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Quotes & Info
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| HMN > SEC Filings for HMN > Form 10-Q on 7-Nov-2008 | All Recent SEC Filings |
7-Nov-2008
Quarterly Report
Forward-looking Information
Statements made in the following discussion that state the Company's or management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or predictions of future events or the Company's future financial performance are forward-looking statements and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Horace Mann is not under any obligation to (and expressly disclaims any such obligation to) update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. It is important to note that the Company's actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements due to, among other risks and uncertainties inherent in the Company's business, the following important factors:
• Changes in the composition of the Company's assets and liabilities which may result from occurrences such as acquisitions, divestitures, impairment in asset values or changes in estimates of insurance reserves.
• Fluctuations in the fair value of securities in the Company's investment portfolio and the related after-tax effect on the Company's shareholders' equity and total capital through either realized or unrealized investment losses, as well as the potential impact on the ability of the Company's insurance subsidiaries to distribute cash to the holding company and/or need for the holding company to make capital contributions to the insurance subsidiaries. In addition, the impact of fluctuations in the financial markets on the Company's defined benefit pension plan assets and the related after-tax effect on the Company's operating expenses, shareholders' equity and total capital.
• The impact of fluctuations in the financial markets on the Company's variable annuity fee revenues, valuations of deferred policy acquisition costs and value of acquired insurance in force, and the level of guaranteed minimum death benefit reserves.
• The impact of fluctuations in the capital markets on the Company's ability to refinance outstanding indebtedness or repurchase shares of the Company's common stock.
• Defaults on interest or dividend payments in the Company's investment portfolio due to credit issues and the resulting impact on investment income.
• Prevailing interest rate levels, including the impact of interest rates on
(1) unrealized gains and losses in the Company's investment portfolio and the
related after-tax effect on the Company's shareholders' equity and total
capital, (2) the book yield of the Company's investment portfolio, (3) the
Company's ability to maintain appropriate interest rate spreads over the
fixed rates guaranteed in the Company's life and annuity products and
(4) valuations of deferred policy acquisition costs and value of acquired
insurance in force.
• The cyclicality of the insurance industry and the related effects of changes in price competition and industry-wide underwriting results.
• The Company's risk exposure to catastrophe-prone areas. Based on full year 2007 property and casualty direct earned premiums, the Company's ten largest states represented 57% of the segment total. Included in this top ten group are certain states which are considered more prone to catastrophe occurrences: Florida, California, North Carolina, Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina and Georgia.
• The potential near-term, adverse impact of underwriting actions to mitigate the Company's risk exposure to catastrophe-prone areas on premium, policy and earnings growth.
• The ability of the Company to maintain a favorable catastrophe reinsurance program considering both availability and cost; and the collectibility of reinsurance receivables.
• Adverse development of property and casualty loss and loss adjustment expense reserve experience and its impact on estimated claims and claim settlement expenses for losses occurring in prior years.
• Adverse changes in business persistency, policyholder mortality and morbidity rates, interest spreads and market appreciation and the resulting impact on both estimated reserves and the valuations of deferred policy acquisition costs and value of acquired insurance in force.
• Changes in insurance regulations, including (1) those affecting the ability of the Company's insurance subsidiaries to distribute cash to the holding company and (2) those impacting the Company's ability to profitably write property and casualty insurance policies in one or more states.
• Changes in federal income tax laws and changes resulting from federal tax audits affecting corporate tax rates or taxable income.
• Changes in federal and state laws and regulations, which affect the relative tax and other advantages of the Company's life and annuity products to customers, including, but not limited to, changes in IRS regulations governing Section 403(b) plans.
• The resolution of legal proceedings and related matters including the potential adverse impact on the Company's reputation and charges against the Company's earnings resulting from legal defense costs, a settlement agreement and/or an adverse finding or findings against the Company from the proceedings.
• The Company's ability to maintain favorable claims-paying ability, financial strength and debt ratings.
• The Company's ability to profitably expand its property and casualty business in highly competitive environments.
• The competitive impact of the new Section 403(b) tax-qualified annuity regulations, including (1) their potential to lead plan sponsors to restrict the number of providers and (2) the possible entry into the 403(b) market of larger competitors experienced in 401(k) plans.
• The Company's dated and complex information systems, which are difficult to upgrade and more prone to error than advanced technology systems.
• Disruptions of the general business climate, investments, capital markets and consumer attitudes caused by pandemics or geopolitical acts such as terrorism, war or other similar events.
Executive Summary
Horace Mann Educators Corporation ("HMEC"; and together with its subsidiaries, the "Company" or "Horace Mann") is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, HMEC markets and underwrites personal lines of property and casualty insurance, retirement annuities and life insurance in the U.S. The Company markets its products primarily to K-12 educators and other employees of public schools and their families.
