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LNC > SEC Filings for LNC > Form 10-Q on 10-Nov-2008All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP


10-Nov-2008

Quarterly Report


Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

The following Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") is intended to help the reader understand the financial condition of Lincoln National Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries ("LNC," "Lincoln" or the "Company," which also may be referred to as "we," "our" or "us") as of September 30, 2008, compared with December 31, 2007, and the results of operations of LNC for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008, as compared with the corresponding periods in 2007. The MD&A is provided as a supplement to and should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and the accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements ("Notes") presented in "Item 1. Financial Statements" and our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 ("2007 Form 10-K"), including the sections entitled "Part I - Item 1A. Risk Factors," "Part II - Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" and "Part II - Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data", as well as "Part II - Item 1A. Risk Factors" below.

In this report, in addition to providing consolidated revenues and net income
(loss), we also provide segment operating revenues and income (loss) from operations because we believe they are meaningful measures of revenues and the profitability of our operating segments. Income (loss) from operations is net income recorded in accordance with United States of America generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") excluding the after-tax effects of the following items, as applicable:

• Realized gains and losses associated with the following ("excluded realized gain (loss)"):

• Sale or disposal of securities;

• Impairments of securities;

• Change in the fair value of embedded derivatives within certain reinsurance arrangements and the change in the fair value of related trading securities;

• Change in the fair value of the embedded derivatives of our guaranteed living benefits ("GLB") within our variable annuities net of the change in the fair value of the derivatives we own to hedge the changes in the embedded derivative;

• Net difference between the benefit ratio unlocking of Statement of Position ("SOP") No. 03-1, "Accounting and Reporting by Insurance Enterprises for Certain Nontraditional Long-Duration Contracts and for Separate Accounts" ("SOP 03-1") reserves on our guaranteed death benefit ("GDB") riders within our variable annuities and the change in the fair value of the derivatives excluding our expected cost of purchasing the hedging instruments; and

• Changes in the fair value of the embedded derivative liabilities related to index call options we may purchase in the future to hedge contract holder index allocations applicable to future reset periods for our indexed annuity products as required under Statements of Financial Accounting Standards ("SFAS") No. 133, "Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities" ("SFAS 133") and SFAS No. 157, "Fair Value Measurements" ("SFAS 157").

• Income (loss) from the initial adoption of changes in accounting principles;

• Income (loss) from reserve changes (net of related amortization) on business sold through reinsurance;

• Losses on early retirement of debt, including subordinated debt;

• Losses from the impairment of intangible assets; and

• Income (loss) from discontinued operations.

Operating revenues represent GAAP revenues excluding the pre-tax effects of the following items, as applicable:

• Excluded realized gain (loss);

• Amortization of deferred gains arising from the reserve changes on business sold through reinsurance; and

• Revenue adjustments from the initial impact of the adoption of changes in accounting principles.

Operating revenues and income (loss) from operations are the financial performance measures we use to evaluate and assess the results of our segments. Accordingly, we report operating revenues and income (loss) from operations by segment in Note 17. Our management and Board of Directors believe that operating revenues and income (loss) from operations explain the results of our ongoing businesses in a manner that allows for a better understanding of the underlying trends in our current businesses because the excluded items are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of current operating fundamentals or future performance of the business segments, and, in many instances, decisions regarding these items do not necessarily relate to the operations of the individual segments. Operating revenues and income (loss) from operations do not replace revenues and net income as the GAAP measures of our consolidated results of operations.

