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27-Oct-2008
Quarterly Report
YOU SHOULD READ THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR
UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS INCLUDED IN ITEM 1 OF THIS
DOCUMENT.
THIS MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF
OPERATIONS CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. SEE "FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
IS SUBJECT TO RISK AND UNCERTAINTY" FOR A DISCUSSION OF CERTAIN OF THE
UNCERTAINTIES, RISKS AND ASSUMPTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STATEMENTS.
GOODRICH AVIATION TECHNICAL SERVICES, INC. (ATS) HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AS A
DISCONTINUED OPERATION. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED HEREIN, DISCLOSURES PERTAIN ONLY
TO OUR CONTINUING OPERATIONS.
OVERVIEW
We are one of the largest worldwide suppliers of aerospace components, systems
and services to the commercial and general aviation airplane markets. We are
also a leading supplier of systems and products to the global defense and space
markets. Our business is conducted globally with manufacturing, service and
sales undertaken in various locations throughout the world. Our products and
services are principally sold to customers in North America, Europe and Asia.
Key Market Channels for Products and Services, Growth Drivers and Industry and
our Highlights
We participate in three key market channels: commercial, regional, business and
general aviation airplane original equipment (OE); commercial, regional,
business and general aviation airplane aftermarket; and defense and space.
Commercial, Regional, Business and General Aviation Airplane OE
Commercial, regional, business and general aviation airplane OE includes sales
of products and services for new airplanes produced by Airbus and Boeing, and
regional, business and small airplane manufacturers.
The key growth drivers in this market channel include the number of orders for
new airplanes, which will be delivered to the manufacturers' customers over a
period of several years, OE manufacturer production and delivery rates and
introductions of new airplane models such as the Boeing 787 and 747-8, the
Airbus A380 and A350 XWB, the Embraer 190 and engine types such as the Pratt &
Whitney Geared Turbofan engine.
We have significant sales content on most of the airplanes manufactured in this
market channel. We have benefited from increased production rates and deliveries
of Airbus and Boeing airplanes and from our substantial content on many of the
regional and general aviation airplanes. Delivery of new Boeing aircraft in 2008
and beyond may be negatively impacted by the Boeing labor dispute with the
International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which began on
September 6, 2008.
While the commercial airline industry has been negatively impacted by the recent
rise in fuel costs, the commercial airplane manufacturers still have a
significant backlog of orders and continue to expect new order flow greater than
new airplane deliveries in 2008. Airlines worldwide are expected to continue to
take delivery of a significant number of new airplanes in 2008 and beyond to
replace older aircraft and for additional capacity.
In August 2008, we announced a letter of intent with Rolls-Royce plc proposing
the formation of a joint venture, which would develop and supply engine controls
for Rolls-Royce aero engines. The proposed joint venture would combine our
existing U.K.-based engine controls design and manufacturing business and
Rolls-Royce's expertise in the integration of controls into the engine. We would
retain the aftermarket products and services business associated with the joint
venture's products.
Commercial, Regional, Business and General Aviation Airplane Aftermarket
The commercial, regional, business and general aviation airplane aftermarket
channel includes sales of products and services for existing commercial and
general aviation airplanes, primarily to airlines and package carriers around
the world.
The key growth drivers in this channel include worldwide passenger capacity
growth measured by Available Seat Miles (ASM) and the size, type and activity
levels of the worldwide airplane fleet. Other important factors affecting growth
in this market channel are the age and types of the airplanes in the fleet and
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) trends in countries and regions around the world.
Capacity in the global airline system, as measured by ASMs, is expected to grow
at about 4% in 2008. We expect that the global airplane fleet will continue to
grow in 2008, as the OE manufacturers are expected to deliver more airplanes
than are retired during 2008. However, ASM growth could deteriorate if airlines
choose to fly their in-service airplanes less frequently due to high fuel
prices, decreased demand and other factors.
While we have significant product content on most of the airplane models that
are currently in service, we enjoy the benefit of having excellent positions on
the newer, more fuel-efficient airplanes currently in service. These positions
have enabled us to continue to have strong commercial aftermarket sales growth.
Even though many airlines have announced that they will remove some of their
older airplanes from their fleets, we do not expect these removals to have a
significant impact on our results in 2008. These older airplanes, primarily
MD-80s and 737 Classics, represent approximately 31% of the world's fleet of
large commercial aircraft, but only 8% of our large commercial aftermarket
sales, or about 2% of our total sales.
Defense and Space
Worldwide defense and space sales include sales to prime contractors such as
Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, the U.S. Government and foreign
companies and governments.
The key growth drivers in this channel include the level of defense spending by
the U.S. and foreign governments, the number of new platform starts, the level
of military flight operations and the level of upgrade, overhaul and maintenance
activities associated with existing platforms.
