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| AFL > SEC Filings for AFL > Form 10-Q on 7-Nov-2008 | All Recent SEC Filings |
7-Nov-2008
Quarterly Report
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor"
to encourage companies to provide prospective information, so long as those
informational statements are identified as forward-looking and are accompanied
by meaningful cautionary statements identifying important factors that could
cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the
forward-looking statements. We desire to take advantage of these provisions.
This report contains cautionary statements identifying important factors that
could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected herein, and
in any other statements made by Company officials in communications with the
financial community and contained in documents filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC). Forward-looking statements are not based on
historical information and relate to future operations, strategies, financial
results or other developments. Furthermore, forward-looking information is
subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties. In particular,
statements containing words such as "expect," "anticipate," "believe," "goal,"
"objective," "may," "should," "estimate," "intends," "projects," "will,"
"assumes," "potential," "target" or similar words as well as specific
projections of future results, generally qualify as forward-looking. Aflac
undertakes no obligation to update such forward-looking statements.
We caution readers that the following factors, in addition to other factors
mentioned from time to time, could cause actual results to differ materially
from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements:
• legislative and regulatory developments, including changes to health care
and health insurance delivery
• assessments for insurance company insolvencies
• competitive conditions in the United States and Japan
• new product development and customer response to new products and new marketing initiatives
• ability to attract and retain qualified sales associates and employees
• ability to repatriate profits from Japan
• changes in U.S. and/or Japanese tax laws or accounting requirements
• credit and other risks associated with Aflac's investment activities
• significant changes in investment yield rates
• fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates
• deviations in actual experience from pricing and reserving assumptions including, but not limited to, morbidity, mortality, persistency, expenses, and investment yields
• level and outcome of litigation
• downgrades in the Company's credit rating
• changes in rating agency policies or practices
• subsidiary's ability to pay dividends to Parent Company
• ineffectiveness of hedging strategies
• catastrophic events
• general economic conditions in the United States and Japan, including increased uncertainty in the U.S. and international financial markets
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Aflac Incorporated (the Parent Company) and its subsidiaries (collectively,
the Company) primarily sell supplemental health and life insurance in the United
States and Japan. The Company's insurance business is marketed and administered
through American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus (Aflac), which
operates in the United States (Aflac U.S.) and as a branch in Japan (Aflac
Japan). Most of Aflac's policies are individually underwritten and marketed
through independent agents. Our insurance operations in the United States and
our branch in Japan service the two markets for our insurance business.
Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of
Operations (MD&A) is intended to inform the reader about matters affecting the
financial condition and results of operations of Aflac Incorporated and its
subsidiaries for the period from December 31, 2007, to September 30, 2008. As a
result, the following discussion should be read in conjunction with the
consolidated financial statements and notes that are included in our annual
report to shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2007.
This MD&A is divided into four primary sections. In the first section, we
discuss our critical accounting estimates. We then follow with a discussion of
the results of our operations on a consolidated basis and by segment. The third
section presents an analysis of our financial condition as well as a discussion
of market risks of financial instruments. We conclude by addressing the
availability of capital and the sources and uses of cash in the Capital
Resources and Liquidity section.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
We prepare our financial statements in accordance with U.S. generally
accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The preparation of financial statements
in conformity with GAAP requires us to make estimates based on currently
available information when recording transactions resulting from business
operations. The estimates that we deem to be most critical to an understanding
of Aflac's results of operations and financial condition are those related to
investments, deferred policy acquisition costs and policy liabilities. The
preparation and evaluation of these critical accounting estimates involve the
use of various assumptions developed from management's analyses and judgments.
The application of these critical accounting estimates determines the values at
which 97% of our assets and 86% of our liabilities are reported and thus have a
direct effect on net earnings and shareholders' equity. Subsequent experience or
use of other assumptions could produce significantly different results.
In 2007, our unpaid policy claims liability for prior years declined by
approximately $400 million. More than 70% of the release of our unpaid policy
claims liability resulted from incurred but not reported claims that are
estimated using a claim cost and completion factor method. During the first
12 months after a claim is incurred, we estimate the ultimate cost of the claim
based on initial expected claim cost factors that reflect our experience in
prior periods. In the thirteenth month after incurral, we change the estimating
basis to a completion factor method because the actual cash payments to date for
claims 13 or more months old are deemed to have sufficient credibility on which
to base the remaining liability estimate. Prior to the thirteenth month, the
historical claim cost method is deemed to have more credibility. The difference
in estimate between the two methods is routinely recognized in our financial
statements in the thirteenth month after a claim is incurred.