Beginning with the quarter ended June 30, 2008, we changed our definitions of segment operating revenues and income from operations to better reflect: the underlying economics of our variable and indexed annuities that employ derivative instruments to hedge policy benefits; and the manner in which management evaluates that business. Our change in the definition of income from operations is primarily the result of our adoption of SFAS 157 during the first quarter of 2008. See Note 2. Under SFAS 157's fair value calculation, we are required to fair value these annuities from an "exit value" perspective, (i.e., what a market participant or willing buyer would charge to assume the liability). We, therefore, must include margins that a market participant buyer would require as well as a factor for non-performance risk related to our credit quality. We do not believe that these factors relate to the


economics of the underlying business and do not reflect the manner in which management evaluates the business. The items that are now excluded from our operating results that were previously included are as follows: GLB net derivatives results; indexed annuity forward-starting option; and GDB derivatives results. For more information regarding this change, see our current report on Form 8-K dated July 16, 2008.

We continue to exclude the effects of any realized gain (loss) on investments from segment operating revenues and income from operations as we believe that such items are not necessarily indicative of current operating fundamentals or future performance of the business segments, and, in many instances, decisions regarding these items do not necessarily relate to the operations of the individual segments.

We believe that our new definitions of operating revenues and income (loss) from operations will provide investors with a more valuable measure of our performance because it better reveals trends in our business. See "Realized Loss" below for more information about these items.

Certain reclassifications have been made to prior periods' financial information. Included in these reclassifications is the change in our definition of segment operating revenues and income (loss) from operations as discussed above. In addition, we have reclassified the results of certain derivatives and embedded derivatives to realized gain (loss), which were previously reported within insurance fees, net investment income, interest credited or benefits. The associated amortization expense of deferred acquisition costs ("DAC") and value of business acquired ("VOBA") (previously reported within underwriting, acquisition, insurance and other expenses), deferred sales inducements ("DSI") (previously reported within interest credited), deferred front-end loads ("DFEL") (previously reported within insurance fees) and changes in contract holder funds (previously reported within benefits) have also been reclassified to realized gain (loss). See Note 1 for additional information.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS - CAUTIONARY LANGUAGE

Certain statements made in this report and in other written or oral statements made by LNC or on LNC's behalf are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ("PSLRA"). A forward-looking statement is a statement that is not a historical fact and, without limitation, includes any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words like: "believe," "anticipate," "expect," "estimate," "project," "will," "shall" and other words or phrases with similar meaning in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. In particular, these include statements relating to future actions, trends in our businesses, prospective services or products, future performance or financial results and the outcome of contingencies, such as legal proceedings. LNC claims the protection afforded by the safe harbor for forward-looking statements provided by the PSLRA.

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results contained in the forward-looking statements. Risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to vary materially, some of which are described within the forward-looking statements, include, among others:

• Continued deterioration in general economic and business conditions, both domestic and foreign, that may affect foreign exchange rates, premium levels, claims experience, the level of pension benefit costs and funding and investment results;

• Continued economic declines and credit market illiquidity could cause us to realize additional impairments on investments and certain intangible assets including a valuation allowance against deferred tax assets, which may reduce future earnings and/or affect our financial condition and ability to raise additional capital or refinance existing debt as it matures;

• Uncertainty about the effectiveness of the U.S. government's plan to purchase large amounts of illiquid, mortgage-backed and other securities from financial institutions;

• Legislative, regulatory or tax changes, both domestic and foreign, that affect the cost of, or demand for, LNC's products, the required amount of reserves and/or surplus, or otherwise affect our ability to conduct business, including changes to statutory reserves and/or risk-based capital ("RBC") requirements related to secondary guarantees under universal life and variable annuity products such as Actuarial Guideline VACARVM ("VACARVM"); restrictions on revenue sharing and 12b-1 payments; and the potential for U.S. Federal tax reform;

• The initiation of legal or regulatory proceedings against LNC or its subsidiaries, and the outcome of any legal or regulatory proceedings, such as:
adverse actions related to present or past business practices common in businesses in which LNC and its subsidiaries compete; adverse decisions in significant actions including, but not limited to, actions brought by federal and state authorities and extra-contractual and class action damage cases; new decisions that result in changes in law; and unexpected trial court rulings;

• Changes in interest rates causing a reduction of investment income, the margins of LNC's fixed annuity and life insurance businesses and demand for LNC's products;

