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| GNW > SEC Filings for GNW > Form 10-Q on 29-Apr-2008 | All Recent SEC Filings |
29-Apr-2008
Quarterly Report
The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes included herein.
Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements
This report contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as "expects," "intends," "anticipates," "plans," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," "will," or words of similar meaning and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the outlook for our future business and financial performance. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially due to global political, economic, business, competitive, market, regulatory and other factors and risks, including the following:
• Risks relating to our businesses, including interest rate fluctuations, downturns and volatility in equity and credit markets, downgrades in our financial strength or credit ratings, insufficiency of reserves, legal constraints on dividend distributions by subsidiaries, intense competition, availability and adequacy of reinsurance, defaults by counterparties, legal or regulatory investigations or actions, political or economic instability affecting outsourcing arrangements, regulatory restrictions on our operations and changes in applicable laws and regulations, the failure or any compromise of the security of our computer systems, and the occurrence of natural or man-made disasters or a disease pandemic;
• Risks relating to our Retirement and Protection segment, including changes in morbidity and mortality, accelerated amortization of deferred acquisition costs and present value of future profits, goodwill impairments, reputational risks as a result of an announced rate increase on certain in-force long-term care insurance products, medical advances such as genetic mapping research, unexpected changes in persistency rates, increases in statutory reserve requirements, and the failure of demand for long-term care insurance to increase as we expect;
• Risks relating to our International segment, including political and economic instability, foreign exchange rate fluctuations, unexpected changes in unemployment rates, deterioration in economic conditions or decline in home price appreciation, unexpected increases in mortgage insurance default rates or severity of defaults, decreases in the volume of high loan-to-value international mortgage originations, increased competition with government-owned and government-sponsored entities ("GSEs") offering mortgage insurance, changes in regulations, and growth in the global mortgage insurance market that is lower than we expect;
• Risks relating to our U.S. Mortgage Insurance segment, including increases in mortgage insurance default rates or severity of defaults, deterioration in economic conditions or a decline in home price appreciation, the influence of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and a small number of large mortgage lenders and investors, decreases in the volume of high loan-to-value mortgage originations or increases in mortgage insurance cancellations, increases in the use of alternatives to private mortgage insurance (such as simultaneous second mortgages) and reductions by lenders in the level of coverage they select, increases in the use of reinsurance with reinsurance companies affiliated with our mortgage lending customers, increased competition with government-owned and government-sponsored entities offering mortgage insurance, changes in regulations, legal actions under Real Estate Settlement Practices Act, and potential liabilities in connection with our U.S. contract underwriting services; and
• Other risks, including the possibility that in certain circumstances we will be obligated to make payments to General Electric Company ("GE") under our tax matters agreement even if our corresponding tax savings are never realized and payments could be accelerated in the event of certain changes in control, and provisions of our certificate of incorporation and by-laws and our tax matters agreement with GE may discourage takeover attempts and business combinations that stockholders might consider in their best interests.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
Overview
Our business
We are a leading financial security company in the U.S. with an expanding international presence. We have three operating segments: Retirement and Protection, International and U.S. Mortgage Insurance.
• Retirement and Protection. We offer a variety of protection, wealth accumulation, retirement income and institutional products. Protection products include: life insurance, long-term care insurance, Medicare supplement insurance and a linked-benefits product that combines long-term care insurance with universal life insurance. Additionally, we offer wellness and care coordination services for our long-term care policyholders. Our wealth accumulation and retirement income products include: fixed and variable deferred and immediate individual annuities, group variable annuities offered through retirement plans, and a variety of managed account programs, financial planning services and mutual funds. Institutional products include: funding agreements, funding agreements backing notes ("FABNs") and guaranteed investment contracts ("GICs"). For the three months ended March 31, 2008, our Retirement and Protection segment's net income and net operating income were $44 million and $162 million, respectively.
• International. In Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Japan, Korea and multiple European countries, we are a leading provider of mortgage insurance products. We are the largest private mortgage insurer in most of our international markets. We also provide mortgage insurance on a structured, or bulk, basis which aids in the sale of mortgages to the capital markets and helps lenders manage capital and risk. Additionally, we offer services, analytical tools and technology that enable lenders to operate efficiently and manage risk. We also offer payment protection coverages in multiple European countries, Canada and Mexico. Our payment protection insurance products help consumers meet specified payment obligations should they become unable to pay due to accident, illness, involuntary unemployment, disability or death. For the three months ended March 31, 2008, our International segment's net income and net operating income were $156 million and $160 million, respectively.
• U.S. Mortgage Insurance. In the U.S., we offer mortgage insurance products predominantly insuring prime-based, individually underwritten residential mortgage loans, also known as "flow" mortgage insurance. We selectively provide mortgage insurance on a structured, or bulk, basis with essentially all of our bulk writings prime-based. Additionally, we offer services, analytical tools and technology that enable lenders to operate efficiently and manage risk. For the three months ended March 31, 2008, our U.S. Mortgage Insurance segment's net loss and net operating loss were $35 million and $36 million, respectively.
