MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
OF RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION
INTRODUCTION
Management's discussion and analysis of results of operations and financial
condition ("MD&A") is provided as a supplement to the accompanying consolidated
financial statements and notes to help provide an understanding of Time Warner
Inc.'s ("Time Warner" or the "Company") financial condition, cash flows and
results of operations. MD&A is organized as follows:
• Overview. This section provides a general description of Time Warner's
business segments, as well as recent developments the Company believes are
important in understanding the results of operations and financial condition
or in understanding anticipated future trends.
• Results of operations. This section provides an analysis of the Company's
results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30,
2008. This analysis is presented on both a consolidated and a business
segment basis. In addition, a brief description is provided of significant
transactions and events that impact the comparability of the results being
analyzed.
• Financial condition and liquidity. This section provides an analysis of the
Company's financial condition as of September 30, 2008 and cash flows for
the nine months ended September 30, 2008.
• Caution concerning forward-looking statements. This section provides a
description of the use of forward-looking information appearing in this
report, including in MD&A and the consolidated financial statements. Such
information is based on management's current expectations about future
events, which are inherently susceptible to uncertainty and changes in
circumstances. Refer to the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the
year ended December 31, 2007 (the "2007 Form 10-K") and the Company's
Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 (the
"June 2008 Form 10-Q") for a discussion of the risk factors applicable to
the Company.
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OVERVIEW
Time Warner is a leading media and entertainment company, whose major
businesses encompass an array of the most respected and successful media brands.
Among the Company's brands are HBO, TNT, CNN, AOL, People, Sports Illustrated,
Time and Time Warner Cable. The Company produces and distributes films through
Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema, including The Dark Knight, Sex and the City,
Get Smart, Journey to the Center of the Earth and the Harry Potter films, as
well as television series, including Two and a Half Men, Without a Trace, Cold
Case, The Closer and ER. During the nine months ended September 30, 2008, the
Company generated revenues of $34.678 billion (up 2% from $33.840 billion in
2007), Operating Income of $6.229 billion (down 6% from $6.606 billion in 2007),
Net Income of $2.630 billion (down 22% from $3.356 billion in 2007) and Cash
Provided by Operations of $8.094 billion (up 31% from $6.156 billion in 2007).
As discussed more fully in "Business Segment Results," the nine months ended
September 30, 2007 included the impact of an approximate $668 million gain on
the sale of AOL's German access business.
Impact of the Current Economic Environment
The recent events affecting the U.S. and international financial markets have
had a significant and adverse impact on the broader global economies. These
events have served to severely tighten the credit markets, increase equity
market volatility and reduce future expectations for economic growth.
Despite the current economic environment, the Company believes it continues
to have strong liquidity to meet its needs for the foreseeable future. At
September 30, 2008, the Company had $17.997 billion of unused committed
capacity, including cash and equivalents and credit facilities containing
commitments from a geographically diverse group of major financial institutions,
with $5.393 billion at Time Warner and $12.604 billion at Time Warner Cable Inc.
(together with its subsidiaries, "TWC"), $10.855 billion of which TWC expects to
use to finance the Special Dividend, as defined below. The only significant
portion of the Company's debt that is due before December 31, 2010 is
$2.000 billion of floating rate public debt that matures on November 13, 2009.
While the Company believes it has sufficient total committed capacity and access
to capital markets, any new borrowings in the near term outside of the Company's
committed capacity would likely bear significantly higher interest rates than
those on the Company's recent borrowings. See "Financial Condition and
Liquidity" for further details regarding the Company's total committed capacity.
The current economic conditions are also having an adverse effect on the
advertising performance of the Company's Publishing, AOL and Cable segments.
While demand for advertising at the Networks segment has been strong, a
protracted economic downturn may negatively impact that segment's Advertising
revenue as well. Since the end of the third quarter of 2008, the Cable segment
has seen a slowdown in growth across all revenue generating unit categories as a
result of the challenging economic environment. In the event of a protracted
economic downturn, the Company also faces the risk of reduced consumer
discretionary spending on packaged media, including home video (e.g., DVD) and
game products.
Time Warner Businesses
Time Warner classifies its operations into five reportable segments: AOL,
Cable, Filmed Entertainment, Networks and Publishing.
