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| GS > SEC Filings for GS > Form 10-K on 29-Jan-2008 | All Recent SEC Filings |
29-Jan-2008
Annual Report
Introduction 47
Executive Overview 48
Business Environment 50
Certain Risk Factors That May Affect Our Business 52
Critical Accounting Policies 55
Fair Value 55
Goodwill and Identifiable Intangible Assets 61
Use of Estimates 63
Results of Operations 64
Financial Overview 64
Segment Operating Results 69
Geographic Data 76
Off-Balance-Sheet Arrangements 77
Equity Capital 78
Contractual Obligations and Commitments 83
Risk Management 85
Risk Management Structure 85
Market Risk 87
Credit Risk 91
Derivatives 92
Liquidity and Funding Risk 95
Operational Risk 102
Recent Accounting Developments 103
Goldman Sachs is a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth individuals.
Our activities are divided into three segments:
• Investment Banking. We provide a broad range of investment banking services to a diverse group of corporations, financial institutions, investment funds, governments and individuals.
• Trading and Principal Investments. We facilitate client transactions with a diverse group of corporations, financial institutions, investment funds, governments and individuals and take proprietary positions through market making in, trading of and investing in fixed income and equity products, currencies, commodities and derivatives on these products. In addition, we engage in market-making and specialist activities on equities and options exchanges and clear client transactions on major stock, options and futures exchanges worldwide. In connection with our merchant banking and other investing activities, we make principal investments directly and through funds that we raise and manage.
• Asset Management and Securities Services. We provide investment advisory and financial planning services and offer investment products (primarily through separately managed accounts and commingled vehicles, such as mutual funds and private investment funds) across all major asset classes to a diverse group of institutions and individuals worldwide and provide prime brokerage services, financing services and securities lending services to institutional clients, including hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and foundations, and to high-net-worth individuals worldwide.
Unless specifically stated otherwise, all references to 2007, 2006 and 2005 refer to our fiscal years ended, or the dates, as the context requires, November 30, 2007, November 24, 2006 and November 25, 2005, respectively.
When we use the terms "Goldman Sachs," "we," "us" and "our," we mean The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Group Inc.), a Delaware corporation, and its consolidated subsidiaries. References herein to the Annual Report on Form 10-K are to our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2007.
In this discussion, we have included statements that may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts but instead represent only our beliefs regarding future events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside our control. These statements include statements other than historical information or statements of current condition and may relate to our future plans and objectives and results, among other things, and may also include statements about the objectives and effectiveness of our risk management and liquidity policies, statements about trends in or growth opportunities for our businesses and statements about our investment banking transaction backlog. By identifying these statements for you in this manner, we are alerting you to the possibility that our actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results and financial condition indicated in these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause our actual results and financial condition to differ from those indicated in these forward-looking statements include, among others, those discussed below under "- Certain Risk Factors That May Affect Our Business" as well as "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of the Annual Report on Form 10-K and "Cautionary Statement Pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995" in Part I, Item 1 of the Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Our diluted earnings per common share were $24.73 for 2007 compared with $19.69 for 2006. During 2007, we achieved record results in the Americas, Europe and Asia, and derived over one-half of our pre-tax earnings outside of the Americas. Return on average tangible common shareholders' equity (1) was 38.2% and return on average common shareholders' equity was 32.7% for 2007. Book value per common share increased 25% to $90.43 at year end. During 2007, we repurchased 41.2 million shares of our common stock for a total cost of $8.96 billion.
In 2007, we generated record diluted earnings per common share, which exceeded the prior year record results by 26%. Each of our three segments produced record net revenues. The increase in Trading and Principal Investments reflected higher net revenues in Equities, Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) and Principal Investments. Net revenues in Equities increased 33% compared with 2006, reflecting significantly higher net revenues in both our customer franchise businesses and principal strategies. During 2007, Equities operated in an environment characterized by strong customer-driven activity, generally higher equity prices and higher levels of volatility, particularly during the second half of the year. The increase in FICC reflected significantly higher net revenues in currencies and interest rate products. In addition, net revenues in mortgages were higher despite a significant deterioration in the mortgage market throughout the year, while net revenues in credit products were strong, but slightly lower compared with 2006. Credit products included substantial gains from equity investments, including a gain of approximately $900 million related to the disposition of Horizon Wind Energy L.L.C., as well as a loss of approximately $1 billion, net of hedges, related to non-investment-grade credit origination activities. During 2007, FICC operated in an environment generally characterized by strong customer-driven activity and favorable market opportunities. However, during the year, the mortgage market experienced significant deterioration and, in the second half of the year, the broader credit markets were characterized by wider spreads and reduced levels of liquidity. We continued to capitalize on trading and investing opportunities for our clients and ourselves and, accordingly, our market risk increased, particularly in interest rate and equity products. In addition, our total assets surpassed $1 trillion during the year, as we grew our balance sheet in order to support these opportunities, as well as to support increased activity in Securities Services. The increase in Principal Investments reflected strong results in both corporate and real estate investing.
