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AHR > SEC Filings for AHR > Form 10-Q on 11-Aug-2008All Recent SEC Filings

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Form 10-Q for ANTHRACITE CAPITAL INC


11-Aug-2008

Quarterly Report


ITEM 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

All currency figures expressed herein are expressed in thousands, except share and per share amounts.

I. General

Anthracite Capital, Inc., a Maryland corporation (collectively with its subsidiaries, the "Company"), is a specialty finance company that invests in commercial real estate assets on a global basis. The Company commenced operations on March 24, 1998 and is organized as a real estate investment trust ("REIT"). The Company seeks to generate income from the spread between the interest income, gains and net operating income on its commercial real estate assets and the interest expense from borrowings to finance its investments. The Company's primary activities are investing in high yielding commercial real estate debt and equity. The Company combines traditional real estate underwriting and capital markets expertise to maximize the opportunities arising from the continuing integration of these two disciplines. The Company focuses on acquiring pools of performing loans in the form of commercial mortgage-backed securities ("CMBS"), issuing secured debt backed by CMBS and providing strategic capital for the commercial real estate industry in the form of mezzanine loan financing and equity.

The Company's primary investment activities are conducted on a global basis in four investment sectors:
1) Commercial Real Estate Securities

2) Commercial Real Estate Loans

3) Commercial Real Estate Equity

4) Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities ("RMBS")

The commercial real estate securities portfolio provides diversification and high yields that are adjusted for anticipated losses over a period of time (typically a ten-year weighted average life). Commercial real estate loans and equity provide attractive risk adjusted returns over shorter periods of time through strategic investments in specific property types or regions. Given the dramatically improved relative value in the RMBS sector, the Company may replenish the RMBS portfolio as its source of liquidity.

The Company's common stock, par value $0.001 per share ("Common Stock"), is traded on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") under the symbol "AHR". The Company's primary long-term objective is to generate sufficient earnings to support a dividend at a level which provides an attractive return to stockholders. The Company establishes its dividend by analyzing the long-term sustainability of earnings given existing market conditions and the current composition of its portfolio. This includes an analysis of the Company's credit loss assumptions, general level of interest rates and projected hedging costs.

The Company is managed by BlackRock Financial Management, Inc. (the "Manager"), a subsidiary of BlackRock, Inc., a publicly traded (NYSE:BLK) asset management company with more than $1.428 trillion of assets under management at June 30, 2008. The Manager provides an operating platform that incorporates significant asset origination, risk management, and operational capabilities.

The Company's fixed income investment activity continues to be managed to maintain a positive, though controlled, exposure to both long- and short-term interest rates through its active hedging strategies. See "Item 3 - Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk" for a discussion of interest rates and their effect on earnings and book value.


The following table illustrates the mix of the Company's asset types at June 30, 2008 and December 31, 2007:

                                                         Carrying Value at
                                               June 30, 2008         December 31, 2007
                                              Amount        %        Amount         %

   Commercial real estate securities(4)     $ 1,903,167     44.6 % $ 2,274,151      49.3 %
   Commercial real estate loans(1)            1,121,253     26.3     1,082,785      23.5
   Commercial mortgage loan pools(2)          1,229,442     28.8     1,240,793      26.9
   Commercial real estate equity(3)               9,350      0.2         9,350       0.2
   Total commercial real estate assets        4,263,212      100 %   4,607,079      99.9
   Residential mortgage-backed securities           973      0.0        10,183       0.1
   Total                                    $ 4,264,185      100 % $ 4,617,262     100.0 %

(1) Includes equity investments in the Carbon Capital funds and AHR International JV.

(2) Represents a Controlling Class CMBS that is consolidated for accounting purposes. See Note 6 of the consolidated financial statements.

(3) Represents equity investment in Dynamic India Fund IV

(4) Includes equity investment in AHR JV

During the first six months of 2008 the Company purchased $53,515 of non-U.S. dollar denominated securities in order to continue to increase geographic diversification. Also during the first six months of 2008, the Company sold the majority of its remaining multifamily agency securities and CMBS IOs to increase its liquidity position. In addition, the dislocation in the capital markets during the first quarter of 2008 caused CMBS spreads to widen significantly. This development resulted in a significant decline in the market value of the Company's U.S. CMBS portfolio during the first quarter of 2008.