• A decline in the equity markets causing a reduction in the sales of LNC's products, a reduction of asset-based fees that LNC charges on various investment and insurance products, an acceleration of amortization of DAC, VOBA, DSI and DFEL and an increase in liabilities related to guaranteed benefit features of LNC's variable annuity products;



• Ineffectiveness of LNC's various hedging strategies used to offset the impact of changes in the value of liabilities due to changes in the level and volatility of the equity markets and interest rates;

• A deviation in actual experience regarding future persistency, mortality, morbidity, interest rates or equity market returns from LNC's assumptions used in pricing its products, in establishing related insurance reserves and in the amortization of intangibles that may result in an increase in reserves and a decrease in net income, including as a result of stranger-originated life insurance business;

• Changes in GAAP that may result in unanticipated changes to LNC's net income, including the impact of SFAS 157 and SFAS No. 159, "The Fair Value Option for Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities";

• Lowering of one or more of LNC's debt ratings issued by nationally recognized statistical rating organizations and the adverse impact such action may have on LNC's ability to raise capital and on its liquidity and financial condition;

• Lowering of one or more of the insurer financial strength ratings of LNC's insurance subsidiaries and the adverse impact such action may have on the premium writings, policy retention and profitability of its insurance subsidiaries;

• Significant credit, accounting, fraud or corporate governance issues that may adversely affect the value of certain investments in the portfolios of LNC's companies requiring that LNC realize losses on such investments;

• The impact of acquisitions and divestitures, restructurings, product withdrawals and other unusual items, including LNC's ability to integrate acquisitions and to obtain the anticipated results and synergies from acquisitions, including LNC's ability to successfully integrate Jefferson-Pilot Corporation ("Jefferson-Pilot") businesses acquired on April 3, 2006, to achieve the expected synergies from the merger or to achieve such synergies within our expected timeframe;

• The adequacy and collectibility of reinsurance that LNC has purchased;

• Acts of terrorism, war or other man-made and natural catastrophes that may adversely affect LNC's businesses and the cost and availability of reinsurance;

• Competitive conditions, including pricing pressures, new product offerings and the emergence of new competitors, that may affect the level of premiums and fees that LNC can charge for its products;

• The unknown impact on LNC's business resulting from changes in the demographics of LNC's client base, as aging baby-boomers move from the asset-accumulation stage to the asset-distribution stage of life; and

• Loss of key management, portfolio managers in the Investment Management segment, financial planners or wholesalers.

The risks included here are not exhaustive. Other sections of this report, our 2007 Form 10-K, current reports on Form 8-K and other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") include additional factors that could impact LNC's business and financial performance, including "Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk" and the risk discussions included in this section under "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates," "Consolidated Investments" and "Reinsurance," which are incorporated herein by reference. Moreover, LNC operates in a rapidly changing and competitive environment. New risk factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for management to predict all such risk factors.

Further, it is not possible to assess the impact of all risk factors on LNC's business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Given these risks and uncertainties, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results. In addition, LNC disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date of this report.

INTRODUCTION

Executive Summary

We are a holding company that operates multiple insurance and investment management businesses through subsidiary companies. Through our business segments, we sell a wide range of wealth protection, accumulation and retirement income products and solutions. These products include institutional and/or retail fixed and indexed annuities, variable annuities, universal life insurance ("UL"), variable universal life insurance ("VUL"), linked-benefit UL, term life insurance, mutual funds and managed accounts.


