,640 ) -
ABS - other RE - - - -
Total $ 156,383 $ 158,186 $ (258,462 ) $ 1,803
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Changes in market conditions, as well as changes in the assumptions or methodology used to determine fair value, could result in a significant increase or decrease in our book equity. For securities valued using quotations, a 100 basis point change in credit spreads would impact estimated fair value by approximately $86.2 million. For securities valued using pricing models, the inputs include the discount rate, assumptions relating to prepayments, default rates and loss severities, as well as other variables. We validated the inputs and outputs of our models by comparing them to available independent third party market parameters and models for reasonableness. We believe the assumptions we used are within the range that a market participant would use and factor in the relative illiquidity currently in the markets. In comparison to the prior year end, we have used slower prepayment speeds, higher default rates and higher severity assumptions as inputs to our pricing models in order to reflect current market conditions. For securities valued with internal models, a 10% increase in the default rate assumption would result in a $25.6 million decrease in estimated fair value.
Pursuant to SFAS 157, as described below, our securities must be categorized by the "level" of inputs used in estimating their fair values. Level 1 would be assets valued based on quoted prices for identical instruments in active markets; we have no level 1 assets. Level 2 would be assets valued based on quoted prices in active markets for similar instruments, on quoted prices in less active or inactive markets, or on other "observable" market inputs. Level 3 would be assets valued based significantly on "unobservable" market inputs. We have further broken level 3 into level 3A, third party indications, and level 3B, internal models.
We generally classify the broker quotations we receive as level 3A inputs, except for certain liquid securities. They are quoted prices in generally inactive and illiquid markets for identical or similar securities. These quotations are generally received via email and contain disclaimers which state that they are not "actionable" - meaning that the party giving the quotation is not bound to actually purchase the security at the quoted price. Based on procedures we have performed with respect to prior quotations received from these brokers in comparison to transactions we have completed with respect to these securities, as well as on our knowledge and experience of these markets, we have generally determined that these quotes represent a reasonable estimate of fair value. In addition, management has performed its own analysis of fair value to confirm that the quotations received represented a reasonable estimate of fair value as defined under SFAS 157.
We must also assess whether unrealized losses on securities, if any, reflect a decline in value which is other-than-temporary and, accordingly, write the impaired security down to its fair value through earnings. For example, a decline in value is deemed to be other-than-temporary if it is probable that we will be unable to collect all amounts due according to the contractual terms of a security which was not impaired at acquisition, or if we do not have the ability and intent to hold a security in an unrealized loss position until its anticipated recovery (if any).
Also, for those securities within the scope of EITF Issue No. 99-20, "Recognition of Interest Income and Impairment on Purchased Beneficial Interests That Continue to Be Held by a Transferor in Securitized Financial Assets", whenever there is an adverse change in estimated cash flows that a market participant would use in determining the current fair value of the security from the cash flows previously projected, an other-than-temporary impairment is considered to have occurred.
Temporary declines in value generally result from changes in market factors, such as market interest rates and credit spreads, or from certain macroeconomic events, including market disruptions and supply changes, which do not directly impact our ability to collect amounts contractually due. We continually evaluate the credit status of each of our securities and the collateral supporting our securities. This evaluation includes a review of the credit of the issuer of the security (if applicable), the credit rating of the security, the key terms of the security (including credit support), debt service coverage and loan to value ratios, the performance of the pool of underlying loans and the estimated value of the collateral supporting such loans, including the effect of local, industry and broader economic trends and factors. These factors include loan default expectations and loss severities, which are analyzed in connection with a particular security's credit support, as well as prepayment rates. The result of this evaluation is considered when determining management's estimate of cash flows and in relation to the amount of the unrealized loss and the period elapsed since it was incurred. Significant judgment is required in this analysis.
Furthermore, the analysis of whether we have the intent and ability to hold the securities until recovery can also be subject to significant judgment, particularly in times of market illiquidity such as we are currently experiencing. If we sell assets for liquidity reasons, without a significant change in facts and circumstances, with respect to which we had previously expressed an intent and ability to hold, this could "taint" the reliability of our expressed intent and ability and cause us to record significant incremental impairments in the future.
Revenue Recognition on Securities
Income on these securities is recognized using a level yield methodology based upon a number of cash flow assumptions that are subject to uncertainties and contingencies. Such assumptions include the rate and timing of principal and interest receipts (which may be subject to prepayments and defaults). These assumptions are updated on at least a quarterly basis to reflect changes related to a particular security, actual historical data, and market changes. These uncertainties and contingencies are difficult to predict and are subject to future events, and economic and market conditions, which may alter the assumptions. For securities acquired at a discount for credit losses, the net income recognized is based on a "loss adjusted yield" whereby a gross interest yield is recorded to Interest Income, offset by a provision for probable, incurred credit losses which is accrued on a periodic basis to Provision for Credit Losses. The provision is determined based on an evaluation of the credit status of securities, as described in connection with the analysis of impairment above.
Valuation of Derivatives
Similarly, our derivative instruments are carried at fair value pursuant to Statement of Financial Accounting Standards ("SFAS") No. 133 "Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities," as amended. Fair value is based on counterparty quotations. To the extent they qualify as cash flow hedges under SFAS No. 133, net unrealized gains or losses are reported as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income; otherwise, they are reported currently in income. To the extent they qualify as fair value hedges, net unrealized gains or losses on both the derivative and the related portion of the hedged item are reported currently in income. Fair values of such derivatives are subject to significant variability based on many of the same factors as the securities discussed above. The results of such variability could be a significant increase or decrease in our book equity and/or earnings.
Impairment of Loans
We purchase, directly and indirectly, real estate related, commercial mortgage and residential mortgage loans, including manufactured housing loans and subprime mortgage loans, to be held for investment. We must periodically evaluate each of these loans or loan pools for possible impairment. Impairment is indicated when it is deemed probable that we will be unable to collect all amounts due according to the contractual terms of the loan, or, for loans acquired at a discount for credit losses, when it is deemed probable that we will be unable to collect as anticipated. Upon determination of impairment, we would establish a specific valuation allowance with a corresponding charge to earnings. We continually evaluate our loans receivable for impairment. Our residential mortgage loans, including manufactured housing loans, are aggregated into pools for evaluation based on like characteristics, such as loan type and acquisition date. Individual loans are evaluated based on an analysis of the borrower's performance, the credit rating of the borrower, debt service coverage and loan to value ratios, the estimated value of the underlying collateral, the key terms of the loan, and the effect of local, industry and broader economic . . .
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