For the three months ended September 30, 2008, the Company had a net loss of $30.8 million, a decrease of $49.2 million compared to net income in the prior year, including a $37.2 million increase in after-tax net realized investment losses on securities and a $16.9 million increase in after-tax catastrophe costs. Consistent with industry experience, the current quarter reflected a significant level of hurricane and other weather-related catastrophe losses along with the continued adverse impacts of a challenging financial market environment and a slowing economy. The third quarter 2008 property and casualty segment net loss of $1.3 million was $11.7 million less than the prior year net income, reflecting a higher level of catastrophe losses partially offset by a higher amount of favorable prior years' reserve development in the current period. Net income for the annuity segment increased $1.1 million compared to the third quarter of 2007, as current period improvements in the interest margin were partially offset by the adverse impact of the financial markets on the level of contract charges earned. For the third quarter of 2008, the valuation of annuity deferred policy acquisition costs had a net positive impact on earnings. Life segment net income for the quarter decreased $1.1 million, with growth in earned premiums and investment income more than offset by higher mortality costs.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, the Company's net loss of $12.0 million represented a decrease of $76.8 million compared to net income reported for the prior year, including a $45.6 million reduction in after-tax net realized investment gains and losses. Catastrophe costs increased $30.1 million after tax and non-catastrophe weather-related losses also increased compared to the prior year. In addition, results in the current nine months were negatively impacted by a reduced level of favorable prior years' property and casualty reserve development. Including all factors, the property and casualty combined ratio was 103.3% for the first nine months of 2008 compared to 91.8% for the same period in 2007. Annuity segment net income increased $0.7 million, or 5%, compared to the first nine months of 2007, as current period improvements in the interest margin were partially offset by the adverse impact of the financial market on the level of contract charges earned. Life segment net income decreased $0.5 million, or 4%, compared to a year earlier, reflecting growth in investment income offset by higher mortality costs.
Premiums written and contract deposits declined 1% and 2%, compared to the three and nine months ended September 30, 2007, respectively, largely due to expected decreases in single premium annuity deposit receipts in 2008. For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, reduced costs associated with the Company's property and casualty catastrophe reinsurance program represented a $4.7 million increase in premiums written compared to 2007. New automobile sales units in the current period were 6% less than the first nine months of 2007, with third quarter sales improving sequentially compared to the first and second quarters of 2008. The year-to-date sales decrease was somewhat offset by favorable policy retention, resulting in voluntary automobile policies in force equal to September 30, 2007. However, automobile policies of educators increased 3% compared to a year earlier. Annuity contract deposits for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008 decreased 5% and 8%, respectively, compared to a year earlier, and life segment insurance premiums and contract deposits were comparable to the prior year.
Critical Accounting Policies
The preparation of consolidated financial statements in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") requires the Company's management to make estimates and assumptions based on information available at the time the consolidated financial statements are prepared. These estimates and assumptions affect the reported amounts of the Company's consolidated assets, liabilities, shareholders' equity and net income. Certain accounting estimates are particularly sensitive because of their significance to the Company's consolidated financial statements and because of the possibility that subsequent events and available information may differ markedly from management's judgements at the time the consolidated financial statements were prepared. Management has discussed with the Audit Committee the quality, not just the acceptability, of the Company's accounting principles as applied in its financial reporting. The discussions generally included such matters as the consistency of the Company's accounting policies and their application, and the clarity and completeness of the Company's consolidated financial statements, which include related disclosures. For the Company, the areas most subject to significant management judgements include: liabilities for property and casualty claims and claim settlement expenses, liabilities for future policy benefits, deferred policy acquisition costs, value of acquired insurance in force for annuity and interest-sensitive life products, valuation of investments and valuation of assets and liabilities related to the defined benefit pension plan.
Liabilities for Property and Casualty Claims and Claim Settlement Expenses
Underwriting results of the property and casualty segment are significantly influenced by estimates of the Company's ultimate liability for insured events. There is a high degree of uncertainty inherent in the estimates of ultimate losses underlying the liability for unpaid claims and claim settlement expenses. This inherent uncertainty is particularly significant for liability-related exposures due to the extended period, often many years, that transpires between a loss event, receipt of related claims data from policyholders and ultimate settlement of the claim. Reserves for property and casualty claims include provisions for payments to be made on reported claims ("case reserves"), claims incurred but not yet reported ("IBNR") and associated settlement expenses (together, "loss reserves"). The process by which these reserves are established requires reliance upon estimates based on known facts and on interpretations of circumstances, including the Company's experience with similar cases and historical trends involving claim payments and related patterns, pending levels of unpaid
claims and product mix, as well as other factors including court decisions, economic conditions and public attitudes.