On July 21, 2008, we announced the realignment of our segments under our former Employer Markets and Individual Markets businesses into two new businesses - Retirement Solutions and Insurance Solutions. We believe the new structure more closely aligns with consumer needs and should lead to more coordinated product development and greater effectiveness across the enterprise. The only change to our segment reporting is reporting the results of the Executive Benefits business, which as of June 30, 2008, was part of the Retirement Products segment, in the Life Insurance segment. Accordingly, beginning in the third quarter of 2008, we provide products and services in four operating business and report results through six segments as follows:

Business                    Corresponding Segments
Retirement Solutions        Annuities

                            Defined Contribution (formerly Retirement Products)

Insurance Solutions         Life Insurance (including Executive Benefits business)
                            Group Protection

Investment Management       Investment Management

Lincoln UK                  Lincoln UK

These changes to the Retirement Products and the Life Insurance segments are in accordance with the provisions of SFAS No. 131, "Disclosures about Segments of an Enterprise and Related Information," and reflect the manner in which we are organized for purposes of making operating decisions and assessing performance. Our segment results are reported under this new structure beginning in the third quarter of 2008, and we have restated results from prior periods in a consistent manner. We view the changes to the existing segments as immaterial.

We also have Other Operations, which includes the financial data for operations that are not directly related to the business segments. Other Operations also includes our run-off Institutional Pension business, which was previously reported in Employer Markets - Retirement Products and the results of our remaining media businesses.

Current Market Conditions

During the first nine months of the year, the capital markets continued to experience high volatility that affected both equity market returns and interest rates. In addition, credit spreads widened across asset classes and reduced liquidity in the credit markets. Earnings for the remainder of 2008 will continue to be unfavorably impacted by the significant decline in the equity markets during the first nine months of 2008. Due to these challenges, the capital markets had a significant effect on our segment operating income and consolidated net income for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008. Furthermore, although the fourth quarter is normally the strongest in terms of sales for our Life Insurance segment, we expect that those results will be muted in the fourth quarter. The markets impact primarily the following areas:

Earnings from Assets Under Management

Our asset-gathering segments: Retirement Solutions - Annuities; Retirement Solutions - Defined Contribution; and Investment Management; are sensitive to the equity markets. We discuss the earnings impact of the equity markets on account values, assets under management and the related asset-based fees below in "Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk - Equity Market Risk - Impact of Equity Market Sensitivity." From the end of 2007 to September 30, 2008, the daily average value of the Standard & Poor's ("S&P") 500 Indexฎ decreased 10%. Solely as a result of the equity markets, our assets under management as of September 30, 2008, were down $30.1 billion from the end of the prior year. Strong deposits over the last year have only helped to partially offset this impact for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008, compared to the same periods in 2007.

We have continued to experience unfavorable equity markets as the October 2008 daily average of the S&P 500 Indexฎ declined 17% from its value as of September 30, 2008, resulting in an approximate $18 billion decline in our assets under management. We expect our income from operations to be negatively impacted in our asset-gathering businesses from lower asset-based earnings and expect our net flows in these businesses to continue to be pressured from these unfavorable equity market conditions.

Investment Income on Alternative Investments

We believe that overall market conditions in both the equity and credit markets caused our alternative investments portfolio, which consists mostly of hedge funds and various limited partnership investments, to perform in line relative to our long-term expectations, but we expect these assets to under-perform, going forward, in the short term. This impact was primarily in our Insurance Solutions - Life Insurance, Retirement Solutions - Annuities and Retirement Solutions - Defined Contribution segments. See "Consolidated Investments - Alternative Investments" for additional information on our investment portfolio.


Variable Annuity Living Benefit Hedge Program Results

We offer variable annuity products with living benefit guarantees. These guarantees are considered embedded derivatives and are recorded on our Consolidated Balance Sheets at fair value under SFAS 133 and SFAS 157. Effective January 1, 2008, we adopted SFAS 157, which affected the valuation of our embedded derivatives. See Note 2 of this report for details on the adoption of SFAS 157. As described below in "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates - Derivatives - Guaranteed Living Benefits," we use derivative instruments to hedge our exposure to the risks and earnings volatility that result from the embedded derivatives for living benefits in certain of our variable annuity products. The change in fair value of these instruments tends to move in the opposite direction of the change in fair value of the embedded derivatives. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008, the market conditions noted above negatively affected the net result of the change in the fair value of the living benefit embedded derivative, excluding the effect of a change in our non-performance risk factor, and the change in fair value of the hedging derivatives. The change in our non-performance risk factor used in the calculation of the embedded derivative liability had a favorable effect resulting in an overall positive outcome. These results are excluded from operating revenues and income (loss) from operations.

