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AIG > SEC Filings for AIG > Form 10-Q on 10-Nov-2008All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC


10-Nov-2008

Quarterly Report


ITEM 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations is designed to provide the reader a narrative with respect to AIG's operations, financial condition and liquidity and certain other significant matters.

INDEX

Page

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING PROJECTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
ABOUT FUTURE EVENTS 47
CONSIDERATION OF AIG'S ABILITY TO CONTINUE AS A GOING CONCERN 49 LIQUIDITY EVENTS LEADING UP TO SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 49 LIQUIDITY RELATED ACTIONS AND PLANS TO STABILIZE 51 RISK FACTORS 56 RESULTS OF OPERATIONS 61
Consolidated Results 61 Segment Results 65 General Insurance Operations 65 Life Insurance & Retirement Services Operations 79 Financial Services Operations 98 Asset Management Operations 104 Other Operations 108
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES 108 CAPITAL RESOURCES AND LIQUIDITY 126
Liquidity 126 Borrowings 129 Shareholders' Equity 136
INVESTED ASSETS 137
Investment Strategy 138 Portfolio Review 144 Other-Than-Temporary Impairments 144 Unrealized gains and losses 148 RISK MANAGEMENT 149 Insurance, Asset Management and Non-Trading Financial Services Value at Risk (VaR) 150 Capital Markets Trading VaR 151

Cautionary Statement Regarding Projections and Other Information About Future Events

This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and other publicly available documents may include, and AIG's officers and representatives may from time to time make, projections concerning financial information and statements concerning future economic performance and events, plans and objectives relating to the establishment of special purpose vehicles with the NY Fed, asset dispositions, liquidity, collateral posting requirements, management, operations, products and services, and assumptions underlying these projections and statements. These projections and statements are not historical facts but instead represent only AIG's belief regarding future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside AIG's control. These projections and statements may address, among other things, the number, size, terms and timing of dispositions and their potential effect on AIG's businesses, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows and liquidity (and AIG at any time and from time to time may change its plans with respect to the sale of one or more businesses), the effect on AIG's liquidity of the establishment of two special purpose vehicles with the NY Fed, AIG's exposures to subprime mortgages, monoline insurers and the residential and commercial real estate markets and AIG's strategy for growth, product development, market position, financial results and reserves. It is possible that AIG's actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results and financial condition indicated in these projections and statements. Factors that could cause AIG's actual results to differ, possibly materially, from those in the specific projections and statements are discussed in Risk Factors, and throughout this Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A) and in Item 1A. Risk Factors of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and Item 1A. Risk Factors of AIG's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 (2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K). AIG is not under any obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligations) to update or alter any projection or other statement, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.


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In addition to reviewing AIG's results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008, this MD&A supplements and updates the information and discussion included in the 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K to reflect developments in or affecting AIG's business to date during 2008. Throughout this MD&A, AIG presents its operations in the way it believes will be most meaningful. Statutory loss ratios and combined ratios are presented in accordance with accounting principles prescribed by insurance regulatory authorities because these are standard measures of performance filed with insurance regulatory authorities and used for analysis in the insurance industry and thus allow more meaningful comparisons with AIG's insurance competitors. AIG also uses cross-references to additional information included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and in the 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K to assist readers seeking related information on a particular subject.


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Consideration of AIG's Ability to Continue as a Going Concern

In connection with the preparation of its third quarter Form 10-Q, management has assessed whether AIG has the ability to continue as a going concern. In making this assessment, AIG has considered:

• The liquidity events leading up to September 22, 2008;

• AIG's liquidity-related actions and plans to stabilize its businesses and repay the facility (Fed Facility) created pursuant to the $85 billion credit agreement, dated September 22, 2008 (Fed Credit Agreement), between AIG and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed);

• The negative effects of the liquidity events on AIG's businesses and AIG's efforts to address such effects; and

• The substantial risks to which AIG is subject.

Each of these items is discussed in more detail below.