Time Warner evaluates the performance and operational strength of its
business segments based on several factors, of which the primary financial
measure is operating income before depreciation of tangible assets and
amortization of intangible assets ("Operating Income before Depreciation and
Amortization"). Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization eliminates
the uneven effects across all business segments of considerable amounts of
noncash depreciation of tangible assets and amortization of certain intangible
assets, primarily recognized in business combinations. Operating Income before
Depreciation and Amortization should be considered in addition to Operating
Income, as well as other measures of financial performance. Accordingly, the
discussion of the results of operations for each of Time Warner's business
segments includes both Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization and
Operating Income. For additional information regarding Time Warner's business
segments, refer to Note 10, "Segment Information."
AOL. AOL LLC (together with its subsidiaries, "AOL") operates a Global Web
Services business that provides online advertising services worldwide on both
the AOL Network and third-party Internet sites, referred to as the "Third Party
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Network." AOL's Global Web Services business also develops and operates the AOL
Network, a leading network of web brands and free client software and services
for Internet consumers. In addition, through its Access Services business, AOL
operates one of the largest Internet access subscription services in the United
States. As of September 30, 2008, AOL had 7.5 million AOL brand Internet access
subscribers in the U.S., which does not include registrations for free AOL
services. For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, AOL generated revenues
of $3.197 billion (9% of the Company's overall revenues), $1.144 billion in
Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization and $782 million in
Operating Income.
AOL's strategy has been to transition from a business that has relied heavily
on Subscription revenues from dial-up subscribers to one that attracts and
engages more Internet users and takes advantage of the growth in online
advertising by providing advertising services on both the AOL Network and the
Third Party Network. AOL's focus is on growing its Global Web Services business,
while managing costs in this business, as well as managing its declining
subscriber base and costs in its Access Services business. On February 6, 2008,
the Company announced that it had begun separating the AOL Access Services and
Global Web Services businesses, which should enhance the operational focus and
strategic options available for each of these businesses. The Company
anticipates that it will be in a position to manage AOL's Access Services and
Global Web Services businesses separately in 2009.
Within its Global Web Services business, in 2007 AOL formed a business group
called Platform-A, which includes AOL's business of selling advertising on the
AOL Network and the Third Party Network and licensing ad serving technology to
third-party websites. Platform-A offers to advertisers a range of capabilities
and solutions, including optimization and targeting technologies, to deliver
more effective advertising and reach specific audiences across the AOL Network
and the Third Party Network. During 2007 and the early part of 2008, AOL
acquired various businesses to supplement its online advertising capabilities,
and these businesses contributed $110 million in Advertising revenues during the
nine months ended September 30, 2008.
During the first nine months of 2008, Advertising revenues on the AOL Network
were negatively affected by certain factors and trends, including increased
volume of inventory monetized through lower priced sales channels, declines in
the price of advertising inventory in certain inventory segments and an overall
increase in marketplace competition. Additionally, AOL's Advertising revenues on
both the AOL Network and the Third Party Network were negatively impacted by
weakening economic conditions resulting in lower demand from certain advertiser
categories as well as certain sales execution and systems integration issues,
including matters relating to the integration of acquired businesses under
Platform-A into a single sales force. During the early part of 2008, the
increasing usage of third-party advertising networks has had a positive impact
on AOL's Third Party Network Advertising revenues. Third Party Network
advertising has historically had higher traffic acquisition costs ("TAC") and,
therefore, lower incremental margins than display advertising. Due to the
differing cost structures associated with the AOL Network and Third Party
Network components of the Global Web Services business, a period-over-period
increase or decrease in aggregate Advertising revenues will not necessarily
translate into a similar increase or decrease in Operating Income before
Depreciation and Amortization attributable to AOL's advertising activities.
During the first nine months of 2008, the Company has experienced a
significant decline in Advertising revenues due in part to a decrease in
business from a major customer of Platform-A Inc. (formerly Advertising.com,
Inc.). The Company anticipates that revenues from this customer will continue to
decline for the remainder of 2008 compared to the similar period in 2007.
Revenues from this relationship decreased to $25 million for the nine months
ended September 30, 2008 from $162 million for the nine months ended
September 30, 2007. For the full year 2007, AOL earned Advertising revenues from
this relationship of $215 million.