Summary of Commercial Real Estate Assets by Local Currency

A summary of the Company's commercial real estate assets with estimated fair
values in local currencies at June 30, 2008 is as follows:

                                                                                                                       Total
                                                                                                        Total        Commercial
                                                      Commercial      Commercial                      Commercial        Real
                                   Commercial            Real            Real        Commercial          Real          Estate
                                   Real Estate          Estate          Estate        Mortgage          Estate         Assets
                                  Securities(2)       Loans (1)         Equity       Loan Pools         Assets         (USD)        % of Total
USD                            $      1,507,230   $      418,711               -   $  1,229,442   $    3,155,383   $  3,155,383           74.0 %
GBP                            £         28,487   £       44,679               -              -   £       73,166        145,613            3.4 %
EURO                           €        136,522   €      370,606               -              -   €      507,128        799,006           18.7 %
Canadian Dollars               C$        86,907   C$       6,276               -              -   C$      93,183         91,847            2.2 %
Japanese Yen                   ¥      4,079,450                -               -              -   ¥    4,079,450         38,484            0.9 %
Swiss Francs                                  -   CHF     23,966               -              -   CHF     23,966         23,529            0.6 %
Indian Rupees                                 -                -   Rs    401,302              -   Rs     401,302          9,350            0.2 %

Total USD Equivalent $ 1,903,167 $ 1,121,253 $ 9,350 $ 1,229,442 $ 4,263,212 $ 4,263,212 100.0 %

(1) Includes the Company's investments in the Carbon Capital Funds of $96,969 and AHR International JV of $30,902 at June 30, 2008.

(2) Includes the Company's investment in AHR JV of $1,089 at June 30, 2008.

A summary of the Company's commercial real estate assets with estimated fair values in local currencies at December 31, 2007 is as follows:

                                                                                                                     Total
                                                                                                      Total        Commercial
                                  Commercial        Commercial      Commercial                      Commercial        Real
                                     Real              Real            Real        Commercial          Real          Estate
                                    Estate            Estate          Estate        Mortgage          Estate         Assets
                                  Securities        Loans (1)         Equity       Loan Pools         Assets         (USD)        % of Total
USD                            $   1,881,328   $       445,618   $           -   $  1,240,793   $    3,567,739   $  3,567,739           77.4 %
GBP                            £      35,247   £        45,944               -              -   £       81,191        161,618            3.5 %
Euro                           €     131,645   €       354,458               -              -   €      486,103        710,707           15.4 %
Canadian Dollars               C$     89,805   C$        6,249               -              -   C$      96,054         97,324            2.1 %
Japanese Yen                   ¥   4,378,759                 -               -              -   ¥    4,378,759         39,196            0.9 %
Swiss Francs                               -   CHF      23,939               -              -   CHF     23,939         21,145            0.5 %
Indian Rupees                              -                 -   Rs    368,483              -   Rs     368,483          9,350            0.2 %

Total USD Equivalent $ 2,274,151 $ 1,082,785 $ 9,350 $ 1,240,793 $ 4,607,079 $ 4,607,079 100.0 %

(1) Includes the Company's investments of $99,398 in the Carbon Capital Funds at December 31, 2007.

The Company has foreign currency rate exposure related to its non-U.S. dollar denominated assets. The Company's primary foreign currency exposures are the Euro, British pound and Canadian dollar. Changes in currency rates can adversely impact the estimated fair value and earnings of the Company's non-U.S. dollar investments. The Company mitigates this impact by utilizing local currency-denominated financing on its foreign investments and foreign currency forward commitments and swaps to hedge the net exposure.


Commercial Real Estate Assets Portfolio Activity

The following table details the par value, carrying value, adjusted purchase
price, and expected yield of the Company's commercial real estate securities
included in as well as outside of the Company's CDOs at June 30, 2008. The
dollar price ("Dollar Price") represents the estimated fair value or adjusted
purchase price of a security, respectively, relative to its par value.