For the past several years, we have experienced a downward trend in our
current period hospitalization claim costs, primarily in Japan. For this reason,
our claim cost estimate as of
December 31, 2006, was high. Redundancy or insufficiency is initially recognized
when the claims reach the thirteenth month after incurral. More than 75% of the
2007 release of prior period claim liability was related to claims incurred in
2006. The remainder was related to claims incurred prior to 2006.
If the downward trend in hospital claim costs continues, we will expect to
see a release in the unpaid policy claims liability for prior years during 2008
that is similar to what we experienced in 2007. However, if claim trends
stabilize or deteriorate, then the unpaid policy claims liability for prior
years could have a much smaller release or an increase.
There have been no changes in the items that we have identified as critical
accounting estimates during the nine months ended September 30, 2008. For
additional information, see the Critical Accounting Estimates section of MD&A
included in our annual report to shareholders for the year ended December 31,
2007.
New Accounting Pronouncements
For information on new accounting pronouncements and the impact, if any, on
our financial position or results of operations, see Note 1 of the Notes to the
Consolidated Financial Statements.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following table is a presentation of items impacting net earnings and net
earnings per diluted share.
Items Impacting Net Earnings
Three Months Ended September 30, Nine Months Ended September 30,
2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007
In Millions Per Diluted Share In Millions Per Diluted Share
Net earnings $ 100 $ 420 $ .21 $ .85 $ 1,057 $ 1,251 $ 2.19 $ 2.53
Items impacting
net earnings,
net of tax:
Realized
investment gains
(losses) (389 ) 1 (.81 ) - (394 ) 18 (.82 ) .04
Impact from SFAS
133 (4 ) 2 - - (4 ) 1 - -
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Realized Investment Gains and Losses
Our investment strategy is to invest in fixed-income securities in order to
provide a reliable stream of investment income, which is one of the drivers of
the Company's profitability. We do not purchase securities with the intent of
generating capital gains or losses. However, investment gains and losses may be
realized as a result of changes in the financial markets and the
creditworthiness of specific issuers, tax planning strategies, and/or general
portfolio maintenance and rebalancing. The realization of investment gains and
losses is independent of the underwriting and administration of our insurance
products, which are the principal drivers of our profitability. Realized
investment losses during the three months ended September 30, 2008, of
$597 million ($389 million after tax) included $303 million ($198 million after
tax) related to a decision to sell our investments in Lehman Brothers and
Washington Mutual and impair our investment in Ford Motor Company in addition to
other smaller securities transactions during the quarter. We also impaired
investments in certain of our perpetual debentures, or so-called "hybrid
securities," which accounted for the remaining realized investment losses during
the period of $294 million ($191 million after tax). Realized investment gains
in the first nine months of 2007 primarily resulted from securities sold or
redeemed in the normal course of business.
As disclosed in our Form 10-K, we maintain an investment portfolio of
subordinated perpetual debentures. These securities are subordinated to other
debt obligations of the issuer, but rank higher than the issuers' equity
securities. Perpetual debentures have characteristics of both debt and equity
investments, along with unique features that create economic maturity dates of
the securities. Although these securities have no contractual maturity date,
they have stated interest coupons that were fixed at their issuance and
subsequently change to a floating short-term rate of interest of 125 to more
than 300 basis points above an appropriate market index, generally by the 25th
year after issuance. We believe this interest step-up penalty has the effect of
creating an economic maturity date of the perpetual debentures. Since first
purchasing these securities in 1993, we have accounted for and reported
perpetual debentures as debt securities and have classified them as both
available-for-sale and held-to-maturity securities.
In light of the recent unprecedented volatility in the debt and equity
markets, we have concluded that all of our perpetual debentures should be
classified as available-for-sale securities. We have also concluded that our
perpetual debentures should be evaluated for other-than-temporary
impairments using an equity security impairment model as opposed to our previous
policy of using a debt security impairment model. The after-tax charge of
$191 million in the third quarter of 2008 reflects the impact of applying our
equity security impairment policy to this asset class through June 30, 2008. The
June 30 valuation date was used following the SEC's letter to the Financial
Accounting Standards Board (FASB) on the topic of the appropriate impairment
model to apply to hybrid securities. In its letter dated October 14, 2008, the
SEC stated that, given the debt characteristics of hybrid securities, a debt
impairment model could be used for filings subsequent to October 14, 2008, until
the FASB further addresses the appropriate impairment approach.