We also have Corporate and Other activities which include debt financing expenses that are incurred at our holding company level, unallocated corporate income and expenses, eliminations of inter-segment transactions, the results of non-core businesses that are managed outside of our operating segments and our group life and health insurance business, which we sold on May 31, 2007. For the three months ended March 31, 2008, Corporate and Other activities had a loss from continuing operations and a net operating loss of $49 million and $42 million, respectively.
Business trends and conditions
In recent years, our business has been, and we expect will continue to be, influenced by a number of industry-wide and product-specific trends and conditions. The discussion of business trends and conditions should be read together with the trends contained in our 2007 Annual Report on Form 10-K, which described additional business trends and conditions.
General conditions and trends affecting our businesses
Volatility in credit markets. Credit markets have experienced reduced liquidity, higher volatility and widening credit spreads across asset classes over the past three quarters mainly as a result of marketplace uncertainty arising from higher defaults in sub-prime and Alt-A residential mortgage loans. In connection with this uncertainty, we believe investors and lenders have retreated from many investments in asset-backed securities including those associated with sub-prime and Alt-A residential mortgage loans, as well as types of debt investments with weak lender protections or those with limited transparency and/or complex features which hindered investor understanding. At the same time, investors shifted emphasis towards safety pushing up the demand for U.S. Treasury instruments. We believe these credit market conditions contributed to an increase in net unrealized investment losses of $1.6 billion, before tax and other offsets, during the first quarter of 2008 in our $53.0 billion investment portfolio of fixed maturity securities reflecting widening spreads in our mortgage and asset-backed securities, partially offset by the effects of a lower risk-free interest rate environment. We also believe these credit market conditions have contributed to a higher level of impairments on our investment portfolio. We expect to experience continued volatility in the valuation of our fixed maturity securities, as well as generally higher level of credit-related investment losses, including additional impairments on our investment portfolio. We believe, however, that the current credit environment also provides us with opportunities to invest in select asset classes and sectors that may enhance our investment yields over time. See "-Investments and Derivative Instruments" for additional information on our investment portfolio. In addition, a weakening in the economic environment could lead to increased credit defaults.
The current credit market conditions resulted in an unfavorable liquidity environment for issuers of financial instruments including commercial paper, long-term debt and certain asset-backed securities. Credit spreads widened for many corporate issuers of commercial paper and long-term debt resulting in less favorable financing terms. This unfavorable liquidity environment did not have a material effect on our commercial paper or long-term debt financing activities during the three months ended March 31, 2008.
See additional trends related to volatile credit markets in "-Trends and conditions affecting our segments."
Trends and conditions affecting our segments
Retirement and Protection
Wealth management (formerly referred to as managed money). Results of our wealth management business are impacted by demand for asset management products and related support services, investment performance and equity market fluctuations. The asset management industry continues to experience growth, as independent broker/dealer representatives and independent advisors transition from commission to fee-based compensation and seek to outsource the management of their client portfolios. We expect these trends to continue in the future.
Retirement income. Results for our retirement income business are affected by investment performance, interest rate levels, slope of the interest rate yield curve, net interest spreads, equity market fluctuations, mortality, policyholder lapses and new product sales. Our competitive position within many of our distribution channels and our ability to retain business depends significantly upon product features, including current and minimum crediting rates on spread-based products relative to our competitors, surrender charge periods in our annuities, as well as guaranteed features we offer in variable annuity products. We actively evaluate our competitive position based upon each of these features, and where possible, we make adjustments as appropriate to meet our target return thresholds.
We maintain our focus on our Income Distribution Series of variable annuity products. We have seen a decline in defined benefit retirement plans in favor of defined contribution plans with more of the responsibility for retirement income planning falling on the individual. Additionally, U.S. savings rates are at historical lows. We believe these factors support demand for individual and group retirement income products that provide various forms of guaranteed benefits with the opportunity to realize upside market performance. Our Income
Distribution Series provides the contractholder with the ability to receive a guaranteed minimum income stream that they cannot outlive, along with an opportunity to participate in market appreciation. However, through various techniques, these products are designed to reduce some of the risks that generally accompany traditional products with guaranteed living benefits. We are targeting individuals who are focused on building a personal portable retirement plan or are moving from the accumulation to the distribution phase of their retirement planning.
Institutional. Results in our institutional business are affected by credit markets. During 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, credit markets experienced reduced liquidity, higher volatility and widening credit spreads across asset classes. Our ability to issue funding agreements, FABNs and GICs to institutional investors is primarily dependent upon the credit markets, market perception of credit and risk-based pricing and our credit default swap levels. We view this business as opportunistic and, therefore, new origination activity may vary considerably period to period. The current credit market conditions made these types of products for large institutional investors less attractive compared to alternative products offering higher yields with more liquidity.