                                                                                Adjusted
Commercial real estate                                                          Purchase       Dollar      Expected
securities outside CDOs         Par        Carrying Value     Dollar Price        Price         Price       Yield
Investment grade CMBS       $   219,774   $        159,830   $        72.72   $     190,190   $   86.54         7.08 %
Investment grade REIT
debt                                121                117            96.90             123      101.41         5.27
CMBS rated BB+ to B             565,361            235,745            41.70         432,343       76.47         8.85
CMBS rated B- or lower          514,031            110,761            21.34         161,542       31.40         8.39
CDO Investments                 347,807             32,732             9.41          62,005       17.83        21.55
CMBS Interest Only
securities ("IOs")              110,688              4,427             4.00           2,192        1.98        24.90
Multifamily agency
securities                          350                357           102.00             515      147.08         6.74

Total commercial real
estate assets outside
CDOs                          1,758,132            543,969            30.88         849,910       48.28         9.34

Commercial real estate loans and equity outside CDOs
Commercial real estate
loans                           645,885            631,391                          596,407
Commercial mortgage loan
pools                         1,189,528          1,229,442           103.36       1,229,442      103.36         4.15
Commercial real estate            9,350              9,350                            9,350
Total commercial real
estate loans and equity
outside CDOs                  1,844,763          1,870,183           103.36       1,835,199      103.36         4.15

Commercial real estate assets included in CDOs
Investment grade CMBS           808,780            708,420            87.59         759,536       93.91         7.28
Investment grade REIT
debt                            210,624            205,729            97.68         211,767      100.54         5.78
CMBS rated BB+ to B             591,077            372,632            63.04         460.937       77.98         9.95
CMBS rated B- or lower          199,983             46,545            23.27          71,936       35.97        10.14
CDO Investments                   4,000              2,840            71.00           3,535       88.38         7.84
Credit tenant lease              22,944             23,032           100.38          23,562      102.70         5.66
Commercial real estate
loans                           499,504            489,861            98.07         437,105       87.51         8.60
Total commercial real
estate assets included in
CDOs                          2,336,912          1,849,059            79.12       1,968,378       84.23         8.15 %
Total commercial real
estate assets               $ 5,939,807   $      4,263,211                    $   4,653,487


The following table details the par, carrying value, adjusted purchase price and expected yield of the Company's commercial real estate assets included in as well as outside of the Company's CDOs at December 31, 2007:

                                                                                Adjusted
Commercial real estate                                                          Purchase       Dollar      Expected
securities outside CDOs         Par        Carrying Value     Dollar Price        Price         Price       Yield
Investment grade CMBS       $   179,638   $        149,856   $        83.42   $     158,216   $   88.07         6.56 %
Investment grade REIT
debt                             23,121             20,034            86.65          22,995       99.45         5.49
CMBS rated BB+ to B             546,299            316,210            57.88         417,204       76.37         8.71
CMBS rated B- or lower          513,189            144,797            28.21         166,381       32.42        10.73
CDO Investments                 347,807             46,241            13.30          63,987       18.40        20.56
CMBS IOs                        818,670             15,915             1.94          14,725        1.80         8.80
Multifamily agency
securities                       35,955             37,123           103.25          36,815      102.39         5.37
Total commercial real
estate assets outside
CDOs                          2,464,679            730,176            29.61         880,323       35.70         9.34

Commercial real estate loans and equity outside CDOs
Commercial real estate
loans                           531,516            618,328                          601,144
Commercial mortgage loan
pools                         1,174,659          1,240,793           105.63       1,240,793      105.63         4.15
Commercial real estate            9,350              9,350                            9,350
Total commercial real
estate loans and equity
outside CDOs                  1,715,525          1,868,471           105.63       1,851,287      105.63         4.15

Commercial real estate assets included in CDOs
Investment grade CMBS           801,748            768,671            95.87         759,524       94.73         7.09
Investment grade REIT
debt                            223,324            226,060           101.23         224,608      100.57         5.85
CMBS rated BB+ to B             627,550            466,564            74.35         486,162       77.47        10.01
CMBS rated B- or lower          193,155             54,342            28.13          68,693       35.56        14.98
CDO Investments                   4,000              3,390            84.75           3,483       87.07         7.79
Credit tenant lease              23,235             24,949           107.38          23,867      102.72         5.66