The impact of classifying all of our perpetual debentures as
available-for-sale securities and assessing them for other-than-temporary
impairments under our equity security impairment model was determined to be
immaterial to our results of operations and financial position for any
previously reported period. As of September 30, 2008, approximately 92% of our
perpetual debentures were rated A or better, and the fair value of our perpetual
debenture portfolio was approximately 94% of book value.
Impact from SFAS 133
We entered into cross-currency swap agreements to effectively convert our
dollar-denominated senior notes, which mature in 2009, into a yen-denominated
obligation. SFAS No. 133, Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging
Activities, as amended (SFAS 133), requires that the change in the fair value of
the interest rate component of the cross-currency swaps, which does not qualify
for hedge accounting, be reflected in net earnings (other income). The impact
from SFAS 133 includes the change in fair value of the interest rate component
of the cross-currency swaps, which does not qualify for hedge accounting.
We have also issued yen-denominated Samurai and Uridashi notes. We have
designated these notes as a hedge of our investment in Aflac Japan. If the value
of these yen-denominated notes and the notional amounts of the cross-currency
swaps exceed our investment in Aflac Japan, we would be required to recognize
the foreign currency effect on the excess, or ineffective portion, in net
earnings (other income). The ineffective portion would be included in the impact
from SFAS 133. These hedges were effective during the nine-month period ended
September 30, 2008; therefore, there was no impact on net earnings.
We have entered into interest-rate swap agreements related to the 20 billion
yen variable interest rate Uridashi notes and have designated the swap
agreements as a hedge of the variability of the debt cash flows. The notional
amounts and terms of the swaps match the principal amount and terms of the
variable interest rate Uridashi notes, and the swaps had no value at inception.
SFAS 133 requires that the change in the fair value of the swap contracts be
recorded in other comprehensive income so long as the hedge is deemed effective.
Any ineffectiveness would be recognized in net earnings (other income) and would
be included in the impact from SFAS 133. These hedges were effective during the
nine-month periods ended September 30, 2008 and 2007; therefore, there was no
impact on net earnings.
For additional information, see the Impact from SFAS 133 section of MD&A and
Notes 4 and 7 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements in our
annual report to shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2007.
Foreign Currency Translation
Aflac Japan's premiums and most of its investment income are received in yen.
Claims and expenses are paid in yen, and we primarily purchase yen-denominated
assets to support yen-denominated policy liabilities. These and other
yen-denominated financial statement items are translated into dollars for
financial reporting purposes. We translate Aflac Japan's yen-denominated income
statement into dollars using an average exchange rate for the reporting period,
and we translate its yen-denominated balance sheet using the exchange rate at
the end of the period. However, it is important to distinguish between
translating and converting foreign currency. Except for a limited number of
transactions, we do not actually convert yen into dollars.
Due to the size of Aflac Japan, where our functional currency is the Japanese
yen, fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate can have a significant effect
on our reported results. In periods when the yen weakens, translating yen into
dollars results in fewer dollars being reported. When the yen strengthens,
translating yen into dollars results in more dollars being reported.
Consequently, yen weakening has the effect of suppressing current period results
in relation to the comparable prior period, while yen strengthening has the
effect of magnifying current period results in relation to the comparable prior
period. As a result, we view foreign currency translation as a financial
reporting issue for Aflac and not an economic event to our Company or
shareholders. Because changes in exchange rates distort the growth rates of our
operations, management evaluates Aflac's financial performance, excluding the
impact of foreign currency translation.
Income Taxes
Our combined U.S. and Japanese effective income tax rate on pretax earnings
was 34.5% for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2008, compared with
34.6% for the same period in 2007.
Earnings Guidance
We communicate earnings guidance in this report based on the growth in net
earnings per diluted share. However, certain items that cannot be predicted or
that are outside of management's control may have a significant impact on actual
results. Therefore, our comparison of net earnings includes certain assumptions
to reflect the limitations that are inherent in projections of net earnings. In
comparing period-over-period results, we exclude the effect of realized
investment gains and losses, the impact from SFAS 133 and nonrecurring items. We
also assume no impact from foreign currency translation on the Aflac Japan
segment and the Parent Company's yen-denominated interest expense for a given
period in relation to the prior period.