The increase in Investment Banking reflected a 64% increase in Financial Advisory net revenues and a strong performance in our Underwriting business. The increase in Financial Advisory primarily reflected growth in industry-wide completed mergers and acquisitions. The increase in Underwriting reflected higher net revenues in debt underwriting, as leveraged finance activity was strong during the first half of our fiscal year, while net revenues in equity underwriting were strong but essentially unchanged from 2006. Our investment banking transaction backlog at the end of 2007 was higher than it was at the end of 2006. (2)
Net revenues in Asset Management and Securities Services also increased. The increase in Securities Services primarily reflected significant growth in global customer balances. The increase in Asset Management reflected significantly higher asset management fees, partially offset by significantly lower incentive fees. During the year, assets under management increased $192 billion, or 28%, to a record $868 billion, including net inflows of $161 billion.
(1) Return on average tangible common shareholders' equity (ROTE) is computed by dividing net earnings applicable to common shareholders by average monthly tangible common shareholders' equity. See "- Results of Operations - Financial Overview" below for further information regarding our calculation of ROTE.
(2) Our investment banking transaction backlog represents an estimate of our future net revenues from investment banking transactions where we believe that future revenue realization is more likely than not.
In 2008, we will remain focused on our clients, geographic expansion and the importance of effective risk management. We continue to see opportunities for growth in the businesses and geographic areas in which we operate and, in particular, we believe continued expansion of the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, as well as those of the Middle East, will offer opportunities for us to increase our presence in those markets.
Though we generated particularly strong results in 2007, our business, by its nature, does not produce predictable earnings. Our results in any given period can be materially affected by conditions in global financial markets and economic conditions generally. For a further discussion of the factors that may affect our future operating results, see "- Certain Risk Factors That May Affect Our Business" below as well as "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of the Annual Report on Form 10-K.
As an investment banking, securities and investment management firm, our businesses are materially affected by conditions in the financial markets and economic conditions generally, both in the United States and elsewhere around the world. A favorable business environment is generally characterized by, among other factors, high global gross domestic product growth, stable geopolitical conditions, transparent, liquid and efficient capital markets, low inflation, high business and investor confidence and strong business earnings. These factors provide a positive climate for our investment banking activities, for many of our trading and investing businesses and for wealth creation, which contributes to growth in our asset management business. During the first half of 2007, global economic growth was generally solid, inflation remained contained, global equity markets rose and corporate activity levels were strong. However, during the second half of 2007, significant weakness and volatility in global credit markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, spread to broader financial markets and began to affect global economic growth. For a further discussion of how market conditions can affect our businesses, see "- Certain Risk Factors That May Affect Our Business" below as well as "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of the Annual Report on Form 10-K. A further discussion of the business environment in 2007 is set forth below.
Global. Growth in the global economy slowed over the course of 2007. Although the pace of economic growth was solid through the beginning of our third fiscal quarter, global growth in the latter part of our fiscal year was impacted by volatility in the credit markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, and accelerated weakness in the U.S. housing market. Fixed income and equity markets experienced high volatility, particularly during the second half of the year. The U.S. mortgage market experienced significant deterioration throughout the year, particularly in subprime loans and securities. The broader global credit markets were characterized by significant weakness in the second half of the year, which was evident in the significant dislocation in money market rates in the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds target rate towards the end of our fiscal year, while central banks in the Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan and China all raised rates during the year. Oil prices rose significantly during our fiscal year and, in the currency markets, the U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies, particularly against the Euro and the British pound. Corporate activity was generally strong during our fiscal year, reflecting significant growth in mergers and acquisitions and equity underwritings, as well as strength in leveraged finance during the first half of our fiscal year.
United States. Real gross domestic product growth in the U.S. economy slowed to an estimated 2.2% in calendar year 2007, down from 2.9% in 2006. While economic growth was generally solid during the first nine months of our fiscal year, activity appeared to decelerate sharply during the fourth quarter. Much of the slowdown was attributable to the housing market, as sales of new and existing homes and residential real estate investment declined, as well as to the weakness in credit markets. Growth in industrial production slowed from 2006 levels, reflecting reduced growth in domestic demand, partially offset by stronger growth in net exports. Although business confidence remained fairly strong, consumer confidence declined over the course of the year. Growth in consumer expenditure was strong in the first quarter but declined thereafter, as concerns about the housing market intensified and oil prices rose. The unemployment rate rose during the second half of our fiscal year and ended the year higher. The rate of inflation increased sharply over our fiscal year, as energy prices rose significantly. Measures of core inflation, while slowing from 2006 levels, accelerated towards the end of the year. The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced its federal funds target rate by a total of 75 basis points to 4.50% during our fourth quarter, the first reductions since 2003. Beginning in August, the U.S. Federal Reserve also took other measures to improve liquidity in credit markets. Although the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield rose during the first half of our fiscal year, it subsequently declined as credit concerns took hold, and ended the year 58 basis points lower at 3.97%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index ended our fiscal year higher by 9%, 6% and 8%, respectively.