AOL's Publishing business group, a unit of the Global Web Services business,
develops and operates the products and programming functions associated with the
AOL Network. The AOL Network consists of a variety of websites, related
applications and services that can be accessed generally via the Internet or via
the AOL Internet access services. Specifically, the AOL Network includes owned
and operated websites, applications and services such as AOL.com, e-mail, AIM,
MapQuest, Moviefone, ICQ, Truveo (a video search engine) and international
versions of the AOL portal. The AOL Network also includes TMZ.com, a joint
venture with Telepictures Productions, Inc. (a subsidiary of Warner Bros.
Entertainment Inc.), as well as other co-branded websites owned by third parties
for which certain criteria have been met, including that the Internet traffic
has been assigned to AOL. In addition, during the second quarter of 2008, AOL
completed
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the acquisition of Bebo, Inc. ("Bebo"), a leading global social media network,
which AOL continues to integrate into its business.
Paid-search advertising activities on the AOL Network are conducted primarily
through AOL's strategic relationship with Google Inc. ("Google"). In connection
with the expansion of this strategic relationship in April 2006, Google acquired
a 5% interest in AOL, and, as a result, 95% of the equity interests in AOL are
indirectly held by the Company and 5% are indirectly held by Google. As part of
the April 2006 transaction, Google received certain registration rights relating
to its equity interest in AOL. Since July 1, 2008, Google has had the right to
require AOL to register Google's 5% equity interest for sale in an initial
public offering. If Google exercises this right, Time Warner will have the right
to purchase Google's equity interest for cash or shares of Time Warner common
stock based on the appraised fair market value of the equity interest in lieu of
conducting an initial public offering. The Company cannot predict whether Google
will request the Company to register its 5% equity interest in AOL or, if
requested, whether the Company would exercise its option to purchase Google's
interest at its then appraised value.
AOL's Access Services business offers an online subscription service to
consumers that includes dial-up Internet access. AOL continued to experience
declines in the first nine months of 2008 in the number of its U.S. subscribers
and related revenues, due primarily to AOL's decisions to focus on its
advertising business and offer most of its services (other than Internet access)
for free to support the advertising business, AOL's significant reduction of
subscriber acquisition and retention efforts, and the industry-wide decline of
the dial-up ISP business and growth in the broadband Internet access business.
The decline in U.S. subscribers has moderated, with a decline of 1.9 million for
the nine months ended September 30, 2008 compared to a decline of 3.1 million
for the nine months ended September 30, 2007. The decline in subscribers has had
an adverse impact on AOL's Subscription revenues. However, dial-up network costs
have also decreased and are anticipated to continue to decrease as subscribers
decline. AOL's Advertising revenues associated with the AOL Network, in large
part, are generated from the activity of current and former AOL subscribers.
Therefore, the decline in subscribers also could have an adverse impact on AOL's
Advertising revenues generated on the AOL Network to the extent that subscribers
canceling their subscriptions do not maintain their relationship with and usage
of the AOL Network.
Cable. Time Warner's cable business, TWC, is the second-largest cable
operator in the U.S., with technologically advanced, well-clustered systems
located mainly in five geographic areas - New York State (including New York
City), the Carolinas, Ohio, southern California (including Los Angeles) and
Texas. As of September 30, 2008, TWC served approximately 14.7 million customers
who subscribed to one or more of its video, high-speed data and voice services.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, TWC generated revenues of
$12.798 billion (37% of the Company's overall revenues), $4.481 billion in
Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization and $2.162 billion in
Operating Income.
TWC principally offers three services - video, high-speed data and voice -
over its broadband cable systems. TWC markets its services separately and in
"bundled" packages of multiple services and features. As of September 30, 2008,
53% of TWC's customers subscribed to two or more of its primary services,
including 20% of its customers who subscribed to all three primary services.
Historically, TWC has focused primarily on residential customers, while also
selling video, high-speed data and networking and transport services to
commercial customers. During 2007, TWC also began selling voice services to
small- and medium-sized businesses as part of an increased emphasis on its
commercial business. TWC believes selling commercial services will provide
additional opportunities for growth in the future. In addition, TWC earns
revenues by selling advertising time to national, regional and local customers.