The market for our defense and space products is global, and is not dependent on
any single program, platform or customer. We anticipate fewer new fighter and
transport aircraft platform starts over the next several years. We also
anticipate that the introduction of the F-35 Lightning II and new helicopter
platforms, along with upgrades on existing defense and space platforms, will
provide long-term growth opportunities in this market channel. Additionally, we
are participating in, and developing new products for, the rapidly expanding
homeland security and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance sectors,
which should further strengthen our position in this market channel.
Long-term Sustainable Growth
We believe that we are well positioned to continue to grow overall sales due to:
• Awards for key products on important new and expected programs, including
the Airbus A380 and A350 XWB, the Boeing 787 and 747-8, the Embraer 190, the
Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan engine, the Dassault Falcon 7X and the
Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and F-22 Raptor;
• Growing commercial airplane fleet and strong positions on newer, more fuel-efficient airplanes, which should fuel sustained aftermarket strength;
• Balance in the large commercial airplane market, with strong sales to both Airbus and Boeing;
• Aging of the existing large commercial and regional airplane fleets, which should result in increased aftermarket support;
• Increased number of long-term agreements for product sales on new and existing commercial airplanes;
• Increased opportunities for aftermarket growth due to airline outsourcing;
• Growth in global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) opportunities for our systems and components, particularly in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, where we have expanded our capacity; and
• Expansion of our product offerings in support of high growth areas in the defense and space market channel, such as helicopter products and systems and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance products.
Third Quarter 2008 Sales Content by Market Channel During the third quarter 2008, approximately 94% of our sales were from our three primary market channels described above. Following is a summary of the percentage of sales by market channel:
Airbus Commercial OE 13 % Boeing Commercial OE 10 % Regional, Business and General Aviation Airplane OE 9 % Total Commercial, Regional, Business and General Aviation Airplane OE 32 % Large Commercial Airplane Aftermarket 29 % Regional, Business and General Aviation Airplane Aftermarket 7 % Total Commercial, Regional, Business and General Aviation Airplane Aftermarket 36 % Total Defense and Space 26 % Other 6 % Total 100 % |
Results of Operations - Third Quarter 2008 as Compared to Third Quarter 2007
Third Quarter $ %
2008 2007 Change Change
(Dollars in millions, except diluted EPS)
Sales $ 1,772.3 $ 1,601.7 $ 170.6 10.7
Segment operating income (1) $ 321.7 $ 275.9 $ 45.8 16.6
Corporate general and administrative costs (24.9 ) (39.7 ) 14.8 37.3
Total operating income 296.8 236.2 60.6 25.7
Net interest expense (25.3 ) (29.3 ) 4.0 13.7
Other income (expense) - net (9.6 ) (12.5 ) 2.9 23.2
Income tax expense (94.1 ) (54.2 ) (39.9 ) 73.6
Income from continuing operations 167.8 140.2 27.6 19.7
Income (loss) from discontinued operations 0.2 (13.4 ) 13.6 101.5
Net income $ 168.0 $ 126.8 $ 41.2 32.5
Effective tax rate 35.9 % 27.9 %
Diluted EPS:
Continuing operations $ 1.33 $ 1.10 $ 0.23 20.9
Net income $ 1.33 $ 0.99 $ 0.34 34.3
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(1) We measure each reporting segment's profit based upon operating income. Accordingly, we do not allocate net interest expense, other income (expense) - net and income taxes to our reporting segments. The company-wide Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) implementation costs that are not directly associated with a specific business were not allocated to the segments. For a reconciliation of total segment operating income to total operating income, see Note 3, "Business Segment Information" to our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.
Sales
The sales increase in the third quarter 2008 as compared to the third quarter
2007 was driven by changes in each of our major market channels as follows:
• Large commercial airplane original equipment sales increased by
approximately 1%;
• Regional, business and general aviation airplane original equipment sales increased by approximately 29%;
• Large commercial, regional, business and general aviation airplane aftermarket sales increased by approximately 13%; and
• Defense and space sales of both original equipment and aftermarket products and services increased by approximately 12%.
See "Business Segment Performance" section.
Segment operating income
The segment operating income growth was generated by increased sales and
improved operational performance in most business units as discussed in the
"Business Segment Performance" section.
Corporate general and administrative costs
Corporate general and administrative costs decreased for the third quarter 2008
as compared to the third quarter 2007 primarily due to lower share-based
compensation as discussed below and lower non-qualified pension expense due to a
favorable discount rate in 2008 compared to 2007.
Net interest expense
Net interest expense decreased for the third quarter 2008 as compared to the
third quarter 2007 primarily due to lower debt levels in 2008 as a result of the
repayment, from operating cash flow, of $162 million of notes which matured in
the second quarter 2008.