Reserves are reestimated quarterly. Changes to reserves are recorded in the period in which development factor changes result in reserve reestimates. Detailed discussion of the process utilized to estimate loss reserves, risk factors considered and the impact of adjustments recorded during recent years is included in "Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 3 - Property and Casualty Unpaid Claims and Claim Expenses" of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007. Due to the nature of the Company's personal lines business, the Company has no exposure to claims for toxic waste cleanup, other environmental remediation or asbestos-related illnesses other than claims under homeowners insurance policies for environmentally related items such as mold.
Based on the Company's products and coverages, historical experience, and modeling of various actuarial methodologies used to develop reserve estimates, the Company estimates that the potential variability of the property and casualty loss reserves within a reasonable probability of other possible outcomes may be approximately plus or minus 6%, which equates to plus or minus approximately $13 million of net income based on reserves as of September 30, 2008. Although this evaluation reflects the most likely outcomes, it is possible the final outcome may fall below or above these estimates.
There are a number of assumptions involved in the determination of the Company's property and casualty loss reserves. Among the key factors affecting recorded loss reserves for both long-tail and short-tail related coverages, claim severity and claim frequency are of particular significance. Management estimates that a 2% change in claim severity or claim frequency for the most recent 36-month period is a reasonably likely scenario based on recent experience and would result in a change in the estimated loss reserves of between $6.0 million and $10.0 million for long-tail liability related exposures (automobile liability coverages) and between $3.0 million and $4.0 million for short-tail liability related exposures (homeowners and automobile physical damage coverages). Actual results may differ, depending on the magnitude and direction of the deviation.
The Company's loss and loss adjustment expense actuarial analysis is discussed with management. As part of this discussion, the indicated point estimate of the IBNR loss reserve by line of business (coverage) is reviewed. The Company actuaries also discuss any indicated changes to the underlying assumptions used to calculate the indicated point estimate. Review of the variance between the indicated reserves from these changes in assumptions and the previously carried reserves takes place. After discussion of these analyses and all relevant risk factors, management determines whether the reserve balances require adjustment. The Company's best estimate of loss reserves may change depending on a revision in the underlying assumptions.
The Company's liabilities for property and casualty unpaid claims and claim settlement expenses were as follows:
September 30, 2008 December 31, 2007
Case IBNR Case IBNR
Reserves Reserves Total (1) Reserves Reserves Total (1)
Automobile liability $ 74.1 $ 134.4 $ 208.5 $ 77.3 $ 135.4 $ 212.7
Automobile other 4.5 1.8 6.3 6.7 0.8 7.5
Homeowners 27.5 48.2 75.7 14.0 36.2 50.2
All other 4.4 27.0 31.4 3.5 32.3 35.8
Total $ 110.5 $ 211.4 $ 321.9 $ 101.5 $ 204.7 $ 306.2
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(1) These amounts are gross, before reduction for ceded reinsurance reserves.
The facts and circumstances leading to the Company's reestimate of reserves relate to revisions of the development factors used to predict how losses are likely to develop from the end of a reporting period until all claims have been paid. Reestimates occur because actual loss amounts are different than those predicted by the estimated development factors used in prior reserve estimates. At September 30, 2008, the impact of a reserve reestimation resulting in a 1% increase in net reserves would be a decrease of approximately $2 million in net income. A reserve reestimation resulting in a 1% decrease in net reserves would increase net income by approximately $2 million.
Favorable reserve reestimates increased net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 by approximately $7.4 million, primarily the result of favorable trends in voluntary automobile loss and loss adjustment expense emergence for accident years 2005 and prior. The lower than expected claims and expense emergence and resultant lower expected loss ratios caused the Company to lower its reserve estimate.
Information regarding the Company's property and casualty claims and claims settlement expense reserve development table as of December 31, 2007 is located in "Business - Property and Casualty Segment - Property and Casualty Reserves" of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007.
Liabilities for Future Policy Benefits
Liabilities for future benefits on life and annuity policies are established in amounts adequate to meet the estimated future obligations on policies in force. Liabilities for future policy benefits on certain life insurance policies are computed using the net level premium method and are based on assumptions as to future investment yield, mortality and withdrawals. Mortality and withdrawal assumptions for all policies have been based on actuarial tables which are consistent with the Company's own experience. In the event actual experience is worse than the assumptions, additional reserves may be required. This would result in a charge to income for the period in which the increase in reserves occurred. Liabilities for future benefits on annuity contracts and certain long-duration life insurance contracts are carried at accumulated policyholder values without reduction for potential surrender or withdrawal charges.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs and Value of Acquired Insurance in Force for Annuity and Interest-sensitive Life Products
Policy acquisition costs, consisting of commissions, policy issuance and other costs, which vary with and are primarily related to the production of business, are capitalized and amortized on a basis consistent with the type of insurance coverage. For all investment (annuity) contracts, acquisition costs, and also the value of annuity business acquired in the 1989 acquisition of the Company ("Annuity VIF"), are amortized over 20 years in proportion to estimated gross profits. Capitalized acquisition costs for interest-sensitive life contracts are also amortized over 20 years in proportion to estimated gross profits.