Video is TWC's largest service in terms of revenues generated and, as of
September 30, 2008, TWC had approximately 13.3 million basic video subscribers,
of which approximately 8.6 million subscribed to TWC's digital video service.
Although providing video services is a competitive and highly penetrated
business, TWC expects to continue to increase video revenues through the
offering of advanced digital video services, as well as through price increases
and digital video subscriber growth. TWC's digital video subscribers provide a
broad base of potential customers for additional services. Video programming
costs represent a major component of TWC's expenses and are expected to continue
to increase, reflecting programming rate increases on existing services, costs
associated with retransmission consent agreements, subscriber growth and the
expansion of service offerings. TWC expects that its video service margins as a
percentage of video revenues will continue to decline over the next few years as
increases in programming costs outpace growth in video revenues.
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As of September 30, 2008, TWC had approximately 8.3 million residential
high-speed data subscribers. TWC expects continued growth in residential
high-speed data subscribers and revenues for the foreseeable future; however,
the rate of growth of both subscribers and revenues is expected to continue to
slow over time as high-speed data services become increasingly penetrated. TWC
also offers commercial high-speed data services and had 295,000 commercial
high-speed data subscribers as of September 30, 2008.
As of September 30, 2008, TWC had approximately 3.6 million residential
Digital Phone subscribers. TWC expects increases in Digital Phone subscribers
and revenues for the foreseeable future; however, the rate of growth of both
subscribers and revenues is expected to slow over time as Digital Phone services
become increasingly penetrated. TWC rolled out Business Class Phone, a
commercial Digital Phone service, to small- and medium-sized businesses during
2007 in the majority of its systems and has nearly completed the roll-out in the
remainder of its systems during the first nine months of 2008. As of
September 30, 2008, TWC had 23,000 commercial Digital Phone subscribers.
Some of TWC's principal competitors, direct broadcast satellite operators and
incumbent local telephone companies in particular, either offer or are making
significant capital investments that will allow them to offer services that
provide features and functions comparable to the video, high-speed data and/or
voice services offered by TWC. These services are also offered in bundles
similar to TWC's and, in certain cases, such offerings include wireless service.
The availability of these bundled service offerings has intensified competition,
and TWC expects that competition will continue to intensify in the future as
these offerings become more prevalent. TWC plans to continue to enhance its
services with innovative offerings, which TWC believes will distinguish its
services from those of its competitors.
Time Warner owns approximately 84% of the common stock of TWC (representing a
90.6% voting interest), and also owns an indirect 12.43% non-voting equity
interest in TW NY Cable Holding Inc. ("TW NY"), a subsidiary of TWC. On May 20,
2008, TWC and its subsidiaries Time Warner Entertainment Company, L.P. ("TWE")
and TW NY entered into a Separation Agreement (the "Separation Agreement") with
Time Warner and its subsidiaries Warner Communications Inc. ("WCI"), Historic TW
Inc. ("Historic TW") and American Television and Communications Corporation
("ATC"), the terms of which will govern TWC's legal and structural separation
from Time Warner. Refer to "Recent Developments" for further details.
Filmed Entertainment. Time Warner's Filmed Entertainment segment comprises
Warner Bros. Entertainment Group ("Warner Bros."), one of the world's leading
studios, and New Line Cinema Corporation ("New Line"). For the nine months ended
September 30, 2008, the Filmed Entertainment segment generated revenues of
$8.285 billion (22% of the Company's overall revenues), $857 million in
Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization and $552 million in
Operating Income.
The Filmed Entertainment segment has diversified sources of revenues within
its film and television businesses, including an extensive film library and a
global distribution infrastructure, which have helped it to deliver consistent
long-term performance. In an effort to increase operational efficiencies and
maximize performance within the Filmed Entertainment segment, the Company
reorganized the New Line business in 2008 to be operated as a unit of Warner
Bros. while maintaining separate development, production and other operations.
During the first nine months of 2008, the Company incurred restructuring charges
related to planned involuntary employee terminations in connection with the
reorganization. The Company expects to incur additional restructuring charges
related to the reorganization during the remainder of 2008.
Warner Bros. continues to be an industry leader in the television business.