Commercial real estate
loans                           476,782            464,456            97.41         434,364       91.10         8.73
Total commercial real
estate assets included in
CDOs                          2,349,794          2,008,432            85.47       2,000,701       85.14         8.28 %
Total commercial real
estate assets               $ 6,529,998   $      4,607,079                    $   4,732,311

The Company's CDO offerings allow the Company to match fund its commercial real estate portfolio by issuing long-term debt to finance long-term assets. The CDO debt is non-recourse to the Company; therefore, the Company's losses are limited to its equity investment in the CDO. The CDO debt is also hedged to protect the Company from an increase in short-term interest rates. At June 30, 2008, 57% of the estimated fair value of the Company's subordinated CMBS was match funded in the Company's CDOs in this manner. The Company retained 100% of the equity of CDOs I, II, III, HY3 and Euro (each as defined below) and recorded the transactions on its consolidated financial statements as secured financing.


The table below summarizes the Company's CDO collateral and debt at June 30, 2008.

                      Collateral at June 30, 2008          Debt at June 30, 2008
                                                                         Weighted
                                                          Adjusted       Average
                       Adjusted        Loss Adjusted       Issue         Cost of
                    Purchase Price         Yield           Price         Funds *       Net Spread
CDO I             $        454,341              8.23 % $    384,179           6.75 %         1.48 %
CDO II                     301,221              7.82        262,559           5.77           2.05 %
CDO III                    374,462              7.05        375,638           5.14           1.91 %

CDO HY3 415,232 9.79 372,725 5.29 4.50 % Euro CDO 423,122 8.24 415,157 5.07 3.17 %

Total ** $ 1,968,378 8.28 % $ 1,810,258 5.59 % 2.69 %

* Weighted Average Cost of Funds is the current cost of funds plus hedging expenses. ** The Company chose not to sell $12,500 of par of Euro CDO debt rated BB.

Real Estate Credit Profile of Below Investment Grade CMBS

The Company views its below investment grade CMBS investment activity as two portfolios: Controlling Class CMBS and other below investment grade CMBS. The Company considers the CMBS securities where it maintains the right to influence the foreclosure/workout process on the underlying loans its controlling class CMBS ("Controlling Class"). The distinction between the two is in the rights the Company obtains with its investment in Controlling Class CMBS. Controlling Class rights allow the Company to influence the workout and/or disposition of defaults that occur in the underlying loans. These securities absorb the first losses realized in the underlying loan pools. The coupon payment on the non-rated security also can be reduced for special servicer fees charged to the trust. The next highest rated security in the structure then generally will be downgraded to non-rated and become the first to absorb losses and expenses from that point on. At June 30, 2008, the Company owned 39 trusts where it is in the first loss position and is designated as the controlling class representative by owning the lowest rated or non-rated CMBS class. The total par of the loans underlying these securities was $58,356,845. At June 30, 2008, subordinated Controlling Class CMBS with a par of $1,556,235 were included on the Company's consolidated statement of financial condition and subordinated Controlling Class CMBS with a par of $750,623 were held as collateral by CDO HY1 and CDO HY2 (each as defined below).

The Company's other below investment grade CMBS have more limited rights associated with its ownership to influence the workout and/or disposition of underlying loan defaults. The total par of the Company's other below investment grade CMBS at June 30, 2008 was $313,079; the average credit protection, or subordination level, of this portfolio was 0.93%.