In considering these items, management has made significant judgments and estimates with respect to the potentially adverse financial and liquidity effects of AIG's risks and uncertainties. Management has also assessed other items and risks arising in AIG's businesses and made reasonable judgments and estimates with respect thereto. After consideration, management believes that it will have adequate liquidity to finance and operate AIG's businesses and continue as a going concern for at least the next twelve months.

It is possible that the actual outcome of one or more of management's plans could be materially different or that one or more of management's significant judgments or estimates about the potential effects of the risks and uncertainties could be prove to be materially incorrect or that the principal transactions disclosed in Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements (and as discussed below) do not result in completed transactions. If one or more of these possible outcomes were realized, AIG may not have sufficient cash to meet its obligations. If AIG needs funds in excess of amounts available from the sources described below, AIG would need to find additional financing and, if such additional financing were to be unavailable, there could be substantial doubt about AIG's ability to continue as a going concern.

Liquidity Events Leading Up to September 22, 2008

Liquidity Entering the Third Quarter

AIG parent entered the third quarter of 2008 with $17.6 billion of cash and cash equivalents, including the remaining proceeds from the issuance of $20 billion of common stock, equity units, and junior subordinated debt securities in May 2008. In addition, AIG's securities lending collateral pool held $10.4 billion of cash and other short-term investments. On August 18, 2008, AIG raised $3.25 billion through the issuance of 8.25% Notes Due 2018.

Strategic Review and Proposed Liquidity Measures

From mid-July and throughout August 2008, AIG's then Chief Executive Officer, Robert Willumstad, was engaged in a review of AIG's businesses. Mr. Willumstad had announced that he would hold an investor meeting on September 25, 2008 to present the results of his review.

During this same time period, AIG was engaged in a review of measures to address the liquidity concerns in AIG's securities lending portfolio discussed in previous SEC filings and to address the ongoing collateral calls with respect to AIGFP's super senior multi-sector credit default swap portfolio. To facilitate this process, AIG asked a number of investment banking firms to discuss possible solutions to these issues. In late August, AIG engaged J.P. Morgan Securities, Inc. (J.P. Morgan) to assist in developing alternatives, including a potential additional capital raise.

Continuing Liquidity Pressures

Under AIG's securities lending program, cash collateral is received from borrowers and invested by AIG primarily in fixed maturity securities to earn a spread. Historically, AIG had received cash collateral from borrowers of 100-102 percent of the value of the loaned securities. In light of more favorable terms offered by other lenders of securities, AIG accepted cash advanced by borrowers of less than the 102 percent historically required by insurance regulators. Under an agreement with its insurance company subsidiaries participating in the securities lending program, AIG parent deposited collateral in an amount sufficient to address the deficit. AIG parent also deposited amounts into the collateral pool to offset losses realized by the pool in connection with sales of impaired securities. Aggregate deposits by AIG parent to or for the benefit of the securities lending collateral pool through August 31, 2008 totaled $3.3 billion.

In addition, from July 1, 2008 to August 31, 2008, the continuing decline in value of the super senior collateralized debt obligations (CDO) securities protected by AIGFP's super senior credit default swap portfolio, together with ratings downgrades of such CDO securities, resulted in AIGFP posting or agreeing to post collateral in an aggregate net amount of $6.0 billion.

By the beginning of September 2008, these collateral postings and securities lending requirements were placing increasing stress on AIG parent's liquidity.

Rating Agencies

In early September 2008, AIG met with the representatives of the principal rating agencies to discuss Mr. Willumstad's


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strategic review as well as the liquidity issues arising from AIG's securities lending program and AIGFP's super senior multi-sector CDO credit default swap portfolio. On Friday, September 12, 2008, S&P placed AIG on CreditWatch with negative implications and noted that upon completion of its review, the agency could affirm AIG parent's current rating of "AA-" or lower the rating by one to three notches. AIG understood that both S&P and Moody's would re-evaluate AIG's ratings early in the week of September 15, 2008. Also on Friday, September 12, 2008, AIG's subsidiaries ILFC and AGF were unable to replace all of their maturing commercial paper with new issuances of commercial paper. As a result, AIG advanced loans to these subsidiaries to meet their commercial paper obligations.