Subject to the preceding assumptions, our objective for 2008 is to increase
net earnings per diluted share by 15% over 2007. If we achieve this objective,
the following table shows the likely results for 2008 net earnings per diluted
share, including the impact of foreign currency translation using various
yen/dollar exchange rate scenarios.
2008 Net Earnings Per Share (EPS) Scenarios*
Weighted-Average
Yen/Dollar Net Earnings Per % Growth Yen Impact
Exchange Rate Diluted Share Over 2007 on EPS
100.00 $ 4.09 25.1 % $ .33
105.00 3.98 21.7 .22
110.00 3.89 19.0 .13
115.00 3.81 16.5 .05
117.93 ** 3.76 15.0 -
120.00 3.73 14.1 (.03 )
125.00 3.66 11.9 (.10 )
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* Excludes realized investment gains/losses, impact from SFAS 133 and nonrecurring items in 2008 and 2007
** Actual 2007
weighted-average
exchange rate
Our objective for 2009 is to increase net earnings per diluted share by 13%
to 15%, on the basis described above.
AFLAC JAPAN SEGMENT
Aflac Japan Pretax Operating Earnings
Changes in Aflac Japan's pretax operating earnings and profit margins are
primarily affected by morbidity, mortality, expenses, persistency, and
investment yields. The following table presents a summary of operating results
for Aflac Japan.
Aflac Japan Summary of Operating Results
Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30,
(In millions) 2008 2007 2008 2007
Premium income $ 2,569 $ 2,266 $ 7,774 $ 6,651
Net investment income:
Yen-denominated investment income 317 278 954 812
Dollar-denominated investment income 187 178 554 523
Net investment income 504 456 1,508 1,335
Other income 4 - 17 18
Total operating revenues 3,077 2,722 9,299 8,004
Benefits and claims 1,914 1,735 5,783 5,103
Operating expenses:
Amortization of deferred policy
acquisition costs 93 75 289 225
Insurance commissions 234 212 711 629
Insurance and other expenses 273 232 826 654
Total operating expenses 600 519 1,826 1,508
Total benefits and expenses 2,514 2,254 7,609 6,611
Pretax operating earnings* $ 563 $ 468 $ 1,690 $ 1,393
Weighted-average yen/dollar exchange rate 107.70 117.88 105.75 119.37
In Dollars In Yen
Three Months Nine Months Three Months Nine Months
Ended Ended Ended Ended
Percentage change over September 30, September 30, September 30, September 30,
previous period: 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007
Premium income 13.3 % 2.8 % 16.9 % 1.4 % 3.6 % 4.2 % 3.6 % 4.5 %
Net investment income 10.4 6.2 12.9 5.9 .9 7.7 .1 9.1
Total operating revenues 13.1 3.0 16.2 2.1 3.3 4.3 3.0 5.2
Pretax operating earnings* 20.5 15.0 21.3 10.2 10.1 16.7 7.5 13.6
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* See the Insurance Operations section of this MD&A for our definition of segment operating earnings. The percentage increases in premium income reflect the growth of premiums in force. Annualized premiums in force in yen increased 3.3% to 1.15 trillion yen as of September 30, 2008, compared with 1.12 trillion yen a year ago, and reflect the high persistency of Aflac Japan's business and the sales of new policies. Annualized premiums in force, translated into dollars at respective period-end exchange rates, were $11.1 billion at September 30, 2008, compared with $9.7 billion a year ago.
Aflac Japan maintains a portfolio of dollar-denominated and reverse-dual
currency securities (yen-denominated debt securities with dollar coupon
payments). Dollar-denominated investment income from these assets accounted for
approximately 37% of Aflac Japan's investment income in the first nine months of
2008, compared with 39% a year ago. In periods when the yen strengthens in
relation to the dollar, translating Aflac Japan's dollar-denominated investment
income into yen lowers growth rates for net investment income, total operating
revenues, and pretax operating earnings in yen terms. In periods when the yen
weakens, translating dollar-denominated investment income into yen magnifies
growth rates for net investment income, total operating revenues, and pretax
operating earnings in yen terms. On a constant currency basis,
dollar-denominated investment income accounted for approximately 40% of Aflac
Japan's investment income during the first nine months of 2008. The following
table illustrates the effect of translating Aflac Japan's dollar-denominated
investment income and related items into yen by comparing certain segment
results with those that would have been reported had yen/dollar exchange rates
remained unchanged from the comparable period in the prior year.
Aflac Japan Percentage Changes Over Previous Period
. . .
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