The most significant assumptions that are involved in the estimation of annuity gross profits include interest rate spreads, future financial market performance, business surrender/lapse rates, expenses and the impact of realized investment gains and losses. For the variable deposit portion of the annuity segment, the Company amortizes policy acquisition costs and the Annuity VIF utilizing a future financial market performance assumption of a 10% reversion to the mean approach with a 200 basis point corridor around the mean. At September 30, 2008, the ratio of capitalized annuity policy acquisition costs and the Annuity VIF asset to the total annuity accumulated cash value was approximately 5%.
In the event actual experience differs significantly from assumptions or assumptions are significantly revised, the Company may be required to record a material charge or credit to amortization expense for the period in which the adjustment is made. As noted above, there are key assumptions involved in the valuation of capitalized policy acquisition costs and the Annuity VIF. In terms of the sensitivity of this amortization to two of the more significant assumptions, assuming all other assumptions are met, (1) a 10 basis point deviation in the annual targeted interest rate spread assumption would currently impact amortization between $0.15 million and $0.25 million and (2) a 1% deviation from the targeted financial market performance for the underlying mutual funds of the Company's variable annuities would currently impact amortization between $0.15 million and $0.25 million. These results may change depending on the magnitude and direction of the deviations but represent a range of reasonably likely experience for the noted assumptions. Detailed discussion of the impact of adjustments to the amortization of capitalized acquisition costs and Annuity VIF is included in "Results of Operations - Amortization of Policy Acquisition Expenses and Intangible Assets".
Valuation of Investments
Market valuations for the fixed maturity and equity securities portfolio are based on observable market quotations as well as prices provided by the Company's custodian bank and its investment managers. Both the custodian bank and the investment managers use a variety of pricing sources to determine market valuations. Each designate specific pricing services or indexes for each sector of the market based upon the provider's expertise. Broker-dealers are also used to price certain types of securities. The broker-dealers' valuation methodology is sometimes matrix-based, using indicative evaluation measures and adjustments for specific security characteristics and market sentiment. The Company analyzes market valuations received to verify reasonableness and to understand the key assumptions used and their sources. The Company's fixed maturity securities portfolio is highly liquid, which allows for a high percentage of the portfolio to be priced through pricing services. Approximately 95% of the portfolio was priced through pricing services or index priced as of September 30, 2008. The remainder of the portfolio was priced by broker-dealers.
The Company's methodology of assessing other-than-temporary impairments is based on security-specific facts and circumstances as of the date of the reporting period. Based on these facts, if management believes it is probable that amounts due will not be collected according to the contractual terms of a debt security, or if the Company does not have the ability and intent to hold a debt or equity security with an unrealized loss until it matures or recovers in value, an other-than-temporary impairment is considered to have occurred. As a general rule, if the fair value of a debt security has fallen below 80% of book value, this security will be reviewed for an other-than-temporary impairment. Also as a general rule, if the fair value of an equity security has declined below cost, this security will be reviewed for an other-than-temporary impairment including an assessment of whether recovery in fair value is likely to occur within a reasonable period of time. Additionally, if events become known that call into question whether the security issuer has the ability to honor its contractual commitments, whether or not such security has been trading above an 80% fair value to book value relationship, such security holding will be evaluated to determine whether or not such security has suffered an other-than-temporary decline in value.
The Company reviews the fair value of all investments in its portfolio on a
monthly basis to assess whether an other-than-temporary decline in value has
occurred. These reviews, in conjunction with the Company's investment managers'
monthly credit reports and relevant factors such as (1) the financial condition
and near-term prospects of the issuer, (2) the length of time and extent to
which the fair value has been less than amortized cost for fixed maturity
securities or cost for equity securities, (3) the Company's ability and intent
to retain the investment long enough to allow for the anticipated recovery in
fair value or until it matures, (4) the stock price trend of the issuer, (5) the
market leadership position of the issuer, (6) the debt ratings of the issuer and
(7) the cash flows of the issuer, are all considered in the impairment
assessment. A write-down of an investment is recorded when a decline in the fair
value of that investment is deemed to be other-than-temporary, with a realized
investment loss charged to income for the period.
With respect to fixed income securities involving securitized financial assets - primarily asset backed and commercial mortgage backed securities in the . . .
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