Other income (expense) - net
Other income (expense) - net decreased for the third quarter 2008 as compared to
the third quarter 2007, primarily as a result of lower expenses related to
previously owned businesses of approximately $3 million, primarily for
environmental litigation and remediation costs.
Income from continuing operations
In summary, the change in income from continuing operations during the third
quarter 2008 as compared to the third quarter 2007 was also impacted by the
following items:
Increase (Decrease)
Before After Diluted
Tax Tax EPS
(Dollars in millions, except diluted EPS)
Changes in estimates on long-term contracts $ 19.5 $ 12.0 $ 0.10
Lower share-based compensation $ 13.4 $ 8.2 $ 0.06
Settlement of customer claims in 2007 $ (21.6 ) $ (13.5 ) $ (0.10 )
Higher effective tax rate $ - $ (15.6 ) $ (0.12 )
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Changes in estimates on long-term contracts
During the third quarter 2008 and 2007, we revised our estimates on certain of
our long-term contracts, primarily in our aerostructures and aircraft wheels and
brakes business units. These changes in estimates resulted in higher income of
approximately $20 million in the third quarter of 2008 compared to the third
quarter of 2007.
Share-based compensation
The decrease in share-based compensation was primarily due to the following:
• The impact of unfavorable changes in our share price, which resulted in
lower expense of approximately $13 million; and
• Approximately $6 million of costs in 2007 related to the 2007 special stock options (see Note 17, "Share-Based Compensation", to our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements); partially offset by
• Approximately $4 million of costs for retirement eligible individuals resulting from a change in the vesting requirements in 2008.
Settlement of customer claims
During the third quarter of 2007, we settled certain claims with a customer that
did not recur in 2008.
Higher effective tax rate
For the third quarter of 2008, we reported an effective tax rate of 35.9%. For
the third quarter 2007, we reported an effective tax rate of 27.9%, including a
benefit of approximately 8 percentage points primarily related to the reversal
of tax reserves associated with tax settlements.
Income (loss) from discontinued operations
The loss from discontinued operations for the third quarter 2007 included the
estimated loss on the sale of ATS of approximately $14 million.
Effective tax rate
Our effective rate during the third quarter 2008 was not reduced for the benefit
of the U.S. Research and Development Credit (R&D Credit), which became law on
October 3, 2008. We estimate that the effective tax rate for 2008 would have
been approximately 1 percentage point lower had we been able to consider the tax
benefits associated with the R&D Credit.
Results of Operations - Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008 as Compared to Nine
Months Ended September 30, 2007
Nine Months Ended $ %
2008 2007 Change Change
(Dollars in millions, except diluted EPS)
Sales $ 5,366.6 $ 4,724.4 $ 642.2 13.6
Segment Operating Income (1) $ 940.3 $ 762.4 $ 177.9 23.3
Corporate general and administrative costs (80.5 ) (108.4 ) 27.9 25.7
Total operating income 859.8 654.0 205.8 31.5
Net interest expense (80.1 ) (88.3 ) 8.2 9.3
Other income (expense) - net (32.2 ) (45.6 ) 13.4 29.4
Income tax expense (242.5 ) (156.9 ) (85.6 ) 54.6
Income from continuing operations 505.0 363.2 141.8 39.0
Income (loss) from discontinued operations 7.5 (11.8 ) 19.3 163.6
Net income $ 512.5 $ 351.4 $ 161.1 45.8
Effective tax rate 32.4 % 30.2 %
Diluted EPS:
Continuing operations $ 3.97 $ 2.84 $ 1.13 39.8
Net income $ 4.03 $ 2.75 $ 1.28 46.5
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(1) We measure each reporting segment's profit based upon operating income. Accordingly, we do not allocate net interest expense, other income (expense) - net and income taxes to our reporting segments. The company-wide Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) implementation costs that are not directly associated with a specific business were not allocated to the segments. For a reconciliation of total segment operating income to total operating income, see Note 3, "Business Segment Information" to our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.
Sales
The sales increase in the nine months ended September 30, 2008 as compared to
the nine months ended September 30, 2007 was driven primarily by growth in each
of our major market channels as follows:
• Large commercial airplane original equipment sales increased by
approximately 14%;
• Regional, business and general aviation airplane original equipment sales increased by approximately 26%;
• Large commercial, regional, business and general aviation airplane aftermarket sales increased by approximately 11%; and
• Defense and space sales of both original equipment and aftermarket products and services increased by approximately 12%.
See "Business Segment Performance" section.
Segment operating income
The segment operating income growth was generated by increased sales and
improved operational performance in most business units as discussed in the
"Business Segment Performance" section.