Credit Losses, Impairments and Unrealized Losses

Related to our investments in fixed income and equity securities, we experienced net realized losses of $314 million and $480 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008, which included gross write-downs of securities for other-than-temporary impairments of $312 million and $523 million, respectively. Widening spreads was the primary cause of an increase in gross unrealized losses of $3.7 billion on investments in our general account for the nine months ended September 30, 2008, for our available-for-sale fixed maturity securities. These unrealized losses were concentrated in the investment grade category of investments and demonstrate how reduced liquidity in the credit markets have resulted in a decline in asset values as investors shift their investments to safer government securities, such as U.S. Treasuries.

The effect of the negative equity markets on our assets under management in the first nine months of 2008 will continue to dampen our earnings throughout 2008 even if, for the remainder of the year, the equity market returns are consistent with our long-term assumptions. Accordingly, we may continue to report lower asset-based fees relative to expectations or prior periods. The volatility and uncertainty in the capital markets will also likely result in lower than expected returns in the short term on alternative investments. In addition, continued weakness in the economic environment could lead to increased credit defaults, resulting in additional write-downs of securities for other-than-temporary impairments.

In the face of these capital market challenges, we continue to focus on building our businesses through these difficult markets and beyond by developing and introducing high quality products, expanding distribution in new and existing key accounts and channels and targeting market segments that have high growth potential while maintaining a disciplined approach to managing our expenses.

Capital Preservation

On October 10, 2008, the Board of Directors approved a decrease in the quarterly dividend to stockholders from $0.415 per share to $0.21 per share effective in 2009, which is expected to add approximately $50 million to capital each quarter. Additionally, we have suspended further stock repurchase activity. Both of these changes will favorably impact our capital position prospectively.

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

In reaction to the credit market illiquidity and global financial crisis experienced during September and October of 2008, Congress enacted the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 ("EESA") on October 3, 2008, in an effort to restore liquidity to the U.S. credit markets. The EESA defines financial institutions to include insurance companies. The EESA contains the Troubled Assets Relief Program ("TARP"). The TARP authorized the U.S. Treasury to purchase "troubled assets" (as defined in the TARP) from financial institutions, including insurance companies. Pursuant to the authority granted under the TARP, the U.S. Treasury also adopted the Capital Purchase Program. Under the Capital Purchase Program, as currently adopted, bank and thrift holding companies may apply to the U.S. Treasury for the direct sale of preferred stock and warrants to the U.S. Treasury. It remains unclear at this point, if and when the EESA will restore sustained liquidity and confidence in the markets and its affect on the fair value of our invested assets.


Strategic and Operational Review

Product development and strong distribution are important to our ability to meet the challenges of the competitive marketplace. In the third quarter of 2008, our Insurance Solutions - Life Insurance segment launched Lincoln AssetEdgeSM VUL, a variable life insurance product offering clients the ability to align their portfolio to match investment goals, while retaining the flexibility to change allocations as needs change. In February 2008, our Retirement Solutions - Annuities segment launched a new guaranteed withdrawal benefit ("GWB"), Lincoln Lifetime IncomeSM Advantage, which includes features such as: a reduced minimum age for lifetime income eligibility; a 5% benefit enhancement in each year an owner does not take a withdrawal; a health care benefit; and a guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit. Within the mid-sized market of our Retirement Solutions - Defined Contribution segment, in the first quarter we launched our Lincoln SmartFutureSM retirement program to fill the gap between our Alliance program and our group variable annuities.

In the third quarter we launched our new LINCOLN DIRECTORSM product that offers . . .

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