Europe. Real gross domestic product growth in the Eurozone economies slowed to an estimated 2.7% in calendar year 2007, down from 2.9% in 2006. Industrial production and fixed investment slowed as the year progressed, while growth in consumer expenditure was weak throughout the year. Surveys of business and consumer confidence declined. However, the labor market strengthened, as evidenced by a decline in the unemployment rate. Measures of core inflation increased during the year. The European Central Bank (ECB) continued to raise interest rates, increasing its main refinancing operations rate by a total of 75 basis points to 4.00% by the end of June. The ECB left the rate unchanged for the rest of our fiscal year, but engaged in measures to improve liquidity conditions in the last four months of the year. In the United Kingdom, real gross domestic product rose by an estimated 3.1% for calendar year 2007, up from 2.9% in 2006, but showed signs of slowing late in the year due to credit market concerns and a slowdown in the U.K. housing market. Measures of inflation remained elevated during the year. The Bank of England increased interest rates, raising its official bank rate by a total of 75 basis points to 5.75%. Long-term bond yields in both the Eurozone and the U.K. ended the year higher. The Euro and British pound appreciated by 11% and 7%, respectively, against the U.S. dollar during our fiscal year. Major European equity markets ended our fiscal year higher.
Asia. In Japan, real gross domestic product growth slowed to an estimated 1.9% in calendar year 2007 from 2.4% in 2006. Measures of investment activity in the housing sector and growth in consumption declined during the year. Export growth remained solid but showed signs of deterioration towards year end as the environment outside of Japan worsened. The rate of inflation remained near zero percent during the year. The Bank of Japan raised its target overnight call rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive year, bringing it to 0.50%, while the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds declined slightly during our fiscal year. The yen appreciated by 4% against the U.S. dollar. The Nikkei 225 Index rose during the first eight months of our fiscal year but declined significantly in August, and ended our fiscal year essentially unchanged.
In China, real gross domestic product growth accelerated to an estimated 11.4% in calendar year 2007 from 11.1% in 2006, with continued strength in exports, as demonstrated by China's large and growing current account surplus and foreign exchange reserves. Industrial production accelerated during the year, while domestic demand softened but remained solid. The rate of inflation increased, particularly during the second half of the year. The People's Bank of China raised its one-year benchmark lending rate by a total of 117 basis points to 7.29% and took additional measures to reduce liquidity in the financial system. The government continued to allow the steady appreciation of its currency, which ended our fiscal year nearly 6% higher against the U.S. dollar. Elsewhere in Asia, real gross domestic product growth in India slowed to an estimated 8.7% in calendar year 2007 from 9.4% in 2006, as its currency strengthened and the central bank tightened monetary policy. The rate of wholesale inflation fell, but the rate of consumer price inflation remained elevated. Other currencies in the region also generally appreciated against the U.S. dollar. Equity markets rose sharply across the region, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 138%, and markets in Hong Kong, India and South Korea ending the year significantly higher.
Other Markets. Real gross domestic product in Brazil rose by an estimated 5.4% in calendar year 2007, supported by strong capital inflows, strong demand and rising prices in commodities, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The central bank reduced interest rates even as the rate of inflation rose. In Russia, real gross domestic product rose by an estimated 7.3% in calendar year 2007, supported by strong household consumption and increased capital investment, particularly in the first half of the year. The rate of inflation rose sharply in the latter part of the year. Brazilian and Russian equity prices ended our fiscal year significantly higher.