Corporate general and administrative
Corporate general and administrative costs decreased for the nine months ended
September 30, 2008 as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2007,
primarily due to lower share-based compensation as discussed below and lower
non-qualified pension expense due to a favorable discount rate in 2008 compared
to 2007.
Net interest expense
Net interest expense decreased for the nine months ended September 30, 2008 as
compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2007 primarily due to the
repayment, from operating cash flow, of $162 million of notes which matured in
the second quarter 2008.
Other income (expense) - net
Other income (expense) - net decreased for the nine months ended September 30,
2008 as compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2007 primarily as a
result of the following:
• Lower expenses related to previously owned businesses of approximately
$10 million, primarily for environmental litigation and remediation costs;
and
• Higher income from equity in affiliated companies of approximately $3 million;
Income from continuing operations
In summary, the change in income from continuing operations during the nine
months ended September 30, 2008 as compared to the nine months ended
September 30, 2007 was also impacted by the following items:
Increase (Decrease)
Before After Diluted
Tax Tax EPS
(Dollars in millions, except diluted EPS)
Changes in estimates on long-term contracts $ 33.0 $ 20.4 $ 0.16
Lower share-based compensation $ 29.8 $ 18.1 $ 0.14
Foreign exchange rate impact, including net
monetary asset remeasurement $ (19.4 ) $ (11.8 ) $ (0.09 )
Settlement of customer claims in 2007 $ (21.6 ) $ (13.2 ) $ (0.10 )
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Changes in estimates on long-term contracts
During the nine months ended 2008 and 2007, we revised our estimates on certain
of our long-term contracts, primarily in our aerostructures and aircraft wheels
and brakes business units. These changes in estimates resulted in higher income
of approximately $33 million in the nine months ended 2008 compared to the nine
months ended 2007.
Share-based compensation
The decrease in share-based compensation was primarily due to the following:
• The impact of unfavorable changes in our share price, which resulted in
lower expense of approximately $35 million; and
• Approximately $8 million of costs in 2007 related to the 2007 special stock options (see Note 17, "Share-Based Compensation", to our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements); partially offset by
• Approximately $12 million of costs for retirement eligible individuals resulting from a change in the vesting requirements in 2008.
Foreign exchange rate impact
The net unfavorable foreign exchange impact was due to the following:
• Approximately $31 million relating to unfavorable foreign currency
translation of net costs in currencies other than the U.S. Dollar, partially
offset by approximately $4 million of higher net gains on cash flow hedges
settled during the nine months ended September 30, 2008; partially offset by
• Approximately $24 million of increased net transaction gains relating to remeasuring monetary assets/liabilities into the local functional currency, partially offset by approximately $16 million of higher net losses on forward contracts we entered into to offset the impact of net monetary asset gains/losses.
Settlement of customer claims
During the nine months ended September 30, 2008, we settled certain claims with
a customer that did not recur in 2008.
Income (loss) from discontinued operations
The income from discontinued operations for the nine months ended September 30,
2008 included a gain from the sale of a previously discontinued operation for
approximately $6 million. The loss from discontinued operations for the nine
months ended September 30, 2007 included the estimated loss on the sale of ATS
of approximately $14 million.
Effective tax rate
For the nine months ended September 30, 2008, we reported an effective tax rate
of 32.4%, including a benefit of approximately 3 percentage points for amended
state returns primarily for additional research and development credits and
changes in apportionment and a benefit of approximately 3 percentage points
related to amended returns following the settlement of a foreign tax audit. For
the nine months ended September 30, 2007, we reported an effective tax rate of
30.2%, including a benefit of approximately 2 percentage points for the
elimination of certain valuation allowances against net operation losses of a
foreign subsidiary and a benefit of approximately 3 percentage points primarily
related to the reversal of tax reserves associated with tax settlements. Our
effective rate during the nine months ended September 30, 2008 was not reduced
for the benefit of the R&D Credit, which became law on October 3, 2008. We
estimate that the effective rate for 2008 would have been approximately
1 percentage point lower had we been able to consider the tax benefits
associated with the R&D Credit.
2008 OUTLOOK
We expect the following results for the year ending December 31, 2008:
2008 Outlook 2007 Actual
Sales $7.1 billion $6.4 billion
Diluted EPS - Net Income $4.90 to $5.00 per share $3.78 per share
Capital Expenditures $275 to $325 million $282.6 million
Operating Cash Flow net of Capital Expenditures 65% of net income 64% of net income
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Sales
We expect that full year 2008 sales will be approximately $7.1 billion. Our
current market assumptions, for each of our major market channels, for the full
year 2008, including sales resulting from recent acquisitions, compared with the
full year 2007, include the following:
• Large commercial airplane OE sales are expected to increase by approximately
5% to 10%, depending on the outcome of the Boeing labor dispute;
. . .
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