During the 2008-2009 broadcast season, Warner Bros. expects to produce
approximately 20 primetime series, with at least one series airing on each of
the five broadcast networks (including Two and a Half Men, Without a Trace, Cold
Case, ER and Smallville), as well as original series for several cable networks
(including The Closer and Nip/Tuck).
The sale of DVDs has been one of the largest drivers of the segment's profit
over the last several years, and its extensive library of theatrical and
television titles positions it to continue to benefit from sales of home video
product to consumers. However, the industry and the Company have experienced a
leveling of DVD sales due to several factors, including increasing competition
for consumer discretionary spending, piracy, the maturation of the standard
definition DVD format and the fragmentation of consumer leisure time. In the
first quarter of 2008, the home video industry settled on the Blu-ray
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format as the single high-definition technology. The shift to a single format
may lead to increased consumer purchases of high definition players and DVDs.
Piracy, including physical piracy as well as illegal online file-sharing,
continues to be a significant issue for the filmed entertainment industry. Due
to technological advances, piracy has expanded from music to movies and
television programming. The Company has taken a variety of actions to combat
piracy over the last several years, including the launch of new services for
consumers at competitive price points, aggressive online and customs
enforcement, compressed release windows and educational campaigns, and will
continue to do so, both individually and together with cross-industry groups,
trade associations and strategic partners.
Networks. Time Warner's Networks segment comprises Turner Broadcasting
System, Inc. ("Turner") and Home Box Office, Inc. ("HBO"). For the nine months
ended September 30, 2008, the Networks segment generated revenues of
$8.216 billion (22% of the Company's overall revenues), $2.805 billion in
Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization and $2.532 billion in
Operating Income.
The Turner networks - including such recognized brands as TNT, TBS, CNN,
Cartoon Network, truTV and Headline News - are among the leaders in
advertising-supported cable TV networks. For six consecutive years, more
primetime households have watched advertising-supported cable TV networks than
the national broadcast networks. The Turner networks generate revenues
principally from receipt of monthly subscriber fees paid by cable system
operators, satellite distribution services, telephone companies and other
distributors and from the sale of advertising. Key contributors to Turner's
success are its continued investments in high-quality programming focused on
sports, original and syndicated series, news, network movie premieres and
animation leading to strong ratings and Subscription and Advertising revenue
growth, as well as strong brands and operating efficiency.
HBO operates the HBO and Cinemax multichannel pay television programming
services, with the HBO service ranking as the nation's most widely distributed
premium pay television service. HBO generates revenues principally from monthly
subscriber fees from cable system operators, satellite distribution services,
telephone companies and other distributors. An additional source of revenues is
the sale of its original programming, including The Sopranos, Sex and the City,
Rome and Entourage.
During the first nine months of 2008, the results of the Networks segment
benefited from the segment's recent international expansion efforts, including
Turner's fourth-quarter 2007 acquisition of seven pay networks operating
principally in Latin America and HBO's acquisitions of additional interests in
HBO Asia and HBO South Asia during the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first
quarter of 2008. During the first nine months of 2008, these acquired businesses
contributed approximately $113 million of revenues and $12 million of Operating
Income before Depreciation and Amortization. The Company anticipates that
international expansion will continue to be an area of focus at the Networks
segment for the foreseeable future.
Publishing. Time Warner's Publishing segment consists principally of
magazine publishing and related websites as well as a number of direct-marketing
and direct-selling businesses. The Publishing segment generated revenues of
$3.339 billion (10% of the Company's overall revenues), $625 million in
Operating Income before Depreciation and Amortization and $473 million in
Operating Income for the nine months ended September 30, 2008. The Publishing
segment is undertaking a significant reorganization primarily of its U.S.
publishing operations and expects to incur restructuring charges in the fourth
quarter of 2008.
As of September 30, 2008, Time Inc. published 24 magazines in the U.S.,
including People, Sports Illustrated, InStyle, Southern Living, Real Simple,
Time, Cooking Light and Entertainment Weekly, and approximately 100 magazines
outside the U.S., including magazines published through the Company's U.K.
subsidiary IPC Media ("IPC"), in Mexico through Time Inc.'s subsidiary Grupo
Editorial Expansion and international editions of its U.S. magazines. The
Publishing segment generates revenues primarily from advertising (including
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