We face a variety of risks that are substantial and inherent in our businesses, including market, liquidity, credit, operational, legal and regulatory risks. For a discussion of how management seeks to manage some of these risks, see "- Risk Management" below. A summary of the more important factors that could affect our business follows below. For a further discussion of these and other important factors that could affect our business, see "Risk Factors" in Part I, Item 1A of the Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Market Conditions and Market Risk. Our businesses are materially affected by conditions in the global financial markets and economic conditions generally, and these conditions may change suddenly and dramatically. A favorable business environment is generally characterized by, among other factors, high global gross domestic product growth, stable geopolitical conditions, transparent, liquid and efficient capital markets, low inflation, high business and investor confidence, and strong business earnings. Unfavorable or uncertain economic and market conditions, which can be caused by: outbreaks of hostilities or other geopolitical instability; declines in economic growth, business activity or investor or business confidence; limitations on the availability or increases in the cost of credit and capital; increases in inflation, interest rates, exchange rate volatility, default rates or the price of basic commodities; corporate, political or other scandals that reduce investor confidence in capital markets; natural disasters or pandemics; or a combination of these or other factors, have adversely affected, and may in the future adversely affect, our business and profitability in many ways, including the following:
• Increasing or high interest rates and/or widening credit spreads, especially if such changes are rapid, may create a less favorable environment for certain of our businesses, and may affect the fair value of financial instruments that we issue or hold. For example, beginning in the second half of 2007, difficulties in the mortgage and broader credit markets resulted in a relatively sudden and substantial decrease in the availability of credit and credit spreads widened significantly, affecting volatility and liquidity in the debt and equity markets.
• We have been committing increasing amounts of capital in many of our businesses and generally maintain large trading, specialist and investing positions. Market fluctuations and volatility may adversely affect the value of those positions or may reduce our willingness to enter into new transactions. Conversely, certain of our trading businesses depend on market volatility to provide trading and arbitrage opportunities, and decreases in volatility may reduce these opportunities and adversely affect the results of these businesses.
• Increases in interest rates or credit spreads, as well as limitations on the availability of credit, can affect our ability to borrow on a secured or unsecured basis, which may adversely affect our liquidity and results of operations. We seek to finance our less liquid assets on a secured basis and disruptions in the credit markets are likely to make it harder and more expensive to fund these assets. In difficult credit markets, we may be forced to fund our operations at a higher cost or we may be unable to raise as much funding as we need to support our business activities. This could cause us to curtail our business activities and could increase our cost of funding, both of which could reduce our profitability.
• Industry-wide declines in the size and number of underwritings and mergers and acquisitions may have an adverse effect on our revenues and, because we may be unable to reduce expenses correspondingly, our profit margins. Our clients engaging in mergers and acquisitions often rely on access to the secured and unsecured credit markets to finance their transactions. The lack of available credit or increased cost of credit may adversely affect the size, volume and timing of our clients' merger and acquisition transactions - particularly large transactions - and adversely affect our financial advisory and underwriting businesses.
• Reductions in the level of the equity markets or increases in interest rates tend to reduce the value of our clients' portfolios, which in turn may reduce the fees we earn for managing assets.
Increases in interest rates or attractive conditions in other investments could cause our clients to transfer their assets out of our funds or other products. Even in the absence of uncertain or unfavorable economic or market conditions, investment performance by our asset management business below the performance of benchmarks or competitors could result in a decline in assets under management and in the incentive and management fees we receive and might make it more difficult to attract new investors.
• Concentration of risk increases the potential for significant losses in our market-making, proprietary trading and investing, block trading, merchant banking, underwriting and lending businesses. This risk may increase to the extent we expand our proprietary trading and investing businesses or commit capital to facilitate customer-driven business.
• An increase in market volatility increases our measured risk, which might cause us to reduce our proprietary positions or to reduce certain of our business activities. In such circumstances, we may not be able to reduce our positions or our exposure in a timely, cost-effective way or in a manner sufficient to offset the increase in measured risk.
• The volume of transactions that we execute for our clients and as a specialist or market maker may decline, which would reduce the revenues we receive from commissions and spreads. In our specialist businesses, we are obligated by stock exchange rules to maintain an orderly market, including by purchasing shares in a declining market. This may result in trading losses and an increased need for liquidity. Weakness in global equity markets and the trading of securities in multiple markets and on multiple exchanges could adversely impact our trading businesses and impair the value of our goodwill and identifiable intangible assets.
Liquidity Risk. Liquidity is essential to our businesses. Our liquidity could be impaired by an inability to access secured and/or unsecured debt markets, an inability to access funds from our subsidiaries, an inability to sell assets or redeem our investments, or unforeseen outflows of cash or collateral. This situation may arise due to circumstances that we may be unable to control, such as a general market disruption or an operational problem that affects third parties or us, or even by the perception among market participants that we are experiencing greater liquidity risk. The financial instruments that we hold and the contracts to which we are a party are increasingly complex, as we employ structured products to benefit our clients and ourselves, and these complex structured products often do not have readily available markets to access in times of liquidity stress. Growth of our proprietary investing activities may lead to situations where the holdings from these activities represent a significant portion of specific markets, which could restrict liquidity for our positions. Further, our ability to sell assets may be impaired if other market . . .
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