The Company's investment in its subordinated Controlling Class CMBS securities by credit rating category at June 30, 2008 was as follows:

                                                                  Adjusted
                                  Estimated                       Purchase                       Weighted Average
                       Par        Fair Value    Dollar Price       Price       Dollar Price    Subordination Level
BB+                $  250, 135   $    127,960   $       51.16   $    210,257   $       84.06                   4.18 %
BB                     191,578         88,612           46.25        156,143           81.50                   3.16 %
BB-                    182,916         94,521           51.67        133,211           72.83                   5.03 %
B+                     106,635         40,594           38.07         70,207           65.84                   2.12 %
B                      133,772         49,770           37.20         81,965           61.27                   1.85 %
B-                     117,106         30,789           26.29         61,188           52.25                   1.36 %
CCC+                    13,214          3,171           24.00          7,206           54.53                   0.65 %
CCC                     28,161          5,056           17.95         10,504           37.30                   0.75 %
NR                     532,718         93,027           17.46        133,503           25.06                    n/a
Total              $ 1,556,235   $    533,500   $       34.28   $    864,184   $       55.53

The Company's investment in its subordinated Controlling Class CMBS securities by credit rating category at December 31, 2007 was as follows:

                                                                  Adjusted
                                  Estimated                       Purchase                       Weighted Average
                       Par        Fair Value    Dollar Price       Price       Dollar Price    Subordination Level
BB+                $   277,946   $    189,351   $       68.13   $    228,054   $       82.05                   3.59 %
BB                     191,808        117,702           61.36        154,916           80.77                   2.55 %
BB-                    192,875        121,665           63.08        137,092           71.08                   4.33 %
B+                     103,352         55,664           53.86         67,214           65.03                   2.15 %
B                      140,275         71,947           51.29         83,949           59.85                   1.76 %
B-                     123,683         49,817           40.28         63,282           51.17                   1.29 %
CCC                     22,313          6,293           28.21          7,814           35.01                   0.88 %
NR                     533,920        118,473           22.19        139,714           26.17                    n/a
Total              $ 1,586,172   $    730,912   $       46.08   $    882,035   $       55.61

During the six months ended June 30, 2008, the loan pools were paid down by $2,103,618. Pay down proceeds are distributed to the highest rated CMBS class first and reduce the percent of total underlying collateral represented by each rating category.

As the portfolio matures and expected losses occur, subordination levels of the lower rated classes of a CMBS investment will be reduced. This may cause the lower rated classes to be downgraded, which would negatively affect their estimated fair value and therefore the Company's net book value. Reduced estimated fair value would negatively affect the Company's ability to finance any such securities that are not financed through a CDO or similar matched funding vehicle. In some cases, securities held by the Company may be upgraded to reflect seasoning of the underlying collateral and thus would increase the estimated fair value of the securities. During the six months ended June 30, 2008, four securities in one of the Company's Controlling Class CMBS was upgraded by at least one rating agency and thirteen securities in one Controlling Class CMBS were downgraded. Additionally, at least one rating agency upgraded eleven of the Company's non-Controlling Class commercial real estate securities and downgraded eight.


As part of its underwriting process, the Company assumes a certain amount of loans will incur losses over time. In performing continuing credit reviews on the 39 Controlling Class trusts, the Company estimates that specific losses totaling $851,920 related to principal of the underlying loans will not be recoverable, of which $399,403 is expected to occur over the next five years. The total loss estimate of $851,920 represents 1.46% of the total underlying loan pools.

The Company considers delinquency information from the Lehman Brothers Conduit Guide to be the most relevant benchmark to measure credit performance and market conditions applicable to its Controlling Class CMBS holdings. The year of issuance, or vintage year, is important, as older loan pools will tend to have more delinquencies than newly underwritten loans. The Company owns Controlling Class CMBS issued in 1998, 1999, and 2001 through 2007. Comparable delinquency statistics referenced by vintage year as a percentage of par outstanding at June 30, 2008 are shown in the table below:

Vintage    Underlying
 Year      Collateral    Delinquencies Outstanding     Lehman Brothers Conduit Guide
1998      $  1,640,063                         2.58 %                            0.81 %
1999           497,288                         2.22 %                            0.83 %
2001           805,373                         0.91 %                            0.83 %
2002           914,620                         0.00 %                            0.62 %
2003         1,751,059                         1.48 %                            0.87 %
2004         6,315,137                         0.70 %                            0.39 %
2005        11,819,255                         0.63 %                            0.41 %
2006        13,684,183                         0.71 %                            0.27 %
. . .
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