The Accelerated Capital Raise Attempt

As a result of S&P's action, AIG accelerated the process of attempting to raise additional capital and over the weekend of September 13 and 14, 2008 discussed potential capital injections and other liquidity measures with private equity firms, sovereign wealth funds and other potential investors. AIG kept the United States Treasury and the NY Fed informed of these efforts. AIG also engaged Blackstone Advisory Services LP to assist in developing alternatives, including a potential additional capital raise. Despite offering a number of different structures through this process, AIG did not receive a proposal it could act upon in a timely fashion. AIG's difficulty in this regard resulted in part from the dramatic decline in its common stock price from $22.76 on September 8, 2008 to $12.14 on September 12, 2008. This decrease in stock price made it unlikely that AIG would be able to raise the large amounts of capital that would be necessary if AIG's long-term debt rating were downgraded.

AIG Attempts to Enter into a Syndicated Secured Lending Facility

On Monday, September 15, 2008, AIG was again unable to access the commercial paper market for its primary commercial paper programs, AIG Funding, ILFC and AGF. Payments under the programs totaled $2.2 billion for the day, and AIG advanced loans to ILFC and AGF to meet their funding obligations. In addition, AIG experienced returns under its securities lending programs which led to cash payments of $5.2 billion to securities lending counterparties on that day.

On Monday morning, September 15, 2008, AIG met with representatives of Goldman, Sachs & Co., J.P. Morgan and the NY Fed to discuss the creation of a $75 billion secured lending facility to be syndicated among a number of large financial institutions. The facility was intended to act as a bridge loan to meet AIG parent's liquidity needs until AIG could sell sufficient assets to stabilize and enhance its liquidity position. Goldman, Sachs & Co. and J.P. Morgan immediately began the syndication attempt.

The Rating Agencies Downgrade AIG's Long-Term Debt Rating

In the late afternoon of September 15, 2008, S&P downgraded AIG's long-term debt rating by three notches, Moody's downgraded AIG's long-term debt rating by two notches and Fitch downgraded AIG's long-term debt rating by two notches. As a consequence of the rating actions, AIGFP estimated that it would need in excess of $20 billion in order to fund additional collateral demands and transaction termination payments in a short period of time. Subsequently, in a period of approximately 15 days following the rating actions, AIGFP was required to fund approximately $32 billion, reflecting not only the effect of the rating actions but also changes in market levels and other factors.

The Private Sector Solution Fails

By Tuesday morning, September 16, 2008, it had become apparent that Goldman, Sachs & Co. and J.P. Morgan were unable to syndicate a lending facility. Moreover, the downgrades combined with a steep drop in AIG's common stock price to $4.76 on September 15, 2008, had resulted in counterparties withholding payments from AIG and refusing to transact with AIG even on a secured short-term basis. As a result, AIG was unable to borrow in the short-term lending markets. To provide liquidity on Tuesday, September 16, 2008, both ILFC and AGF drew down on their revolving credit facilities, resulting in borrowings of approximately $6.5 billion and $4.6 billion, respectively.

Also, on September 16, 2008, AIG was notified by its insurance regulators that it would no longer be permitted to borrow funds from its insurance company subsidiaries under a revolving credit facility that AIG had maintained with certain of its insurance subsidiaries acting as lenders. Subsequently, the insurance regulators required AIG to repay any outstanding loans under that facility and to terminate it. The intercompany facility was terminated effective September 22, 2008.

Fed Credit Agreement

By early Tuesday afternoon on September 16, 2008, it was clear that AIG had no viable private sector solution to its liquidity crisis. At this point, AIG received the terms of a secured lending agreement that the NY Fed was prepared to provide. AIG estimated that it had an immediate need for cash in excess of its available liquid resources. That night, AIG's Board of Directors approved borrowing from the NY Fed based on a term sheet that set forth the terms of the secured credit agreement and related equity participation. Over the next six days, AIG elected Edward M. Liddy, Director, Chairman, and CEO, replacing Robert Willumstad in those positions, and negotiated a definitive credit agreement with the NY Fed and borrowed, on a secured basis, approximately


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$37 billion from the NY Fed before formally entering into the Fed Credit Agreement.