Certain of our FABNs and funding agreements offer contractholders the option to make periodic elections to extend their maturity date. As a result of the current credit market conditions, certain contractholders have elected not to extend their contracts. We do not believe that this trend will have a material effect on our financial position or liquidity.
In December 2007, we began issuing FABNs to retail investors and believe the current credit market conditions will not significantly impact sales to our retail investors.
Life insurance. Results in our life insurance business are impacted by sales, mortality, persistency, investment yields and statutory reserve requirements. Additionally, sales of our products and persistency of our insurance in-force are dependent on competitive product features and pricing, distribution penetration and customer service. As a result of a competitive pricing environment, we experienced lower sales and lower persistency in term life insurance policies coming out of their post-level rate period (10 and 15 years after policy issue). We expect these trends to continue, in general, as we maintain pricing discipline in the current competitive pricing environment, but we will work actively to address market segments with stronger sales potential and try to mitigate lapse risk associated with policies coming out of guaranteed premium periods.
We have also experienced a shift in focus by our distributors from term life insurance to universal life insurance products. In response to this shift in focus by our distributors, we are building our universal life insurance capabilities and maintaining a disciplined approach to term life insurance pricing.
Regulations XXX and AXXX require insurers to establish additional statutory reserves for term life insurance policies with long-term premium guarantees and certain universal life insurance policies with secondary guarantees, which increase the capital required to write these products. For term life and certain universal life insurance, we have implemented capital management actions to reduce the capital impact of these regulations. Several competitors have taken capital management actions similar to ours in response to Regulations XXX and AXXX. Recent market conditions impacting securitization transactions may impact future life insurance sales which will necessitate our need to pursue alternative structures such as reinsurance and lines of credit.
As of March 31, 2008, we had $3.5 billion of fixed and floating rate non-recourse funding obligations outstanding backing these additional statutory reserves, of which $1.7 billion were guaranteed by third-party financial guaranty insurance companies. The interest rates on these obligations are subject to rate resets triggered by negative rating agency action on the third-party financial guaranty insurance companies that guaranteed these obligations. During 2007 and 2008, the rates on those $1.7 billion of non-recourse funding obligations were contractually reset to higher rates and continue to be subject to rate resets. We do not believe that these increases will have a material impact on our consolidated financial statements. To maintain and optimize product returns, we may, at our discretion, seek alternative and potentially more costly financing terms in the future depending upon market conditions.
Long-term care insurance. Results of our long-term care insurance business are influenced by morbidity, persistency, investment yields, new product sales, expenses and reinsurance. In recent years, industry-wide first-year annualized premiums of individual long-term care insurance have either declined or grown moderately. Our sales growth over the past year reflects the breadth of our distribution and progress across multiple growth initiatives with an emphasis on broadening our product offerings. For example, we continued to experience sales growth in our linked-benefits and group long-term care insurance products. The impact of lower termination rates, in particular lapse rates, on older issued policies, some with expiring reinsurance coverage, are causing higher benefits and other changes in policy reserves, resulting in lower net operating income. In addition, the continued low interest rate environment may negatively impact our net operating income. In response to these trends, we will continue to pursue multiple growth initiatives, continue investing in case management improvements, maintain tight expense management, actively explore reinsurance and capital market solutions, execute investment strategies and, if appropriate, consider other actions to improve profitability of the block. During 2007 and 2008, we filed for state regulatory approvals for premium rate increases of between 8% and 12% on most of our block of older issued long-term care insurance policies and are currently in the process of implementing this rate increase.
International
International mortgage insurance. Results of our international mortgage insurance business are affected by changes in regulatory environments, employment and other economic and housing market trends, including interest rate trends, home price appreciation, mortgage origination volume, levels of mortgage delinquencies and movements in foreign currency exchange rates. Our international mortgage insurance business has continued to expand with favorable operating results. However, in certain European countries, we are seeing a slowdown in housing markets. In particular, we believe the economic slowdown in Spain, Ireland and the U.K. has resulted in decreased home price appreciation, as well as lower mortgage insurance origination volume, in those markets. We are also seeing slowing home price appreciation and lower mortgage insurance originations in certain regions of Canada and believe there are indications that other international housing markets may reflect similar characteristics assuming they experience an economic slowdown. We expect that our established international mortgage insurance business in Canada and Australia will continue to contribute the majority of total revenues and profits of this business, while our entry into and growth in new international markets will be gradual in nature.
As a result of the expansion of our international mortgage insurance business in recent years, as of March 31, 2008, approximately 60% of our international risk in-force had not yet reached its anticipated highest claim frequency years, which are generally between the third and seventh year of the loan. We expect our loss experience on these loans will increase as these books of business continue to mature.