On September 22, 2008, AIG entered into the Fed Credit Agreement in the form of a two-year secured loan and a Guarantee and Pledge Agreement (the Pledge Agreement) with the NY Fed. See Notes 5 and 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information regarding the terms of and borrowings under the Fed Credit Agreement.

Borrowings outstanding and remaining available amount that can be borrowed under the Fed Facility were as follows:

                                                                           Inception          Inception
                                                                             Through            Through
                                                                       September 30,        November 5,
(in millions)                                                                   2008               2008

Borrowings:
Loans to AIGFP for collateral postings, GIA and other maturities       $      35,340         $   43,100
Capital contributions to insurance companies(a)                               13,341             13,687
Repayment of obligations to securities lending program                         3,160              3,160
AIG Funding commercial paper maturities                                        2,717              3,714
Repayment of intercompany loans                                                1,528              1,528
Contributions to AIGCFG subsidiaries                                           1,094              1,591
Debt repayments                                                                1,038              1,578
Other borrowings(a)                                                            2,782              8,642


Total borrowings                                                              61,000             77,000


Repayments:
Repayments not reducing available amounts                                          -             16,000  (b)
Repayments reducing available amounts                                              -                  -


Total repayments                                                                   -             16,000


Net borrowings                                                                61,000             61,000
Total Fed Facility                                                            85,000             85,000


Remaining available amount                                                    24,000             24,000


Net borrowings                                                                61,000             61,000
Paid in kind interest and fees                                                 1,960              1,960


Total balance outstanding                                              $      62,960         $   62,960

(a) Includes securities lending activities.
(b) Includes repayments due to funds received from the Fed Securities Lending Agreement and the CPFF.

Liquidity Related Actions and Plans

AIG's Strategy for Stabilization and Repayment of the Fed Facility

AIG has developed certain plans (described below), some of which have already been implemented, to provide stability to its businesses and to provide for the timely repayment of the Fed Facility; other plans are still being formulated.

Preferred Equity Investment by the United States Treasury Pursuant to TARP

On November 9, 2008, AIG and the United States Treasury agreed in principle to a transaction pursuant to which the United States Treasury will purchase from AIG $40 billion liquidation preference of newly issued perpetual preferred stock (Series D Preferred Shares) under TARP. The Series D Preferred Shares will be in addition to the Series C Preferred Stock that AIG is obligated to issue to the Trust in connection with the Fed Credit Agreement. AIG is required to use the net proceeds from the sale of the Series D Preferred Shares to repay a portion of the outstanding balance under the Fed Facility.

The Series D Preferred Shares will rank pari passu with the Series C Preferred Stock and senior to AIG's common stock. The Series D Preferred Shares will have limited class voting rights and will accumulate cumulative compounding dividends at a rate equal to 10 percent per annum. The dividends will be payable when, as and if declared by AIG's Board of Directors. AIG will not be able to declare or pay any dividends on AIG's common stock or on any AIG preferred stock ranking pari passu with or junior to the Series D Preferred Shares until dividends on the Series D Preferred Shares have been paid. AIG may redeem the Series D Preferred Shares at the stated liquidation preference, plus accumulated but unpaid dividends, at any time that the Trust or any successor entity beneficially owns less than 30 percent of AIG's voting securities and no holder of Series D Preferred Shares controls or has the potential to control AIG.

Pursuant to the agreement between AIG and the United States Treasury in connection with the Series D Preferred Shares, for as long as the United States Treasury owns any of the Series D Preferred Shares, AIG will be subject to restrictions on its ability to repurchase capital stock and will


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be required to adopt and maintain policies on corporate expenses, lobbying activities and executive compensation.

In connection with the issuance of the Series D Preferred Shares, AIG will also issue a 10-year warrant to the United States Treasury exercisable for a number of shares of common stock of AIG equal to two percent of the issued and outstanding shares of common stock on the date of the investment. In connection with the issuance of the warrant, the voting, conversion rights and dividend rights of the Series C Preferred Stock will be reduced from 79.9 percent to 77.9 percent. The warrant will be exercisable at any time and have an exercise price equal to the par value of AIG's common stock at the time of exercise. The United States Treasury has agreed that it will not exercise any voting rights with respect to the common stock issued upon exercise of the warrant. The warrant will not be subject to contractual transfer restrictions other than restrictions necessary to comply with U.S. federal and state securities laws. AIG will be obligated, at the request of the United States Treasury, to file a registration statement with respect to the warrant and the common stock for which the warrant can be exercised. During the 10-year term of the warrant, if the shares of common stock of AIG are no longer listed or trading on a national securities exchange, AIG may be obligated, at the direction of the United States Treasury, to exchange all or a portion of the warrant for another economic interest of AIG classified as permanent equity under U.S. GAAP with an equivalent fair value. If the Series D Preferred Shares issued in connection with the warrant are redeemed in whole, AIG may repurchase the warrant then held by the United States Treasury at any time for its fair value so long as no holder of a warrant controls or has the potential to control AIG. As a result of the issuance of the warrant, the number of shares into which the Series C Preferred Stock will be convertible will be reduced so as not to exceed 77.9 percent of the outstanding shares of common stock.

The Fed Securities Lending Program

On October 8, 2008, certain of AIG's domestic life insurance subsidiaries entered into the Fed Securities Lending Agreement, providing that the NY Fed will borrow, on an overnight basis, investment grade fixed maturity securities from these AIG subsidiaries in return for cash collateral. Prior to this arrangement, draw downs under the existing Fed Facility were used, in part, to settle securities lending transactions. The NY Fed has been borrowing securities under the Fed Securities Lending Agreement, which has allowed AIG to replenish liquidity in the securities lending program on an as-needed basis, while providing possession and control of these third-party securities to the NY Fed.

As of November 5, 2008, the total value of securities lending payables was $34.2 billion, with $19.9 billion of this amount payable to the NY Fed under this agreement. This program will be terminated on the closing of the RMBS sale as described below.

Transfer of RMBS by certain AIG Insurance Subsidiaries

AIG and the NY Fed expect to establish a facility under which approximately $40 billion principal amount of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) related to AIG's U.S. securities lending program will be transferred by certain AIG insurance subsidiaries to a newly-formed limited liability company (the RMBS
LLC) that will be financed by the NY Fed and AIG. Proceeds to the insurance company subsidiaries, together with other AIG funds, will be used to return all cash collateral posted by securities borrowers, including approximately $19.9 billion to be returned to the NY Fed. After all collateral is returned, AIG's U.S. Securities lending program will be terminated.

The aggregate proceeds to the AIG insurance subsidiaries will be equal to the estimated fair value of the RMBS at October 31, 2008, adjusted for collections and certain other events between such date and the closing date of the purchase, which is expected to be prior to November 30, 2008. At September 30, 2008, the fair value of the RMBS being transferred was $23.5 billion. AIG will provide $1 billion of proceeds to the AIG entities and the NY Fed will provide the remainder of the proceeds up to $22.5 billion.

Interest on both the NY Fed's senior loan and AIG's subordinated loan will be capitalized (converted to principal of the related loan instead of being paid in cash). Payments of interest on, and principal of, the RMBS and the net sale proceeds, if any, on the RMBS received by the RMBS LLC will be used to pay principal of the NY Fed's senior loan in full before any payments are made on AIG's subordinated loan. None of the obligations of RMBS LLC have recourse to AIG, although AIG's subordinated loan will be exposed to losses of the RMBS LLC up to $1 billion plus the amount of capitalized interest thereon. After the loans have returned amounts equal to their principal and capitalized interest, payments with respect to the remaining RMBS received by the RMBS LLC will be . . .

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