Payment protection insurance. Growth of our payment protection insurance business is dependent on economic conditions, including consumer lending levels, client account penetration and the number of countries and markets we enter. Additionally, the types and mix of our products will vary based on regulatory and consumer acceptance of our products. Sales have increased in established regions outside of the U.K. and Ireland. At the same time, we saw flat levels of consumer lending and lower single-premium sales pending anticipated clarifications of related new business regulations which have resulted in a decline in sales for the U.K. and Ireland. Depending on the severity and length of these trends, we may experience additional sales declines in that market. Outside of the U.K., our payment protection insurance business continues to show growth from increased penetration of existing relationships and the addition of new distribution relationships in existing and new countries.
U.S. Mortgage Insurance
Results of our U.S. mortgage insurance business are affected by employment and other economic and housing market trends, including interest rate trends, home price trends, mortgage origination volume and product mix and the levels and aging of mortgage delinquencies including seasonal trends.
We believe that the U.S. housing market has slowed materially and we expect the decline to continue. Home price appreciation has turned negative in the majority of markets. We also expect unemployment levels to increase as gross domestic product growth slows in 2008. In addition, there has been a significant increase in delinquency and foreclosure levels especially in the adjustable rate sub-prime market, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, which we believe has resulted in an increase in housing supply levels and has further pressured home prices downward resulting in defaults not being supported by adequate levels of embedded home price appreciation to buffer or offset losses. We believe this overall pressure on the housing market is affecting the performance of our entire portfolio across all product lines, including A minus, Alt-A and adjustable rate mortgages.
The foregoing factors have contributed to an increase in paid claims and an increase in loss reserves as a result of a significant increase in delinquencies and foreclosures in our more recent books of business, particularly those of 2006 and 2007. These trends are especially evident in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada, as well as in our A minus and Alt-A products. In addition, throughout the U.S., we have experienced an increase in the average loan balance of mortgage loan delinquencies. In particular, the Great Lakes region continues to experience an economic slowdown and has seen a more pronounced weakness in its housing markets as well as a decline in home prices. We are also experiencing an increase in delinquencies and associated reserves relating to adjustable rate loans in our bulk business, particularly from the 2006 and 2007 books of business.
While over 91% of our primary risk in-force in the U.S. is considered prime, based on FICO credit scores of the underlying mortgage loans, continued low or negative home price appreciation may cause further increases in our incurred losses and related loss ratio. As of March 31, 2008, approximately 72% of our U.S. risk in-force had not yet reached its anticipated highest claim frequency years, which are generally between the third and seventh year of the loan. We expect our loss experience on these loans will increase as these books of business continue to mature in an adverse housing market environment.
Primary insurance in-force increased to $166.7 billion as of March 31, 2008, which represents a 6% increase as compared to December 31, 2007. In addition, net earned premiums have grown from $137 million for the three months ended March 31, 2007 to $183 million for the three months ended March 31, 2008. These increases in primary insurance in-force and net earned premiums reflect an increase in our flow product writings as a result of increased demand for private mortgage insurance as well as higher persistency. In spite of market liquidity constraints, we believe that the increased demand for private mortgage insurance and increased persistency will lead to growing levels of insurance in-force and related net earned premiums.
We participate in reinsurance programs in which we share portions of our premiums associated with flow insurance written on loans originated or purchased by lenders with captive reinsurance companies affiliated with these lenders in exchange for an agreed upon level of loss coverage if losses develop through specified threshold levels. For the three months ended March 31, 2008, we recorded a reinsurance recovery of $19 million where cumulative losses have exceeded the attachment points in several captive reinsurance arrangements, primarily related to the 2006 book of business. We expect to record additional reinsurance recoveries throughout 2008 under these and other captive reinsurance arrangements as incurred losses display accelerated development on our books of business, particularly those of 2006 and 2007. In the first quarter of 2008, we saw worsening and early loss trends, particularly for the 2007 book year. If these trends continue over multiple years and are combined with further declines in home price appreciation, limited borrower refinancing options and deterioration of delinquency cures, which impact both frequency and severity of claims, we could exhaust captive reinsurance for individual lenders on certain book years. Once the captive reinsurance is exhausted, we would be responsible for any additional losses incurred.
We have taken various actions to reduce our new business risk profile including underwriting guideline and pricing changes. On April 24, 2008, we announced a rate increase of approximately 20% on our flow product. We have also reduced maximum loan-to-value ratios and, in some cases, are exiting certain product lines. We believe these actions will improve our underwriting results on these and future books of business. These actions, in addition to any actions made by the GSEs or the Federal Housing Administration, could have an impact on our level of market penetration and eventual market size.
Consolidated Results of Operations
The following is a discussion of our consolidated results of operations and should be read in conjunction with "-Business trends and conditions." For a . . .
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